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Hop Hing Group (47.HK) Leading Quick Service Restaurants in Northern China

Hong Kong | Catering | Company report

16 October 2017

Investment Summary

-Greater coverage of delivery service and extending store network. -Enriched product mix and exciting staff incentive plan. -Recovery of catering business with regional development. Company Background Company Profile Hop Hing Group Holdings Limited (“HHG” or “the Company”) is principally engaged in quick service restaurants (QSR) business in North China. HHG gained rights to operate fast food restaurant chains in franchise regions by issuing convertible bond in 2011. With the acquisition of QSR business, namely the rice bowl brand “Yoshinoya” and ice cream brand “Dairy Queen(DQ)”, HHG successfully transformed itself from solely specializing in edible oil business to QSR-focused business. Currently the company operates 481 quick service restaurants as up to 30 Jun 2017, covering seven northern Chinese provinces and cities, including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia. In future, HHG will continue to expand sales network, diversify brand portfolio and provide various food choices to customers. Milestone 1932 Edible oil business founded in Shantou, PRC 1983 Started selling Hong Kong manufactured cooking oils into the PRC 1988 Listing of Hop Hing Holdings Limited on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited;

Established of a joint venture in Guangdong Province, the PRC 1990 Production facility in Tangxia, Guangzhou in operation 1992 1993 Establishment of two joint ventures to undertake edible oil refining activities in Eastern

China 1997 Construction of a state-of-the-art facility in Panyu, Guangdong;

Camel branded cooking oil was almost the top three best selling brands of quality cooking oils according to Trade Ministry of the PRC

1999 Construction of the third oil refinery in Panyu, the PRC, was completed and commercial production commenced.

2006 Administration of Industry and Commerce of Guangzhou Municipality awarded "Guangzhou Well-known Trademark" to Lion & Globe brand and Camel brand

2012 Acquired the quick service restaurant business which operates "Yoshinoya", the brand name of a Japanese rice bowl quick service chain, and "Dairy Queen", the brand name of an ice cream retailer, in northern China

2013 Completed the divestment of its edible oil business 2014 Implemented an internet ordering system which helped complement delivery services 2016 Added “Uncle Fong”, a popular brand that makes custards, to its product offerings 2017.6 Operating 481 QSRs including Yoshinoya, DQ and other brands in North China Source: Company, Phillip Securities

Accumulate (Initiation) CMP: HKD 0.217 (Closing price at 12 Oct 2017)

TARGET: HKD 0.24 (+11%) COMPANY DATA O/S SHARES (MN) : 10,070 MARKET CAP (HKDMN) : 2,185 52 - WK HI/LO (HKD): 0.29 / 0.11

SHARE HOLDING PATTERN ，，，， % Hung Family 74.5 Arisaig Partner Ltd. 9.9 PRICE PERFORMANCE，，，， %

1M 3M 1YHHG -1.36 3.83 82.35HSI 2.03 8.02 23.57

RETURN VS. HSI

Source: Phillip Securities (HK) Research KEY FINANCIALS HKD mn FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Net Sales 2,050 2,091 2,160 2,259 Net Profit 66 125 167 173 EPS, HKD 0.007 0.013 0.017 0.017 PER, x 36.95 19.34 14.65 14.08 BVPS, HKD 0.042 0.045 0.054 0.071 P/BV, x 5.78 5.38 4.47 3.43 ROE, % 15.65 27.82 23.39 19.57

Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Est.

Research Analyst Eurus Zhou (2277 6515) [email protected]


Hop Hing Group (47.HK) Company Report

Shareholder Structure

Source: HKEX, Phillip Securities Industry Analysis Analysis of Economy in North China HHG focuses on seven northern Chinese provinces and cities. From 2014 to 2016, the GDP growth speed of these provinces slightly slowed down and experienced modest growth in 1H17. We see the great potential of the “Integration in Jing-Jin-Ji Area” policy in coming 3-5 years to realign functions and priorities of the areas and cities surrounding the capital and the Northern China region. As regional economy continuously developed, the disposable income per capita kept increasing in these northern cities. Beijing as capital reported highest level of disposable income per capita around 52,530 RMB in 2016 (3-y CAGR=8.76%), while Tianjin and Inner Mongolia delivered fastest growth in terms of citizen disposable income with CAGR of 8.9%. Figure: Seven Northern Provinces GDP and YoY Growth

Figure: Disposable Income Per Capita in Seven Northern Provinces of PRC (RMB)

