Basharat Ahmed Saeed, LEAD Pakistan

Nadeem Ahmed, LEAD Pakistan

Rabia Sidat, SPDC

Hasan Akhtar Rizvi, LEAD Pakistan

SUPPORTING SDG ACCELERATION

POLICY CHOICES AND INTEGRATED APPROACHES

Integrated Flood Management for SDG

Acceleration: Securing the Benefits of

Development in Pakistan

Draft 2

September 29, 2017

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 3

Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 5

Floods in Pakistan: Dragging back Development ...................................................................................................... 7

The Role of Flood Management in Sustainable Development ......................................................... 12

Flood Management in Pakistan: Policies, Institutions, and Gaps ..................................................... 21

Policy and Legal Response to Floods ................................................................................................................ 21

Flood Management Plans ................................................................................................................................... 22

Pakistan’s National Flood Protection Plans ..................................................................................................... 23

Institutional Evolution of Flood Management ................................................................................................ 24

Post National Disaster Management Act Institutions: ............................................................................................. 28

Institutional Gaps and the need for institutional reform and strengthening: ............................................................ 33

Track 2 SDG Acceleration: The Case for Early Warning Systems ...................................................... 35

Reconceptualising EWS and Disaster Response for Acceleration towards SDGs...................................... 35

Early Warning and Forecasting .......................................................................................................................... 35

Institutional Mandate for Flood Early Warning System ................................................................................ 36

Scope and Limitations of the System ............................................................................................................... 40

EWS in Practice: 2010 Onwards ......................................................................................................................... 42

EWS – Accelerator intervention for SDGs? ....................................................................................................... 42

EWS in Contingency Planning ............................................................................................................................... 43

Acceleration towards No Poverty, Zero Hunger, and Climate Action ..................................................................... 44

Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................................... 47

Methodology ................................................................................................................................................. 48

Research Question................................................................................................................................................ 48

Guiding Questions ................................................................................................................................................ 48

NOTES .............................................................................................................................................................. 49

Executive Summary

Pakistan is home to approximately 207 Million people, out of which 36 percent are now concentrated in urban areas. It has a diverse geography ranging from high elevations in the Himalayas, which feed one of the largest river systems (Indus), to the long coastline in the South formed by the Indian Ocean. Due to its diverse topography, climatic zones and ecosystems, Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to a variety of hazards like floods, cyclones, extreme precipitation especially during monsoon, droughts, landslides and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).

Natural disasters are a threat to development and stability, especially for the most vulnerable communities residing in the most vulnerable developing countries in the world. Disasters can retard progress on poverty reduction and disrupt development plans. Pakistan’s ranking as the 7th most affected country by extreme weather events between 1996-2015 coupled with its ranking of 147th on the Human Development Index and an estimated 38.8% population living in multi-dimensional poverty, captures the country’s climatic and socio-economic vulnerability to natural disasters. Prime among these – based on number of events, number of people affected, and economic losses – is flooding.

The agriculture sector is the biggest employer in Pakistan, providing livelihoods for 45% of the labour force, and contributing 24% to GDP. Large swathes of agricultural land are irrigated by seasonal flooding and the Indus Basin Irrigation System depends on water supplied by the Indus River System. Water is both the country’s lifeline and the biggest threat to it. Given these intricate linkages between livelihood security, economic sustainability, poverty, and flooding it is inexplicable to envision a development paradigm that is segregated from flood management. Traditionally, flood management in Pakistan has been considered a standalone sector. For a large part of its history, flood management was also considered a technical engineering-driven field. This is in part ideological inheritance from the colonial founders of Pakistan’s irrigation system and flood management infrastructure, and in part due to the silo-ed and linear approach towards economic growth in the global development discourse. Floods and other natural disasters were considered an external shock to the system. But for Pakistan, which has retained its position among the most climate vulnerable countries in the world for about a decade, floods are no longer external shocks but an integral and inherent part of its socioeconomic fabric. There can be no sustainable development without successful flood management. At the same time, integrated flood management in Pakistan can only succeed if it is premised upon institutional reform and strengthening, and complex inter-sectoral linkages that can potentially spur greater growth and help secure the benefits of development in a sustainable manner. To put it simply, if integrated flood management in Pakistan fails, so do multiple sectors that are inherently vulnerable to floods. But if it succeeds it can trigger progress across multiple sectors in a sustainable manner.

In the trajectory of global development discourse, this is the perfect opportunity to propose integrated flood management as a multi-sectoral development trigger. The Agenda for Sustainable Development 2030 has ushered in a new paradigm in global development, encouraging practitioners to shed their sectoral monocles and adopt complex multi-sectoral lenses. The concept of complex cross-sectoral interactions and feedback loops is now common currency and countries have begun experimenting with frameworks of integrated policymaking to rise to the SDG challenge. Among the ideas proposed for codifying and structuring these complex interactions is that of the SDG Accelerator Intervention: a singular intervention that triggers progress across multiple SDGs.

In this paper we explore the history and current configuration of flood management in Pakistan and propose Integrated Flood Management (IFM) as a singular programmatic intervention that can secure gains made from business as usual in sector specific development and accelerate progress across multiple SDGs. We endorse the definition proposed by the World Meteorological Organization and Global Water Partnership, who define IFM as a process promoting a holistic risk-based approach to flood management that aims at maximizing the net benefits from the use of flood plains and minimizing loss of life from flooding. Other aspects of IFM include the integration of land and water resources management, inclusive and participatory planning, and respect for cultural diversity and local contexts in planning and implementation. As this paper explores in detail, the bigger chunk of Pakistan’s historical engagement with flood management has lacked all of these markers and has instead focused on top-down, structural, and engineering-driven attempts at controlling rivers and water body. The recent expansion of the flood management franchise to include

broader stakeholders and non-structural measures is a step in the right direction, but we argue that greater integration and greater institutional change is required to move towards IFM in the true sense of the tem. To recast it as an SDG Accelerator serves to express it in a language that has more currency and broader national and international appeal.

We propose two tracks to SDG Acceleration. Track One SDG Acceleration uses SDG 16 as an entry point. Specifically, it treats the ‘strong institutions’ component of it as a prerequisite to successful IFM. Track Two SDG Acceleration is more targeted and easier to rollout. It is akin to aiming for low hanging fruit that secures immediate success while longer term institutional and structural changes are made. As an example of Track Two SDG Acceleration we propose investing in Early Warning Systems and Disaster Response.

The lesson learnt from Pakistan’s MDG experience is that progress in specific sectoral goals is decelerated or brought to a standstill if the inherent volatility of the system on account of floods is not explicitly addressed. We hope this paper becomes the starting point for policymakers in Pakistan to reimagine flood management as a multi-sector, multi-SDG, and multi-dimensional intervention that spurs and secures gains from development.

Introduction

2015 marked the beginning of a new era in sustainable development, environmental consciousness, and resilience. 164 countries signed the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) in March 2015, followed by an even bigger group of nations – 193 in total – adopting the Agenda for Sustainable Development 2030 in September 2015. When 195 countries adopted the Paris Climate Agreement (PCA) of the UNFCCC in December 2015 – later ratified by 148 counties – it seemed that ideological, disciplinary, and political divergences had been arrested – even if temporarily – to set a global agenda for achieving a universally desired vision of the future. Though all three moments, and the agreements that ossified them, are significant, the Agenda for Sustainable Development 2030 (also known as the Sustainable Development Goals – SDGs) is the pivot upon which global development policy and strategy will turn in the next decade or so.

Unlike the MDGs, which had a very limited scope of protection from climate-related hazards, SDGs reflect a coherent, holistic, comprehensive, and balanced framework incorporating the three dimensions of sustainable development: social, economic, and environmental with the aim to “leave no one behind “. The SDGs recognise the direct linkages between human well-being, economic development, and a healthy environment.

GLOBAL POST-2015 AGREEMENTS AND RESILIENCE

SDGs1 SFDRR2 Paris Climate Agreement3

1. End Poverty

2. Zero Hunger

3. Good Health and Wellbeing

4. Quality Education

5. Gender Equality

6. Clean Water & Sanitation

7. Affordable & Clean Energy

8. Decent Work & Economic

Growth

9. Industry, Innovation &

Infrastructure

10. Reduced Inequalities

11. Sustainable Cities &

Communities

12. Responsible Consumption &

Production

13. Climate Action

14. Life below water

15. Life on land

16. Peace, Justice & Strong

Institutions

17. Partnerships for the Goals

Targets

1. Reduce disaster mortalities

2. Reduce number of people affected by

disasters

3. Reduce direct disaster economic loss

4. Reduce damage to critical

infrastructure

5. Increase number of countries with

DRR strategies

6. Enhance international cooperation to

developing countries

7. Multi-hazard early warning systems

Priorities

1. Understanding disaster risk

2. Strengthening disaster risk

governance

3. Investing in DRR

4. Build Back Better

Paragraph 7 of Article 7 and Article 8, of the COP-21

(c) Strengthening scientific knowledge on climate, including research, systematic observation of the climate system and early warning systems, in a manner that informs climate services and supports decision-making; (d) Assisting developing country Parties in identifying effective adaptation practices, adaptation needs, priorities, support provided and received for adaptation actions and efforts, and challenges and gaps, in a manner consistent with encouraging good practices;

Article 8 No. 1 Parties recognize the importance of averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, including extreme weather events and slow onset event and the role sustainable development in reducing the risk of loss and damage. The new initiative for climate risk early warning systems was launched at the COP21

Building resilience and adaptive capacity is the main goal of SFDRR, and runs across several SDGs. Through this, countries have renewed their commitment and need of building resilience to disasters in the context of sustainable development by integrating resilience into policies, plans, programs and budgets that

1 United Nations (2015). Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the United Nations

General Assembly Seventieth session Agenda items 15 and 116, A/70/L.1. 2 UNISDR (2015). Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2010, adopted at the Third UN World

Conference in Sendai, Japan, 3 United Nations / Framework Convention on Climate Change (2015) Adoption of the Paris Agreement,

21st Conference of the Parties, Paris: United Nations

cut across sectors and tiers of governance. Addressing climate change drivers and integrating sustainability into all activities are the two prerequisites for a this new era of development (United Nations 2014). The 17 sustainable goals and 7 targets of the Sendai framework collectively provide an opportunity to disaster-prone countries like Pakistan for integrated planning and jointly delivering both frameworks and achieving accelerated development that is sustainable, resilient to disasters and advance benefits across other related development dimensions and sectors.

Where the SDG approach does well to mirror the complexity and multi-dimensional nature of sustainable development, it also captures the difficulty in prioritizing one sector or indeed one SDG over others in policy and planning. The SDG framework does not link one SDG to another in a linear progression but instead contains multiple feedback loops and complex interactions. The location and strength of each feedback loop and interaction varies from country to country, community to community, and context to context. The achievement of some SDG targets can serve to enable or strengthen other targets, while some will negate the vision and progress of others. Some SDG targets are self-contained and their benefits do not directly or obviously impact other SDGs, positively or negatively. And finally, there are interventions that can trigger progress on multiple SDGs, and therefore accelerate the overall achievement of the Agenda for Sustainable Development. It is these SDG accelerator interventions that are the subject of this paper.

Natural disasters are a threat to development and stability4. While disasters are a global phenomenon, their impact is felt most by developing countries, and within developing countries by the poorest and most marginalized. Disasters can retard progress on poverty reduction and disrupt development plans. Given the higher vulnerability to natural disasters of the economically poor, politically and socially excluded, and those living on the margins of society – geographically and socio-economically -, the mantra of ‘leaving no one behind’ necessitates building the resilience of disaster-prone communities. Without this, the progress in any sector or SDG will remain at risk of undoing by natural disasters. The increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters due to climate change is further exacerbating this risk. The high incidence of poverty and the extreme vulnerability to natural disasters in Pakistan make it the perfect case study for why building disaster resilience is necessary for making progress on multiple SDGs in countries that are vulnerable to extreme events. By reducing or eliminating an increasingly frequent source of retardation for social, economic, and environmental progress, each affected sector can enjoy the gains of development and accelerate progress on the Agenda for Sustainable Development. Indeed, disaster resilience can be the SDG accelerator that Pakistan needs to remain true to its commitment to the international community and to its own people.

Pakistan is currently ranked 147th of the Human Development Index5 and 7th on the ranking of countries most affected by extreme weather events between 1996 and 20156. The INFORM Index for Risk Management, which includes all natural disasters (including earthquakes) and non-natural shocks such as violent conflict, ranks Pakistan 13th out of 191 countries vulnerable to multiple natural and man-made disasters. Unsurprisingly, Pakistan is among the countries noted to be at ‘very high risk’ to disasters. The various rankings and figures differ but they all tell a common tale: Pakistan is highly vulnerable to various types of disasters. In addition to the global HDI ranking, based on the Multidimensional Poverty Indicators (MPI), 38.8% of the population of Pakistan are classified as poor.

Among the myriad climatic hazards that Pakistan is subject to, none are as frequent or as destructive as floods. Table 1 and 2 summarize the number of flood events in Pakistan and the damage they have caused. The frequency of these events has increased in recent years with the mega floods of 2010 distinguishing themselves as exceptionally menacing on all counts: death toll, injuries, human displacement, and economic damage. In some assessments undertaken since

4 Hillier,D. & Nightingale,K. (2013). How Disasters Disrupt Development: Recommendations for the post-2015

development framework. Oxfam International.

5 Retrieved from: http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries on 11th September 2017.

6 Kreft, S., Eckstein, D. & Melchior, I. (2016). Global Climate Risk Index 2017: Who Suffers Most From Extreme

Weather Events? Weather-related Loss Events in 2015 and 1996 to 2015. Germanwatch

2010, it was suggested that flooding affected the ability of Pakistan to meet the Millennium Development Goals7.

In most countries disaster risk management is undertaken by a standalone agency. “It is therefore divorced from mainstream concerns, such as stimulating economic growth, boosting employment and managing food prices, or in the case of local governments; supplying water, power, transport and waste management”8. Pakistan has only recently begun to understand the virtue of integrated disaster management, specifically Integrated Flood Management (IFM). However, the journey to this realization has been slow and punctuated by tragic and irreparable losses. It also historically been jeopardized by the tendency to see flood management as a standalone technical field, which limited its interaction with sectors that were highly vulnerable to floods but ultimately played no part in the effort to build resilience to them.

Integrated Flood Management (IFM) takes into account social and economic benefits, ensures resources are shared in an equitable manner without compromising ecological sustainability. IFM offers significant economic benefits, preventing human losses and ultimately building resilience. Presently flood is the greatest water-related environmental disaster causing widespread human, economic and ecological losses every year in Pakistan. With rapid urbanisation, population growth, deforestation and climate change, the frequency and intensity of flood have increased and incurred significant human, economic, and environmental loses.

Climatic change will continue to have massive impacts on water, food and energy security in the country. The likely impacts may include overall temperature increase in Pakistan, erratic water flows in the Indus river system, and variability in monsoon and winter rains leading to more frequent and intense floods or droughts, saline water intrusion due to ongoing sea level rise in Sindh, Pakistan. Climatic Change realted extreme events have been interrupting basic service delivery in both urban and rural areas and pushing large number of people into poverty. Without significant monetary and non-monetary investment, these impacts would be more pronounced in the future as Pakistan currently lacks the adaptive capacity and resilience needed to withstand, absorb, and recover from the expected impact, especially on its poor and most vulnerable segments of society.

The SDG framework and the complex interactions that define it present an opportunity to recast flood management as both a development trigger and a development consolidator. But to adopt SDGs as a roadmap for future gains, we must first use it as a lens for past losses and missed opportunities. The next section looks at the historical impact of recent floods on key sectors of Pakistan and the loss of development they caused.

