institutional equity research hindustan unilever ltd...

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. (“PHILLIPCAP”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer.

Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUVR IN)

Resilient performance in tough environment

INDIA | FMCG | Quarterly Update

21 July 2020

Top takeaways from Q1FY21 HUL’s organic volume decline of 8% was better than consensus expectations of low teen

volume decline. However, accounting for integration of GSK consumer, revenue was up 4% YoY. Subdued operating performance of domestic business was owing to 1) lockdown related restrictions – which curtailed free movement of good and had to face lot of difficulties in supplying goods to distributors 2) Out of home consumption (Ice Creams, Water purifiers, B2B professional) and discretionary personal care (Skin care, colour cosmetics) face the maximum brunt, as consumers continued to remain indoors 3) stress in urban distribution owing to partial closure of MT. On the silver lining, management highlighted HUL has gained market share across c80% of the portfolio which is commendable. Management stated that for the time being, it has shut of its 3 plants owing to rising COVID -19 cases ; however it remains confident of meeting consumer demand as remainder plants are fungible and are not operating at full capacity

Health, Hygiene and nutrition portfolio (80% of sales) grew 6% yoy, while out of home (5% of sales) and discretionary personal care portfolio (c15% of sales) was down 69/45% YoY respectively on account of supply chain constraints and lower consumer offtake. Management highlighted, although on sequential monthly basis, consumer demand is recovering ; however full demand recovery still remains uncertain as imposition of sporadic lockdown in selected cities may continue weigh on demand. Moreover, it further added 2QFY21 will help us to gauge true underlying consumer demand. HUL expects rural demand to remain steady owing to normal monsoon, increase in MNREGA allocation and better crop harvest

Gross margin declined c235bps YoY owing to subdued performance of personal care business (ex-skin cleansing) and inflationary pressure seen in PFAD, SMP and Tea. Ebitda margins decline was controlled to 110bps (c170bps on like to like basis) as it sharply cut down ad spends (c400bps YoY) and rationalized trade spends as well. However, Other expenses were higher (up 20% YoY) on back of higher CSR spends, negative operating leverage. Mgmt stated that it plans to take pricing correction in coming qtrs in HPC portfolio given sharp fall in crude oil price; whereas at the same time it will take judicious price hikes in tea portfolio, given RM headwinds.

Adjusted income grew 7% YoY despite subdued operating performance owing to favourable income tax rates. Income tax rate declined to 21% as it had one off benefits worth Rs 960 mn relating to prior period adjustments.

Short term blip in structural story: We believe HUL has right matrix to sail through such challenging times – (1) Broad product portfolio (2) Focus on premiumization through LUPs, (3) improving distribution means through digital means. We maintain High-conviction BUY with a target of Rs 2,600 (55x Sept-22 EPS) vs Rs 2,450 (55x FY22 EPS) earlier on back of TINA and further strengthening of competitive positioning. Key risks: 1) integration related challenges for the GSK Consumer merger and 2) Consumer demand not picking even from 2HFY21 onwards.

BUY (Maintain) CMP Rs 2,319 TARGET Rs 2,600 (12%) COMPANY DATA

O/S SHARES (MN) : 2348

MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 5438

MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 72.3

52 - WK HI/LO (RS) : 2614 / 1656

LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 226.5

PAR VALUE (RS) : 1

SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, %

Jun 20 Mar 20 Dec 19

PROMOTERS : 61.9 67.2 67.2

FII / NRI : 15.0 12.2 12.4

FI / MF : 8.2 6.6 6.7

NON PRO : 3.3 2.6 2.4

PUBLIC & OTHERS : 11.7 11.4 11.4

KEY FINANCIALS

Rs mn FY21E FY22E FY23E

Net Sales 4,30,662 5,00,209 5,62,714

EBIDTA 1,18,420 1,42,526 1,63,037

Net Profit 85,071 1,02,688 1,17,773

EPS, Rs 36.2 43.7 50.1

PER, x 64.1 53.1 46.3

EV/EBIDTA, x 45.1 37.2 32.3

P/BV, x 14.0 13.3 12.6 ROE, % 21.8 25.0 27.1

CHANGE IN ESTIMATES

__Revised Est. __ __% Revision__

Rs bn FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E

Revenue 4,30,662 5,00,209 0% 0%

EBITDA 1,18,420 1,42,526 -1% 0%

Core PAT 85,071 1,02,688 -1% -1%

EPS (Rs) 36 44 -1% -1% Vishal Gutka, Research Analyst (+ 9122 6246 4118) [email protected] Preeyam Tolia, Research Associate (+ 9122 6246 4129) [email protected]