Source: NBS of PRC, Phillip Securities



China Catering Business Analysis According to National Bureau of Statistics of PRC (NBS), in 2015 Chinese catering industry and QSR sector reported turnover of RMB434bn/95.7bn respectively. Catering industry generally achieved a CAGR of 9.12% from 2009 to 2015, while the QSR sector recorded a higher CAGR (12%). After being sluggish during 2012 to 2014, catering revenue and QSR revenue started to rebound since 2015. We see that QSR sector accounted for only 22% of total industry turnover in 2015. Given the limited-service restaurants contributed over 50% to US catering industry turnover in 2015, we see quite room for QSR business to develop in China. Figure: Catering Industry Turnover, QSR Turnover & YoY Growth from 2009-2015 in PRC

Source: NBS of PRC, Phillip Securities Quick Service Restaurant Business Analysis According to the China Restaurant Industry Survey Report for Financial Year 2016, published by China Hotel Association, the fast food consumption in PRC recorded 11.73% YoY growth in 2016. Amid the main segments of QSR industry, processed food and take-away sales accounted for significant portion, given the fast-paced lifestyle and great accessibility in urban areas. Meanwhile, E-commerce posted the highest YoY growth (21.65%) and constituted nearly 30% of fast food revenue, attributable to quick development of delivery industry. Figure: Percentage of main segments in turnover of QSR industry and YoY Growth

Source: China Hotel Association, Phillip Securities



We see that the “four highs”, namely high raw material, labor, rental and utility costs, continued to adversely impact on the profitability of QSR business. In 2016, the “four high” together made up over 50% of the turnover. Labor cost rose most dramatically to account for 10.8% of the revenue, while raw material cost and rental expense recorded modest increase. Figure: Expense percentage in turnover of QSR industry and YoY Growth

Source: China Hotel Association, Phillip Securities Online Ordering Market Development in PRC “Internet+” era significantly affects China catering industry. Online ordering market in PRC has been developing quickly since 2011. According to iiMedia Research data, as up to 2016, the online ordering sales reached RMB166bn (33% YoY) with a 5-year CARG of 50% from 2011 to 2016. About 45% clients order food through Internet more than four times a week. Many consumers indicate that they choose online ordering because it is time-saving and providing various food choices. Over 35% consumers prefer online ordering because they enjoy eating alone and private time. In future the online ordering market is expected to grow more stably and achieve more than RMB240bn turnover in 2018. Figure: Online Ordering Market in PRC from 2011 to 2018

Source: iiMedia Research, Phillip Securities When buying food online, the consumers place most importance on delivery speed and food safety. iiMedia Research’s survey shows that 66% online shoppers think that delivery speed is the most critical factor when choosing an restaurant online. 59.4% consumers think food safety is essential and they are concerned that



takeaway food may be not clean enough. In order to satisfy client demand and capture more market share, a market player should pay much attention to improve food accessibility, ensure food safety and provide quality service to consumers. Figure: Factors Impact Online Shoppers When Choosing Online Platform

Source: iiMedia Research, Phillip Securities Regulators continue to promote regulation to help the industry develop more healthily. In July 2016, the China FDA issued “Measures for investigating and handling on violations of Internet food safety”. The measures aim to regulate online food transaction, specifying sellers’ responsibility in food production, sales and distribution. It is required that food providers should build information tracking system for the materials and products, and online food store without business license and physical shop should be shut down. The government tends to improve food quality and safety during transaction and distribution in order to protect consumers’ rights. As the regulation improves, we believe the qualified shops and restaurants will benefit from more orderly and healthy competition. Tax policy is favorable for catering industry. Chinese government replaces business tax with value-added tax (VAT) from May 2016, which will mitigate enterprises’ tax burden, since tax burden becomes the difference between output tax and input tax rather than business tax which is 5% of revenue. The cancellation of duplicated taxation will help businesses to save fund for expanding scale, improve operation efficiency and service quality. Business Analysis Overview As up to Jun 30 2017, HHG operates 481 fast food chains with brands including Yoshinoya, DQ, etc. Business in Jing-Jin-Ji area contributes majority of HHG’s revenue. In 1H17, 75% of the revenue came from Jing-Jin-Ji area, while other four provinces (namely Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia) contributed 25% to the topline. In terms of brands, during the first half Yoshinoya recorded sales of RMB 1,572mn accounting for 85% of total sales while DQ delivered sales of RMB172mn making up 11% of revenue. Meanwhile, six distribution centers in Beijing, Dalian, Shenyang, Harbin, Tianjin and HuHeHaoTe, were primarily established to store, process and repackage food to be distributed to the franchise stores.



