integrating economic and ecological models for environmental decision making

7/28/2019 Integrating Economic and Ecological Models for Environmental Decision Making

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Integrating Economic and

Ecological Models forEnvironmental Decision

Making:

a Participatory Community

Based Approach

Alexey A. Voinov

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Alexey Voinov - Decision Analysis - Cincinnati, 2009

Why Integrate?

Too many of us and we want too much

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Why Integrate?


The impact is global

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Why Integrate?



Systems approach = everything is connected =everything is more complex than something

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Why Integrate?




Lots of legacy models

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Why Integrate?





Computers got better

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Why Integrate?





Computers got better

Software got better

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Integrating What?

Integrated models = models that includeecological, economic, social, etc. processes

Model integration = models that are made ofother models treated as modules or components

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Integrated models

Club of Rome models - World3(http://www.whole-systems.org/world3.html)

food system (agriculture and food production)

industrial system

population system

non-renewable resources system

pollution system.

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Integrated models

Club of Rome models - World3(http://www.whole-systems.org/world3.html)

food system (agriculture and food production)

industrial system

population system

non-renewable resources system

pollution system.

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Integrated models

Club of Rome models - World3 Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere(GUMBO)(http://ecoinformatics.uvm.edu/projects/the-gumbo-model.html)

Geology Global Climate Sociology Economics Atmosphere

Ecosystems

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Integrated models

Atmosphere

Anthropo-sphere

EcosystemServices

HumanImpacts

Natural Capital Human-madeCapital(includes Built CapitalHuman Capital,and Social Capital

SolarEnergy

Hydrosphere

Lithosphere

Biosphere

11 Biomes

From: Boumans, R., R.Costanza, J. Farley, M. A.Wilson, R. Portela, J.Rotmans, F. Villa, and M.Grasso. 2002. Modelingthe Dynamics of theIntegrated Earth Systemand the Value of GlobalEcosystem ServicesUsing the GUMBOModel. EcologicalEconomics 41: 529-560

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Biosphere

Soil formation

Autotroph Mortality

Decomposer Mortality

Consumer Mortality

Autotrophs

Decomposers

Consumers

Consumption

GPP

Decomposer Growth

Autotroph net Harvest

Consumer Harvest

Autotrophe Respiration

Decomposer Respiration

Consumer Respiration

Dead Organic Matter

DOM spatial exchange

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Built Capital

Knowledge

GOODS

&

SERVICES

Knowledge Formation

Built Capital Formation

Social Capital Formation

Social Capital

Labor Force

Ecosystem Goods Production

Fossil Fuel Extraction

Organic Matter Harvested

Ecosystem Services Production

Ore Production

Economic

Production

Natural Capital Formation

Water use

WASTE

Disturbance Regulation

Gas Regulation

Climate Regulation

Soil Formation

Recreation and Cultural Services

Plant Nutrient Uptake

Waste Assimilation Potential

Personal Consumption

Economic

ProductionSavings rates

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Well being

Well being from human made capital

Knowledge

Social Capital

Well being from waste

Well being from consumption

Well being from Ecosystem Goods

Organic Matter Production

Well being from Ecosystem Services

Built Capital

Fresh Water production

Fossil Fuel Extraction

Ore Production

Well being

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23

22

21

20

C

Global Temp

1200

1100

1000

900

800

700

GigaTonC

Atmospheric

Carbon

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

meters

Sea level12

10

8

6

4

2

0

GigaTo

nC

Fossil Fuel

extraction

BiophysicalVariables

ObservationsScenarios

Base CaseStar Trek (ST)Big Government (BG)Mad Max (MM)Eco-Topia (ET)

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4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0SocialCapitalIndex(SCI)

21002050200019501900

Year

Social Network

2000

1500

1000

500

0

trill.1

998USDollars Knowledge

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

trill.

1998US

Dollars Built Capital

800

600

400

200

01000USDollars(199

8)perperson

Built capitalper capita

300

250

200

150

100

50

01000USDo

llars(1998)perperson

Knowledgeper capita

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

SCIperbillionpeople

21002050200019501900

Year

Social networkper capita

Scenarios

Base CaseStar Trek (ST)Big Government (BG)

Mad Max (MM)

Eco-Topia (ET)

Socio-economic Variables

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Club of Rome models - World3 Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere(GUMBO)

Threshold 21 (T21) - Millennium Institute(http://www.millenniuminstitute.net/integrated_planning/tools/T21)

18 sectors: 6 social sectors, 6 economic sectors, and 6 environmentalsectors

more than a thousand equations, about 60 stock variables, and severalthousands feedback loops

Integrated models

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Integrated models

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Integrated models

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T21 validation

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T21 validation

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Model integration

One model cannot be sufficient to represent allthe details needed for decision making and

planning

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Model integration


planning

Legacy models that can be reused as buildingblocks for more complex systems

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Model integration


planning

Legacy models that can be reused as buildingblocks for more complex systems

Linking problem matching the variables, scales andresolutions

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Model integration

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Suite Airshed Model - 12 km grid CMAQ

Phase 5 Watershed Model - 308 land segments, 17 landuse types, 930 rivers running HSPF

Water Quality and Sediment Transport Model (WQSTM)with additions of filter feeders, SAV, fish, etc.

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Model integration

Decision Support System

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Percent of Space

PercentofTime

CFD Curve

Area of CriteriaExceedence

Area of AllowableCriteria

Exceedence

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Percent of Space

PercentofTime

CFD Curve

Area of CriteriaExceedence

Area of AllowableCriteria

Exceedence

Airshed Model,Land Change Model,Data

WatershedModel

BayModel

CriteriaAssessmentProcedures

Effects

Allocations

http://www.chesapeakebay.net/committee_msc_info.aspx

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Model integration

SEAMLESS - System for Environmental andAgricultural Modeling: Linking European Scienceand Society

Combining micro and macro level analysis, addressing economic,environmental and social issues, and facilitating the re-use of models and

providing methods to conceptually and technically link different models

http://www.seamless-ip.org/

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Model integration

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Model integration

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Model linking: architectures

US EPA - FRAMES (Framework for Risk Analysis inMulti-media Environmental Systems) - system tomanage the execution and data flow amongscience modules

3MRA (Multi-media, Multi-pathway, Multi-receptor

Risk Analysis) - 17 modules that describe therelease, fate and transport, exposure, and risk(human and ecological) associated withcontaminants deposited in various land-based

waste management units (e.g., landfills, waste piles)

FRAMES was developed as the framework thatwould allow these modules to communicate witheach other

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US EPA - FRAMES (Framework for Risk Analysis inMulti-media Environmental Systems) - system tomanage the execution and data flow amongscience modules

3MRA (Multi-media, Multi-pathway, Multi-receptor

Risk Analysis) - 17 modules that describe therelease, fate and transport, exposure, and risk(human and ecological) associated withcontaminants deposited in various land-based

waste management units (e.g., landfills, waste piles)

FRAMES was developed as the framework thatwould allow these modules to communicate witheach other

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The Open Modeling Interface and Environment(OpenMI) - a consortium of European universitiesand private companies, is a standard for modellinkage in the water domain.

Defines an interface that allows time-dependentmodels to exchange data at runtime.

Helps to link models from different domains(hydraulics, hydrology, ecology, water quality,

economics etc.), environments (atmospheric,freshwater, marine, terrestrial, urban, rural, etc.),different scales, resolutions, platforms, etc. Modelscan talk to each other at runtime.

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Common Component Architecture (CCA) -developed by the DOE and Lawrence LivermoreNational Lab (Bernholdt, 2004)

CCA targets high performance computers andcomplex sophisticated models

CCA supports parallel and distributed computingas well as local high-performance connectionsbetween components in a language-independent

manner.

CCA is applied in a variety of disciplines, includingcombustion research, global climate simulation, andcomputational chemistry.

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The limiting factor is not technical, but cultural

Where are we?

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The limiting factor is not technical, but cultural The hardware, software and models are better

than we can use

Where are we?

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than we can use

Why are we building these models?

Where are we?

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than we can use

Why are we building these models? How did we choose the scale? the resolution? the

complexity?

Where are we?

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than we can use


complexity?

Who will understand the model?

Where are we?

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than we can use


complexity?

Who will understand the model? Who are the users?

Where are we?

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than we can use


complexity?

Who will understand the model? Who are the users?

Did we ask them what they need?

Where are we?

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Research models User models

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Research models

Detailed and accurate

User models

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Research models


Calibrated, validated

User models

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Research models



Serving science andresearch

User models

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Research models




All-including

User models

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Research models




All-including

Top-Down

User models

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Research models




All-including

Top-Down The best model is the

best calibrated model

User models

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Research models




All-including



User models

Simple and relevant

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Research models




All-including



User models

Simple and relevant Trusted

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Research models




All-including



User models


Serving education,understanding, anddecision-making

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Research models




All-including



User models



Flexible and transparent

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Research models




All-including



User models




Bottom-up

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Research models




All-including



User models




Bottom-up The best model is themost used one

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Wh th t k h ld ?