Floods in Pakistan: Dragging back Development

A snapshot of the trend in flooding since 2010 serves as an illustration of how important flood management is to sector specific and cross-sectoral growth, development, poverty eradication, and environmental sustainability in Pakistan. According to the Disaster Needs Assessment conducted by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, the 2010 floods cost Pakistan 5.8% of its 2009/10 GDP. According to the

7 Food and Agriculture Organization, ‘FAO and the post-2015 Development Agenda’, www.fao.org

http://www.fao.org/sustainable-development-goals/overview/fao-and-the-post-2015-development-

agenda/resilience/en/ (Accessed June 6, 2017)

8 Ibid. pg. 3

Integrated Flood Management (IFM) is a process promoting a holistic risk-based approach to flood management that aims at maximising the net benefits from the use of flood plains and minimising loss of life from flooding. IFM integrates land and water resources management with respect to flood management within the broader context of integrated water resources management (IWRM). IFM includes institutional actors at all levels of flood management and recognises the critical importance of stakeholder participation and cultural diversity in planning and implementation.

WMO and APFM (2009). Integrated Flood Management: Concept Paper. http://www.apfm.info/publications/concept_paper_e.pdf

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, three floods in three years between 2010 and 2012 cost Pakistan over USD 2 billion in agricultural damages and USD 16 billion overall9. In addition to these real losses, these floods also reduced ‘potential growth’ by half. According to the World Resources Institute, floods between 2010 and 2015 caused losses of PKR 334 billion per year, in monetary terms10

The 2010 flood alone impacted 78 districts where 70% of the roads and bridges; over 10,000 schools; 500 hospitals; and about 1.6 million homes, were damaged or completely destroyed11. The initial post-disaster assessment put the livestock body count at 200,000, which increased overtime due to lack of specialized post-disaster veterinary care and the loss of feed and food (estimated at 1 million tons)12. The true extent of loss associated with the death of livestock extends beyond just the loss of life and productive value, and is also the loss of a major asset for rural dwellers. In rural Pakistan, livestock is intrinsically linked to household food security, and is considered a means for dealing with credit shortfalls and emergencies through sale. Additionally, the 2010 flood caused mass displacement of human populations. Millions of people were forced to leave their homes, mostly in an unorganized and unplanned manner, with a vast majority of them belonging to poor and marginalized communities13. According to a report on flood resilience in Pakistan by OXFAM, a study in Sindh showed even 11 months after the 2010 floods struck, there were still about 37,000 people living in 300 camps in the province14. This does not factor in longer term voluntary migration which is used by some communities to adapt to increasing frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of floods15. It also falls victim to the assumption that those no longer in relief camps have returned to their homes, whereas there are indications that a large number of people proceeded to urban centers such as Lahore and Karachi, post-displacement16. In the absence of a Migration Policy, and with conflict-induced internal displacement and movement of international refugees from Afghanistan already stretching the country’s capacity, flood-induced displacement/migration further jeopardizes development planning across multiple sectors, creates stress on basic energy, health, education, and housing infrastructure, and hampers comprehensive and equitable coverage of essential public services.

From the sectoral spread of flood impacts it is clear that unless Integrated Flood Management is aggressively pursued as a cross-sectoral development intervention, floods would continue to affect lives and livelihoods, retard growth, undermine existing development interventions, lead to periodic budgetary reprioritization, and ultimately disrupt Pakistan’s trajectory towards the Agenda for Sustainable Development 2030. The disruptive influence of floods on development agendas has precedence in Pakistan. In some assessments undertaken since 2010, it was suggested that flooding affected the ability of Pakistan to meet the Millennium Development Goals17. One review said that as a result of the 2010 floods, the MDG on poverty (MDG 1.A) and hunger (MDG 1.C) is less likely to be met18. Another review explicitly stated that, “Had it not been for the 2010 and 2011 floods and their impact on an access to health facilities, three provinces were on course to achieve the MDG target of 140 for MMR (Maternal Mortality

9 Food and Agriculture Organization, ‘FAO and the post-2015 Development Agenda’, www.fao.org

http://www.fao.org/sustainable-development-goals/overview/fao-and-the-post-2015-development-

agenda/resilience/en/ (Accessed June 6, 2017) 10 Dawn. ‘Floods caused Rs334bm loss a year’. July 28, 2015. www.dawn.com

https://www.dawn.com/news/1196774 (accessed on June 20, 2017) 11 The World Bank/Asian Development Bank (2010), Pakistan floods 2010, Islamabad 12 Ibid. 13 Rodriguez, A. (2010) Pakistan’s economy barely afloat. Los Angeles Times, September 19, 2010

https://www.pressreader.com/usa/los-angeles-times/20100919/textview (Accessed June 7, 2017) 14 Azad, A. and McElhinney, H. (2011), Ready or Not: Pakistan’s resilience to disasters one year on from the floods,

OXFAM International. 15 Black, R., Bennet, S.R.G., Thomas, S.M. and Beddington, J.R. (2011). Climate change: Migration as adaptation.

Nature. 478, 447-449 16 Looney, R. (2012) Economic impacts of the floods in Pakistan. Contemporary South Asia, 20:2, 225-241 17 Food and Agriculture Organization, ‘FAO and the post-2015 Development Agenda’, www.fao.org

http://www.fao.org/sustainable-development-goals/overview/fao-and-the-post-2015-development-

agenda/resilience/en/ (Accessed June 6, 2017) 18 AusAid. (2010). Australia’s strategic approach to aid in Pakistan. Canberra.

Ratio)”19. The table below shows the full extent of monetized losses from the 2010 floods across sectors. Given the broad spectrum of sectors impacted, it is easy to see why the progress towards a broad development agenda such as the MDGs would be decelerated or brought to a temporary standstill, and why future development agendas such as SDGs, stand to suffer a similar fate.

On the other hand the desire that flooding as a phenomenon cease to exist is both unrealistic and foolish. In a predominantly Semi-arid and Arid country, periodic flooding is critical for sustaining agriculture, replenishing ground water, maintaining soil health, and strengthening land and marine ecosystems. In an interview given to The Guardian in 2010, Director General of Sindh Coastal Department, Mr. Mohsin Chandha, said that small to medium floods are a lifeline for communities and ecosystems, especially in low-lying areas20. During fieldwork conducted by LEAD Pakistan for development of Local Adaptation Plans of Actions, communities from Rojhan Mazari tehsil, in Rajanpur district, claimed that the 2010 floods caused substantial damage but also enabled settled agriculture and livestock rearing to expand in subsequent years.

A simple reiteration of this profile through the vocabulary of SDGs shows that Pakistan’s hopes for meeting targets under SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), SDG 11 (Cities and Human Settlements), and SDG 13 (Climate Action) hinge upon the ability to manage floods in a way that protects lives, assets, and livelihoods whilst also capitalizing upon the benefits of periodic flooding. Failure to do so would retard the pace of

19 Planning Commission GoP. (2013) Millennium Development Goals Report. Page: 73.

20 The Guardian. ‘Pakistan Floods: The Indus Delta’. October 21, 2010. www.theguardian.com.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2010/oct/11/pakistan-floods-indus-river-delta-video (Accessed June 7,

2017)

growth and development that is anticipated, derail the country of the track to SDG achievement, and undo investments made in various sectors of the economy. Conversely, investing in priority areas within Integrated Flood Management can compound and secure gains made through existing and planned sectoral interventions and thus, accelerate Pakistan’s progress towards meeting multiple SDG targets. This is the subject of the next section of this paper titled, ‘The Role of Flood Management in Sustainable Development’.

However, holistic flood management is a programmatic endeavor with expansive timelines, multiple sectoral and cross-sectoral transformations, and across the board capacity building. It would be ill advised to simply propose IFM in a space that demands targeted and prescriptive interventions that trigger progress across multiple SDG targets and goals. In the context of Pakistan it would be further imprudent given the highly politicized and often contentious nature of water governance, weak legislative and judicial institutions, and glaring gaps between policy and implementation coupled with overlapping mandates and lack of clarity regarding division of responsibility. These claims are the subject of the section titled, ‘Flood Management in Pakistan: Policies, Institutions, and Gaps’, where we walk through the institutional development of flood management in Pakistan to highlight the institutional gaps we claim exist and their historical origins. Pakistan’s three National Flood Protection Plans (NFPPs) between 1978 and 2008 are used as milestones on this trajectory of institutional development, followed by major policy and institutional developments such as the passing of the National Disaster Management Act (2010) and the establishment of the National Disaster Management Authority21. The broader claim we are making is that for Integrated Flood Management to effectively function as an SDG Accelerator there are areas that require institutional strengthening. In the language of SDGs, Goal 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions, with a focus on Strong Institutions is a prerequisite SDG for IFM to accelerate progress along multiple SDGs highlighted in the next section. The acceleration and securing of development gains in key sectors feeds back into SDG 16, specifically the Peace and Justice aspects of it. An illustration of this is shown below. For the purposes of this paper, the route to SDG acceleration through broad, gradual and transformational institutional strengthening can be labeled Track One SDG Acceleration.

However, there are pillars of flood management that are apolitical, and can function independent of political institutions. These pillars depend on linkages between readily available technical and scientific information on the one hand and community capacity to transform information in to resilience action on the other. Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Systems (EWS) represent one such pillar. In a country where natural and economic ecosystems are both dependent on and devastated by floods, providing stakeholders sufficient time and relevant advice to react is critical. Flood forecasting and early warning systems (EWSs) play a pivotal role in reducing susceptibility to damage and eventually enhancing flood resilience and preparedness of at-risk communities and by way of protecting human, socio-economic and environmental systems. As a non-structural intervention, it is focused primarily on the acquisition of risk knowledge about potential hazards and its dissemination and communication to concerned stakeholders for building response capability at the national and community level. The last section of this paper elaborates on the role EWS can play in accelerating Pakistan’s progress on SDGs while Track One transformational institutional changes take place. These apolitical and community driven efforts can be labelled Track Two SDG Acceleration. This track also hits multiple SDG targets but is limited in its impact on spurring development and securing existing development gains. The urgency imposed by increased frequency of natural disasters merits investment in Track Two SDG Acceleration, which Pakistan has already undertaken in recent years. Of course there are gaps of both structural and non-structural nature within this EWS regime in Pakistan. This regime, its gaps, and possible ways to fill them to increase the pace of SDG acceleration are elaborated in the last section of this paper.

21 The 4th NFPP was supposed to be promulgated in 2008 and guide flood protection in Pakistan between 2008-2018.

However, the document was only approved in May 2017 and has not yet been funded for implementation. However,

significant policy steps and have been taken in the intervening period, which are covered in this paper.

Track 1 and 2 Acceleration with Feedback

The Role of Flood Management in Sustainable Development

The Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development comprises 17 SDGs and its 169 targets. Disaster risk reduction and resilience building directly relate to 25 targets across 10 goals, “firmly establishing the role of disaster risk reduction as a core development strategy”22. Flood management is specifically mentioned in SDG6 as a major contributor towards implementing integrated water resources management (IWRM), at all levels by 2030. Moreover, disaster resilience is explicitly mentioned as key to development in SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), SDG 11 (Cities and Human Settlements), and SDG 13 (Climate Action). Floods have historically been the most frequent and most damaging disaster in Pakistan, both in terms of loss of life and economic losses. Tables 1 and 2 substantiate this claim23. Though not explicitly mentioned in SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), resilience to flooding is critical to ensuring both growth and income-generating opportunties in Pakistan where recent floods reduced potential growth by half24.

Disaster type Disaster subtype

Events count

Total deaths

Total affected

Total damage ('000 US$)

Earthquake Ground movement 7 753 704791 100000

Extreme temperature Heat wave 2 1368 80000 18000

Flood Coastal 8 373 1584306 0

Flood Flash flood 8 2325 20374273 9501000

Flood Riverine flood 11 1797 14484186 8500000

Landslide Avalanche 3 175 3818 0

Landslide Landslide 2 37 26700 18000

Mass movement (dry) Rockfall 1 13 0 0

Storm Convective storm 2 50 273 0

Storm Tropical cyclone 1 23 4000 80000

22 United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR). (2015). Disaster risk reduction and resilience in

the 2030 agenda for sustainable development. Page 2. 23 Source: EM-DAT: The Emergency Events Database - Universite catholique de Louvain (UCL) - CRED, D. Guha-

Sapir - www.emdat.be, Brussels, Belgium. http://emdat.be/emdat_db/ (accessed on June 7, 2017) 24 Food and Agriculture Organization, ‘FAO and the post-2015 Development Agenda’, www.fao.org

http://www.fao.org/sustainable-development-goals/overview/fao-and-the-post-2015-development-

agenda/resilience/en/ (Accessed June 6, 2017)

Table 1: Disaster Summary for Pakistan 2010-2017.

Disaster type Disaster subtype

Events count

Total deaths

Total affected

Total damage ('000 US$)

Drought Drought 1 143 2200000 247000

Earthquake Ground movement 29 79734 7275388 5329755

Epidemic -- 5 131 371 0

Epidemic Bacterial disease 3 142 11103 0

Epidemic Parasitic disease 1 0 5000 0

Epidemic Viral disease 1 10 12 0

Extreme temperature Cold wave 3 18 0 0

Extreme temperature Heat wave 14 2756 80574 18000

Flood Coastal 32 4745 22256189 1170030

Flood Flash flood 19 3274 22108502 10074118

Flood Riverine flood 43 9229 34967357 9725030

Insect infestation -- 1 0 0 0

Landslide Avalanche 12 567 4435 0

Landslide Landslide 10 222 29719 18000

Mass movement (dry) Avalanche 1 50 0 0

Mass movement (dry) Rockfall 1 13 0 0

Storm -- 6 184 2988 0

Storm Convective storm 10 230 1658 0

Storm Tropical cyclone 6 11555 2589940 1715036

Flood Protection, Disaster Resilience, and SDGs

According to an ODI study, by 2030 there could be about 325 million people living in poverty, who are not

only exposed to a variety of natural hazards and climate extremes, but highly sensitive to their impacts25.

It further states that the poor in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia would be most affected. The particular

vulnerability of South Asia is echoed by the differential impact of floods on the Pakistani population.

According to Robert Looney, the two groups most severely affected by floods in 2010 and 2011 were

small farmers and unskilled laborers26. These groups are predominantly poor as measured by their status

below or marginally above the national poverty line27. According to the UNDP, the 2010 floods dragged

another 4% of the population of Pakistan below this calorie-based national poverty line. They also left 6.6

25 Overseas Development Institute. (2013). The geography of poverty, disasters and climate extremes in 2030. 26 Looney, R. (2012) Economic impacts of the floods in Pakistan, Contemporary South Asia, 20:2, 225-241 27 Government of Pakistan. (2011). Economic Survey 2010-11. Ministry of Finance, Islamabad.

Table 2: Disaster Summary for Pakistan 1947-2017.

million people out of work for two to three months28. As stated earlier in this paper, this significantly

derailed Pakistan’s progress on MDG 1.A and 1.C. It is no surprise then that one of the SDG targets

under Goal 1, namely target 1.5, explicitly states resilience building of poor communities to reduce

exposure and vulnerability to disasters.

Based on data from the International Disaster Database, the top 6 disasters in Pakistan since 2010 in terms of number of people affected have been floods. In total, about 36.3 million peoples have been affected. This number includes individuals and communities that have been affected repeatedly by multiple floods. This of course does not cover the extent of impact on individuals but based on the relationship between poverty and vulnerability (both exposure and sensitivity) to floods, it is safe to assume that a large number of those affected were poor and that the impact on them was more severe than on the non-poor.

28 State Bank of Pakistan’s Annual Report FY 2010-2011.

Fig 1: Flood Risk Map of Pakistan – Source: National Disaster Management Authority, Feb 5 2015

Disaster # (International Disaster Database) Disaster Type Date Total affected

2010-0341 Flood Jul-10 20,359,496

2011-0347 Flood Aug-11 5,400,755

2012-0363 Flood Aug-12 5,049,364

2014-0343 Flood Sep-14 2,53,0673

2015-0291 Flood Jul-15 1,572,423

2013-0276 Flood Aug-13 1,497,725

2015-0476 Earthquake Oct-15 502,590

2013-0381 Earthquake Sep-13 185,749

2015-0232 Extreme temperature Jun-15 80,000

2010-0012 Landslide Jan-10 26,700

With millions of poor people affected by floods on a regular basis, and additional communities pushed into poverty due to floods, an emphasis on flood protection can accelerate Pakistan’s journey to ‘ending poverty in all its forms everywhere’.