(Rs mn) 1QFY21 1QFY20 yoy 4QFY20 qoq

Net Sales 1,04,060 99,840 4.2 88,850 17.1

EBITDA 26,440 26,470 (0.1) 20,650 28.0

Adj PAT 18,730 17,510 7.0 14,640 27.9

Page | 2 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD QUARTERLY UPDATE

Financial snapshot

Rs mn 1QFY20 1QFY21 % YoY Comment

Volume gr (%) 5.0 -8.0

LTL sales declined 7% owing to supply chain disruption,

subdued performance in OOH and discretionary category

and closure of MT outlets Net Sales 99,840 1,04,060 4.2%

Other operating income 1,300 1,540 18.5%

Total Expenses (74,670) (79,160) 6.0% Sales of GSK’s OTC portfolio led to increase in OOI

EBITDA 26,470 26,440 -0.1%

EBITDA margin (%) 26.5 25.4 -110bps

Interest (240) (290) 20.8%

Depreciation (2,140) (2,420) 13.1%

Other income 1,470 1,560 6.1%

PBT 25,560 25,290 -1.1%

Tax (8,080) (5,300) -34.4%

Tax rate (%) 31.6 21.0 -1065bps

Exceptional Items 70 (1,180)

Reported PAT 17,550 18,810 7.2%

Adj. PAT 17,510 18,730 7.0%

EPS 7.5 8.7 16.3%

Cost Details 1QFY20 1QFY21 % YoY

Raw Materials 46,480 50,870 9.4%

As % of Sales 46.6 48.9 233bps

Staff costs 4,520 5,920 31.0% Integration of GSK employees

As % of Sales 4.5 5.7 116bps

Advertising expense 11,610 7,970 -31.4%

As % of Sales 11.6 7.7 -397bps

Other expenses 12,060 14,400 19.4% M&A and integration cost, CSR resulted into higher other

expnses As % of Sales 12.1 13.8 176bps

Gross profit 53,360 53,190 -0.3% Increase in RM and negative mix resulted in gross margin

decline Gross margin 53.4 51.1 -233bps

Source Company, PhillipCapital India Research



Segment operating performance

Rs mn Q1FY20 Q1FY21 yoy (%)

Segmental Revenue (Rs mn)

Home Care 34,650 33,920 -2.1%

Personal Care 45,890 40,390 -12.0%

Foods & Refreshments 19,500 29,580 51.7%

Others 1,100 1,710 55.5%

Total 1,01,140 1,05,600 4.4%

Segment EBIT (Rs mn)

Home Care 6,990 6,370 -8.9%

Personal Care 13,580 11,340 -16.5%

Foods & Refreshments 3,790 5,820 53.6%

Others 20 490 2350.0%

Total 24,380 24,020 -1.5%

Segment EBIT margins (%)

Home Care 20.2 18.8 -139bps

Personal Care 29.6 28.1 -152bps

Foods & Refreshments 19.4 19.7 24bps

Others 1.8 28.7 2684bps

EBIT Margins 24.1 22.7 -136bps

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research

COVID-19 impact seen across categories

Discretionary and OOH (ex-Foods) consumption was impacted the most

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research

10.0

7.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

-7.0 -8.0 -10

-8-6-4-202468

1012

3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21

Volume (%)

26.0 21.1

17.7 19.7

41.0

2.7

(8.9) -20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50


Home care - Ebit gr (%)

15.7

8.3 12.8

15.6

7.5

(22.5)

(16.5)

-28-24-20-16-12

-8-4048

121620


Beauty & Personal - Ebit gr (%) 51.7

20.1 15.5

(0.3)

28.0

(35.0)

53.6

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Food & Refreshment - Ebit gr (%)



Con call highlights

General outlook

- July saw initial signs of stress as virus pickup, resulted into gradual lockdown in several parts of the country which further led to uncertainty in demand and supply chain disruption

- Initially, HUL was operating only with 20% SKUs in month of April-2020 to overcome supply chain disruptions, currently it is operating at 50% of pre-covid SKUs and plans to reach 80% SKUs as supply chain and demand situation normalises and plans to permanently curtail balance 20% of SKU with an intent to improve profitability

