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Intelligence and Insight You Can Trust

Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1


Client Briefing

Terrorism Trends 2010 - 2011

7 June 2011

Will Hartley, Matthew Henman and

Jeremy Binnie


Terrorism Trends 2010-2011

Somalia – The Battle for Mogadishu

Russia – Ultranationalism and Jihad

International – Anwar al-Awlaqi


Somalia Security Briefing

July 2010 - Present

• Key Developments

• Jihadist alliances and rivalries

• Shabab as a regional threat

• Feb 2011 TFG offensive

• The Battle for Mogadishu

• AMISOM turning the tide?

• Security Outlook


Jihadist Alliances & Rivalries

2010: Fragmentation

Sept 2009: Conflict between the Shabab and the

Muaskar Ras Kamboni (MRK) faction of Hizbul Islam.

Feb 2010: MRK splinter defects to the Shabab.

May 2010: MRK withdraws from Hizbul Islam.

2011: Realignment

Dec 2010: Hizbul Islam merges with the Shabab.

Feb 2011: MRK re-emerges as a TFG aligned militia.


The Shabab – A Regional Threat

World Cup Suicide Bombs

Kampala, Uganda

11 July 2010

82 Dead, 61 Seriously Wounded

Nairobi-Kampala Coach Attack

Nairobi, Kenya

20 December 2010

3 Dead, 23 Wounded


The Battle for Mogadishu - Orientation


June – July 2010


August – November 2010


February 2011 - Present


Security Outlook

“These gains are the latest in a steady advance our forces have been making

since the summer of last year.”

AU representative to Somalia, Boubacar Diarra, speaking to the UN, March 2011.

Limiting Factors

• Secured areas remain highly vulnerable to irregular, „terrorist-style‟ attacks.

• AMISOM force levels:

• Current AMISOM force level: 9,000

• Estimated force level required: 20,000

• Fragility of coalition of TFG-aligned forces in the provinces.

• Failure of the TFG to offer the population a credible administration.


Russian Federation: Sub-State Threats

• Ultranationalism: Origins and Operations

• Imarat Kavkaz: Jamaats and Jihad


Russian Federation: 1 June 2010 – 31 May 2011

Damaging Attacks: 475

Non-Militant Fatalities: 347


Russian Federation: 1 June 2010 – 31 May 2011

Geographical Distribution

North Caucasus: 451

attacks (94.9 per cent)

Moscow: nine attacks

(1.9 per cent)


Ultranationalist Militancy

Ultranationalist Groups:

Slavyansky Soyuz (SS)

Militant Organisation of Russian Nationalists (MORN)

Ryno-Skachevsky Gang

Movement Against Illegal Immigration (MAIM)

MAIM March, Moscow November 2010

Stanislas Markelov, shot dead

by MORN militants in Moscow,

January 2009


North Caucasus Insurgency

Attacks vs. Non-Militant Fatalities 2007-2011



Attacks by North Caucasus Republic 2007-2011



Shamil Basayev Ibn al-Khattab Dokka Umarov


Imarat Kavkaz – Primary Jamaats

Smaller Jamaats:

• Karachay Jamaat

(merged with

Yarmuk Jamaat in

2007)

• Jamaat al-Gharb

(Republic of

Adygeya)

• Kataib al-Khoul

(North Ossetia;

merged with Ingush

Jamaat in 2009)

• Nogai Jamaat

(Nogai Steppe)


Imarat Kavkaz – Jamaat Shariat

Leaders:

• Rasul Makasharipov – killed July 2005

• Rappani Khalilov – killed September 2007

• Ilgas Malachiyev alias Abdul Majid – killed September 2008

• Omar Sheikhulayev alias Emir Muaz – killed February 2009

• Umalat Magomedov alias Al-Bara – killed December 2009

• Magomedali Vagabov alias Sayfullah Gubdenskiy – killed August 2010

• Israpil Velidzhanov alias Emir Hassan – killed April 2011

• Emir Salih – Present

Al-Bara

Formed : 2002


Imarat Kavkaz – Jamaat Shariat

Attacks: 252

Fatalities: 157

Notable Operations:

