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Integrated Energy ChallengeEnergy System Overview – Transition Challenges9 December 2014

Jeff DouglasEnergy Technologies Institute


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2.


Energy System Overview – Transition Challenges

1. Meeting National Emissions Targets2. Energy System Overview3. Delivering Heat4. Energy Storage5. System Choices6. Demand Peaks7. System Investment

3


Net CO2 Emissions

2010(Historic)

2020 2030 2040 2050

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mt C

O2/

year

DB v3.4 / Optimiser v3.4

International Aviation & ShippingTransport SectorBuildings SectorPower SectorIndustry SectorBiocreditsProcess & other CO2

1. Targets2. Overview3. Heat4. Storage5. Choices6. Demand7. Investment


2050 Sankey Diagram (average energy flows) 1. Targets2. Overview3. Heat4. Storage5. Choices6. Demand7. Investment


Primary Resource Consumption

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2010(Historic)

2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh

WaveTidal StreamHydroSolarWindNuclearGeothermal HeatWet WasteDry WasteBiomassBiomass ImportsCoalGasBiofuel ImportsLiquid FuelDB v3.4 / Optimiser v3.4



Electricity Generation Capacity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010(Historic)

2020 2030 2040 2050

GW


Geothermal PlantWave PowerTidal StreamHydro PowerMicro Solar PVLarge Scale Ground Mounted Solar PVOnshore WindOffshore WindH2 TurbineAnaerobic Digestion CHP PlantIncineration of WasteIGCC Biomass with CCSBiomass Fired GenerationNuclearCCGT with CCSCCGTIGCC Coal with CCSPC CoalGas Macro CHPOil Fired GenerationInterconnectors



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010(Historic)

2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh


Geothermal PlantWave PowerTidal StreamHydro PowerMicro Solar PVLarge Scale Ground Mounted Solar PVOnshore WindOffshore WindH2 TurbineAnaerobic Digestion CHP PlantIncineration of WasteIGCC Biomass with CCSBiomass Fired GenerationNuclearCCGT with CCSCCGTIGCC Coal with CCSPC CoalGas Macro CHPOil Fired GenerationInterconnectors

Electricity Generation 1. Targets2. Overview3. Heat4. Storage5. Choices6. Demand7. Investment


Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

The Heat Challenge

Source: Imperial College (2011)

+132 GW heat demand in 1 hr

(0630-0730)

-121 GW heat demand in 1 hr(0830-0930)

291GW

8am 6pm

304GW

16 GW 67 GW

132GW/hr = 36MW/sDinorwig = 108MW/sand 1.32GW total

Saturday 18th Dec 2010H

eat D

eman

d (G

W)

Time of Day


9


2010(Historic)

2020 2030 2040 2050

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mt C

O2/

year

Net CO2 Emissions


‘Systems’ view shows the need to decarbonise buildings –but efficiency measures alone are not effective

Buildings SectorCarbon Reduction Package

% CO2 Saving

Cost per Dwelling

Retrofix 33% £7,500 -£21,000

RetrofixPlus

45% £15,000 -£31,000

= £b x 00,s - for 26 million homes…and not meet the target

Meeting National Emissions Targets

Net CO2 Emissions Buildings Efficiency Improvement


10


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2010(Historic)

2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh

Space Heat Production


Ground Source Heat PumpAir Source Heat PumpElectric ResistiveBiomass BoilerGas BoilerOil BoilerDistrict Heating (detached)District Heating (semi-detached & terraced) District Heating (flats & apartments)District Heating (commercial & public)Solid fuel boiler

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2010(Historic)

2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh

Water Heating


Space and Water Heating1. Targets2. Overview3. Heat4. Storage5. Choices6. Demand7. Investment


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2035 2040 2045 2050

M D

wel

lings


Retrofix for Dwelling (HD)Retroplus for Dwelling (HD)Retrofix for Dwelling (MD)Retroplus for Dwelling (MD)Retrofix for Dwelling (LD)Retroplus for Dwelling (LD)

Buildings Efficiency Measures1. Targets2. Overview3. Heat4. Storage5. Choices6. Demand7. Investment


Two principal pathways for heat - district heat networks and electricity… with distinctly different infrastructure development needs

Delivering Heat to Homes

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2010 (Historic) 2050

TWh

Space Heat Delivery


Hea

tN

etw

orks

Ele

ctri

cH

eat

Ground Source Heat Pump

Air Source Heat Pump

Electric Resistive

Gas Boiler

Oil Boiler

Heat Networks –Various Building Types

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2010(Historic)

