integration of a mesoscale ensemble system into national weather service hydro- meteorological...
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Integration of a Mesoscale Ensemble System into National
Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations
Operational Aspects of the
COMET Collaborative Project
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Participants
• Stony Brook University:– Brian Colle, Mike Erickson
• NWS New York City:– Jeff Tongue, Nancy Furbush, Matt Sardi, Nelson Vaz,
Adrienne Leptich
• NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly:– Al Cope
• NWS Eastern Region Headquarters– Josh Watson
• NWS MARFC:– Joe Ostrowski
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Objective
Integrate data from the Stony Brook University Mesoscale Ensemble System (MES)
1.Into AWIPS.
2.Into the Site Specific Hydrologic Predictor (SSHP) application.
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Why ?
• Allow forecasters to perform mesoscale stochastic hydrology on small, fast responding basins.
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How??
• Provide WFO Forecasters with Mesoscale Ensemble Data to assimilate via AWIPS D2D (GFE) and the Web.
• Provide WFO Forecasters with Mesoscale Ensemble Data to integrate into the Site Specific Hydrologic Predictor.
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Data
• Web
• AWIPS
• GFE
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Web
http://chaos.msrc.sunysb.edu/NEUS/nwp_graphics.html
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http://chaos.msrc.sunysb.edu/NEUS/nwp_graphics.html
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Precip Plumes
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AWIPS
• 00Z 12/36 km 14 Member Ensemble data
• Available ~11 UTC
• 36 Hour Forecast
• Volume Browser:– Members– Means/Standard Deviation– Probability of Exceedence
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AWIPS
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AWIPS – QPF Members
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AWIPS - Mean
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AWIPS – Temperature Members
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AWIPS – Wind Members
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AWIPS - Concerns
• Installation Instructions are Available.
• Still needs some “clean-up.”
• New “build” issues.
• Stony Brook is not an Operational Center.
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SSHP
Integrating Stony Brook ESP into SSHP
1.Deterministically: From the AWIPS GFE
2.Stochastically: From the Stony Brook EPS
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Accessing SSHP
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1. GFE QPF - Deterministic
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Convert 6 hour NDFD QPF to RR2 text product for use with SSHP
Note that GFE 6-hr Pcpn is evenly distributed
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In SSHPBasins:
– Lodi - Saddle R.– Gardiner – Wallkill R.– HoHoKus – Hohokus Brook– Springfield – Rahway R. – Beacon Falls – Naugatuck R.– Southbury – Pomperaug R.– Yantic – Yantic R.
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2. EPS into SSHP (under development)
• Experimenting with the Lodi Basin.
• Stony Brook University is producing hourly resolution basin averaged precipitation.– RR2 Product (ftp’ed):
• Mean• Worst Case scenario• Individual member data
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Ensemble mean accumulated 1 hr forecast for hour 32
Ensemble mean for the Lodi Basin
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Worst case
Mean Average
GFE QPF
SBU Ensemble Members
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Selecting Basin QPF in SSHP
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Example Worse Case in SSHP
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Future Work
• Automate the FTP of Data
• Train Staff
• Modify SSHP with help of OH to display ensemble hydrographs
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The Future in SSHP