- Raw materials – have seen price of SMP softening; whereas price of PFAD continues to remain firm. Mgmt highlighted for tea business, it will take judicious price hikes (despite tea price moving up 30-40% YoY) and plans to extracts efficiencies from other key line items in order hold on to profitability. Moreover, it looks from the lens of portfolio approach at category /company level

Homecare: Witnessed strong growth in household care and fabric wash (mass and premium portfolio), purifier impacted on account of discretionary nature of the category (cut down in spends) and closure of shops. Personal care:

- COVID proof portfolio: Soaps, saw strong double digit growth driven by Lifebuoy and Hamam, whereas demand for sanitisers and handwash witnessed multi fold demand upsurge, in order to cope up with demand HUL has increased the production capacity by 100x (sanitisers)and 5x (handwash). Mgt expects demand for sanitisers to subside once vaccine is launched, however demand for pocket sanitiser to remain strong as consumers start moving out.

- Discretionary: Skin care, Deos and colors impacted on account of lower occasion of socialising and doing out, however it is witnessing early green shoots in skin care as consumers started going out and opening of malls & MT outlets (MT has separate cosmetic section). Deos and colors to witnessed prolonged recovery as uncertainty prevails

- Impact of Glow & Lovely (earlier Fair & Lovely) name: Given successful relaunch (changed communication from fair skin to HD Glow) of Fair & Lovely one year back, led to gain in market share, Mgt does not see much impact of the name change as it has strong plans in place for relaunch.

Foods and refreshment:

- Saw strong double digit growth across food and Beverage portfolio (Jams, ketchups, coffee and tea) as consumption shift to in-home

- Out of home consumption category (vending and Ice cream) impacted the most.



Financials Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Net sales 3,82,730 4,30,662 5,00,209 5,62,714 Growth, % 2 13 16 12 Other operating income 5,120 8,838 9,722 10,694 Total income 3,87,850 4,39,500 5,09,931 5,73,408 Raw material expenses -1,77,930 -1,97,502 -2,25,153 -2,52,171 Employee expenses -16,910 -18,939 -21,780 -24,176 Other Operating expenses -97,010 -1,04,638 -1,20,472 -1,34,025 EBITDA (Core) 96,000 1,18,420 1,42,526 1,63,037 Growth, % 6.2 23.4 20.4 14.4 Margin, % 25.1 27.5 28.5 29.0 Depreciation -9,380 -12,189 -13,855 -15,560 EBIT 86,620 1,06,231 1,28,670 1,47,476 Growth, % 6.0 22.6 21.1 14.6 Margin, % 22.6 24.7 25.7 26.2 Interest paid -1,060 -1,166 -1,283 -1,411 Other Income 7,330 9,896 11,380 13,087 Non-recurring Items -1,970 0 0 0 Pre-tax profit 90,920 1,14,960 1,38,768 1,59,152 Tax provided -23,540 -29,890 -36,080 -41,380 Profit after tax 67,380 85,071 1,02,688 1,17,773 Growth, % 10.8 22.7 20.7 14.7 Net Profit (adjusted) 67,380 85,071 1,02,688 1,17,773 Unadj. shares (m) 2,160 2,349 2,349 2,349 Wtd avg shares (m) 2,160 2,349 2,349 2,349

Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Cash & bank 50,170 98,648 1,31,868 1,69,127 Marketable securities at cost 12,480 12,480 12,480 12,480 Debtors 10,460 11,770 13,671 15,379 Inventory 26,360 28,317 32,890 37,000 Other current assets 19,610 19,610 19,610 19,610 Total current assets 1,19,080 1,70,826 2,10,519 2,53,596 Investments 20 20 20 20 Gross fixed assets 73,750 3,45,420 3,56,420 3,67,420 Less: Depreciation -23,190 -35,379 -49,235 -64,795 Add: Capital WIP 5,130 5,130 5,130 5,130 Net fixed assets 55,690 3,15,171 3,12,315 3,07,755 Non-current assets 5,960 5,960 5,960 5,960 Total assets 1,96,020 5,07,247 5,44,085 5,82,601