SDG 2 deals with different dimensions of food security. The first four targets focus on hunger, malnutrition, agricultural production, and resilience to external shocks and disasters. As a composite goal, it covers all four dimensions of food security, i.e. availability29, accessibility30, utilization31, and stability32. In terms of food availability, floods and other natural disasters are a significant threat across the entire value-chain. Figure 2 shows a simple illustration of the typical agriculture value chain. Floods have the potential to disrupt this value chain at any stage. In terms of natural drivers of vulnerability, the part of the value chain most susceptible depends on the timing and intensity of floods. The most destructive floods in Pakistan since 2010 have occurred between June and September. This coincides with the growing period of kharif crops such as cotton, rice, and sugarcane. Figure 3 compares NDMA’s flood risk map with an agricultural land use map to emphasize the overlap between agricultural lands and high flood-risk lands. As a result of the 2010 flood, Pakistan lost 2.5 million tons of rice, 7.5 million tons of sugarcane, and 0.7 million tons of cotton33. These losses weren’t limited to standing crops or harvested crops lying in the open for drying or storage. According to the World Food Program, even food stocks in WFP’s warehouses had been destroyed, in addition to harvested wheat that was already on trucks for transportation34. The losses in subsequent floods have not been as severe but on average, over 1 million acres of cropland have been

29 The physical existence of food – through own production or in formal/informal markets 30 Sufficient resources for all individuals in a household to obtain food for a nutritious diet 31 Biological uptake of food by the body, determined by health, hygiene, sanitation, food preparation and storage

practices, and environmental factors among others 32 The temporal dimension of food security, which determines how sustainable security in the first three dimensions

is over a period of time

33 Rehman, A., Jingdong, L., Du, Y., Khatoon, R., Wagan, S.A., & Nisar, S.K. (2015). Flood Disaster in Pakistan and

its Impact on Agriculture Growht (A Review). Global Advanced Journal of Agricultural Sciences. Vol. 4(12) pp. 827-

830.

34 Khan A.U. & Schwoebel, M.H. (2010). Flooding Challenges Pakistan’s Government and the International

Community. United States Institute of Peace. Policy Brief 46.

Table 3: Number of people affected by disasters in Pakistan 2010-2017.

affected by each of the summer floods in 2011, 2012, and 2014. In 2014, over 2.4 million acres of cropland and 250,000 farmers were affected35.

The 2010 floods also affected other dimensions of food security. According to the World Food Progamme, 10.1 million people couldn’t access food after the 2010 floods36. Out of the 10.1 million that required emergency assistance to access food, 3.6 million would require long-term assistance37. In another assessment by the World Food Programme it was revealed that 6 months after the 2010 flood, 5 million

people remained food insecure, with 1.75 million described as ‘extremely food insecure’38. The most

35 Ibid. 36 Shabir, O. (2013). A Summary Case Report on the Health Impacts and Response to the Pakistan Floods of 2010.

PLOS Currents Disasters. Edition 1. doi: 10.1371/currents.dis.cc7bd532ce252c1b740c39a2a827993f. 37 Ibid. 38 PEFSA, (2011), Food Security, Livelihoods and Nutrition Analysis for the Flood Response

Fig. 3: Agricultural land use map with flood risk map (top left).

Fig. 2: Illustration of Basic Food Value Chain.

severely affected in terms of nutrition were small farmers and unskilled labour, which was consistent with the general profile of most affected groups. It was predicted that “it would take four planting seasons for this population to come close to a pre-flood situation”39. It is also fair to assume that the millions that were displaced, some of whom never returned to their homes, would have found the traditional value chains that ensured access to food disrupted thus, limiting their access to food. Yet another dimension of food security, utilization, was also affected. Quality and hygiene issues led to ‘poor feeding’ and increased risk of diarrhea. The level of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) in northern and southern Sindh reached 22.9% and 26%, respectively40. Across the country, 13.2 million people required nutritional attention with 2.8 million children under the age of 5, and 1.6 million pregnant and lactating women affected41. Finally, it goes without saying that the last dimension of food security, ‘stability’, is compromised by default given this paper’s engagement with the impact of floods on hunger.

One aspect of the value chain that requires further research is the impact of floods on the food processing sector. From Figure 4 (below) there is clear overlap between the geographical spread of sugar mills and high to very high flood risk areas. However, up to date information for other processing industries is not publically available.

39 Action Against Hunger. (2011). Nutrition Mainstreaming in Flood Response Programming.

40 Shabir, O. (2013). A Summary Case Report on the Health Impacts and Response to the Pakistan Floods of 2010.

PLOS Currents Disasters. Edition 1. doi: 10.1371/currents.dis.cc7bd532ce252c1b740c39a2a827993f. 41 Ibid.

Fig. 4: Sugar Mills of Pakistan with Flood Risk Map (Top left).

The reason for emphasizing the impacts of floods on agricultural value chains and food security in

general is due to its intrinsic link to other sectors in Pakistan. According to the Pakistan Bureau of

Statistics, Agriculture contributes 24% to GDP, accounts for half the employed labour force (about 45%),

and is the largest source of foreign exchange earnings42. Thus, the impact of floods across the agriculture

value chain can potentially impact Pakistan’s GDP, employment, and export earnings, thus undermining

progress on SDG 8 (Economic Growth and Decent Work), in addition to SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). Thus, to

secure the gains made by SDG 2 and SDG 8 and to ensure that Pakistan meets its targets, effective flood

management is imperative.

Another sector that is physically and economically vulnerable to floods is the industrial sector. According

to one report, construction, transport, fertilizer, and insurance industries are negatively affected by

floods43. Figure 5 shows the overlap between flood risk areas and the main industries of Pakistan. Based

on this, chemical and fertilizer factories, food processing units, and textile mills are located in areas that

the NDMA classifies as medium, high or very high risk. Similarly, planned highways under the China

Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that pass through South Punjab and Sindh are in the areas

classified as ‘Very High’ risk (see figure 6). This has implications for Pakistan’s progress on SDG 9 –

42 http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/agriculture-statistics (accessed on June 17, 2017) 43 Dawn. ‘Floods caused Rs334bm loss a year’. July 28, 2015. www.dawn.com

https://www.dawn.com/news/1196774 (accessed on June 20, 2017)

Fig 5: Location of major industries in Pakistan and Flood Risk Map (bottom right)

Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure – and reinforces the need for flood management to be viewed as

an SDG accelerator.

Linked to the general risk faced by infrastructure is the risk of damage to sector specific infrastructure.

The 2010 floods damaged or destroyed over 10,000 schools and 500 hospitals44. In the areas that were

directly affected by flood-waters, “70% of the roads and bridges were swept away”45, which also affected

access to schools, hospitals, and markets.

Lastly, there are some flood-related impacts that drive human vulnerability is a way that affects resilience

and the potential for growth and empowerment across sectors, and consequently across multiple SDGs.

One such driver is the impact of floods on mental health. SDG target 3.4 highlights the need to ‘promote

mental health and well-being’. However, there are specific disaster related consequences that require

particular attention in flood-affected communities. Studies on communities that have been affected by

flooding show that such communities face elevated levels of anxiety, depression, and post traumatic

44 The World Bank/Asian Development Bank (2010), Pakistan floods 2010, Islamabad 45 Looney, R. (2012) Economic impacts of the floods in Pakistan, Contemporary South Asia, 20:2, 225-241. p. 226.

Fig 6: Planned Highway network under CPEC, and Pakistan’s Flood Risk Map (Top left)

stress disorder (PTSD)464748. An emerging concept within the disaster-mental health relationship is

‘solastalgia’, which is a sense of loss associated with the physical loss of or damage to one’s

environment. This distress can lead to chronic depression and suicidal ideation49. In Pakistan, a research

study conducted through Medical Camps set up for flood-effected communities in 2010 in district

Muzaffargarh, Punjab province concluded that among flood-affected communities, the frequency of

depressive episodes was 61%, which is corroborated by literature on the risk of mental health symptoms

of floods50. To control for other factors, individuals with prior history of depression, other psychiatric

illnesses, long term morbidity, hypertension, and those who had suffered strokes or physical disabilities

were excluded from the study. According to Dr. Unaiza Niaz: “Frustration, despondency and despair,

following the catastrophe (Floods of 2010 in Pakistan), has led to depression, anxiety and marked

psychosomatic complaints. Women and children are the worst sufferers. Almost 90% of the survivors

need psycho-social support and counseling”51. Not only does this relate directly to SDG 3.4, but by

compromising the mental health and wellbeing of individuals and communities it also threatens the ability

and willingness of individuals to adopt practices that foster sustainable and resilient development.

46 Ahern M, Kovats RS, Wilkinson P, Few R, Matthies F. (2005). Global health impacts of floods: epidemiologic

evidence. Epidemiology Review. 27: 36–46 47 Paranjothy S, Gallacher J, Amlôt R. (2011). Psychosocial impact of the summer 2007 floods in England. BMC

Public Health. 11: 145 48 Watts N, Adger WN, Agnolucci P. (2015). The Lancet Commissions Health and climate change : policy responses

to protect public health. 6736(15) 49 Albrecht,G., Sartore,G., Connor,L., Higginbotham,N., Freeman,S., Kelly,B., Stain,H., Tonna,A., Pollard, G. (2007).

Solastalgia: the distress caused by environmental change. Australasian Psychiatry. 15:1. S95-98 50 Qazi, S, Alam, S, Piracha, S, Shahzad, S, Malik, M. (2010).The Prevalence of Major Depression in a Rural Flood

Affected Area of Pakistan. 51 Retrieved from: http://www.wpanet.org/uploads/Newsletters/WPA_Newsletter/Past_Issues/news3-2010.pdf

Track 1 SDG Acceleration: Flood Management in Pakistan

This section looks at the history, structure and gaps in flood management in Pakistan. The comprehensive review of institutions, institutional setups, and policies is undertaken to expose the areas that require significant institutional strengthening. Thus, in this series of complex interactions, our entry point is SDG 16. The last sub-section in this sheds light on insights from the field that elucidate some of the ‘strong institutions’ need to be set-up through SDG 16. These are critical components of Track 1 SDG Acceleration in Pakistan.

History of Policy and Legal Responses to Floods

Pakistan has developed numerous policy instruments for almost all social, economic and environment sectors. The majority of them are formulated in silos, insensitive to each other and hardly turn into practical implementation. Within its integrated approach, SDGs are useful in guiding and revisiting the way we undertake the development of policies and then implement them. The SDG lens lays bare the horizontal and vertical synergies that exist between sectors and sub-sectors, with each target offering a sector specific entry point into this complex web of development goals. Horizontal synergies demand the convergence of policies of various ministries, departments, and agencies at the federal level and vertical alignment call for harmony and convergence between national plans and provincial strategies. Enhanced collaboration should involve the entire policy and governance chain at all stages: policy planning, formulation, implementation; and review.

Pakistan’s national DRR policy, approved in February 2013 by the then Prime Minister of Pakistan, provides an overall guiding framework for addressing the high levels of disaster risks threatening the country. The policy seeks to promote priority measures to ameliorate already existing vulnerability to hazards, and equally important measures to ensure future development process and programs strengthen resilience.

Formulation of the National Disaster Risk Reduction Policy is a key step taken by the government to ensure disaster resilient Pakistan. The policy was approved in February 2013. The policy seeks to provide an overall guiding framework for addressing high levels of disaster risks affecting Pakistani society. In addition to a national level policy on DRR, a national disaster management plan was also approved in February 2013. The plan aims to mitigate the human losses and economic damages caused by frequent natural disasters. Pakistan has also formed a national working group on disaster risk reduction that aims to mainstream DRR into development. It ensures that future development programs and projects of ministries and donors in disaster prone areas incorporate elements of disaster risk assessment and risk reduction in the planning, design and implementation stages.

Pakistan National Climate Change Policy (NCCP, 2012) is another major policy that aims to build adaptive capacity to mitigate the impact of climate change. The NCCC has laid out 22-point policy measures to deal with climate-related disasters. These measures range from allocating adequate financial resources, to strengthen early warning systems in case of each individual hazards like GLOF, floods avalanches etc. Moreover, the policy measures also assert on the inclusion of vulnerable groups those are disproportionately affected as well as strengthening critical infrastructure like schools, hospitals, telecommunications, power utilities etc. Furthermore, national climate change policy has an emphasis on structural measures like constructing flood embankments, dykes and protective bunds to protect floodplains. In addition, it has an emphasis on non-structural measures as well like that of insurance, compensation etc. Lastly, the use of technology to map and monitor hazards and the ability of future forecasting is also a key part of the policy measures identified in national climate change policy.

The NCCP has some lose interlinkages with some of the targets of SFDRR and priority areas 1 – reduce

disaster mortalities -and 3 – reduce direct disaster economic losses. Secondly, there are four different policy

measures that talk about strengthening early warning systems for flood, avalanches and GLOFs. This

weight on multi-hazard early warning systems is a key part of SFDRR as well and comes under Target 7,

which is dedicated to multi-hazard early warning systems.

The emphasis on inclusion of vulnerable sections of the population that are disproportionately affected by climate change is also common in both the documents. The national climate change policy identifies the

elderly, women, children and the disabled as vulnerable groups who should be given priority. Similarly, SFDRR identifies that disasters have disproportionately affected people in vulnerable situations like the poor, disable, women and children. Another aspect common in both these documents is the emphasis on strengthening the resilience of critical infrastructure. The policy measures for disaster preparedness identified in national climate change policy asserts on building disaster resilient schools buildings and other infrastructure including telecommunications, power utilities and transport must the resilient to the impacts of climate change. The same is echoed in SFDRR as well, where it states that substantially reduce disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basic services. Moreover, SFDRR describes critical infrastructure as water, transportation and telecommunications infrastructure, educational facilities, hospitals and other health facilities. As elaborated in the Introduction section of this paper, all of these critical infrastructure have been impacted by floods and the services emanating from them depleted or arrested.

Flood Management Planning in Pakistan

The Fourth and most recent National Flood Protection Plan of Paksitan was approved in May 2017 by the Council of Common Interests (CCI)52. The NFPP-IV is a flagship policy instrument of GOP worth Rs177.66 billion and will steer flood resilience and management initiatives from 2015-16 to 2024-25. The plan wholeheartedly embrases integrated flood management as the best way forward for flood-prone Pakistan and focuses on both structural and non-structural measures including reservoir operations, flood forecasting and early warning, flood risk zoning, watershed management, flood proofing and insurance, disaster management and other measures.

This is the first such plan since the 18th Constitutional Amendment of 2010 devolved legislative authority to provincial governments on a number of issues including water management. The development process of the current plan attempted to bring about a consensus between federal and provincial stakehodlers. Moreover, in addition to Ministry of Water and Power, several line ministries participated in the process.

The NFPP process began in 1978 and has gone through three major upgradations, with each upgrade displaying a more nuanced understanding of Integrated Flood Managenet (IFM) than the last. However, this was not the first State response to floods since Paksitan’s independence in 1947. In 1960, following a major flood and in anticipation of more, a flood control programme was launched which finally made its way into the Fourth Five Year Plan of Pakistan53. This was followed by a National Disaster Plan in 1974 by the Federal Emergency Relief Cell, which was a pioneering plan in terms of envisaged procedures, organizational structures, responding agencies and procedures for monitoring of relief agencies. Unfortunately, this plan was never implemented. During the 1970s, the “River Improvement and Flood Forecasting/ Warning System” project was initiated in 1975 by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). At that point in time, the main actors involved were the Flood Warning Centre at the Lahore Regional Centre of the PMD, Punjab Relief Commissioner, Punjab Irrigation and Power Department, WAPDA, Pakistan Army and the Police Department. Coordination between these stakeholders was maintained through meetings held by the Central Flood Committee, Punjab Flood Commission and the Indus River Commission in Sindh.

