interactive journey through the federal reserve: fed 101fed 101 1
TRANSCRIPT
Interactive journey through the Federal Reserve: Fed 101
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The Government and Congress
The Federal Reserve Bank
Changing taxes and spending
Changing credit conditions in the economy.
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President reviews requests for funding and formulates his budget
February–December 2009
Budget preparation and transmittal to Congress
December 2009 -February 2010
Congress reviews President’s budget develops its own budget for the president to sign.
March– September 2010
Fiscal Year beginsOctober first 2010
Agency program managers execute the budget.
October 1st 2010 – September 30, 2011
From February
2009 when the decision is made….
To October 2010 when the
actual spending takes
place!.
Fiscal Policy can not be used for the day to day fine tuning of economic policy because the budget process is too long.
04/11/23
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SenateHouse
53Democrats45Republicans2 independent(Vice-president votes in case of a tie)
200 Democrats232 Republicans0 Independent
100 Senators17 women
435 Members78 women
THE GOOD NEWS IS…
Democratically elected More than 500
representatives from different states and political inclinations.
Fiscal Policy decisions are debated and made open to the public.
THE BAD NEWS IS…
Democratically elected More than 500
representatives from different states and political inclinations.
Fiscal Policy decisions are debated and made open to the public.
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Rule by the Few: The Federal Reserve System
Created on December 23, 1913 by an Act of
Congress.
Fed District Banks are corporations whose stock
holders are member banks in the district.
Fed District Banks are corporations whose stock
holders are member banks in the district.
Board of Governors
(7)
Federal Open Market
Committee (FOMC) (5)
4 bank presidents and President of the New York Fed
4 bank presidents and President of the New York Fed
12 Regional Bank Presidents
(7+5)
Members are appointed by the President and confirmed by the senate to 14 year terms.
Chairman and Vice-chairman are appointed by the president and confirmed by the senate to 4 year terms.
The president is directed by law to select “a fair representation of the financial, agricultural, industrial and commercial interests and geographical divisions of the country” 10
Board of
Governors (7)
12 Regio
nal Banks
Federal Open
Market Committ
ee (FOMC) (7+5)
Ben S. Bernanke: Chairman
(7)Members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Appointed by president confirmed by senate
(1)President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
(4) On a rotating basis: presidents of the eleven other reserve banks. Appointed by the board of directors of each
bank.
FISCAL POLICY MAKERS
Democratically elected More than 500
representatives from different states and political inclinations.
Fiscal Policy decisions are debated and made open to the public.
MONETARY POLICY MAKERS
Not Democratically elected but appointed for 14 years!
12 members all tied to financial institutions.
Monetary Policy decisions are not debated, nor are they open to the public.
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Decisions are made
very slowlyDecisions can
be made quickly to
respond to the day to day
events as they develop.
Stabilize the business cycle: Promote economic growth, full employment, stable prices and sustainable international trade.
Supervise and regulate financial institutions. The Constitution gives Congress the power
"to coin money and regulate the value thereof." Congress delegated that power to the
when it created the central bank in 1913 Serve as the bank for the U.S. government
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Ben S. Bernanke, Board of Governors, Chairman William C. Dudley, New York, Vice Chairman James Bullard, St. Louis Elizabeth A. Duke, Board of Governors Charles L. Evans, Chicago Esther L. George, Kansas City Jerome H. Powell, Board of Governors Sarah Bloom Raskin, Board of Governors Eric S. Rosengren, Boston Jeremy C. Stein, Board of Governors Daniel K. Tarullo, Board of Governors Janet L. Yellen, Board of Governors
Since January 10, 2000 the FOMC issues a statement on its assessment of risks to stability in the foreseeable future.
Minutes are available after the next regularly scheduled meeting.
In the 1990s after pressure from Congress, the Fed began releasing transcripts of its interest-rate deliberations after a five year lag.
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September 08: The central bank said it was keeping its target for the federal funds rate, at 2 percent.
“Strains in financial markets have increased significantly and labor markets have weakened further."
However, the central bank also remained concerned about inflation pressures.
