Insights in the water-energy-food nexus in the

Nile Basin with the new Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model

Wil N.M. van der Krogt, Henk J.M. Ogink

For International Conference Sustainability in the Water-Energy-Food Nexus, 19-20 May 2014, Bonn

Eastern Nile basin: Nile River basin without the Equatorial Lake basin •Nile River length: 6,650 Km •EN Basin area : 1,8 million km2 •Population : 149 million •Located in 4 countries:

South Sudan, Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt

•Divided into 4 sub-basins: Baro-Akobo-Sobat-White Nile, Abay-Blue Nile, Tekeze-Setit-Atbara and Main Nile

•Water use: irrigation, DMI, hydro-power, navigation, environment

•Infra-structure: dams, inter-basin transfer, by-pass canals. hydro-power stations

Eastern Nile

characteristics

Mean Water Discharge

2840 m3/s

Main Nile

100%

Atbara

13%

Blue Nile

55%

White Nile

32%

According to the report “Cooperative Regional Assessment for Watershed Management, Transboundary analysis, Country report, Egypt, July 2006”, mean discharge is 2800 m3/s, where 56% is contributed by the Blue Nile, 30% by the White Nile and 14% by the Atbara River.

Eastern Nile characteristics: discharge

Eastern Nile characteristics: elevation

Ethiopia, South Sudan

Sudan

Egypt

Irrigation potential

Hydro-power potential

Options for the Abay Blue Nile reservoir cascades: •Renaissance FSL 640 : under construction •Various cascade combinations of Karadobi, Beko Abo Low / High, Lower / Upper Mandaya and Renaissance FSL 640 / 620 dams

Blue Nile hydro-power potential (Et)

Under construction

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Why balance: the Water Balancing Act

Demand • Population growth • Increased welfare • Inefficient use

Supply • Quantity (Natural Scarcity,

Groundwater Depletion)

• Quality Degradation • Cost of Options

Nile

Nile on short / long term

Squeezing the Nile

Therefore:

A need for a joint understanding of current and future availability and impacts of interventions in the water system on food and energy

Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model

1. It has been developed at ENTRO, Addis Ababa, a joint cooperation of the 4 EN countries

2. It has been based on data from the ENTRO library and public domain

3. It is the latest and presently most complete water balance model of the Eastern Nile (EN), covering all users and infrastructure

4. It uses unique hydrological time series with length of 103 years (1900-2002)

Training at ENTRO RIBASIM7 ENTRO library

1 - Joint development through ENTRO

ENTRO – the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office

Academics from Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan and Egypt

Distributed through ENTRO to universities in these four countries: Cairo Univ., Univ. of Khartoum, Addis Ababa Univ. and Univ. of Juba

Applied in follow up studies, currently in Atbara Dam Complex Sudan, and Enhanced WRM Study Egypt.

2 - Model is public domain (via ENTRO)

The model compiles data available from various studies, available in the ENTRO library, and public domain data (internet)

The model, including all data, can be requested at ENTRO.

site: http://entroportal.nilebasin.org

email: entro@nilebasin.org

The model is built for the generic modeling software RIBASIM (River Basin Simulation Model). The software is free use for education and research purposes and can be requested at Deltares.

site: http://www.deltares.nl

email: Ribasim.info@deltares.nl

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ENWSM covers the catchments of the main EN basins us High Aswan Dam (HAD) incl. Lake Nasser.

Nile River

basin

3 - Complete Water Balance

Model

All current and planned water use and infrastructure, among others:

•162 sub-catchments

•111 dams: 11 existing and 100 under construction

•114 Irrigation areas: 18 existing and 96 potential

•3 potential wetland by-passes

•Lakes, swamps, domestic water use etc.

Complete EN network schematization for ENWSM (RIBASIM7) with map

3 - Complete Water Balance Model

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4 - Unique hydrological time series: 103 years of monthly

flows

Verification case: Nile natural flow, no structures and no users, check recorded and simulated river flows at the 42 recording stations (1900-2002)

Malakal recording station

Simulated flow (m3/s) Monitored flow (m3/s)

12/7/199512/9/198712/11/197912/13/197112/15/196312/17/195512/19/194712/21/193912/23/193112/25/192312/27/191512/29/1907

2,400

2,300

2,200

2,100

2,000

1,900

1,800

1,700

1,600

1,500

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

Aswan recording station (inflow Lake Nasser)

Simulated flow (m3/s) Monitored flow (m3/s)