Because of the non-implementation of the National Disaster Plan, which in itself was formulated in the wake of massive floods in 1973, provinces continued to be responsible for planning and executing flood protection until another massive flood in the Indus Basin hit the country in 1976. During this mega-flood the provincial measures and capacities to cope with the calamity were found to be badly wanting. It was therefore, decided to upgrade the existing plans to international best practices, more specifically, to apply the concept of integrated flood management (IFM). In order to do that, it was also felt that a centralized body – under the Federal government - should be created to formulate such plans based on IFM, which in turn would coordinate with the provinces for steering the implementation of these national plans. Thus, the Federal Flood Commission (FFC) was established with this mandate in January 1977. All subsequent flood

52 Council of Common Interests (CCI) was created in 1973 to harmonize federal-provincial relations.

53 Govt. of Pakistan. "List of Five-Year Plans for the National Economy of Pakistan". Planning Commission Government of Pakistan..

protection planning has since been done under FFC, a core pillar of which was the decision to update the National Flood Protection Plan every ten years.

Up until the first NFPP, it is fair to say that the drivers of enhanced action on flood protection were floods themselves. So, the beginning of the NFPP process under the FFC symbolized a move away from ex post facto and reactive policy making and towards regular, structured, and preemptive planning. This is the first reason for using it as our starting point for this study. The second reason is steeped in the origins of modern flood planning in South Asia, which were spearheaded by British colonial investments in the water sector during the 19th and early 20th centuries. Referring to these colonial and also other post-colonial developments in the water sector, Mustafa et al. remark that, “the Indus basin system has been engineered such that there is almost nothing natural left about the timing, location, and intensity of the floods occurring there”54. The 19th century in the Indian sub-continent featured the birth and expansion of what some historians call ‘colonial hydrology’ – a new paradigm in water management that combined modern engineering with colonial economic extraction and fundamentally realigned land and water. These realignments gave birth to a new generation of social, political and ecological relationships. Under this new paradigm, the 19th century saw the construction of flood control embankments and other infrastructural measures that reinforced the colonial belief that floods needed to be and ought to be controlled. This was patently different from indigenous flood plain lifestyles, which were built around the belief that floods were a part of economic, material, cultural and spiritual existence and needed to be negotiated with. The new set of social, economic, and political relations that arose from these fast proliferating engineering innovations created a new and powerful class of zamindar (landowners), “who became the pivot around which the implementation of these flood control efforts revolved”55. The rise of such politico-economic interests from colonial engineering interventions in the water sector, especially irrigation networks, has been extensively covered by historians such as David Gilmartin56 and Dr. Imran Ali57. In the case of flood protection infrastructure, this class of zamindar played a major role in perpetuating the preeminence of techno-centric flood control and the consequent politico-economic benefits that accrued to land-owners in ‘protected areas’. Consequently, they continued resisting the paradigm shift towards inclusive and integrated flood management that the engineering cadre itself had started promoting by the 1930s58. This emphasis on flood control continued to persist in official policy and is also apparent in the Charter of Duties of the Federal Flood Commission (FFC) which was created in 1977, and produced Pakistan first National Flood Protection Plan (NFPP). Even though NFPP-I continued to emphasize the need for structural improvements and investments, it foresaw and sowed the seeds for inclusion of structures beyond those that seek to physically control rivers, and expanded to include more stakeholders. Lastly, NFPP-I and the creation of the FFC centralized decision making and control of flood management, that traditionally belonged to provincial authorities. NFPP-IV has been developed at a time when a large number of flood-affected sectors, including water management and agriculture which were Federal concerns viz-a-viz decision-making and control of funds, have been devolved to the provinces through the 18th Amendment to the Constitution of Pakistan. Provincial Disaster Management Authorities and District Disaster Management Authorities have been created and empowered by the National Disaster Management Act, to perform key tasks for flood resilience and management. This particular moment is critical when assessing the role of flood management in SDG acceleration since the various sector it ‘accelerates’ are provincial concerns, while flood management is still directed in a top-down manner.

Pakistan’s National Flood Protection Plans

54 Mustafa, D., Gioli, G.G., Karner,M., Khan, I. (2017). Contested Waters: Subnational Scale Water Conflict in

Pakistan. United States Institute of Peace. Peaceworks No. 125

55 Singh, P. (2008). The colonial state, zamindars and the politics of flood control in north Bihar (1850–1945). The

Indian Economic & Social History Review . Vol 45, Issue 2, pp. 239 – 259. 56 See for example: Blood and Sand: The Indus River Basin in Modern History. 2015 57 See for example: The Punjab Under Imperialism, 1885 – 1947. 2014. Princeton University Press. 58 Singh, P. (2008). The colonial state, zamindars and the politics of flood control in north Bihar (1850–1945). The

Indian Economic & Social History Review . Vol 45, Issue 2, pp. 239 – 259.

Following the major floods in 1973 and 1976, responsibility for flood protection and management was transferred from the provincial governments to the federal government. The Ministry of Water and Power, Government of Pakistan created the Federal Flood Commission (FFC) in 1977 for the purpose of integrated flood management across the whole country. Before the creation of the FFC This also led to the creation of the FFC by the Ministry of Water and Power in 1977 which transferred the flood management related control to the federal government. As a result, the FFC was made responsible for the design and development of the NFPPs

The FFC launched the first National Flood Protection Plan (NFPP-I) in 1978 to reduce flood losses, prioritise flood protection for areas of greatest economic risk, provide flood protection for areas outside the major floodplains i.e cities and urban infrastructure, and to improving existing flood protection facilities. After 10 years, the government launched the second National Flood Protection Plan-II in 1988. The NFPP-II kept most of the scope of the first plan and added two major projects; the Flood Protection Sector Project (FPSP) Phase I and II. The added emphasis in FPSP-II was to improve the flood forecasting process in the country. The responsibility of implementation of the NFPPs rests with the provinces while decision making and control of funds lie with the federal government.

Pakistan’s Federal Federal Protection Plans have expanded from just structural measures to comprehensive structural and non-structural measures. Moreover, starting out as a top-down exercise, the development of these plans, and flood management in general, has become more inclusive both horizontally with the inclusion of other ministries and vertical with greater participation of sub-national governments. The NFPP I & II exclusively focused on structural measures that included construction of embankments; spurs; dykes, gabion walls, or flood walls; dispersion or diversion structures; delay action dams; bypass structures; and channelling of flood waters. The current proposed plan also includes several structural measures and relatively more risk-informed particularly climate sensitive.

Pakistan is an agricultural economy and surface water management is key to the livelihood and well-being of millions of inhabitants. The NFPPs are connected to several laws, strategies and plans. The key related legislations at the federal level are WAPDA Act 1958, Indus River System Authority (IRSA) Act 1992 and Environment Protection Act 1997, Climate Change Policy 2012, National Disaster Risk Reduction Policy (2013), and National Water Policy (draft) and National Power Policy (2013). Likewise, several subnational policies operate closely with NFPPs.

The three NFPP’s implemented a total of more than 1,200 flood protection schemes. These plans included actions such as (i) the execution of flood protection schemes; and (ii) the procurement and installation of a flood-forecasting system and floodplain mapping. The NFPP-IV reflect learning from the previous plans and has taken into account non-structural measures such as climate change. The gradual shift from traditional flood management to a comprehensive plan by incorporating integrated water-resource management approaches can more effectively mitigate flood risks, and provide an additional source of freshwater for meeting several SDGs goals and targets.

Institutional Evolution of Flood Management

Despite the existence of numerous legislative acts, federal polices, and planning documents, flood governance itself in Pakistan has had a calamitous history of inconsistency. It has predominantly been reactive due to institutional, technical, managerial and financial gaps existing within the flood management

Functions of Federal Flood Commission

1. Preparation of National Flood Protection Plans

2. Approval of Flood Control Schemes prepared by Provincial

Governments and concerned federal agencies

3. Review of flood damages to public sector infrastructure and review of

plans for restoration and reconstruction works

4. Measures for improvements in Flood Forecasting and Warning System

5. Standardization of designs and specifications for Flood Protection

Works

6. Evaluation and monitoring relating to progress of implementation of the

National Flood Protection Plan(NFPP)

7. Preparation of a research program for Flood Control and Protection

8. Recommendations regarding principles of regulation of reservoirsfor

flood control

regime. In this section, we attempt to explore these gaps; evaluate the roles of major governmental institutions and stakeholders involved, and analyze the evolution of various policy eras emerging through the years in Pakistan’s flood management system.

The development and establishment of key state and non-state institutions concerning flood governance can be traced from the early 1970s. Prior to 1976, the provincial governments were the principle actors involved in flood control and protection mechanisms in the country. Severe floods in the seventies and the consequent economic, environmental and social losses exposed the provincial governments’ inadequacy in flood planning and decision-making. This led to the transference of power from the provincial governments to the federal government. Since 1977, the federal government has been responsible for flood planning – both decision-making and financial aspects – and has remained the authority on approval of flood protection projects, while the provincial governments have been responsible for the execution of schemes.

The state actors involved in Pakistan’s flood governance include the Federal Flood Commission (FFC), Provincial Irrigation Departments (PID), Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters (PCIW), National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), District Disaster Management Authority (DDMA), National Emergency Relief Cell - Cabinet Division (NERC), Council of Common Interest (CCI) and the Pakistan Army. Non-state actors include UN agencies, INGOs and local NGOs. With the formulation of new plans and policies over the last few decades, actors have been systematically engaged and added to the aforementioned mix of state and non-state stakeholders overlooking flood management in Pakistan.

According to the fourth NFPP, which was approved in May 2017, the Federal Flood Commission oversees all flood management activities in the country, including the drafting of the National Flood Protection Plans. However, when one scans the history of FFC projects and initiatives, it becomes clear that the engagement of FFC has predominantly been with the structural aspects of flood management. The emphasis on flood control and protection, as opposed to flood management is also apparent in its Charter of Duties. This emphasis on structural solutions made sense at the time of FFC’s inception since the damage incurred by the country during the 1976 floods attributed to the lack of technical capacity of provinces to implement flood control projects. Hence, the main role of the FFC was to provide technical assistance for the implementation of existing and future flood control projects. On a broader level, the prevailing philosophy of flood management at the time was development of infrastructure for physical protection from and control of natural and manmade watercourses, coupled with emergency response mechanisms (rescue and relief) if said structures failed to prevent inundation of inhabited or strategically important areas. It is no surprise then that NFPP-I focused on exactly these three aspects of flood management: flood forecasting; structural control over watercourses; and relief and rescue. Under the NFPP-I, 350 flood protection schemes were implemented at a cost of around PKR 1729 million. The NFPP-I highlighted issues concerning inadequate technology and facilities in obtaining timely data for flood forecasting; time-consuming and delayed communication methods; insufficient resources for rescue and relief operations by the Civil Administration; and poor management, training and supervision of personnel. The plan also gave emphasis to traditional flood management approaches and river training works mostly concerning structural measures to ensure flood protection and control59. The implementation of this plan involved the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) who carried out maintenance related work on Flood Forecasting & Warning System equipment60.

The NFPP-II was formulated for the 1988-1998 period and involved two sub-projects: the Normal Annual Development Plan (NADP); and the Flood Protection Sector Project-I (FPSP-I). The FPSP-I project comprised of 256 flood protection schemes which cost around PKR 4735 million and the normal emergent flood programme included 170 schemes which cost around PKR 805 million. The NFPP-II focused on strengthening the existing Flood Forecasting & Warning System by procuring and installing new equipment; conducting pre-feasibility studies to improve design capacity of barrages; and preparing floodplain maps of

59 Ali, Akhtar. Indus Basin floods: mechanisms, impacts, and management. Asian Development Bank, 2013.

60 Annual Flood Report, 2015.

the Indus Basin. Two projects61 were also implemented as a response to the 1988 and 1992 floods for restoration of damaged flood structures.

The inception of the NFPP-II began with another major historic flood in 1988, which destroyed 1 million ha of agricultural land, caused 508 casualties and lead to an economic loss of around US$ 858million. Although non-structural measures such as radar information, flood routeing models and warning systems had been initiated62 and implemented at this stage, their inadequacy was evident due to the 1988 floods that took place in three eastern rivers (Ravi, Sutlej and Chenab). This flood event exposed institutional and managerial limitations, indicating that acquiring accurate information was not sufficient in implementing effective flood management strategies. An example of this was when residents living opposite the city of Lahore received a minimal warning before bunds were breached with a few flood officials stating that the only information given to rural communities was in the form of local police giving warnings to occasional bystanders.63 It was also reported that industrialists received conflicting information from agencies. A combination of both an institutional and managerial gap was apparent in this case, whereby public warning on evacuation was unsubstantial. This also indicated that the police did not have adequate training on evacuation procedures at the community level.

Another major flood that occurred during this era was the 1992 monsoon flood, which caused 1008 fatalities, damaged 13,208 villages, 960,000 houses and affected around 4.8 million people64. This was caused by a 5-day rainfall period, which led to the flooding of the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers. The breaching of flood protection levees led to widespread devastation as large areas of land were exposed to the floods. The main managerial gap was inefficient decision-making and operationalization of the Mangla Reservoir due to delays in transmission and human error. The reservoir operations were initially estimated to decrease flood discharge at Guddu Barrage during the floods of 1973, 1975, 1976 and 1978. However, in 1992 the operating staff at Mangla Reservoir miscalculated data which led to the dam being over-filled to a level beyond its capacity, resulting in the discharge of two massive waves of water to relieve pressure on the dam65. Additionally, staff members were unable to reach gauges due to high water levels and consequentially relayed unreliable information. Even if technological and mechanical aspects of infrastructure are accurate and effective, limitations such as human error can significantly intensify the adverse impact of floods.

In terms of financial gaps, another issue that ensued from these floods was the uneven distribution of relief funds, with the largest amounts supposedly prioritized to areas that were nearest to large cities. This was highlighted after the floods of 1988 and 1992 where funds donated by international agencies were used to reconstruct infrastructure and a very low amount was invested in strengthening of human resources and non-structural measures to mitigate flood damages in the future.

This too can be understood as a corollary of the FFC’s Charter of Duties, and as a function of the engineering-centric philosophy of flood management inherited by Pakistan from its colonial-era history of water sector development. Given the preponderance of structural investment as opposed to human or socio-economic investment in flood management, it follows that the quest for solutions to existing gaps and for long-term resilience would also reflect the same prioritization. With the FFC at the helm of country-wide decision-making, including budgetary guidance, the above mentioned skewness is hardly surprising. However, this era also saw two broader developments that sowed the seeds for more human-centric approaches towards disaster management. The first was the International Decade for National Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), which was launched by the United Nations on 1st January 1990 to mobilize the world

61 1988-Flood Damage Restoration Project and the 1992-Flood Damage Restoration Project

62 During this period, a flood forecasting model was developed by the WMO, UNDP and PMD using real time data

from the Indus Basin.

63 Mustafa,D., and Wescoat Jr.,J.L. (1997) "Development of flood hazards policy in the Indus River Basin of Pakistan,

1947–1996." Water International 22, no. 4: 238-244.

64Memon, N. "Malevolent Floods of Pakistan, Islamabad." Strengthening Participatory Organization (2012): 8.

65Daanish & Wescoat, 1997

for the reduction of losses to life and property and of disruptions to economies and societies caused by natural disasters. The second was the development and passing of Pakistan’s National Conservation Strategy in 1992. This was a landmark document for more reasons than one. Most relevant here is the fact that it put human development and multi-disciplinary approaches at the heart of development strategies in a variety of sectors, stressing the need to integrate structural and non-structural approaches in the quest for protecting the environment and ensuring the safety and wellbeing of people. Though flood management was not a focus of this strategy, it did emphasize the need for ‘soft’ measures that are inclusive and community-centered in all economic and social development initiatives. With regard to flood management, human-centered solutions have only begun to take center stage in the aftermath of the 2010 mega-floods. This is following a transitionary period during the 90s and early 2000s when there was a significant stress on non-structural measures, but ‘non-structural’ was synonymous with flood forecasting. Reflections by Pakistani institutions on the International Decade for National Disaster Reduction underscore this point.