Figure: Operating Units from 2012 to 2017

Figure: Sales Breakdown and Stores Allocation (RMB) Yoshinoya DQ Others

Sales in 2016 1,572 mn 172 mn -

Sales Contribution 87.80% 9.60% -

Number of Stores by Regions

317 140 24

Jing-Jin-Ji 216 102 23

Liaoning 77 20 1

Inner Mongolian 12 7 -

Heilongjiang 10 8 -

Jilin 2 3 -

Source: Company, Phillip Securities Yoshinoya: Leading Japanese fast food chain in Northern China. Yoshinoya is a century-old Japanese food chain brand, offering a variety of meals, principally the rice bowl. It is famous for the specialty Gyudon (beef bowls) and also provides a series of taste choices, such as chicken bowls, pork bowls, etc. Yoshinoya targets younger generation who are relatively price-sensitive and the average spending of customer is around RMB30. HHG now operates 317 Yoshinoya shops in PRC. However, dragged by sluggish economy environment, sales of Yoshinoya decreased from 2012 to 2016 showing negative growth. Figure: Sales of Yoshinoya from 2013 to 1H2017

Source: Company, Phillip Securities



Three factors contribute to revenue recovery. In 1H17, the brand achieved HD$891mn sales with 4.93% YoY growth, arising from the development of delivery service, expansion of stores network and enriched product portfolio. 1) Enhancement of delivery service: increasing delivery sales now contribute about 30% to sales of Yoshinoya. HHG continues to enhance the self-operated delivery platforms and cooperate with popular online catering platforms to increase brand exposure and enhance customer outreach. In Beijing, HHG’s biggest market, the own delivery team of 1000 staff covers over 200 stores and assures stable delivery services and product quality. 2) Store network expansion: the company adopts a 3-tier system, which means opening flagship stores and regular stores progressively particularly in the capital city and opening smaller stores to cater for takeaway orders. Building smaller size of stores helps improve store efficiency, since it can not only increase delivery coverage, but also lower labor cost and rental expense. Aged stores are also renovated to provide customers with a cozy environment. 3) Enriched product portfolio: new products e.g. hot pots, special drinks, French toast for breakfast, are continuously added into product mix to enrich clients’ choice and satisfy more younger generations. Dairy Queen: Improving Store Network and Better Dining Experience. Dairy Queen provides a range of ice-cream cakes, frozen treats, beverages and fast food. It caters to the customers who have higher consumption power and are looking for better dining experience. HHG focus on opening DQ stores in mega malls with good traffic to adapt to the changing consumption pattern in China. From 2012 to 2016, DQ revenue slightly declined but recovered in 1H17. Figure: Sales of Dairy Queen from 2013 to 1H2017

Source: Company, Phillip Securities HHG kept improving DQ network quality by closing underperformed stores and opening new profitable stores. DQ started to provide delivery services for selected products since the end of 2016. With extensive coverage and increasing brand exposure through third-party’s delivery platforms and self-owned social media platforms, we see delivery sales grew rapidly. Meanwhile the company continues to introduce innovative new products to stimulate the taste buds and add new elements to attract young generations. Also in future the company is going to open more DQ flagship stores with comfortable seats to enhance dining experience.



Figure: Store Opening Strategy of Yoshinoya and DQ Brand Flagship Store Regular Store Takeaway Store

Yoshinoya 200-250 m² 100-150 m² Smallest size with least cost

Dairy Queen 50-100 m² kiosk – 30 m² Smallest size with least cost

Function Provide comfy dining experience with diversified menus & spacious seats

Situated in strategic locations to achieve better returns

Mainly for customer takeaway service with only limited/without seats available

Source: Company, Phillip Securities Multi-Brand Strategy and Enhanced Product Mix The company places importance on introduction of new brands. It introduces a new brand “Uncle Fong” in 2016, which offers authentic Hong Kong snacks to consumers in Northern China. The brand focus on small stores with lower investment costs and faster payback period. Meanwhile, HHG continues to introduce new products according to customer segmentation and improve customers’ loyalty. Leveraging on the big data derived from the internet platforms, HHG launched new drinks products which promised high profit margins. With technology applied in business operation, HHG expects to better track the ever-changing market needs and consumption trends to provide more comprehensive products to its customers. Staff Incentive Scheme Improves Operating Efficiency The company maintains competitive compensation packages and provides trainings to retain talents. The Virtual Partnership Scheme has been implemented in all stores since 2Q 2015, allowing the heads of stores to operate their establishments as if they were the store owners. The scheme gives managers a sense of ownership and motivates them to operate stores in more efficient ways. The program allows managers to share the fruits of the company success, through rewarding them the certain portion of revenue as long as it outperforms the sales target. Managers’ cost-saving efforts have contributed directly to profit growth especially in adverse market conditions, given that the other operation expenses gradually decreased these years. Financial Analysis Revenue The revenue grew at a CAGR of 1.49% from FY12-FY16 and it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.34% during FY17-FY19. The company attributed the negative growth in 2015 to difficult business environment and continued to adjust store network by closing underperforming stores and opening new stores in proper locations. Future growth momentum comes from: 1) Ramp-up of takeaway stores and greater penetration of delivery service. We know from our checks that around 70 new stores will be open during 2017, given 29 new stores have be stated in first half while 18 stores have been closed. We estimate that the increasing smaller stores will rise delivery coverage in a more cost-saving way. 2) Comprehensive product portfolio and contribution from new brand. 3) Incentive scheme boosts staff motivation to achieve better performance of the company. We notice in 1H17 the company reported sales of HK$1,048mn (+3% YoY) and 8.1% YoY growth in RMB terms. Considering seasonality effect, we expect better performance in 2H17.