• 14 January – VBIED attack kills

four civilians in Khasavyurt

• 26 January – VBIED attack kills

four civilians in Khasavyurt

• 14 February – double suicide

attack kills two police officers and

wounds nine others


Imarat Kavkaz – Yarmuk Jamaat

Leaders:

• Muslim Atayev – killed January 2005

• Rustam Bekanov – killed April 2005

• Anzor Astemirov alias Emir Sayfullah – killed March 2010

• Asker Dzhappuyev – killed April 2011

Formed : August 2004

Emir Sayfullah


Imarat Kavkaz – Yarmuk Jamaat

Attacks: 86

Fatalities: 50

Notable Operations:

• 18 February – three

Muscovite tourists were

shot dead in Baksan

• 3 February – four

police officers were shot

dead in Chegem


Imarat Kavkaz – Ingush Jamaat

Leaders:

• Ilyas Gorchkhanov – killed October 2005

• Akhmad Yevloyev alias Emir Magas – arrested June 2010

• Emir Adam – present

Formed : 2000-2001

Emir Magas


Imarat Kavkaz – Ingush Jamaat

Attacks: 62

Fatalities: 20

Notable Operation:

• 9 September – SVBIED attack kills 17 and wounds

140 in Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia


Imarat Kavkaz – Chechen Jamaats

Leaders:

• Shamil Basayev – killed July 2006

• Aslanbek Vadalov (Eastern Nokhchiycho) – expelled August 2010

• Tarkhan Gaziyev (Southwestern Nokhchiycho) – expelled August 2010

• Husseyn Gakayev – present

Formed : c.1994



Mukkhanad (left), Dokka Umarov (centre), Aslanbek Vadolov (right)



Attacks: 51

Fatalities: 34

Notable Operations:

• 29 August – six police officers

and 12 militants were killed when

approximately 70 militants assault

village of Tsentoroi – home to

President Ramzan Kadyrov

• 19 October – three suicide

bombers assault Chechen

parliament building in Grozny,

killing at least two police officers

and a civilian


Imarat Kavkaz – External Operations

CCTV image of Domodedovo bomber


Anwar al-Awlaqi

Jeremy Binnie


Made in America

Born 22 April 1971 in New Mexico

Returned to Yemen in 1978, where he studied at

Azal Modern School, an elite private school

Returned to US in 1990 to study engineering at

Colorado State University

Earned an MA in education leadership from San

Diego State University

Studied human resource development at George

Washington University, Washington DC


Radical links In 1998-1999, Awlaqi was vice-president of the US branch of the Charitable Society for

Social Welfare, a now defunct charity suspected of channelling money to Al-Qaeda and

Hamas. An FBI investigation determined that there was insufficient evidence to prosecute

him.

He knew Ziyad Khaleel, a now deceased Palestinian-American who acted as a

procurement agent for Al-Qaeda and ran a Hamas website.

In 2000, he met two of the 9/11 hijackers - Khalid al-Mihdar and Nawaf al-Hazmi - at San

Diego‟s Al-Ribat mosque where he worked as a preacher (imam).

In April 2001, Nawaf al-Hazmi and Hani Hanjour, another 9/11 hijacker, visited him at the

Dar al-Hijra mosque in Virginia.

From left to right: Khalid al-Mihdar,

Nawaf al-Hazmi and Hani Hanjour


Return to Yemen

“I was a preacher for Islam involved in non-violent Islamic activism. However, with the

American invasion of Iraq and continued US aggression against Muslims, I could not

reconcile between living in the US and being a Muslim and I eventually came to the

conclusion that jihad against America is binding upon myself, just as it is binding on

every other able Muslim."

Anwar al-Awlaqi, March 2010 audio recording


Influential blogger

“There was a particularly mean prison head who decided to ban me from having any Islamic

books. I then asked if I would be allowed to have English novels… my parents brought me

whatever was lying around in the house. This time it was King Lear by Shakespeare and Hard

Times by Charles Dickens. Shakespeare was the worst thing I read during my entire stay in

prison. I never liked him to start with. Probably the only reason he became so famous is

because he was English and had the backing and promotion of the speakers of a global

language. On the other hand, I read Hard Times thrice. So, I ordered more Charles Dickens

and read Tale of Two Cities, Great Expectations, Oliver Twist, and his masterpiece: David

Copperfield. I read this one twice.”