12/7/199512/9/198712/11/197912/13/197112/15/196312/17/195512/19/194712/21/193912/23/193112/25/192312/27/191512/29/1907

12,500

12,000

11,500

11,000

10,500

10,000

9,500

9,000

8,500

8,000

7,500

7,000

6,500

6,000

5,500

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Avg annual natural flow 86.1 Bcm

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Construction of new Renaissance dam

3 - Illustrations of W-E-F impacts of interventions

Heightening of existing Roseires dam

Development of new Kenana irr. Construction of new Beles dam

and Dinder and Beles irr and connection with Lake Tana

Various combinations of new Renaissance dam with Beko Abo, Mendaya and Karadobi hydro-power dams

Construction of new Atbara Dams Complex (Rumela-Burdana dams)

Others: •alternative crop plan •climate change

Simulation cases in the illustrative analysis

Case Combination of measures

S000 No management actions. Base line, current condition.

S001 •Renaissance640

•Beles dam + Dinder and Beles irr. (Et)

•High Roseires + Kenana irr. (Su)

S002 •Abbay dams cascade A of Karadobi + Beko Abo Low + Mandaya + Renaissance620.

•Beles dam + Dinder and Beles irr. (Et)

•High Roseires + Kenana irr. (Su)

S003 •Abbay dams cascade B of Karadobi - Beko Abo Low - Madaya Upper - Renaissance dam640

•Beles dam + Dinder and Beles irr. (Et)

•High Roseires + Kenana irr. (Su)

S004 •Abbay dams cascade C of Beko Abo High (1062) + Mandaya + Renaissance620

•Beles dam + Dinder and Beles irr. (Et)

•High Roseires + Kenana irr. (Su)

S005 •Abbay dams cascade D of Beko Abo High (1062) + Mandaya Upper + Renaissance640

•Beles dam + Dinder and Beles irr. (Et)

•High Roseires + Kenana irr. (Su)

S006= S001+alt. crop plan, S007= S001+Climate change

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Results: change

in flow regime

Compared to present (S000): •Monthly flow variation flattened out almost completely: beneficial for Sudan irrigation •Inflow to Lake Nasser reduces by about 9-11% •Sediment inflow to Roseires reduced

Border ET-Su

Results: change in Lake Nasser water level

140.0

145.0

150.0

155.0

160.0

165.0

170.0

175.0

180.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

S000 S001 S007

Lake Nasser water level

Compared to present (S000): •Average monthly level of Lake Nasser reduces, •Toshka spilling reduces, •Lake Nasser open water evaporation losses reduces by 31% (S001), •Toshka pumping energy consumption increases by 26% (S001)

Results energy: change in production

Total energy production (GWh) per country

Compared to present (S000): •Overall energy production increases by 75-190% •Energy production in Sudan increases by 14-18% •Power production at Aswan reduces by 13-15%

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Results water : change in open water evaporation

Average annual open water evaporation (Mcm) from reservoirs

Compared to present (S000): •Lake Nasser open water evaporation losses reduces, •Open water evaporation in Sudan and Ethiopia increases •Overall open water evaporation the same (S001) and slight increase cascade cases (S002-5)

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Results food: Irr and DMI water use

Total water use per country

Sudan water use

Total water use for irr. and pws per country (Mcm)

0.0

10000.0

20000.0

30000.0

40000.0

50000.0

60000.0

S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006 S007

Ethiopia Sudan Egypt South Sudan

Water use of Sudan (Mcm)

0.0

5000.0

10000.0

15000.0

20000.0

25000.0

S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006 S007

Evap. from reservoirs Irr. and pws use

Atbara Dam Complex sedimentation and operation study

Example follow-up use of ENWSM

Atbara

Tekeze

Setit

Atbara

Atbara

Conclusions

• The ENWSM can be used to explore W-E-F interaction in Ethiopia, Sudan, South-Sudan and Egypt for various scenarios and interventions

• Illustrations show that new dams in Ethiopia benefit Ethiopia’s power production but as well increases the benefits of Sudan’s irrigation water use from the regulated flow.

• Strong points of the model are the unique hydrology (103 years) and the completeness of infrastructure and water use

• Additionally, the joint development by experts from the basin countries at ENTRO and the public availability of the model (via ENTRO) has contributed to making the model a shared reference for future analysis, as is already the case for Egypt and Sudan (Atbara dams complex study)

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Thanks

http://shebapost.com/sites/default/files/field/image/millennium_dam.jpg

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam