Phil Le Gouais – Mott MacDonald

IAIA Water Symposium 2nd September 2016

Integrating Resilience and Adaptation in EIA

The guide provides a framework for the effective consideration of climate resilience and adaptation in the EIA process

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Within 20 years we estimate US$200bn of investment each year will be needed globally to combat losses from climate changeGSI and Mott MacDonald CRI

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Amended EIA Directive

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Increased Reference to “Climate”

Article 3(1): References Land, Soil, Air Water and

Climate

Annex III (screening) – Risk of affect of accident/disaster

(incl Climate)

Annex IV –Reference to both

GHG and Adaptation for inclusion in the

EIA

2014/52/EU

Seven Step Guide to considering Adaptation and Resilience

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Key PrinciplesResourcing the EIA to Assess Climate Effects

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Someone needs to know what they are

talking about!

Familiarity with the datasets and policy

context

Facilitates discussion on emissions

scenarios

Communicates scenarios to wider project/EIA team

Key PrinciplesIdentifying the Future Climate

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Establishes the Climate Baseline using CURRENT data (e.g. continued validity of UKCP09)

Define a single and accepted projection/emission scenario to use across all disciplines

Interpret these into other baselines

What timeframes are relevant to the project?

Team needs to be clear on assumptions made.

Key PrinciplesBuilding Climate Resilience

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CCRA•Need to determine vulnerability – usually through a risk based assessment

Planning•Consideration at every stage of the design process – not only in EIA of final option

Buy in

•Need to agree with stakeholders what their concerns are (primarily through scoping)•Need to agree with the proponent what the risk appetite/tolerance is•Reconciling the two may be a challenge

Scales

•Need to consider both chronic issues over the long term (could impact viability or business case)

•Need to consider resilience to extreme events

Agree

•Dialogue with design team is vital to agree issues, understand where genuine resilience issues are and agree how to deal with it

Key PrinciplesIntegrating Adaptation into the ES

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Emphasis is placed on meaningful consideration of climate risks at scoping stage to ensure appropriate consideration in technical chapters

No explicit recommendation on separate chapter vs integration into existing chapters vs combination of both

Assessments must be proportionate to the risks

Data sources and assumptions must be transparent

Key PrinciplesDeveloping Mitigation and Adaptive Management

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Plugging the gap between Resilience and Risk

Presents a view of the mitigation hierarchy related to CC

Are there opportunities for the project to create broader resilience (e.g. community)?

Need to consider Adaptive Management approaches

• Longer term risks• Risks with high uncertainty• Where mitigation is not appropriate/cost effective at this time

Residual Challenges

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•What is significant and what is under-rated?•Legal robustness vs filter of main issues

Proportionality

•Complex, risk based concepts which are difficult to communicate•Outputs of climate analysis not often “useful” or in context of technical assessments

Communication

•CCRA in EIA not done by the designer•Does dealing with CC in EIA isolate it from other uncertainties – demand, energy prices, other baseline prediction uncertainty or design assumptions)?

•How does it fit with SEA?

Integrated Design

•How do you monitor compliance with “adaptive management” over the life of an asset?

Monitoring

Acknowledgements

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Co-editors/authors

James Montgomery (Mott MacDonald)Phil Le Gouais (Mott MacDonald)Henry Le Brecht (Mott MacDonald)Josh Fothergill (IEMA)

Inputs and comments

Kay Johnstone (Climate Ready – Env Agency)Alison Walker and Arefa Siddiqi (HS2)Nick Blyth and Ed Barlow (IEMA)Bryony Cunningham (Jacobs)Amy Robinsom (RPS)James Blake (RSK) Richard Halsey (Turley Associates)Jeonghwa Yi (formerly University of Cambridge)Mark Roberts (formerly Wardell Armstrong), andStephen Brindle (Waterman)

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