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Who are the stakeholders?

Democracies poorly handle emergencies

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Less concern about environment and


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Less concern about environment andclimate change

Pew Research Center: http://people-press.org/report/485/economy-top-policy-priority

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Wh i ibl ?


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Who is responsible?

Forty-four percent (44%) of U.S.voters now say long-termplanetary trends are the cause ofglobal warming, compared to 41%who blame it on human activity.

Seven percent (7%) attributeglobal warming to some otherreason, and nine percent (9%) areunsure

In July 2006, 46% of voters saidglobal warming is caused primarilyby human activities, while 35%said it is due to long-termplanetary trends.

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"Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to usewhat we know" - M. King Hubbert

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20 years of climate change neglect and climate

research denial

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research denial

For public policy to be grounded in the hard-wonresults of climate science, we must now turn ourattention to the dynamics of social and politicalchange - J. Sterman

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research denial

For public policy to be grounded in the hard-wonresults of climate science, we must now turn ourattention to the dynamics of social and politicalchange - J. Sterman

What are the right models to support that?

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Complex: Global Circulation


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Complex: Global Circulation(Climate) Models (GCM)

The atmospheric

component calculates

winds, heat transfer,

radiation, relative humidity,

surface hydrology, and

surface fluxes of heat and

moisture within each grid

and evaluates interactions

with neighboring points.

The ocean componentcalculates currents, heat

content and salinity.

The atmospheric and

oceanic components

interact, for example with

evaporation from the

oceans into theatmosphere and with

atmospheric winds

affecting ocean currents.

Different models vary in

such basics as grid size

and therefore do not give

the same results.

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Alexey Voinov - ChanGes - Global Change Science and Policy - Venice, 2009

GCM

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Simple: Climate Rapid Overview


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Simple: Climate Rapid Overviewand Decision-support Simulator

C-ROADS

http://www.climateinteractive.org/simulations/C-ROADS

Climate Interactive Community:http://scripts.mit.edu/~jfmartin/sip/master/

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Simple: Climate Rapid Overview


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Simple: Climate Rapid Overviewand Decision-support Simulator

C-ROADS

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Simple: C-ROADS


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Simple: C-ROADS

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Even simpler: Positive feedbackeffects

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Higher temperature Melting iceAlbedo decrease Higher temperature


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Higher temperature Melting of permafrost Swamps

emit CH4 More GHG Higher temperatures


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Higher temperature Faster plant growth Morerespiration More CO2 More GHG Highertemperatures


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Higher temperature Faster plant growth Morerespiration More CO2 More GHG Highertemperatures

Higher temperature More forest fires More CO2 More GHG Higher temperatures


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New Study Shows Climate


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New Study Shows ClimateChange Largely Irreversible

Changes in surface temperature, rainfall, and sea level are largely irreversiblefor more than 1,000 years after carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions arecompletely stopped

Some of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activities stays in theatmosphere for thousands of years

If CO2 is allowed to peak at 450-600 parts per million, the results wouldinclude persistent decreases in dry-season rainfall that are comparable tothe 1930s North American Dust Bowl in zones including southern Europe,northern Africa, southwestern North America, southern Africa and westernAustralia

Increases in CO2 that occur in this century lock in sea level rise thatwould slowly follow in the next 1,000 years. Considering just the expansionof warming ocean waterswithout melting glaciers and polar ice sheetsthe irreversible global average sea level rise by the year 3000 would be atleast 0.41.0 meter if CO2 peaks at 600 parts per million, and double thatamount if CO2 peaks at 1,000 parts per million.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090126_climate.html

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Challenges and opportunities


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Failures of governance

Systems are highly complex

There is no one correct, value neutral solution

Many more regulatory decisions end up in court

Need to reinforce the process with localknowledge and iterative participatory interactions

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Our limiting factor today is communication


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Our limiting factor today is communication We need to learn to speak the same language

Models can help if used to communicate

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Participatory modeling

Companion modeling, mediated modeling, shared visionplanning

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Companion modeling, mediated modeling, shared visionplanning Participatory modeling is the process of incorporating

stakeholders, often including the public, and decision-

makers into the modeling process to support decisionsinvolving complex environmental questions

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More open and integrated planning processes is a way toavoid potential conflict, misunderstanding and evenlitigation

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A platform for integrating scientific knowledge with localknowledge

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A platform for integrating scientific knowledge with localknowledge

Goal driven

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Participatory modeling is best


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p y gwhen there is conflict

Let's model together

A model as a tool fordeliberations and consensus

Modeling process istransparent and open forreview

The process is moreimportant than the result

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Stakeholder Input


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p

What are the alternatives thatare feasible from thestakeholder viewpoint?