2050

TWh

Water Heating

Heat Pump (GroundSource, Hot Water)

Heat Pump (AirSource, Hot Water)

Electric ResistiveHeating - Hot Water

Gas Boiler - Hot Water

Oil Boiler - Hot Water

DH for Dwelling (LD,ThP)

DH for Dwelling (LD,ThM)


Elec

tric

Hea

t H

eat

Net

wor

ks

Space Heat Hot Water


13


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2010(Historic)

2020 2030 2040 2050

Stor

e C

apac

ity (G

Wh)


District Heat StorageBuilding Hot Water StorageBuilding Space Heat StorageGeological Storage of HydrogenFlow battery - Zn-BrBattery - Li-ionCompressed Air Storage of ElectricityPumped Storage of Electricity

Storage Capacity1. Targets2. Overview3. Heat4. Storage5. Choices6. Demand7. Investment


Poor system optimisation doubles the cost of a 2050 UK low carbon energy system



Electricity: 2050 capacity & supply by technology

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

GW

Battery - Li-ionCompressed Air Storage of ElectricityPumped Storage of ElectricityGeothermal PlantWave PowerTidal StreamHydro PowerLarge Scale Ground Mounted Solar PVOnshore WindOffshore WindH2 TurbineAnaerobic Digestion CHP PlantIGCC Biomass with CCSNuclearCCGT with CCSIGCC Coal with CCSInterconnectors



-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

GW

ESME space heating results: typical vs peak

Typical summer day

Typical winter day

Peak demand day

Ground Source Heat PumpAir Source Heat PumpGas BoilerElectric ResistiveDistrict Heating (detached)District Heating (semi-det. & terraced) District Heating (flats & apartments)District Heating (commercial & public)Storage (water tank)


Presenter

Presentation Notes

ESME is able to see these issues This example shows how the heating system is operated in summer/winter and at peak demand


Generation and Distribution Systems lead investment

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

£bn/

year

Counterfactual (no climate change targets)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Capex: additional to meet CO2 targets


Presenter

Presentation Notes

Now lets look at this in more detail. ESME can provide us with a view of total investment (by which I mean capital spend) out to 2050 with or without climate change targets. We can see here the dominance of buildings and vehicles in our overall investment and how modest energy supply and energy infrastructure is in the grand scheme of things. [The importance of efficiency standards for new buildings and vehicles is clear from this.] If we now look at the incremental capital investment associated with meeting the climate change targets we see that it is totally dominated by supply and infrastructure until the mid to late 2020s. In total it adds up to about £30bn to 2025, although we should probably recognise that this is on the low side as ESME doesn’t invest in anything ahead of time whereas in reality infrastructure must be installed ahead of requirement in order to encourage conversion.


Distribution choices and CO2 transport and storage need attention

3.9

1.32.6

2.3

Infrastructure investment to 2025 £bn (from ESME)

District Heating

Electricity Distribution

Electricity Transmission

CO2 Transport


Presenter

Presentation Notes

If we start to look in more detail at the infrastructure investment required to 2025 we estimate a required spend in the order of £10bn, possibly a bit higher for the reasons just discussed. It is very much dominated by district heating with electricity transmission and distribution also a significant slice of the total spend.


0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Incr

emem

enta

l Inv

estm

ent

£bn/

year

Investing in a UK transition at an increasing rate

• Drive efficiency• Prove business

models at scale• Develop

knowledge base for choices

• Engage stakeholders

• Finalise Plans• Build infrastructure• Manage transition• Develop 2nd gen

technologies

• Complete transition

• Apply 2nd gen technologies

• Plan for post 2050 challenges


Presenter

Presentation Notes

What would it cost? Over the long term a considerable amount, although the capital investment figures shown here will be considerably offset by reductions in fuel costs. We’ve talked about the period up to 2025 as being a period of preparedness. Until then capital investment is fairly modest and focussed on driving efficiency (which pays for itself) and early deployment (nuclear, CCS, district heating) to prove business models at scale and begin to build the backbone of future infrastructure and develop the options for later decisions (such as hydrogen vehicle infrastructure). Engaging with stakeholders from senior politicians through to the public is also a vital part of preparing for transition.


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integrated energy challenge - amazon s3...dec 09, 2014 · ©2014 energy technologies institute llp...

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