integrating climate change into northeast and midwest ... · 1. overview of report development 2....
TRANSCRIPT
Michelle D. Staudinger Toni Lyn Morelli Alexander M. Bryan
Integrating Climate Change into Northeast and Midwest State Wildlife Action Plans
NE CSC Webinar October 7, 2015
Acknowledgements Ray Bradley Chris Caldwell Ethan Coffel Elizabeth Crisfield Tony D’Amato Bill DeLuca Eleonora Demaria Colton Ellison Fanxing Fan Evan Grant Laura Hilberg Radley Horton
Steve Jane Maria Janowiak Ambarish Karmalkar Rachel Katz Olivia LeDee Steve Matthews Chris Neil Liang Ning Keith Nislow Richard Palmer Ken Potter Erika Rowland
Chris Swanston Karen Terwilliger Frank Thompson Kris Winiarski NA, ETGBR, GCPO, & UMGL LCCs NEAFWA, MAFWA
Talk Outline 1. Overview of report development 2. Climate change in the Northeast
and Midwest U.S. 3. Biological responses to regional
climate impacts 4. Species and habitats at greatest risk
and most vulnerable to climate impacts
5. Scale-appropriate adaptation strategies and actions
6. Applications of synthesis
NE CSC Strategic Science Objectives
To identify science that best informs management needs in a changing climate, and helps translate science results into management decisions, and adaptation strategies.
“To achieve success, affect a plan you must”
– Shawn Carter (NCCWSC)
• Stakeholder-driven science • Co-production of science • Actionable science
State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs)
• Revised every 10 years • Deadline October 1, 2015 • Challenged to incorporate climate change
into current revisions • Proactive, comprehensive wildlife
conservation strategies that asses the health, challenges, and potential actions each State would like to accomplish
• Mandate by Congress to receive funding through Wildlife Conservation and Restoration and State Wildlife Grants Programs
Barriers to Incorporating Climate Change
• Too much information, too little information, information at the wrong scale
• Lack of guidance, expertise, decision support
• Capacity – financial and personnel constraints
• Overwhelmed by uncertainty
• Making connections • “Tell us what you want” vs. “tell us
what we need” • Co-production of an outline
Report Challenges
Climate Data Menu It’s what’s for dinner
• Air temperature • Precipitation • Solar radiation • Surface runnoff • Snow melt • Growing degree days • Frost days • Consecutive dry days • Extreme wet days
• Regional scope of the NE CSC region • Timing
Report Timeline
• Author teams assembled
• Literature reviews start
• Write, write, write!
• First draft completed
• USGS FSP expert review conducted
• Courtesy review copy delivered to the States
January 2015
September 2014
May 2015
• Final report released
• Promotion • Outreach and
engagement with States
• Co-development of report outline
• Content scoping
June 2015
Hurricane Sandy
NASA Earth Observatory image by Robert Simmon with data courtesy of the NASA/NOAA GOES Project Science team
Climate Data Menu
60+ variables
Getting at the climate needs… Vernal pools and salamanders How will climate change affect the “timing of pool filling during the fall and the duration of pool inundation through the spring?” Where in MA will pool hydrology be inadequate?
Breeding migration How will the “frequency of rain events during March, April, August, and September” change?
NH Fish & Game
CT Dept. Energy & Env. Protection
“I was given very little time to choose which variables to request, and so I took the approach of requesting just about everything that would affect pool hydrology and migratory opportunity and hoping
that the details could all be sorted out later! Is this helpful?”
Contents I. MANAGING IN AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE: GUIDELINES FOR
INTERPRETING THIS DOCUMENT II. WIDESPREAD CHANGES IN THE NORTHEAST AND MIDWEST
I. Surface air temperature II. Precipitation III. Atmospheric moisture IV. Wind V. Surface hydrology VI. Extreme events VII. Biological indices
III. SUB-REGIONAL ANALYSES I. U.S. Atlantic coast II. Great Lakes III. Appalachians
Guidance on interpretation • Clarification of terms
– Projections, predictions, forecasts, scenarios
– Likely, unlikely, certain, uncertain, may, etc.
• Sources of uncertainty, briefly!
• Not everything is uncertain
• Strategies for overcoming uncertainty paralysis
Term Likelihood of the Outcome
Very likely 90 – 100% chance
Likely 66 – 100% chance
About as likely as not 33 – 66% chance
Unlikely 0 – 33% chance
Very unlikely 0 – 10% chance
Numerical definitions of terms used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
Adapted from Mastrandrea et al. 2010
Widespread Changes USGS National Climate Change Viewer
Ning et al. 2015
Widespread Changes
Groisman et al. 2013
Heavier rainfalls
Longer dry spells
NCA
U.S. Atlantic Coast, Great Lakes, Appalachians Storm surge damage from Hurricane Sandy
DOI
NASA Earth Observatory
Great Lakes Ice Coverage
NPS
Higher warming at higher elevations?