What can be incentives toimplement them?

What factors, processes,conditions we may be missingin our models?

What models to use?

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Stakeholder Input


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p

What are the alternatives thatare feasible from thestakeholder viewpoint?

What can be incentives toimplement them?

What factors, processes,conditions we may be missingin our models?

What models to use?

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How much detail is justified?


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j

Complex models are hard to communicate Complex models are hard to trust

Is knowing the trend more important thanknowing the exact numbers?

Who really makes the decision about the model touse?

Who takes the responsibility? The $1 mln. question: How do we communicatewhat we already know?

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Community modeling approach


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y g pp

A community modeling system is an open-sourcesuite of modeling components coupled in aframework

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y g pp


Emerges through the collective efforts of acommunity of individuals that develop, code,debug, test, document, run, and apply the modelingsystem

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y g pp


Emerges through the collective efforts of acommunity of individuals that develop, code,debug, test, document, run, and apply the modelingsystem

Should include both developers and users, anddistributed among different institutions andorganizations.

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y g pp

First generation:- EPAs Models-3 System,

- National Center for Atmospheric Research

(NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM)

- Pennsylvania State/NCAR Mesoscale Model(MM5)

Proof of concept: freely available, portable, well-documented models are enthusiastically receivedby the broader community as research tools

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y g pp

Next generation:- Community Climate System Model (CCSM), thesuccessor to CCM. Was part of IPCC

assessments- Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model,

the successor to MM5

- Community Surface Dynamic Modeling System(CSDMS; http://csdms.colorado.edu - NSF)

- Community Modeling and Analysis System(CMAS; http://www.cmascenter.org/ - EPA)

- Chesapeake Community Model Program(CCMP; http://ccmp.chesapeake.org - NOAA)

- Community Sediment-Transport Model System(CSTMS; http://www.cstms.org - NOPP)

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Community modeling advantages


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Integration of effort between multipleinstitutions, which is crucial because models are

too multidisciplinary and complex

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too multidisciplinary and complex Continuity and more project robustness in face

of uncertain funding and institutional support

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Cuts redundancy because new models can bebuilt upon already existing concepts, data,algorithms, and code

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Scientists work with software engineers, helpingto bridge the cultural and, often, institutional gap

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Scientists work with software engineers, helpingto bridge the cultural and, often, institutional gap

Essential link to the user community, offering

much needed transparency and input at earlystages of the project and during the testingphase. More users provide better testing andwider acceptance of results.

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Community modeling challenges


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Scientific reward structure is skewed towardpublications and away from technical

contributions

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contributions Funding is discontinuous, and not reliably

available for long-term support of technicalinfrastructure

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Intellectual property policies of universities andprivate companies are not always compatible.Software is often viewed as a competitiveadvantage

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Intellectual property policies of universities andprivate companies are not always compatible.Software is often viewed as a competitiveadvantage

Interdisciplinary communication among

scientists, engineers, users, and decision-makers.All are important segments of the modelingcommunity, but each has its own culture,vocabulary, and objectives

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Community modeling recommendations


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Code should be open source and meet aminimum level of standards or protocols as a

requirement for receiving government funds

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requirement for receiving government funds Allow communities to have a say in

disbursement of funding. Community programsprovide much needed transparency and can be

instrumental in deciding on funding prioritiesand focal areas

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Require that models, code and documentationbe accessible always during development

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Provide stable funding of software architects and

engineers on par with the technical staff supportin labs

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Provide stable funding of software architects and

engineers on par with the technical staff supportin labs

Support repositories of models and softwareand enforce standards among themselves.

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"What theory and science is possible about a matter

the conditions and circumstances of which areunknown and cannot be defined, especially when thestrength of the acting forces cannot beascertained? ... What science can there be in a

matter in which, as in all practical matters, nothing canbe defined and everything depends on innumerableconditions, the significance of which is determined ata particular moment which arrives no one knowswhen?"

Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace, Book 9, ch.11

integrating economic and ecological models for environmental decision making

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