In the ‘Assessments of Achievements during the Decade (IDNDR)” submitted by the FFC and the PMD in 1998, the FFC commented extensively on what had been achieved and what was left to be desired. Both strands of comments focused on ‘preparation and implementation of physical disaster control structures’. The importance of non-structural measures was mentioned, but the extent of non-structural measures was limited to flood forecasting and early warning systems, with the latter being restricted to data generation and processing, and not extending to communication, dissemination and response. Again, it is worth mentioning that this emphasis is well in line with the FFC’s charter and a reflection of the approach towards flood management at the time.

Towards the end of the IDNDR, the FFC unveiled the third National Flood Protection Plan 1998-2008. Under NFPP-III, two major projects were executed: the FPSP-II, where 101 schemes costing approximately PKR 4165 million were installed; and the normal/emergent flood programme where 362 schemes costing PKR 4192 million were installed. The FPSP-II was designed to provide continuity to the FPSP-I by improving flood forecasting and early warning systems; expanding flood protection works along major rivers and improving the managerial capacity of flood sector agencies. The development of the National Flood Protection Plan-IV also commenced at the end of this era but was not approved. NFPP-III did stress on non-structural measures more than the first two plans had. But the evolution of disaster management in Pakistan during this era was influenced by other factors, mentioned below, more than it was by NFPP-III.

The role of non-physical and non-geographical factors in driving vulnerability to natural disasters (including floods) started gaining currency in the first decade of the 21st century and the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2006 signaled a shift towards preparedness and risk management from prevention and control. With reference to natural disasters, it included preparedness, building a culture of safety and resilience, looking at sector specific impacts, and improving risk information and early warning. Most of these were beyond the mandate of the FFC, which meant that major structural changes needed to be made or a new institution created if the spirit of the HFA was to be reflected in national planning and policy making with regard to floods.

The earthquake of 8th October 2005 showed just how vulnerable the people of Pakistan were to natural disasters. Thus, the need for policy, legal, and institutional arrangements that could facilitate the mitigation of risks posed by natural disasters to social, economic and environmental development took center stage and led to the National Disaster Management Ordinance 2006. The NDMO provided a vision for legal and institutional arrangements at various levels of government66. This Ordinance called for the establishment of the National Disaster Management Commission (NDMC) and a National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), which would serve as the executive arm of the former. The NDMA was notified on 18th January 2007 with the mandate to coordinate and implement a broad spectrum of disaster management activities, including the preparation of the National Disaster Management Plan. The NDMA became the coordinating body and focal institution for all actors relevant to disaster preparedness and response, including flood preparedness and response67. In the years following the establishment of the NDMA, a division of labour has emerged between the NDMA and FFC regarding flood preparedness with the former taking the lead in

66 Rauf, A. (2011). Flood Management in Pakistan – A Case Study of Floods 2010. ISSRA Papers 2011. Pp 55-66 67 Cochrane, H. (2008). The role of the affected state in humanitarian action: A case study on Pakistan. HPG Working

Paper. Overseas Development Institute, London.

designing and implementing non-structural measures and the latter taking the lead in implementing structural measures.

Era 1970-1988 1988-1998 1998-2008 2010-present

Main Concerns management of reservoirs, and reinforcement of levees and bunds in emergency situations

up gradation and modernization of hydrological and meteorological data assessment systems

Expansion of EWS and flood forecasting systems. Inclusion of soft measures

Multi-hazard approach Vulnerability and risk assessments Strengthening community for resilience Role clarity, synergies and partnerships

Issues Central command and control, Irrigation, and flood emergency management

Major Infrastructure development, weather focusing

Multi hazard risk assessments and forecasting, community involvement

IWRM, IFP, Climate Change, SDGs, Devolution

Key instruments National Flood Protection Plan I

National Flood Protection Plan II

National Flood Protection Plan III

National Climate Change Policy 2012 National Disaster Management Plan (2012 to 2022) National Flood Protection Plan IV (May 2017)

We now look at some of the new institutions that have been established after the National Disaster Management Act, and their mandates in Pakistan’s current disaster management regime

Post National Disaster Management Act Institutions:

1) National Disaster Management Commission (NDMC):

The National Disaster Management Commission (NDMC) is the highest policy and decision-making body for disaster risk management, the Prime Minister of Pakistan as its Chairperson and the Chairperson of NDMA as the commission’s secretary. The NDMC is responsible for laying down the policies, plans, and guidelines for disaster management, including guidelines for the Federal Government and Provincial Authorities. The NDMC consists of various ministers, Leaders of the Opposition from the Senate and National Assembly, chief ministers of all 4 provinces, among others.

2) National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA):

The NDMA is the highest coordinating, implementing and monitoring body for disaster management in Pakistan. It is responsible for preparing national disaster and risk management plans and ensuring their implementation through provincial authorities. It is also mandated to provide guidelines for preparation of disaster management plans by ministries, departments and provincial authorities. It also ensures that guidelines by the NDMC are followed by providing technical assistance to relevant departments and authorities. Its most frequently sought responsibility is coordinating response in the event of a disaster, and otherwise providing guidelines to Provincial Authorities on actions to be taken in the case of disaster. It is also responsible for spreading awareness and education regarding disaster management and risk reduction. As the implementing arm of the NDMC, it can be called upon to perform relevant functions as directed by NDMC.

At the operational level, the NDMA has been involved in coordinating with NGOs, INGOs, UN Agencies, and Bi-lateral and Multi-lateral organizations. It has also prepared the National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP) and the National Disaster Risk Reduction Policy 2013. It has also regularly undertaken or overseen situation updates, contingency plans, and published various disaster-relevant documents. Most recently, it

has been intimately involved in the preparation of the Fourth National Flood Protection Plan (NFPP-IV) developed by the Federal Flood Commission.

3) Provincial Disaster Management Commission (PDMC):

The PDMC serves as the highest policy making body in each province of Pakistan, with the province’s Chief Minister serving as the Chairperson. Much like the NDMC at the Federal level, the PDMC guides, oversees, reviews, and approves various disaster management plans and policies. A crucial responsibility is overseeing the provision of funds for disaster mitigation and preparedness. Since disaster risk management is a provincial subject, the PDMCs in each province have a very important role in ensuring resilience in Pakistan.

4) Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA):

The PDMA of each province serves as the secretariat of the respective PDMC. It is responsible for the development, implementation, and monitoring of disaster risk management activities in vulnerable areas and sectors in the province. As such, it coordinates the entire spectrum of disaster management at the provincial level, in collaboration with relevant government, non-government, and private sector actors. In addition to coordinating with the NDMA for implementation of relevant parts of National policies or plans, it is also responsible for formulating provincial disaster management policies and plans and seek approval for them from the PDMC. Finally, the PDMA also reports on and provides advice to the provincial Government regarding financial matters pertaining to disaster management.

5) District Disaster Management Authority (DDMA):

The NDMA Act asked each Provincial Government to setup a District Disaster Management Authority for each district. The DDMA is the district level planning, coordinating and implementing body for all disaster management related activities in the district. As such, it is the most relevant to Operational Plans for disaster risk management, out of all tiers of the disaster management structure of Pakistan. In addition to the responsibility to follow guidelines by PDMAs and to provide guidelines to relevant sectoral departments at the district and sub-district level, the NDMA Act stipulates very specific tasks for DDMAs. Among other tasks, DDMAs are supposed to organize and coordinate specialized training programmes for officers, employees and volunteer rescue workers; facilitate community training and awareness with support from local authorities, government organizations and NGOs; conduct drills and ensure communication channels are in working order; establish and ensure functioning of early warning mechanisms and information dissemination channels; identify places to serve as camps and relief centres in the case of disasters; maintain stockpiles of relief and rescue equipment/materials; and to encourage the involvement of NGOs and CBOs in disaster management. Finally, the DDMAs are also responsible for preparing a district plan for disaster management which is to in line with national and provincial plans, and is to be updated annually. The NDMA Act also bestows some additional powers to DDMAs for disaster response. These include the regulation or restriction of human and vehicular movement in vulnerable or affected areas; and remove debris and arrange for disposal of unclaimed dead bodies; provide essential services and amenities. Two additional powers that are critical include: to give direction for the release and use of resources in possession of or allocated to any Government department or local authority in the district; and procure exclusive or preferential use of amenities from any authority or person. These are crucial because DDMAs do not have dedicated Budget Lines and pre-allocated funds in provincial annual budgets. The vast majority of functions in post-disaster situations are therefore, performed by DDMAs through the appropriation of resources that belong to different government departments, local bodies, and government and non-government organizations. These actors are highlighted below under ‘Other Actors’.

6) Local Authorities

The last tier of Pakistan’s disaster management system consists of Local Authorities. The NDMA Act does not define ‘Local Authorities’. According to Section 2(35) of the General Clauses Act 1956, “Local authority shall mean a municipal corporation, municipal committee, district board, body of Port Trustees or Commissioners, or other authority legally entitled to, or entrusted by the Government with the control or

management of a municipal or local fund”. In the case of disaster management this would include municipal authorities, municipal corporations, the fire department, or any rescue or relief body set up through a federal or provincial statute. According to the NDMA Act, under the direction of DDMAs, Local Authorities must ensure their officers and employees are trained for disaster management; ensure that resources are ready and available in case of disaster; ensure that all construction projects under it or within its jurisdiction conform to the standards and specifications laid down by NDMA, PDMA and/or DDMA viz-a-viz disaster preparedness; and carry out relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction activities in accordance with District or Provincial Disaster Plans.

There is very little clarity about how the Local Government Acts of 2013 and 2014 enacted by all four provinces have a bearing on the disaster management structure of Pakistan. These Local Governments are elected through direct or indirect elections overseen by the Election Commission of Pakistan and receive allocations through Provincial Finance Commission Awards made through Provincial Finance Commissions, which were setup by the LG Acts. However, at the same time the provincial governments of Pakistan have restored the Commissioner system of local governance. Under this system a Deputy Commissioner (DC) has replaced the District Coordinating Officer (DCO) for each district. The DC is an extension of the provincial bureaucracy and not an elected official. Given the current lack of legal clarity, it is imperative that each district, and specifically the DDMAs, come up with an arrangement to work collaboratively with the Local Governments that were elected through the Local Government Elections 2016.

7) Other Actors

Under the NDMA Act and the outline of responsibilities for various authorities, namely NDMA, PDMA, and DDMA, there is mention of coordination with, facilitation of, and capacity building of various relevant actors. These actors typically include government departments such as health, livestock, agriculture, food, irrigation, communications and works, social welfare, finance, education, law, telephone and telegraph, information, public health engineering, forestry, fisheries, and wildlife. DDMAs normally have most of these departments represented through their respective District Officers (DO).

The NDMA Act also directs NDMA, PDMAs, and DDMAs to facilitate the work of non-government organizations and to forge technical collaborations with them to increase disaster preparedness, relief, and rescue work. NGOs, CBOs, international humanitarian organizations, and UN agencies have traditionally been very active in disaster risk reduction and management activities at the local level. For humanitarian activities related to disaster relief, the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) is responsible for the work of UN agencies, INGOs, and NGOs. The objective of the HCT is to ensure that humanitarian action in Pakistan is principled, timely, effective and efficient, and contributes to long-term recovery68.

Finally, a very important actor in disaster management has been the Pakistan Army, specifically in post-disaster relief and rescue. Since Pakistan has historically been unable to build flood defenses and DRR strategies that provide adequate protection, the Pakistan Army’s services have often been requested. There are international guidelines on the use of military personnel and equipment for humanitarian relief, including during disaster management. These guidelines were used to develop the Pakistan Civil-Military Guidelines in March 2010. The guidelines restrict the use of military assets in extreme and exceptional circumstances to certain conditions. Prime among them are inviting the military to assist as a measure of last resort and when there is no civilian alternative available. Adherence to these guidelines has been inconsistent and the Pakistan Army has at times been criticized for lack of appropriateness and inclusiveness69.

Civil Defense services are also mandated to assist with measures during natural disasters in peacetime through an amendment to the Civil Defense Act in 199670. However, due to chronic under-funding, lack of

68 Retrieved from: http://pakhumanitarianforum.org/ocha-and-cluster-system/ on 28th August 2017

69 Cochrane, H. (2008). The Role of the Affected State in Humanitarian Action: A Case Study on Pakistan. HPG

Working Paper 70 Retrieved from: https://www.civildefence.gov.pk/ on 26th August 2017

trained personnel, and lack of clarity over operational relationship across federal, provincial and district levels, civil defense forces have not been prominent actors during disaster management efforts71.

Organization General responsibility

Specific Flood Management related Role

Flood Management related Capacities (Plans/Projects/Achievements)

Level of involvement/influence on Flood Management in Pakistan

Federal Flood Commission, Ministry of Water and Power

Manages nationwide flood management issues

Designs, evaluates and monitors the implementation of the NFPPs; improves flood forecasting and EWS; prepares research programs for flood protection; approves provincial and other federal flood schemes

A few of their projects include:

Irrigation System and Rehabilitation/Management Project

Flood/Rain Damaged Restoration Report (FDRP) (1992-94)

First Flood Protection Sector Project (1998-97)

Master Feasibility Studies for Flood Management of Hill Torrents of Pakistan (1998)

National Drainage Programme (NDP)

National Flood Protection Plan I

National Flood Protection Plan II

National Flood Protection Plan III

Draft National Flood Protection Plan IV

The FFC has high influence over flood management in the country and is directly involved in the design of the four NFPPs

Flood Forecasting Division, Pakistan Meteorological Department

Provides hydro meteorological data for flood forecasting, flood emergency preparedness and response

Responsible for flood forecasting in major rivers; forecasts the flow of river streams; ensures effective water management at dams especially during Monsoon season

A few of their projects include:

PMD-UNDP Project on Strengthening Early Warning System

Strengthening of Early Warning System in Pakistan

Project Sponsored By SLMP(MOE)

Flood Forecasting & Warning System in Lai Nullah Basin

Strengthening National Capacities for Multi Hazard Early Warning and Response System

The FFD has high influence over flood management in the country and is directly involved in the design of the four NFPPs

Provincial Irrigation Departments

Provides irrigation management and flood management services to Pakistan's provinces

Constructs, manages and maintains flood control and flood protection schemes; prepares and implements flood fighting plans for the management of floods on an Inter Provincial and Intra Provincial basis

Most projects involve flood damage restoration and modernisation of existing infrastructure. An example of this is the Taunsa Barrage Emergency Rehabilitation & Modernization Project

PIDs are directly involved in ensuring flood mitigation measures at the provincial level

Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters

Coordinates with India on flood management issues related to the transboundary rivers

Provides data obtained from India to the Flood Forecasting Division

Data is used for flood forecasting models to ensure accurate forecasts for Rivers Sutlej, Ravi, Jhelum & Chenab on an on-going (almost daily) basis

The PCIW has a high and direct influence as this is the only platform through which clarification, further information or improvements can be obtained from India on flood data

71 Cochrane, H. (2008). The Role of the Affected State in Humanitarian Action: A Case Study on Pakistan. HPG

Working Paper.

Water and Power Development Authority, Ministry of Water and Power

Provides hydrometric flood data to the FFC, FFD and other concerned organisations

Provides hydrometric flood data on river flows, rainfall and water levels of Tarbela, Chashma and Mangla reservoirs; data is collected through Flood Telemetric System/Gauged sites in the catchment areas of the major rivers

WAPDA is usually involved in multi-dimensional water storage projects to mitigate floods

WAPDA is actively involved in the flood forecasting process with the Tarbela, Chashma and Mangla Dam Flood Management Committees.