Fascinating Findings Lake effect snow
NASA Earth Observatory
NatureServe
Net drying? More dry (high AET:PET ratio)
Less dry (low AET:PET ratio)
Great Unknowns Hawkins & Sutton 2009
Peterson et al. 2013
Dan Hocking
Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need
• 367 species • Identified by the Northeast Fish & Wildlife Diversity Tech Comm • Based on
o conservation status o listing in SWAPs o % of range in the NE
Also searched precipitation, flood, storm, & drought
Species Name Climate
Biological Responses to Climate Change in the NE and MW
• Climate change will have cascading effects • Shifts in timing, distribution, abundance, & interactions • Montane birds, salamanders, cold-adapted fish, and
freshwater mussels could be particularly sensitive • Don’t forget indirect effects • Strategies for increasing resilience:
– ↑ Habitat connectivity – ↑ Water quality – ↓ Invasives
Common Name Scientific Name Model Predictions Common Loon Gavia immer ↓ Mallard Anas platyrhynchos ↓↓ Blue-winged Teal Anas discors (↑) Canada Goose Branta canadensis (↓) White Ibis Eudocimus albus ↑ Great Blue Heron Ardea herodias (↓) Great Egret Ardea alba ↑↑ Snowy Egret Egretta thula (↑) Little Blue Heron Egretta caerulea ↑↑ Common Snipe Gallinago gallinago ↓↓ Spotted Sandpiper Actitis macularia ↓ Northern Bobwhite Colinus virginianus ↑↑ Ruffed Grouse Bonasa umbellus ↓ Ring-necked Pheasant Phasianus colchicus ↓↓ Rock Dove Columba livia ↓↓ Mourning Dove Zenaida macroura ↑
Predictions of Species-Specific Habitat Shift Due to Climate Change
Matthews et al. 2007, www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/
Kevin T. Karlson
Kevin T. Karlson
Change in Landscape Capability McGarigal and DeLuca (2014)
Species Δ LC by 2080 American woodcock -9% Blackburnian warbler -71% Blackpoll warbler -66% Eastern meadowlark +17% Wood turtle -2% Louisiana waterthrush +14% Marsh wren +40% Moose -3% Northern waterthrush -70% Prairie warbler -18% Ruffed grouse -54% Saltmarsh sparrow -59% Wood duck +37% Wood thrush -1%
http://www.umass.edu/landeco/research/dsl/dsl.html Gerritt Vyn
Flying Squirrels: A Model of the Indirect Effects of Climate Change
Glaucomys sabrinus
http://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/ Prasad et al.
Climate Change Tree Atlas Potential Future Forest Type Changes
Flying Squirrels: A Model of the Indirect Effects of Climate Change
Don Chernoff
Glaucomys volans USFS
Roger Barbour Krichbaum et al. 2010
UNH HCGS
Smith 2012
NORTHEAST AND MIDWEST REGIONAL SPECIES AND HABITATS AT GREATEST RISK AND MOST
VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE IMPACTS
Michelle Staudinger (USGS, NE CSC) Laura Hilberg (UMass, EcoAdapt)
Maria Janowiak (NIACS, USFS) Chris Swanston (NIACS, USFS)
Adaptive capacity
Exposure Sensitivity
Potential impact
Vulnerability
Figure adapted from Glick et al. 2011
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments
• Tools used as an initial step in adaptation planning
• Identify species and habitats at greatest risk from climate change
• Descriptions of why species/habitats are vulnerable
• Provide index of relative vulnerabilities
• Inform conservation strategies designed to reduce those vulnerabilities
Synthesis of Regional Vulnerability Assessments
• Information from 21 vulnerability assessments • Most common frameworks:
o Species: NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) o Habitats: The Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF)
• 31% of all fish and wildlife species assessed multiple times (e.g., by location or life cycle phase) • 35% of habitats assessed multiple times (e.g., across or within areas, studies)
Icons courtesy of ian.umces.edu/symbols/
Vulnerability Ranking Categories
Framework 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Natureserve CCVI Extremely Vulnerable
Highly Vulnerable:
Moderately Vulnerable
Presumed Stable
Increase Likely
Manomet & MADFW 2010
7 6 5 3 3 2 1
Manomet & NWF 2013
Critically Vulnerable
Highly Vulnerable
Vulnerable Less Vulnerable