Current liabilities 91,040 93,830 1,08,034 1,20,801 Provisions 11,980 13,480 15,657 17,614 Total current liabilities 1,03,020 1,07,310 1,23,692 1,38,414 Non-current liabilities 12,690 10,203 10,203 10,203 Total liabilities 1,15,710 1,17,513 1,33,895 1,48,617 Paid-up capital 2,160 2,345 2,345 2,345 Reserves & surplus 78,150 3,87,389 4,07,846 4,31,639 Shareholders’ equity 80,310 3,89,734 4,10,190 4,33,984 Total equity & liabilities 1,96,020 5,07,247 5,44,085 5,82,601

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates

Cash Flow Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Pre-tax profit 90,920 1,14,960 1,38,768 1,59,152 Depreciation 9,380 12,189 13,855 15,560 Chg in working capital -4,420 -1,464 9,908 8,905 Total tax paid -22,760 -29,890 -36,080 -41,380 Other operating activities -70 9,487 0 0 Cash flow from operating activities 73,050 1,05,282 1,26,451 1,42,238 Capital expenditure -11,160 -2,71,670 -11,000 -11,000 Chg in marketable securities 14,450 0 0 0 Other investing activities 15,930 2,60,670 0 0 Cash flow from investing activities 19,260 -11,000 -11,000 -11,000 Free cash flow 92,310 94,282 1,15,451 1,31,238 Equity raised/(repaid) 110 3,17,157 0 0 Dividend (incl. tax) -54,000 -92,804 -82,231 -93,979 Other financing activities -12,870 -3,17,157 0 0 Cash flow from financing activities -66,760 -92,804 -82,231 -93,979 Net chg in cash 25,550 1,478 33,220 37,259

Valuation Ratios

FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Per Share data EPS (INR) 31.2 36.2 43.7 50.1 Growth, % 10.8 12.8 20.7 14.7 Book NAV/share (INR) 37.2 165.9 174.6 184.7 FDEPS (INR) 32.1 36.2 43.7 50.1 CEPS (INR) 37.4 41.4 49.6 56.8 CFPS (INR) 30.6 36.6 49.0 55.0 DPS (INR) 25.0 39.5 35.0 40.0 Return ratios

Return on assets (%) 35.9 24.5 19.8 21.2 Return on equity (%) 86.4 21.8 25.0 27.1 Return on capital employed (%) 66.2 33.3 24.5 26.5 Turnover ratios

Asset turnover (x) 25.7 2.9 1.8 2.1 Sales/Total assets (x) 2.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 Sales/Net FA (x) 7.0 2.3 1.6 1.8 Working capital/Sales (x) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) Receivable days 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Inventory days 25.1 24.0 24.0 24.0 Payable days 92.5 94.6 96.1 96.8 Working capital days (33.0) (28.9) (30.5) (31.7) Liquidity ratios Current ratio (x) 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.1 Quick ratio (x) 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.8 Interest cover (x) 81.7 91.1 100.3 104.5 Net debt/Equity (%) (62.5) (25.3) (32.1) (39.0) Valuation PER (x) 72.2 64.0 53.1 46.3 PEG (x) - y-o-y growth 6.7 5.0 2.6 3.1 Price/Book (x) 62.4 14.0 13.3 12.6 EV/Net sales (x) 12.9 12.4 10.6 9.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 51.5 45.1 37.2 32.3 EV/EBIT (x) 57.1 50.2 41.2 35.7



Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History

Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year. We have different threshold for large market capitalisation stock and Mid/small market capitalisation stock. The categorisation of stock based on market capitalisation is as per the SEBI requirement.

Large cap stocks Rating Criteria Definition

BUY >= +10% Target price is equal to or more than 10% of current market price

NEUTRAL -10% > to < +10% Target price is less than +10% but more than -10%

SELL <= -10% Target price is less than or equal to -10%.

Mid cap and Small cap stocks Rating Criteria Definition

BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price

NEUTRAL -15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than -15%

SELL <= -15% Target price is less than or equal to -15%.

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N (TP 1300) B (TP 1585)

B (TP 1670) B (TP 1650)

N (TP 1720)

N (TP 1760) B (TP 2160)

B (TP 2160)

B (TP 2160)

B (TP 2170) B (TP 2000)

B (TP 2330) B (TP 2330)

B (TP 2330)

B (TP 2330)

B (TP 2360) B (TP 2300) B (TP 2450)

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J-17 S-17N (TP 1300)D-17 J-18 M-18M-18 J-18 A-18 S-18 N-18 D-18 F-19 M-19M-19 J-19 A-19 O-19 N-19 J-20 F-20 A-20 J-20



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