National Disaster Management Authority

Serves as the focal point and coordinating body to facilitate the implementation of Disaster Risk Management strategies on a national level

Coordinates response in the event of any threatening disaster (including floods) on a national level

A few of their plans and guidelines include: •NDMP-National Multi-Hazards Early Warning System Plan •NDMP-Instructor's Guidelines on Based Community Disaster Management •National Monsoon Contingency Response Directive 2016 •National Disaster Response Plan 2010 •National Disaster Risk Management Framework Pakistan 2007

High level of involvement after the post-2010 floods, especially with regards to national level flood management as it provides guidelines for the preparation of disaster management plans

Provincial Disaster Management Authorities

Coordinates with other provincial departments on disaster preparedness, rescue and relief operations

Coordinates response in the event of any threatening disaster, (including floods) on a provincial level; conducts vulnerability assessments of provinces to disasters including floods

A few of their plans include: •Punjab Disaster Response Plan 2012 •Sindh Monsoon Flood Contingency Plan 2012 •Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Contingency Plan 2012 •Flood Emergency Rain Relief Plan 2009

High level of involvement with regards to provincial level flood management as it provides guidelines for the preparation of disaster management plans

Council of Common Interest

Formulates and regulates policies and reports to the Parliament

Ensures the equitable distribution of water amongst provinces

Historically, the role of the CCI in flood management, has been limited. However, it has had direct involvement and influence with regards to the draft NFPP IV

Emergency Relief Cell (ERC), Cabinet Division

Coordinates rescue and relief operations at the national level

Plans and assesses the various relief requirements for major disasters; establishes emergency funds during disaster events; Stock piles basic need items during emergency such as dry ration, tents, blankets etc; liaises with national and provincial governments, nongovernment organizations, and international aid organizations

High level of involvement and influence over rescue and relief operations (high involvement during and after emergencies)

District administrations

Conducts relief and rescue operations at the district level and provide assistance to main flood related government agencies

Examples of their plans include: Karachi DRM Plan 2011 District Disaster Planning Guidelines 2007

Pakistan Army Corps of Engineers

Helps civil authorities in carrying out rescue and relief operations during floods

Carries out technical pre-flood inspection of flood protection infrastructure; assists PIDs in operating embankment breach sections; issues flood warnings; discusses post-flood matters for future improvement

High level of involvement in rescue and relief operations and high influence in prioritising areas that need protection

Institutional Gaps and the need for institutional reform and strengthening:

Most inadequacies within the flood management regime stem from a lack of coordination; corruption; weak human capacity/training; and insufficient research on flood issues72. Table 4 (above) lists the actors most intimately involves in Pakistan’s flood planning process. Firstly, the sheer number of actors involved in the process is overwhelming. On the one hand it gives the pretense of inclusion, which is critical if flood management is to be positioned as an SDG Accelerator. However, despite the inclusion of a large number of actors, stakeholders from sectors that we have identified as most impacted by floods are absent. These include ministries and departments responsible for agriculture, poverty eradication, and industries, among others. At the district level, the DDMA includes representatives from the departments of agriculture, social welfare, environment, health, etc. However, DDMA has no dedicated budget line in provincial annual budgets and is as such toothless when it comes to investing in disaster preparedness. DDMAs don’t have dedicated space or personnel. Despite, the emphasis on disaster preparedness and risk reduction in recent policy documents, the institutional structure still seems customized for post disaster management.

Thus, the first major institutional step that needs to take place is the restructuring and empowerment of DDMAs to give them dedicated personnel, office space, and a budget to implement flood risk reduction.

Secondly, there is very little inter-department or inter-institution coordination for building disaster resilience. In an interview with the Sindh Provincial Disaster Management Authority, Mr. Ajay Kumar, Assistant Director, claimed that PDMA Sindh was frustrated by their extremely limited role in disaster management plans undertaken by sectoral departments. He claimed that they are only brought into the process when endorsement is required, as all disaster management plans require PDMA endorsement before they can be approved. He also said that PDMA lacks technical sector specific expertise and it is unrealistic to expect them to endorse documents that require technical knowledge of specific sectors. He proposed that a focal person should be appointed who is involved in disaster management and disaster risk reduction plans from the formative stages of the development process so that coordination and cooperation during implementation can be enhanced.

The third form of institutional weakness is institutional rivalries that create hurdles in the functioning of individual institutions. According to representatives of Farmer Organizations and Area Water Board in Ghotki District, Sindh Province, the Irrigation Department of Ghotki District considers the Ghotki Feeder Canal Area Water Board’s mandate an encroachment upon their own mandate of canal distribution management. These AWB were empowered in 2004 to manage canal level water management in close collaboration with Farmer Organizations. However, their functioning depends on the timely release of irrigation water from the relevant barrages and the maintenance of main canals, which are under the

72 Mian, S. "Pakistan's Flood Challenges: An assessment through the lens of learning and adaptive governance."

Environmental Policy and Governance 24, no. 6 (2014): 423-438.

jurisdiction of Irrigation Departments. According to AWB representatives, the release of water is deliberately delayed to impede the smooth functioning of AWB and to expose them as incompetent. Irrigation Department officials, when interviewed, maintained that the closure of canals was due to scheduled cleaning and maintenance. However, when asked about the delay roughly three weeks (at the time of this interview) from the scheduled release of water, no response was given. The above is based on anecdotes and there is little scientific evidence to substantiate it. However, despite the technical nuances the deepening mistrust between institutions that are designed to collaborate is a major hurdle in efficient management of any sector, including flood management.

The fourth institutional weakness is that of institutional mistrust. In the last couple of years there has been a deterioration of relations between the Government of Pakistan and Non-Government Organizations, particularly International Non Government Organizations. In some flood prone districts, such as Muzaffargarh in Punjab Province, this has led to the imposition of the requirement to procure a No Objection Certificate (NOC) before any NGO that is registered outside the district can undertake research or implementation work on any development project. According to a representative of the Social Welfare Department, Muzaffargarh District, the process for approval of NOC can take anywhere between 6 months and a year. There is also a broader national level drive to ask INGOs to re-register, and numerous INGOs are facing difficulties in getting their registrations done. NGOs and INGOs have played a major role in disaster management and risk reduction since the 2010 floods. The current state of mistrust, which reduces the ability of non-state actors to efficiently complement government efforts and fill gaps in implementation is a further institutional weakness that requires resolution before flood management can begin to accelerate development.

The final issue with the current institutional setup is that it remains divorced from political economy drivers of vulnerability. Based on field work undertaken by LEAD Pakistan, with funding support from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for the project titled “Developing Agriculture Disaster Risk Management Operational Plans”, a few interesting insights came to light. Firstly, stakeholders in the flood prone distr ict of Kashmore, Sindh Province, explained that they are hesitant to evacuate their lands in response to flood warnings as there is a high chance that their land will be usurped. In one set of cases it is because farmers have settled in floodplain encroachments and have no legal claim on the land. In such cases it is easy for them to be permanently displaced. In another set cases it is because of the social vulnerability and inequity faced by poor households in agricultural areas. This is on account of the informal nature of tenancy contracts that prevails in the agriculture sector and the outdated system of land record management. Punjab province has recently undertaken the computerization of all land records to reduce the exploitation on account of management delays. In the case of regular contracts and accessible land records, most poor farmers lack access to institutions for legal recourse or arbitration on account of lack of financial resources or information regarding their rights. Furthermore, inefficiency and backlog of cases in courts makes the opportunity cost of pursing litigation very high for poor households. Ultimately, there is a certain degree of trust in public institutions that needs to exist before poor households are willing to evacuate the land they are farming. This trust is deficient in some of the poorest districts of Pakistan. One possible long term measure could be to include Provincial Law Departments into the flood management setup. Punjab Province currently has Green Courts – specialized environmental courts that are mandated to exclusively hear petitions regarding environmental issues. These courts are presided by Judicial Officers working as Environmental Magistrates. According to the Honorable Mrs. Justice Ayesha Malik of the Lahore High Court, the Punjab Green Courts do not suffer from the backlog that other courts are notorious for. It is therefore recommended that the mandate of these courts be expanded to hear cases pertaining to environmental displacement. This is another example of the sort of institutional reform and strengthening that is required for long term flood resilience.

Track 2 SDG Acceleration: The Case for Early Warning Systems

The evolution of Pakistan’s flood protection regime from the 1970s to today can be described as a shift from purely technical and engineering driven solutions to the due consideration of behavioural and adaptive changes. The trend is from technology-centric to people-centered. There is a – mostly implied - admission that preventing floods is necessary but insufficient, and flood protection needs to be complemented by response capacity. This trend is also observed in the evolution of the country’s approach towards Early Warning Systems (EWS) since the devastating mega-flood of 2010. The evolution, and subsequent success, has taken place concurrently with the slow and often confusing expansion of the institutional framework for flood management. Where other pillars of flood management in Pakistan have suffered from politicization, lack of political will, lack of mega infrastructure, or lack of resources, the early warning regime seems to have been streamlined. In the highly volatile and contentious world of water and flood management in Pakistan, this seems to be a low-hanging fruit, which is easy to operationalize without having to wait for broader structural reform. It is therefore posited here as a Track 2 SDG Acceleration intervention. Of course there are still weaknesses in the regime and investment is still required. In this section we assess the historical evolution of Pakistan’s EWS and Disaster Response protocols since the 2010 floods to show how the progress across multiple SDGs can be secured and accelerated if a reliable EWS and Disaster Response regime is in place.

Reconceptualising EWS and Disaster Response for Acceleration towards SDGs

Flood forecasting and early warning systems (EWSs) play a pivotal role in disaster risk reduction (DRR) by enhancing flood resilience and preparedness of at-risk communities and by way of protecting human, socio-economic and environmental systems. As a non-structural intervention, it is focused primarily on the acquisition of risk knowledge about potential hazards and its dissemination and communication to concerned stakeholders for building response capability at the national and community level.

The core function of EWS is to warn communities about impending disasters. If one defines this system purely on technical grounds, an EWS has succeeded if it processes data from multiple sources to generate forecasts and then communicates forecasts in a timely and efficient manner. However, if one defines ‘system’ as the dynamic interplay of technology and human behaviour, then an Early Warning System requires components of education, training, locally adapted protocols and other response functions in order to be considered successful. The authors believe that such a holistic definition of EWS takes it beyond just an intervention that mitigates loss of life from floods, and makes it an ‘accelerator’ intervention, that can build resilience and prevent losses that impair a country’s ability to progress towards its SDG targets.

All countries vulnerable to floods have some measure of early warning built into their disaster management strategies. This can be purely indigenous and community-led, or purely technical and centralized. In most cases, it is a combination of the two. It can be driven by the ambition to prevent premature deaths, or by a broader definition of ‘life’ that includes sectors pivotal to sustaining a certain standard of life and dignity. Prime among these sectors are food, livelihood and health. By promoting this broader conception of ‘life’ in the discourse on EWS we can transform it into an accelerator intervention with cascading benefits beyond just a reduction of death tolls.

Early Warning and Forecasting

Early warning systems have definite advantages over other structural and non-structural measures such as complementarity with other forms of interventions, timeliness in response to extraordinary events, and enhancing community awareness and empowering community for self-led action73. An EWS which is gender-sensitivei is also crucial to human security. Moreover, as a non-structural measure, it does not endanger the environment and natural habitat as do structural measuresii for flood control. It can in fact be argued that with an integrated flood management approach, of which community-centred EWS is an essential element, the positive potential of floods can be harnessed for meeting several SDG goals and targets.

73 Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Water and Power, Annual Flood Report 2015.

A people-centered early warning system has the following prerequisites74: (i) developing risk knowledge through data collection and risk assessments; (ii) technical monitoring of hazards and warning service; (iii) communication and dissemination of warnings, and (iv) building and maintaining community response capability.iii A successful intervention demands timely, clear and accurate warning messages to be disseminated to all stakeholders including flood management institutions at the national, provincial and district levels, and communities residing in the flood prone areas. Community participation and preparedness are also key elements so a public education program or awareness campaign is indispensable alongside regular drills to reinforce community readiness and to evaluate viability of the system. Corrective measures such as periodic revision of flood warning manual and SOPs and improved coordination with, and training of, flood managers and relief staff may be needed. The system also has to compliment indigenous knowledge and cultural practices, for instance with respect to gender, for it to be effective and sustainable. Finally, appropriate budgetary allocations at different levels of government are crucial to fulfilling these requirements for a successful intervention.

In Pakistan, the primary responsibility for a flood early warnings is with national level agencies. Established in 1977, the Federal Flood Commission (FFC), which comes under auspices of the Ministry of Water and Power, conducts oversight of the flood forecasting and warning system. Nevertheless, it is the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) which is designated as the national focal organisation for a flood early warnings. No other federal and/or provincial agency is authorised to issue any weather or flood forecast and advisory75. But PMD’s scope is limited to weather forecasts and it is, in fact, the Flood Forecasting Division (FFD), a specialised agency within PMD, which conducts model simulations and forecasts floods. It also issues early warnings to all organisations responsible for rescue and relief such as National, Provincial and District Disaster Management Authorities (NDMA/PDMAs/DDMAs), Armed Forces, Coast Guards, and Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters (PCIW). The effective, reliable and timely interaction between all flood control and relief agencies at each level of government is essential for preventing loss of life and livelihoods and damage to public and private property.

Institutional Mandate for Flood Early Warning System

The NDMA in its National Monsoon Contingency Response Directive 2016iv has set out a detailed flood early warning mechanism for all stakeholders. These guidelines pertain to institutional responsibilities, timing/frequency of early warnings during normal and monsoon season, community early warning, and information management for communication of the same.

The FFD in Lahore has prime responsibility for issuing flood forecasts and warnings/advisories which are likely to occur during a 24-hour period based on rivers/rain gauge data and stream flow data provided by WAPDA and the provincial irrigation departments, respectively. Floods are forecast by means of a Hydro-Meteorological System based on proposed precipitation. Warnings generated from this system are communicated to the concerned government agencies and the media, as well as, the Flood Warning Centres for further necessary actionv. Provincial organisations and district level administrations are then responsible for coordinating regional and localised activities in response to PMD’s flood warnings.

Institutional Mandate and General Practices for Flood Forecasting and EWS in Pakistan

Name of the organisation Mandate for Flood Forecasting and EWS General Practices / SOPs

74 International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) and Federal Foreign Office, Government of Germany,

“Developing Early Warning Systems: A Checklist,” proceedings of Third International Conference on Early Warning

From concept to action, Germany, Bonn, 27-29 March 2006.

75 Government of Pakistan, National Disaster Management Authority, National Monsoon Contingency Response

Directive 2016.

Federal Flood Commission, Ministry of Water and Power

- Oversees flood forecasting and early warning system.

Flood Forecasting Division, Pakistan Meteorological Department

- Operates and manages flood forecasting and early warning system.

- Conducts model simulations, forecasts flood and issues early warnings to all organisations responsible for flood management and relief, as well as, the media.

- Prepares flood forecasts based on hydro-meteorological data from various national and international sources, including satellite data.

- Issues warnings/alerts of likely occurrence during a 24-hour period based on rivers/rain gauge data from WAPDA and stream flow data from provincial irrigation departments.

- Chief Meteorologist is solely responsible for dissemination of warnings to avoid any confusion and misinformation. No changes are allowed to forecast/alerts without the consent of Chief Met.

- Prepares and disseminates Daily Floods Bulletin (Forecasts) during monsoon season.

- Issues weather and flood forecast/advisory during normal conditions as follows: a) Monthly – 1st week of the month b) Weekly – every Monday

- Issues weather and flood forecast/advisory at the onset of floods as follows: a) Normal – every 24 hours b) High/Very High – every 6 hours c) Significant event – every hour d) Extreme event – maximum permissible time

before occurrence

- Issues warnings directly to NDMA, PDMAs, and other concerned agencies through SMS, email, and fax and immediately uploads this information on its website.

- Nominates a focal person authorised to deal with queries and matters related to weather and flood forecast and notifies the same to all concerned stakeholders.