Least Vulnerable
Tetratech, Inc. 2013
Extremely Vulnerable
Highly Vulnerable
Moderately Vulnerable
Slightly Vulnerable
Not Vulnerable /
No effect
Increase Possible or
LikelyWhitman et al., 2014
High Vulnerability
Medium Vulnerability
Low Vulnerability
ASGSCCC 2010: Habitats
High Vulnerability
Medium Vulnerability
Low Vulnerability
ASGSCCC 2010: Species
Large Decrease
Moderate Decrease
Minimal Decrease
No Change Minimal Increase
Moderate Increase
Large Increase
Galbraith et al. 2014
Critical Highly Imperiled
High Concern Moderate Concern
Low Concern Not at Risk
CCRFHigh Moderate-
HighModerate Low-
ModerateLow
Extremely vulnerable Least vulnerable
0
100
200
300
400
500
Bird
Fish
(Fre
shw
ater
)
Inse
ct
Mam
mal
Fish
(Mar
ine)
Fres
hwat
er M
usse
l
Inve
rteb
rate
(Oth
er)
Rept
ile
Amph
ibia
n
Inve
rteb
rate
(Mar
ine)
# of
Ass
essm
ents
Vulnerability Assessments by Taxonomic Group
Icons courtesy of ian.umces.edu/symbols/
• 14 studies (4 ongoing) • 999 species • 1,524 assessment records
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Fres
hwat
er M
usse
l
Amph
ibia
n
Fish
Inse
ct
Rept
ile
Inve
rteb
rate
(Oth
er)
Mam
mal
Bird
% o
f CCV
I ran
king
s
Taxonomic group
Vulnerable Fish and Wildlife
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Fish
(Mar
ine)
Inve
rteb
rate
(Mar
ine)
Amph
ibia
n
Fish
Bird
Mam
mal
Rept
ile
Fres
hwat
er M
usse
l
Inse
ct
Taxonomic group
CCVI studies (N = 6) Non-CCVI studies (N = 4)
Extremely vulnerable Least vulnerable
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forest FreshwaterWetland
FreshwaterAquatic
Coastal Cliffs &Rocky
Outcrops
Heathland&
Grassland
Tundra
# of
Ass
essm
ents
Habitat type
Vulnerability Assessments by Habitat Type
Icons courtesy of ian.umces.edu/symbols/
• 11 studies • 82 habitats • 224 assessment records
Vulnerable Habitats
CCRF studies (N = 5)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Tund
ra
Fres
hwat
erAq
uatic
Coas
tal
Fres
hwat
erW
etla
nd
Fore
st
Heat
hlan
d an
dGr
assla
nd
Cliff
s and
Roc
kyO
utcr
ops
Habitat type
Non-CCRF studies (N = 5)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Appa
lach
ian
Nor
ther
n…
Low
-Ele
vatio
n Sp
ruce
-Fir
Fore
st
Low
land
Con
ifer F
ores
t
Red
Pine
-Whi
te P
ine
Fore
st
Aspe
n-Pa
per B
irch
Fore
st
Jack
Pin
e Fo
rest
Low
land
and
Rip
aria
n…
Cent
ral M
esic
Har
dwoo
ds F
ores
t
Oak
-Pin
e W
oodl
and
Fire
-Dep
ende
nt F
ores
t
Laur
entia
n-Ac
adia
n N
orth
ern…
Jack
Pin
e-Re
d Pi
ne B
arre
ns a
nd…
Nor
ther
n O
ak-P
ine-
Hard
woo
d…
Cent
ral H
ardw
oods
Oak
-Pin
e…
Fres
hwat
er W
etla
nd -
Bogs
and
…
Heat
hlan
d an
d Gr
assla
nd -
Glad
e
% V
ulne
rabi
lity
rank
ings
Appa
lach
ian
Nor
ther
n Ha
rdw
ood
Fres
hwat
er w
etla
nd –
Bog
s & fe
ns
Habitat type
Extremely vulnerable Least vulnerable
Vulnerability Assessment Synthesis Appendices
Additional Resources and Future Directions
Michelle Staudinger (USGS; NE CSC) Laura Hilberg (UMass; EcoAdapt)
Maria Janowiak (NIACS, USFS) Chris Caldwell (CMN, NE CSC)
Anthony D’Amato (UVT, UMN, NE CSC) Evan Grant (USGS)
Radley Horton (Columbia Unv, NE CSC) Rachel Katz (USGS)
Chris Neiil (MBL, NE CSC) Keith Nislow (USFS, UMass, NE CSC)
Ken Potter (Unv. WI, NE CSC) Erika Rowland (WCS)
Chris Swanston (NIACS, USFS) Frank Thompson (Unv MO, NE CSC)
Kristopher Winiarski (UMass, NE CSC)
SCALE-APPROPRIATE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND ACTIONS IN THE NORTHEAST AND
MIDWEST UNITED STATES
Climate Change Adaptation: Managing for Change
• “Stationarity is dead” → managing for change
• Consideration of uncertain future projections as well as historic conditions
• Emphasis on landscape-scale conservation, connectivity among protected habitats, and ecological functioning
• Identify and assess risks and vulnerabilities that are likely to affect an ecosystem or community
• Develop goals and actions to minimize impacts
• Establish a process to implement actions
• Take action • (Re)assess the effectiveness of
those actions
Adaptation Concepts and Frameworks
Figure from Janowiak et al., 2014. J. Forestry.