Figure: Revenue of HHG from 2014 to 2019

Source: Company, Phillip Securities Profit Margin Gross profit achieved a 3.1% CAGR during FY12-FY16, with a generally stable gross profit margin. Raw material and labor cost consist significant portion in cost of goods sold. We estimate that the price of raw material will remain relatively stable in 2H17 and 2018, while labor cost will increase due to staff incentive scheme. Operating income fluctuated from FY12-FY16 while the operating margin has recovered since 2014. We expect compensation packages and cost control measures to raise efficiency in future. Net profit gradually rose since 2013 and we expect it to grow more stably with a CAGR of 4.88% during FY17-FY19. The implementation of VAT will help the company to save fund for development. But considering VAT impact has already reflected in 2H16 results, the net profit growth in 2H17 will be less than 1H17 growth. Figure: Gross Profit and GPM of HHG from 2015 to 2019

Figure: Operating Profit and OPM of HHG from 2015 to 2019



Figure: Net Profit and GPM of HHG from 2015 to 2019

Source: Company, Phillip Securities

Investment Thesis, Valuation & Risk

We initiate target price of HK$0.24 and “Accumulate” investment rating. We see the great potential of the Integration in Jing-Jin-Ji Area policy which is going to boost regional economy in Northern China. As one of the leading catering business in Northern China, HHG is likely to achieve better performance, given expanding network, improving management efficiency and rising regional consumption. We assume 39/18 stores (net) to be opened in 2017/2018 and estimate topline with average sales of each brands. Therefore, we initiate with “Accumulate” rating for the company, and set target price at HK$0.24 with 11% upside. Figure: Historical PE from 2015 to 2017

Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Downside Risks (1) Slow than expected launch of new stores (2) Fierce competition in catering industry and food safety problem (3) Sluggish development of regional economy



Financials

FYE FY2015 FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E FY2019E Valuation Ratios Price to Earnings (P/E) 33.1 17.3 13.1 12.6 12.1

Price to Book (P/B) 5.2 4.8 4.0 3.1 2.5

Per Share Data (Cents) EPS 0.66 1.25 1.65 1.72 1.79 Book Value Per Share 4.19 4.50 5.42 7.07 8.79 Dividend Per Share 0.25 0.62 0.83 0.86 0.90

Growth & Margins (%) Growth Revenue -5.00 2.01 3.27 4.62 4.07 Growth Profit -3.59 3.59 3.05 4.02 4.0 Operating Income 94.89 88.58 33.17 2.30 4.0 Net Profit 3.21 5.96 33.66 4.02 4.07 Margins Gross Profit Margin 63.02 64.00 63.86 63.50 63.50 Operating Profit Margin 4.59 8.49 10.94 10.70 10.70 Net Profit Margin 3.21 5.96 7.71 7.67 7.67 Key Ratios ROE (%) 15.65 27.82 23.39 19.57 16.92 ROA (%) 14.69 22.85 12.58 10.52 9.10 Income Statement (HKD Mn) Revenue 2,050.05 2,091.31 2,159.66 2,259.35 2,351.20 - Cost of Goods Sold (758.06) (752.89) (780.48) (824.66) (858.19) Gross Income 1,292.00 1,338.43 1,379.18 1,434.69 1,493.01 - Operating Expenses (1.20) (1.16) (1.14) (1.19) (1.24) Operating Income 94.10 177.45 236.31 241.75 251.58 - Income Tax Expenses (26.80) (52.00) (68.67) (67.37) (70.11) Net Profit 65.79 124.62 166.56 173.25 180.29 Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities (HK) Research Estimates (Financial figures as at 12 Oct 2017)

PHILLIP SECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH |


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Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price

+5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% Reduce 4 -5% to -20% downside from the current price

<-20% Sell 5 >20%downside from the current price

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