Provincial Irrigation Departments

- Provides river flows data to assist FFD and FFC in generating flood forecasts.

- Establishes and operates Flood Warning Centre if requested by a PDMA during monsoon season for sharing flood flows data and timely dissemination of warning to relevant quarters.

- Issues early warnings of potential floods or canal breaches through TV, cable operators, police wireless network, etc.

- Flood Warning Centres remain operational during the monsoon season from June 15th to October 15th every year.

Pakistan Commissioner

for Indus Waters

- Provides/shares river flows data with India to be used by FFD in flood forecasting models.

- Receives Chenab river and Eastern rivers (Ravi and Sutlej) data once daily which is passed on to FFD for preparation and issuance of flood forecast.

- The frequency of data reception is increased to six-hourly basis and even hourly in case of the severe flood situation.

Water and Power Development Authority, Ministry of Water and Power

- Improves flood forecasting capability by providing rainfall and river data from telemetric rain gauge stations in catchment areas in the Indus River System to the FFD.

- WAPDA’s telemetric network is linked directly with FFD allowing both organisations to coordinate data collection. An officer whose office is located within premises of FFD looks after the network.

National Disaster Management Authority

- Issues flood advisories well in advance to all concerned stakeholders based on PMD flood alerts/warnings.

- Focal agency collaborating with PTA for issuing SMS alerts.

- Ensures establishment of disaster management authorities and emergency operations centres at the provincial, district and municipal levels in hazard-prone areas.

- Builds capacity of stakeholders through awareness raising activities in hazard-prone areas.

- Maintains SMS based early warning mechanism in collaboration with PTA and cellular companies.

- Concerned PDMA/DDMA sends draft SMS alert comprising 160 Roman Urdu letters to NDMA which forwards this via SMS to affected communities of the relevant tehsil/city.

- Displays these alerts on its website and shares it with media.

- Ensures ongoing media campaign (print/electronic/ social media), as well as, press releases, press briefings and media tickers to present a real-time

- Serves as the lead agency for liaison with NGOs and international agencies in disaster management.

picture of the developing situations and losses/ damages if any.

- Nominates an authorised spokesperson for interaction with media and issuance of official press releases. Joint briefings organised by NDMA and PMD when required.

Provincial Disaster Management Authorities

- Promotes general education, awareness and community training pertaining to all disasters including floods.

- Establishes flood warning and flood relief centres at the local government (district/tehsil) level.

- Relays PMD’s warnings as alerts for a specific area(s) and time period to District authorities and relevant stakeholders via fax, email, telephone, SMS etc.

- Sends draft SMS alerts to NDMA, 24 hours in advance, for dissemination.

- Displays the same SMS on its website and shares it with media.

- Updates website on 12 hourly bases during entire Monsoon season and every 3-6 hours in case of a significant event or flood situation.

- PUNJAB: All relevant departments are present at the Command, Control and Communication Center (3C) which serves as the coordination hub to plan and execute response activities. The 3C receives early warnings and issues this to the public, media, ministries, departments and humanitarian response agencies.

- SINDH, KPK AND BALOCHISTAN: PDMAs maintain horizontal coordination with several government line departments and autonomous bodies that generate an early warning, undertake search, rescue and relief while vertical coordination occurs with districts.

- FATA: A 24/7 Emergency Operation Centre (EOC) established in the headquarters of FDMA in Peshawar during flood season to receive early warnings and issue information of the public, media, line directorates of FATA and humanitarian agencies.

- AZAD JAMMU & KASHMIR (AJK): State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA) maintain horizontal coordination with government line departments and autonomous bodies that generate an early warning, undertake search, rescue and relief while vertical coordination occurs with districts. A State level Emergency Operation Centre remain active 24 hours for coordination among all districts.

Council of Common Interest - No role

Emergency Relief Cell (ERC), Cabinet Division

- No role

District administrations/DDMAs

- Relays alert received from PDMAs for a specific area(s) and time period to the affected communities through established mechanisms.

- Mobilises communities for disaster response in order to encourage community involvement.

- Conduct regular mock exercises and drills. - Agriculture and Social Welfare departments have

important roles in early warning.

- Coordinates local emergency response under respective district governments/DCOs/ Political Agents (FATA)/ CDA (ICT).

- Issues warnings and public service messages through print and electronic media to inform communities about threats, safer places, relief camps and evacuation plans by concerned departments.

- At the local level, the tehsil, town and union council staff usually issue public messages through mosques.

Pakistan Army Corps of Engineers

- Participates in the issuance of flood warnings. - An officer of 4 Corps Engineers is on duty in the Flood Warning Centre, Lahore.

- All flood forecasts and warnings are communicated to the CC Engineers 4 Corps which is transmitted to DG Engineers and all other CC of Engineers.

Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)

- Deploys satellite imagery capacities for disaster mitigation and for early warning of disaster occurrence and trends monitoring.

Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA)

- Facilitates generation of SMS alerts for early warning, emergency relief and evacuation in coordination with NDMA.

Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA)

- Disseminates information on preparedness issues in disaster management, public information on early warnings, and information on response and rehabilitation.

- Airs public service messages for community awareness on all media channels during prime hours.

- Educates public on early warnings, evacuation, public messages on the disaster to save lives and property, relays health messages to prevent communicable diseases, relays information on missing people and stranded communities as well as needs of survivors, the situation in relief camps.

- Relays advise from relevant government departments and authorities and humanitarian organisations to the general public.

National Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Network (NHEPRN), Cabinet Division

- Conducts hazard-based mapping of all health care facilities including vulnerability assessment.

- Set-up Disease Early Warning System (DEWS).

Ministry of Tourism - Provides timely weather/flood related information to

tourists including dangers of flash floods, landslides, GLOF etc.

- Facilitates evacuation of stranded tourists through local government/ Army.

Source: Annual Flood Report 2015; National Monsoon Contingency Response Directive 2015 and 2016; National Monsoon Contingency Plans 2012, 2013 and 2014; National Disaster Response Plan 2010; Provincial Monsoon Contingency Plans 2012; Indus Basin Floods: Mechanism, Impact and Management (ADB, 2013).

Disaster management authorities at national and provincial levels employ Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) such as cable television, radio stations, the internet and cellular technology for communicating timely and accurate warnings to the public. The irrigation, agriculture and social welfare departments also have an important role in early warnings. For instance, KPK’s provincial irrigation department has a Hydrology Department for monitoring floods through a network of gauging sites, which allows the department to provide 24-48 hours advance warning along Swat river, 5-7 hours along Kabul river and 36-48 hours along Indus at D.I. Khan76.

That DDMAs are not fully functional in many areas of Pakistan due to non-availability of key personnel and weak functioning/absence of the local government bodies is a veritable challengevi. Critical gaps exist in the stewardship of early warning systems in these areas due to institutional weaknesses at the lowest tier of government77. This has not only imposed limitations on local response capability of vulnerable populations but also rendered the entire system fragile in the event of a disaster. This gap is overcome to some extent by strengthening the community-based early warning system. Institutionalisation of the

76 Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Provincial Disaster Management Authority, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Monsoon

Contingency Plan 2012.

77 Simi Kamal, Dr. Pervaiz Amir, and Khalid Mohtadullah, Development of Integrated River Basin Management

(IRBM) for Indus Basin (WWF-Pakistan, 2012).

unconventional or indigenous flood EWS can improve the disaster response mechanism in flash floods and GLOF prone areas in particular78. An unconventional flood EWS involving watchmen, loudspeakers or megaphones, whistles, SMS alerts and telephone calls will not only enhance community awareness but also empower the local people for self-led action during floods.

Scope and Limitations of the System

Eighty-eight (88) of the total 145 districts in the country are classified as flood-prone districts, and of these, fifty (50) districts have a high risk of flash floods during the monsoon season. In terms of geographical coverage, thirty-nine (39) districts (i.e. 44 percent of flood prone districts) are covered by the flood forecasting and early warning system of Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS).79

Three kinds of flood forecast are possible: qualitative, quantitative, and early warning80. A qualitative flood forecast is intended to provide advance information about an approaching weather system that may bring a significant amount of rainfall so as to generate flood wave in the Indus basin river system. Three colour coded alerts (blue, yellow and red) are issued to alert the government agencies in case of possible floods between 24 to 72 hours period depending on the trajectory of the monsoon.

A quantitative Routine Daily Flood Forecast (RDFF) is issued daily, before midday, for a 24 hour period. It is based on the discharge measurements at 0600 hours PST, meteorological charts, latest APTvii pictures data of Lahore, Sialkot, Mangla and Islamabad radars and the Indian discharge data received through the Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters (PCIW). A Flood Warning (Significant Flood Forecast) is issued if the flood situation undergoes rapid fluctuations. Quite often this is a special forecast for a specific location mentioning the site, level (in cusecs), the intensity of flood level, and time it is expected. An Areal Flood Inundation Forecast is issued if the flood exceeds the exceptionally high flood level and there is inundation risk of areas along the river due to spillover.

Over the years flood management institutions in Pakistan have traditionally followed an engineering approach. Whilst non-structural measures increasingly gained focus in national flood protection plans from 1998 onwardsviii. The flood EWS was first initiated in 1975 when real-time VHF telemetry system was installed for collection of hydrological data from 16 river gauges and 24 rain gauges81. During the past four decades, however, over Rs.20 billion have been invested in around 1,400 flood protection sub-projects which include construction of flood protection infrastructure and up gradation of the forecasting and warning system82.

Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Facilities (Pakistan Meteorological Department)

PMD and WAPDA carried out improvements in and/or expansion of Flood Telemetry Network and Flood Forecasting and Warning System.

NFPP-I

(1977-87)

Establishment of a National Flood Forecasting Bureau (now FFD) under the auspices of PMD in Lahore. Installation of 10-cm QPM weather radar at PMD, Lahore to provide reliable quantitative precipitation forecasts

(QPF). Procurement and installation of 69 high-frequency (HF) radio sets. Procurement of a Meteor burst telecommunication (MBC) system for transmission of hydrometric data to the

National Flood Forecasting Bureau (NFFB) on a real-time basis.

NFPP-II

(1988-98)

78 Government of Pakistan, National Disaster Management Authority, National Monsoon Contingency Response

Directive 2016.

79 Nadeem Ahmad, Early warning systems and Disaster risk information, LEAD Pakistan National Briefing, 2015.

80 Pakistan Meteorological Department, SOP regarding Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (Section 2.3).

81 M. Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq and Nick Van De Giesen, “Floods and flood management in Pakistan,” Physics and

Chemistry of the Earth, 47-48 (2012): 11-20.

82 Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Water and Power, Annual Flood Report 2015.

Preparation of Flood Plain Maps for five reaches of Indus River (i.e. Chashma-Taunsa, Taunsa-Guddu, Guddu-Sukkur, Sukkur-Kotri and Kotri-Seas).

Procurement and installation of 24 high-frequency (HF) radio sets, 20 remote sensing stations and 10-cm weather radar (at Mangla).

Upgradation of existing 10-cm weather radar in Lahore and up gradation of 5.36-cm radar in Sialkot to 10-cm weather radar.

Development of preliminary version of Computer Based Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) through NESPAK, PMD and Delft Hydraulics. FEWS combines all rainfall and river flow models in one user-friendly computer package.

Expansion of Flood Plain Mapping covering major tributaries of River Indus i.e. Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej rivers.

NFPP-III

(1998-2008)

The existing forecasting and warning system nevertheless suffers from two basic limitations. First, it does not cover the entire Indus river basin which restricts the predictive capacity of the systemix. Second, the early warning system is only for riverine floods and not for flash floods with the exception of ‘Lai’ basinx. Its scope must be broadened in order for it to play an effective DRR role.

Other technical limitations of the system are83:

Prediction capability of medium to long-range forecasts is only 7 to 15 days. The accuracy of seasonal weather prediction is at 65-70 percent level. Availability of water discharge data in Eastern rivers depends on accurate and timely sharing of

information by India. The absence of telemetry system for flash floods in hill torrents of South Punjab, KPK, Balochistan,

AJ&K, GB and FATA which affects the early warning time for communities. The meteorological and hydrological sensors are outdated which affects the qualitative and

quantitative precision of weather forecastsxi.

It has to be stressed that procurement of modern flood forecasting apparatus does not ensure flood preparedness by itself. It must be combined with people-centered EWS in order to effectively prepare communities and minimise damage from impending floods. Identification of safe havens in the event of an evacuation, maintaining a stock of emergency relief goods like food and medicines, and arrangement of temporary shelters and transportation are essential for strengthening flood resilience. Furthermore, rehearsals and drills must be conducted on a routine basis so communities know how to interpret and respond to warnings when it is issued. This is especially important for communities from remote regions that do not hold significant economic, political, or strategic significance. Tariq and Van de Giesen criticise the guidelines set by the FFC for carrying “strategic biases” which prioritise the protection of areas of greater significance over those with “lesser influence”84. For such communities, even if the exposure to floods is low, higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity make them highly vulnerable to floods. An effective people-centred EWS for such communities is a necessity.

Non-observance of early warnings at the community level is a serious challenge. One highly localized and context specific reason is presented in the sub-section of this paper titled, Institutional Gaps and the need for institutional reform and strengthening. The general propensity to not heed warnings may be informed by the level of preparedness; trust in the institutions; prior experience with floods, as well as, behavioural tendencies and cultural practices of the people. In Pakistan’s context, there is generally low disaster risk awareness especially among women, children and other vulnerable persons. Factors like gender, socio-economic resources, ethnicity, religion, age and location can influence an individual or group’s vulnerabilities, resilience, adaptive capacity and response to disasters. Flood preparedness activities thus have to begin before the onset of floods and needs to be inclusive and participatory in order

83 Government of Pakistan, National Disaster Management Authority, National Monsoon Contingency Response

Directive 2016.

"All flood warning radars in Pakistan obsolete." Dawn, June 16, 2016. Accessed February 3, 2017.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1265195.

84 M. Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq and Nick Van De Giesen, “Floods and flood management in Pakistan,” Physics and

Chemistry of the Earth, 47-48 (2012): 11-20.

to work well. It is an unfortunate reality that these issues have traditionally received cursory attention in the policies, plans and guidelines of national and provincial level agenciesxii. The experience of recent floods also indicates that implementation is poor as far as early warnings to at-risk communities and better preparedness of flood managers and communities is concerned.

EWS in Practice: 2010 Onwards

As mentioned earlier, the FFD has prime responsibility for issuing warnings and advisories related to the flood situation for an upcoming 24 hour period. But the experience of recent floods is more indicative of breakdowns in the system. For example, during the megafloods in July-August 2010, PMD claimed that advance warning of at least 12 hours was issued whereas in reality warning was issued less than 12 hours before the flood peak in most cases (e.g. Kalabagh) with the duration as short as 30 minutes in at least one instance (as in case of medium to high flood at Tarbela)85.

From a technical perspective, the Hydro-Meteorological System of PMD is a more advanced system for predicting floods than the Hydrological Systemxiii. But a critical revelation of the judicial inquiry was the absence of qualitative (colour-coded) forecasts during the 2010 floods. Instead, PMD generated alerts based on real-time data received from WAPDA and irrigation departments86. This affected the warning time for downstream communities with critical implications for the security of lives, property, assets, livestock etcxiv. The available technology, in this case, did little to prevent the devastation caused by floods due in large measure to institutional inefficiency and mismanagement.

The transition from hazard monitoring stage to the dissemination of the early warning mandates a people-focused approach. An effective EWS needs to generate messages that translate into useable and actionable advice for its intended recipient whether government/non-government institution, aid agencies, community, and the media. Early warning alerts and messages must also be expressed in a language which reflects the urgency of a crisis. The judicial inquiry report opined that the quantitative forecasts issued at the time of megafloods in 2010 did not carry the necessary sense of alarm and urgency.