Processes for Adaptation Planning and Implementation
Scenario Planning
Present
Possible future #1
#2
#3 #4
Structured Decision Making
National-Scale Broad scale goals
Landscape / Ecoregional Scale Partnerships and connections
across large landscapes; diffuse actions
State-Scale
Strategies; planning
Local-Scale
Implementation; monitoring
• Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs)
• Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science (NIACS)
• Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy (SECAS)
National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation
Strategy (NFWPCAS)
State Adaptation
Plans
NIACS Adaptation Workbook
Adaptation Strategies: From Conception to Implementation
• Aquatic systems • Forests • Terrestrial wetlands • Coastal habitats • Tribal lands
• Landscape Conservation Design
• Conservation Opportunity Areas
• Climate Change Resource Center
• Climate Change Response Framework
• CT • MA • NH
• VT • RI
• 7 overarching goals; ~25 sub-strategies
Local Case Studies in Regional Adaptation
Headwater stream species of special conservation concern include
brook trout & stream salamanders Potomac and Merrimack Watersheds
Project is using decision theory and tools to help stakeholders collaboratively create adaptive strategies that protect headwater ecosystems from climate and other stressors
Landscape Scale Decision Making for Headwater Stream Ecosystem Conservation PIs: E. Grant, R. Katz, M. Runge, A. Roy, B. Letcher
Synthesis of Adaption Strategies and Actions
Target Resource
Target Species or Habitat Climate Stressor
Source Document Descriptor Location
G1: Conserve habitat
G2: Protect ecosystem functions
G3: Enhance capacity
Coastal, Marine Sea-level Rise Land protection MA
Terrestrial Wetland Freshwater Marsh Multiple
Policy, flexible regulation, planning, and funding NH 3
Forest Multiple
Policy, flexible regulation, planning, and funding Northwoods 3
Freshwater Aquatic
Freshwater Fish and Other Aquatic Species Multiple
Management and restoration MA 1 2
General Multiple Conserve areas US 1
Appendix 4.1: Synthesis of over 960 adaptation strategies by scale, target resource, and climate stressor from nine regional adaptation studies.
Example Adaptation Strategy: Identify and prioritize protection of migration corridors between wetland areas and between wetlands and the associated upland habitat including large resilient parcels connected by migration corridors. Planning should include both aquatic and terrestrial connectivity.
The SWAPs and Beyond
• A regional guide and resource on: o What has already been done o Ongoing adaptation work o What is known / not known
How did we envision the report being used? • Guide for SWAP writing and revisions on climate change • Direct use of text and figures • Demonstration of the applicability of existing climate and
adaptation tools
Affecting Plans “The report is exactly what states needed for our Plans” –PA Game Commission; Bureau of Wildlife Management “(The report) has really helped us think more clearly in this - AND
definitely helped us in making the decision to separate climate change from the threats chapter into its own Chapter” – MD Department of Natural Resources
“I'm sure this report will have great utility even beyond the SWAP revision process…we may put together a similar report in (our region) and this will serve as a useful template” – USGS reviewer
“We will be producing a regional threat assessment…based on the 2015 SWAPs…(the) report will be an important reference as we move into regional planning and state-level implementation.” – Terwilliger Consulting, Inc.
Questions?
Acknowledgements Ray Bradley Chris Caldwell Ethan Coffel Elizabeth Crisfield Tony D’Amato Bill DeLuca Eleonora Demaria Colton Ellison Fanxing Fan Evan Grant Laura Hilberg Radley Horton
Steve Jane Maria Janowiak Ambarish Karmalkar Rachel Katz Olivia LeDee Steve Matthews Chris Neil Liang Ning Keith Nislow Richard Palmer Ken Potter Erika Rowland
Chris Swanston Karen Terwilliger Frank Thompson Kris Winiarski NA, ETGBR, GCPO, & UMGL LCCs NEAFWA, MAFWA