Book reviews from behind bars number nine, Anwar al-Awlaqi


Major Nidal Malik Hasan

Born to Palestinian parents in the US

Served as a psychologist with the US Army

Medical Corps

Was in email contact with Awlaqi between

Dec 2008 and June 2009

Accused of shooting 13 soldiers dead at

Fort Hood, Texas on 5 Nov 2009


Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab

AQAP claimed responsibility

for the failed attack and

released a video of

Abdulmutallab training with

its fighters

Nigerian national from wealthy family

Studied mechanical engineering in London, business in Dubai and Arabic in Yemen

Accused of attempting to detonate an IED concealed in his underwear on an airliner as it

came into land at Detroit on 25 December 2009

Allegedly told his interrogators that he was in touch with Awlaqi before

attempting the bombing


Ambiguous Awlaqi

“My fellow mujahid Umar Farouk, may

Allah free him, is one of my students and

there was some contact between me

and him, but I did not issue a fatwa

allowing him to carry out this operation.”

Anwar al-Awlaqi, interview with Al-

Jazeera, February 2010

Awlaqi‟s Nov 2010 video did not carry the

branding of AQAP‟s media wing


Inspire

Jihad Recollections issue four,

September 2009

Inspire issue one, July 2010


Operation Haemorrhage

One of Awlaqi‟s favourite

English books was included in

a parcel bomb

The head of AQAP‟s foreign

operations shows a good grasp

of history


Rajib Karim

Awlaqi to Karim 25 Jan 2010: “can you please specify your

role in the airline industry, how much access do you have to

airports, what information do you have on the limitations and

cracks in present airport security systems, what procedures

would travelers from the newly listed countries have to go

through, what procedures would a person on a watch list have

to go through?„”

Karim to Awlaqi 29 Jan: “I have knowledge about key IT

hardware locations, which if targeted can bring huge

disruption to flights and cause BA a major financial loss.”

Awlaqi to Karim 13 Feb: “Our highest priority is the US.

Anything there, even if on a smaller scale compared to what

we may do in the UK, would be our choice. So the question is:

with the people you have, is it possible to get a package or a

person with a package on board a flight heading to the US?”


Strategic priorities

Qassim al-Raymi

Military commander

(Yemeni)

Nasir al-Wuhayshi

Emir

(Yemeni)

Said al-Shihri

Deputy emir

(Saudi)


Discouraging foreign volunteers

“If you‟re coming from the West, you

might be asked by the mujahideen why

you didn‟t partake in the jihad inside

your country. If you tell them “to help

the mujahideen” many will tell you that

attacking the enemy in their backyard

is one of the best ways to help jihad…

“I strongly recommend all the brothers

and sisters coming from the West to

consider attacking the West in its own

backyard. The effect is much greater, it

always embarrasses the enemy and

these types of indivual attacks are

nearly impossible for them to contain.”

Mukhtar Hassan, Inspire issue two


Abbottabad intel

“[Attiyah Abd-al-] Rahman notified Bin Laden of a request by the leader of Al-Qaeda‟s

affiliate in Yemen to install Anwar al-Awlaqi, the radical American-born cleric, as the leader

of the group in Yemen. That group, known as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, apparently

thought Mr Awlaqi‟s knowledge of the United States and his status as an Internet celebrity

might help the group‟s operations and fund-raising efforts.”

New York Times, 26 May 2011

“Even while sealed inside a cement compound in a

Pakistani city, bin Laden functioned like a crime boss

pulling strings from a prison cell, sending regular

messages to his most trusted lieutenants and strategic

advice to far-flung franchises, including al-Qaeda‟s

affiliate in Yemen. Some followers pledged their fealty

to him; others, however, chafed at his exhortations to

remain focused on US targets instead of mounting

less risky operations in places such as Yemen,

Somalia and Algeria.”

Washington Post, 12 May 2011


Thank you for listening


Contact Us

Will Hartley

Editor, Jane's Terrorism & Insurgency Centre (JTIC)

[email protected]

Jeremy Binnie

Editor, Jane's Terrorism & Security Monitor

[email protected]

Matthew Henman

Analyst, Jane's Terrorism and Insurgency Centre (JTIC)

[email protected]

James Green

Director, IHS Jane's News and Analysis

[email protected]

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