Moreover, as the contents of the formal risk alerts and early warning messages are mostly in English, it acts as a barrier to effective communication for large segments of the populationxv. The widespread penetration of ICTs and the increasing presence of cable TV and cellular technology in both urban and rural areas nevertheless presents an opportunity that can be capitalised for the collection of disaster risk information and communication of alerts in vernacular form. But here the role of PTA is critical in ensuring uninterrupted communication during disaster situations. The experience of the 2010 floods shows community EWS was largely ineffective in Sindh and AJ&K due to temporary severance of cellular and line communication networks87.

It is imperative that institutions at every level of government execute their responsibilities timely, effectively and collaboratively to minimise the physical, material and psychological damage from floods. This demands a change in thinking about floods and the recognition that flood control and management is not just a matter of water management. Rather a combination of timely information and flood preparedness has cross-sectoral benefits which can increase resilience and adaptive capacity of the local community. This, in turn, has positive implications for poverty alleviation, food security, energy efficiency, sustainable ecosystems and other development goals and priorities.

EWS – Accelerator intervention for SDGs?

A timely and reliable flood forecasting and warning system are thus integral to disaster risk reduction and mitigation efforts. It has the potential to minimise disruption during floods by way of maintaining an effective flow of information between government and non-governmental organisations and communities, expedite

85 Government of Pakistan, A Rude Awakening: Report of the Judicial Flood Inquiry Tribunal, 2010.

86 Ibid.

87 Government of Sindh, Provincial Disaster Management Authority, Sindh Provincial Monsoon/Floods Contingency

Plan 2012. State Disaster Management Authority, Monsoon Contingency Plan Azad Jammu & Kashmir 2012.

deployment of resources to strengthen critical flood infrastructure, provision of basic needs, and the speedy restoration of essential facilities and infrastructure in case of damage.

Despite the historical background consisting of three comprehensive national flood plans between 1978 and 2008, coupled with various policy and project documents highlighting the importance of multi-hazard early warning systems and response capacity, the 2010 floods highlighted major gaps that exist in Pakistan’s flood protection and management regime. Floods in subsequent years have caused less damage but the cumulative impact is still profound. According to Hyder and Iqbal, between 2010 – 2015 Pakistan has suffered over 4000 casualties on account of floods88.

The National Disaster Response Plan (NDRP) 2010, which was promulgated before the 2010 flood, was quick to acknowledge areas where there was a lack of capacity. It stated that: “Lack of coordination of these (government) agencies at the provincial/federal level and non-effective early warning system are the main grey areas. There is a lack of focus on preparedness because of the capacity and scarcity of resources”89

However, since the jolt of 2010, there seems to have emerged a positive trend in the Federal Government’s approach towards EWS and flood preparedness. One component of the flood protection and management regime is the annual pre-monsoon contingency plan, which sets the agenda for that year with regard to flood management. A review of contingency plans between 2012 – 2016 reveals a trend towards inclusiveness, risk-informed planning, and multi-sectoral preparedness.

EWS in Contingency Planning

The National Monsoon Contingency Plan 2012 has a section on Early Warning Systems, under which it specifies the roles of three institutions: Pakistan Meteorological Department; Flood Forecasting Division; and Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission. At other points in the document the role of WAPDA, Provincial Irrigation Departments, PDMAs and DDMAs in EWS is mentioned. However, in all cases, the communities vulnerable to floods are treated as passive recipients of scientifically generated weather and flood forecasts. Furthermore, there is no hint of customization or any indication of creating a mechanism for city/town/village specific warnings and instructions.

In January 2014, the NDMA formally initiated a bottom-up approach towards contingency planning, through which provincial and district governments were directed to contribute by undertaking their own assessments and identifying needs, among other tasks90. Though more relevant stakeholders and institutions were included in the Early Warning System, the emphasis still remained on generating warnings with scarce attention paid to its customization and usability by vulnerable communities.

The National Monsoon Contingency Response Directive 2015 took another step in the direction of community inclusiveness by distinguishing between ‘Flood Early Warning’ and ‘Early Warning to Community’91. The latter detailed a strategy for media engagement and cooperation with cellular companies to ensure that communities receive timely and appropriate warnings. The directive also highlighted the procurement of advance approval by NDMA and PTA from cellular service providers for free SMS alerts. The SMS is required to be drafted in Roman Urdu, and there is a mechanism for immediate dissemination (after approval) to communities most likely to be affected. Though there is sufficient emphasis on meeting the needs of each recipient community, it was a further year before the NDMA started moving towards a community-centred early warning system.

The National Monsoon Contingency Response Directive 2016, portrays the most nuanced and inclusive approach towards EWS by the Government of Pakistan to date. Firstly, the section on Early Warning distinguishes between ‘Flood Early Warning’ and ‘Community Early Warning’ – different from ‘Early Warning to Communities’ as highlighted in the National Monsoon Contingency Response Directive 2015. The former deals with the chain of communication that needs to be followed for timely dissemination of flood warning

88 (Hyder and Iqbal 2016)

89 National Disaster Management Authority, National Disaster Response Plan, (March 2010): 15

90 NDMA, National Monsoon Contingency Plan 2014, (2014)

91 NDMA, National Monsoon Contingency Response Directive 2015, (2015)

and other related alerts. The latter deals with ensuring usability of warning and its customization. The instructions specify the means of communication (SMS), the language (roman Urdu), and the length (160 characters) to make sure the threat is effectively and efficiently communicated. Furthermore, the directive adds a bottom-up element to flood early warning by specifying that the SMS will be drafted by the relevant PDMA and forwarded to NDMA for dissemination. The SMS is required to be tailored to the Tehsil/city so that areas that are unrelated to the threatened areas do not descend into panic, and that the communities under threat can mobilise themselves appropriately. Finally, the directive calls for community inclusion in the early warning system through the use of local watchmen, loudspeakers, whistles, SMS alerts, telephone calls, and other arrangements that can help institutionalise indigenous early warning systems used by communities that are historically vulnerable to flash floods and other hazards.92

Finally, another positive trend between 2012 and 2016 has been the gradually increasing inclusiveness in contingency planning, which increases the stake of effective EWS and its potential for building meaningful community resilience. With the little substantive mention of the specific and gendered needs of flood-vulnerable communities in 2012, 2013, and 2014, the National Monsoon Contingency Response Directive 2015 explicitly highlighted that the needs of vulnerable groups, women, children, aged persons, and the disabled remained neglected. The contingency directive for 2016 specifies that among other things, women’s security, privacy, health and hygiene needs; fair and equitable access to basic services; and psychological support personnel for women and children, during all stages of planning and response.

Acceleration towards No Poverty, Zero Hunger, and Climate Action

Reducing casualties from floods is the primary objective of EWS. Disaster preparedness protocols are rendered useless unless there is an effective EWS in place. Dasgupta goes as far as to suggest that an early warning system is the best strategy for mitigating the impacts of floods93. For flood-prone regions, it is a necessity. However, if used and combined effectively with disaster preparedness, an investment in EWS can have resilience building impacts across sectors and accelerate a flood-vulnerable country towards meeting its development targets or at least reducing set-backs on the road to these targets.

The new paradigm in global development is anchored in the Agenda for Sustainable Development 2030, which consists of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). For countries vulnerable to floods, a number of development targets are jeopardised by their inability to adapt to or cope with the impacts of flooding. To illustrate this point let us consider the cross-sectoral damage caused by the floods of 2010 in Pakistan, and areas where EWS could have increased resilience beyond just evacuation of personnel. We propose that calculations of return on investment for EWS take stock of these cross-sectoral benefits.

92 NDMA, National Monsoon Contingency Response Directive 2016, (2016)

93 Amrita Dasgupta, “Floods and Poverty Traps: Evidence from Bangladesh” Economic and Political Weekly, (2007):

3166–3171.

Box 1: SDG Targets Accelerated through EWS

1.5 By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters

2.1 By 2030, end hunger and ensure access by all people, in particular the poor and people in vulnerable situations, including infants, to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round

2.4 By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality

13.1 Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries

According to the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, Pakistan suffered the following losses due to the flood of 201094. It is accompanied in parenthesis by what goals would be affected if an SDG lens is used to view them. Some specific targets that are affected are mentioned in box 1.

US$ 10 Billion in overall damages (SDG 13)

US$ 5 Billion in damages to agriculture sector (SDG 2)

Drop in agriculture sector growth to 0.2 percent from 3.5 in 2009 (SDG 2)

2 million hectares of standing crops lost (SDG 2)

1 million tonnes of food and seed stocks damaged - 60% households lost most food grain stock and

55% lost half their seeds stock (SDG 2)

1.5 million animals and 10 million poultry lost coupled with decrease in milk production (SDG 2)

Drop in GDP to 1.6 percent from 2.8 percent in 2009 (SDG 8)

4.5 million workers affected – two-thirds were agricultural workers (SDG 8 and SDG 2)

Over 50% of expected income lost for 70% of farmers (SDG 1)

For those whose income fell by 75% or more, 45% were below the national poverty line (SDG 1)

Farmer’s debt doubled or tripled (SDG 1)

By strengthening EWS and ensuring that communities have sufficient time and opportunity to act, a number of the above-mentioned costs can be mitigated. There needs to be an acknowledgement that EWS cannot solve all problems related to floods. A part of disaster preparedness is managing people’s expectations with regard to what can be protected through the successful use of and response to EWS95. E.g. damage to standing crops is a function of geography and topography. Land-use change and/or engineering interventions that enable diversion or storage of water are plausible solutions. However, neither can be triggered with immediate effect using an early warning system and must be a part of Track One SDG Acceleration which looks at broader structural and institutional strengthening. On the other hand, food grain, seed stock, and livestock can be protected from flood-induced damages through a combination of: awareness of designated safe areas, flood resilient storage facilities or strategically elevated areas (for open storage), and an Early Warning System that allows for time to ensure that relevant storage and transportation protocols are implemented. Thus, through EWS countries that are vulnerable to flooding can ensure that their ambition to meet SDG targets 2.1 – access by all people to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round – and 13.1 – strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries– materialises.

Secondly, livestock is considered an asset in rural Pakistan. In many cases, livestock is sold to compensate for losses in crop-based and other income. By having a designated area/route for livestock evacuation and sufficient time, households can ensure that they have assets at their disposal after the flood has struck. Another opportunity provided by sufficient early warning is to collect essential documents such as National Identity Cards (CNIC), birth certificates, financial/land documents, etc. which are often required to access credit and relief funds. Such measures can prevent or at least reduce the need for taking loans and plunging into debt. Furthermore, an adequate warning can allow affected communities to coordinate with relatives and family members to facilitate evacuation/temporary migration and reduce the burden of displacement and relief. In addition to contributing to SDG targets 2.1 and 2.4, this also facilitates the achievement of target 1.5 – build the resilience of poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters.

Some of these EWS-dependent protocols were in place in Mansehra District of Pakistan during 2010. According to Mr Syed Harir Shah – a project manager for an NGO –, 500 homes and the tehsil hospital and police station were evacuated within 3 hours of the early warning being issued. The flood hit after three and

94 FAO, The impact of disasters on agriculture and food security, (2015)

95 UNISDR, Early Warning Practices can Save Many Lives: Good Practices and Lessons Learned. (Bonn: August

2010) : 29

a half hours and washed away the houses and the hospital. The early warning also allowed enough time for people to save precious belongings and livestock96.

96 Rina Saeed Khan, “Model early warning system in Mansehra”, Dawn (August 2013)

http://www.dawn.com/news/1038257

Conclusion

Despite considerable success in MDGs (2000-2015), several development challenges continued to persist. Reducing poverty is still a substantial challenge, economic progress is lagging behind population growth, people in rural areas and urban slums continue to face insecure employment and livelihood, environmental degradation continues to disrupt access to basic services and health environment and people and communities are regularly exposed to the risk of climate change. To complete the unfinished agenda of MDGs era and to bring benefits to poor and vulnerable groups, integrated and coherent development policies and practice is needed to accelerate the progress.

Advancing Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development mark a fundamental shift in development planning and management focusing on climate compatible, resource efficient, resilient, and inclusive forms growth. Integrated development underpins the SDGs to ensure balanced development across social, economic and environmental dimensions.

Effective reduction of losses and risks from extreme flood events with rapidly changing climate requires integrated actions at different levels of governance for countries with significant river basin. Pakistan government is facing huge challenges in creating policy coherence, political convergence and institutional coordination that integrates

Pakistan overall resilience policy regime has started to recognise strong linkage between disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, however, the flood protection policies and plan are yet to fully materialise the climate risks into planning and implementation. Moreover, there already dedicated legal and non-legal instruments governing disaster management, and action plans for climate change adaptation, however, the provinces need to catch up as each sub-national unit has its peculiar risks and development challenges.

Although disaster risk reduction and climate change risks have been mainstreamed in national development plans, both vertical and horizontal institutional integration are major challenge. Maintaining and strengthening cross-sectoral and multi-level collaboration is, therefore, critical to ensure the effective implementation of integrated disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation efforts

Methodology

Research Question

Guiding Questions

The overall guiding questions are

1. How policy makers identified, designed and implemented flood resilience in Pakistan?

2. How flood resilience dynamics can generate acceleration towards implementation of the sustainable

development goals?

The following questions guide the evaluation of broader policy are (Flood Protection) and specific case (Early Warning System)

1. To what extent has integrated approaches have been mainstreamed into the National Flood Protection

Plans?

2. How did collective learning and adaptation occur during this time period?

3. How effectively have these Plans built community resilience to floods?

4. How have these Plans affected the development of other sectors on a national planning level? (cross

sectoral linkages/relationships)

NOTES

i Gender refers to socially-constructed relationships that define social spaces and determine availability or non-availability of opportunities to women, men, girls, boys, or transgender persons. Gender relations are often renegotiated or reproduced during a natural disaster or hazard situation making gender-inclusive EWS all the more important.

ii Structural measures involve construction of flood protection infrastructure (e.g. embankments, spurs, dykes and flood walls, dispersion and diversion structures, bypass structures, etc.) which alters the natural environment.

iii These four inter-related elements of people-centered EWS serve as a non-technical guideline for developing and/or evaluating early warning systems.

iv Para 14 of the Directive deals exclusively with early warnings.

v Flood Warning Centres of all flood related agencies are operational during monsoon season from June 15th until October 15th every year for collection of weather and flood flows data.

vi Implementation gaps following the 18th Constitutional Amendment mean that administrative and fiscal powers have not fully devolved to the lowest tier of government as envisaged under the devolution plan. The removal or abeyance of local bodies at the time of 2010 floods created a vacuum of local leadership and chain of command that could otherwise have mobilized systematically in response to warnings.

vii Automatic Picture Transmission (APT) system is an analog image transmission system developed for use on weather satellites.

viii Flood EWS was developed under Flood Protection Sector Project (FPSP).

ix Catchment areas of Kabul and Swat rivers are beyond the current radar coverage of the FFD. Large number of casualties and economic loss was reported in this area during the 2010 floods.

x “Nallah Lai” is a hill torrent flowing through twin cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi. It lies in the catchment area of Margalla Hills and is frequently hit by flash floods during the monsoon season.

xi The latest radar was installed at Mangla in 2004 whereas average life of a weather system radar is 10 years. All seven flood warning radars in Pakistan are thus obsolete and need to be replaced. The proposed Rs.7 billion EWS project (including 21 radars) has not been mobilized due to shortage of funds.

xii There is no specific communication and response strategy for early warning in the National Monsoon Contingency Plans prior to 2015. Also the Provincial level plans (2012) neither offers response mechanisms to early warnings at the local level nor prescribes pre-disaster preparedness measures such as regular drills/rehearsals that establish community level learning and best practices in response to warnings.

xiii A Hydrological System estimates floods based on measurement of run-off water.

xiv Both PMD and FFD were fully aware of the likelihood of extreme monsoon as early as June 2010 (implying 2-3 weeks of warning) but failed to systematically mobilize, inform and communicate the warning to downstream communities.

xv Nowadays SMS alerts in case of floods are issued in Roman Urdu; however, interpretation would require basic understanding of the Roman script.