Integrated Life Cycle Managementg(ILCM)

Charles A. MengersSenior Project Manager

2011 Second Utility Workshop on U.S. Nuclear Plant Life Extension and DeploymentFebruary 24 2011February 24, 2011

Subject

Wh t ill it t t f l d li bl t lWhat will it cost to safely and reliably operate a nuclear plant beyond the original and extended license period?

2© 2011 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Background

• Industry initiatedS• Standardized data and evaluation process

• Identification SSC refurbishment / replacement – Above baseline modifications– Above baseline modifications– T+5 to end of operations– Outcomes determined to minimize cost and maximize

reliabilityreliability• Forecast and Collaborate• EPRI

– Integrated Life Cycle Management (ILCM)– Long Term Operation (LTO)

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Vision

The Integrated Life Cycle Management (ILCM) project will:g y g ( ) p j

• Provide a standard methodology to support effective decision-making for the long-term management of selected station assets.

• Provide technology to provide a sound basis forcontin ed operation of the c rrent n clear plants atcontinued operation of the current nuclear plants at high performance levels through 2030 and beyond.

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Approach

Technical lens:• Identify major plant equipment (SSC) that drive cost (high

cost – high consequence)U d t d SSC b h i d t i• Understand SSC behavior due to aging

• Determine probability of failure over time to end of plant lifelife

• Roll up into plant level asset• Develop evaluation process for optimizing long range

strategy optimum scenario for long range plan

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Basic Principles

1 B ild i ti th d d t l t1. Build on existing methods and tools – we are not starting from scratch.

2 Utilize a fundamental understanding of how degradation2. Utilize a fundamental understanding of how degradation occurs.

3. Compared against OE from operating nuclear plants.4. Failure curves will be plant-specific.5. Benchmarked against pilot plants.

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Concept of the Methodology

ATE

"Bath Tub Curve"

Component Aging ModelComponent Aging Models are developed for selected equipment and structures Wearout

HA

ZAR

D R

A

Run-in Design Life

Component Aging Model

COMPONENT LIFE

CLE

CO

ST

PR

OB

ABIL

ITY

Rep

lace

men

t

Component Cost Models are developed – considering

l t t

Component Cost Model

LIFE

CYC

LIFE EXPECTANCY

Design Life FAIL

UR

EPreplacement costs,

maintenance costs, and consequences of failure.

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Integrated Life Cycle Cost

ILCC component models - Integrate the Component Cost Model - LCMIntegrated Life Cycle Cost (ILCC)

probability of failure from the aging model with costs and consequences to determine optimum replacement times

FE C

YCLE

CO

ST

ILU

RE

PR

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ABIL

ITY

Rep

lace

men

t

LI

LIFE EXPECTANCY

Design Life FA

$39

RA

TE

"Bath Tub Curve"

Component Aging Model

$36 

$37 

$38 

$39 

Millions)

Base Case

Optimum Time of Replacement

Wearout

HA

ZAR

D R

COMPONENT LIFE

Run-in Design Life

$

$33 

$34 

$35 ILCC

 (M

Replacement too early

Higher Cost due to Forced Outage

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$32 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035Year

Apply across Plant or Fleet

Integrate individual component and structure replacement strategies for plant or fleet wide

Integrated Life Cycle Cost (ILCC) Integrated Life Cycle Management (ILCM)

p g passessment

E C

OST

OB

ABIL

ITY

plac

emen

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Component Cost Model - LCM

ReplaceRefurbishMaintain

LIFE

CYC

LE

LIFE EXPECTANCY

Design Life FAIL

UR

EP

RO

Rep Augmented Maint.

Monitor

RD R

ATE

"Bath Tub Curve"

Component Aging Model

9© 2011 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Wearout

HAZA

R

COMPONENT LIFE

Run-in Design Life

Two Phased Approach

Phase 1:Develop methods for determining long term likelihood• Develop methods for determining long-term likelihood of failure curves.

• Apply to selected structures and components.pp y pPhase 2:• Collaboration with EDF • Assess existing optimization methods • Refine models to provide desired results.

P f il t• Perform pilot• Move to deployment

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Project Deliverables

1 Methods and data to calculate failure probability1. Methods and data to calculate failure probability.2. Industry data base for long-term component and

structure aging.3. Methodology to calculate optimum replacement time.4. Pilot results.5. EPRI Technical Report.

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Success

• Reliability data– Method proven for in scope SSCs (High Cost/High Consequence)– Simplified template for medium cost/medium consequence SSCs

• ILCM DatabaseILCM Database– Database structured, defined, tested and working

• ILCM/EDF model reconciled, changed, tested, and working

• EPRI Guideline • User accepted and incorporated into their decision• User accepted and incorporated into their decision-

making process

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Together Shaping the Future of ElectricityTogether…Shaping the Future of Electricity

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