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Integrating Wind into the Chinese Power Sector: Development, Barriers and Solutions
Xinyu Chen Harvard China Project
The Energy Policy Seminar Series| Harvard Kennedy School March 28 2016
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Wind Power Development: Global Trend
34%
17% 10%
6%
3%
30%
Cumulative Capacity 2015
China US Germany India UK Others
52%
13% 8%
4%
2% 21%
Added Capacity in 2015
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Wind Power in China: Future Goal
Carbon abatement
20% non - fossil sources in total energy 2030 (INDC)
60 -65% reduction in Carbon intensity relative to 2005
Air Quality Improvement
Strengthened control on primary PM, SO 2, Nox in power sector
Renewable Energy Law
Feed- in Tariff
Dispatch Priority
2015 2020 2030
100 GW in 2015 at 12 th Five Year Plan
2 00 GW installed Capacity by 2020
400 GW by 2030 from Energy Research I nstitute
Targets
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Geographical Distribution
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Geographical Distribution
Current and future installed wind capacity (diameter) and peak power demand (height of circle center) of major provinces in China
Pe
ak P
ow
er
De
ma
nd
/ In
sta
lled
Win
d C
ap
acity
(GW
)
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Curtailment: A Major Barrier for Wind Power Development in China
Curtailed wind power accounted for 16% of total wind generation in 2011
$ 1.6 billion loss
National Energy Bureau has suspended further development of wind resources at onshore bases in 2016 where curtailment is larger than 20%
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Challenge I : Imbalanced Geographical Distribution
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Max daily wind production ratio of total consumption
According to State Grid, wind power penetration in some wind regions is approaching the highest levels in the world, comparable with Denmark and Spain.
The maximum daily wind production
reached 94%, 31%, 33% and 32% of the corresponding daily consumption in Eastern Inner Mongolia (E.IM), Western Inner Mongolia (W.IM), Gansu, and Jilin respectively .
Significantly High Local Wind Penetration Level
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Thermal power dominates in 3- region: Flexible sources, such as hydropower, pumped storage, gas
turbines, oil generators, are insufficient, leading to inadequate load-following and reserve provision.
Challenge II: Inflexible Generation Mix
China data end of 2013, other countries 2014.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
North China Northeastern China
Northwestern China
Germany US Spain
Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar
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Challenge III: Heat - driven Operation of Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Units
National Average 25%
North China 50%
Northeast China
7 0%
Heat demand distribution The share of CHP in thermal units
Must -run units in heating season
Possible range of power output decreases with the increase of heat demand
Heat demand is predetermined by heating companies
Typically range between 70% -90% of the nameplate capacity in heating season.
Limited Flexibility of CHP
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- 11 -
Deregulation (2003)
Five generation groups
Two grid companies
Challenge IV: Rigid Regulatory Structure
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National Dispatch Center 1
Regional 5
Provincial 26
Municipal 309
County 1702
Challenge IV: Rigid Regulatory Structure
Annual/monthly inter -regional transmission plan and dispatch of major units (e.g. Three Gorges Dam)
Annual/monthly inter -provincial transmission plan
Provincial energy balance and operational dispatch
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Potential Cost Effective Solutions
Electric Vehicles
Integration with Heating
System
Interregional Transmission Coordination