"The downside risks to growth and the upside risks to inflation are both of significant concern to the committee,"
No change in interest
rates
Unemployment: Cut rates
Inflation: raise rates
Profits of each Federal Reserve Bank are distributed to the U.S. Treasury.
The Federal Reserve paid ~$78.4 billion of their estimated 2010 net income of $80.9 billion to the U.S. Treasury.
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What does the Federal Reserve Bank consider money?
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The fed considers money only the most ‘liquid’ assets
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M1: Most liquid
1,785Billion
M2:less liquid8,752 Billion
Currency (904b)Travelers checks (5b)Demand deposits at banks(495b)Other demand deposits (386b)
M28,752 Billion
M11,785B
Nominal GDP ~ 14,000Billion
Velocity of money: Number of times a dollar bill is
used
M1+Savings deposits Money market deposit accountsSmall time deposits
Dollar value of what we boughtDollar value of
what we boughtNumber of dollars in
circulation
Number of dollars in
circulation
Velocity = Nominal GDP/M1
V = 14,000/1,785 =~ 8Each dollar was used ~ 8
times during the year
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+All Commercial Banks
Demand Deposits at
banks
Ms = Currency held outside banks + Demand DepositsThe amount of money in circulation is the Money Supply
(904b) (881b)(1,785b)
Total Checkable Deposits
Money Supply = TCD + Currency
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Goldsmith
Certificate = 5 gold pieces
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Goldsmith
Certificate = 5 gold pieces
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan = 5 gold pieces
Loan = 5 gold piece
Loan = 5 gold pieces
Loan = 5 gold pieces
Real Money
Bank A
Loan
Loan
Loan
Loan
Loan $
$ $
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan
Loan
Loan
Loan
Loan
Bank B
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Bank D
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan
Loan
Loan
LoanBank
C
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Your deposit
= Money
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First National Bank
Your deposit$20,000
The bank makes loans and holds a portion as reserve in vault.
$5,000
$5,000
2,000Reserve
loans
$8,000
Now you and other three individuals can write checks up to:
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20,0005,0005,0008,000
38,000
The bank holds only 2,000
If all these payments must be made at the same time, the bank does not have enough in reserves.
Only 2,000 “support” 38,000 in spending!
Banks allow several individuals to write checks on the same amount of money…
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Lending Create Money
out of thin air…
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If r = 10%Loans = 90% of
Deposits
If r = 20%80% of
Deposits
A bank
r
30
These loans become deposits at another bank
(r)
Real Money
Bank A
Loan
Loan
Loan
Loan
Loan $
$ $
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan
Loan
Loan
Loan
Loan
Bank B
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Bank D
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan
Loan
Loan
LoanBank
C
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Your deposit
D
R = D*rR = D*rL =
D-R
L =
D-R
R = D*rR = D*rL =
D-R
L =
D-R
L =
D-R
L =
D-R
R = D*rR = D*r
R = D*rR = D*r
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Reserves59
Depositsall banks
590
Loans531
59 in reserves allow banks up to 531 in loans
New loans are made.
As loans are paid back,
r = 10%r = 10%
R = D x r
L=D-R
R = 590 x 0.1R = 590 x 0.1
04/11/23© 2002 Claudia Garcia-Szekely
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Why is secrecy necessary in banking?
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531B
There are only $59B in banks’ reserves supporting $590B in deposits…if everyone tries to cash $590 at the same time there
is NOT enough money for everyone…
In a business based on confidence, when that
confidence evaporates, so does
the business.
Bear Stearns Press ReleaseBear Stearns was founded as an equity trading house on May Day 1923
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Monday, March 10/08
On Monday, the firm had about $17 billion in cash.
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In previous weeks, banks such as Goldman Sachs had agreed to stand in for institutions nervous that Bear wouldn't be able to cough up its obligations on deal.
In the morning, Goldman Sachs sent its clients an e-mail announcing that it would no longer step in for them on Bear deals.
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Bear again tried to reassure investors: “The rumors are false, there is no liquidity crisis. No margin calls. It's nonsense." CFO Molinaro on CNBC.
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When word of the Goldman e-mail leaked out, the floodgates opened. Hedge funds and other clients, eventually
running into the hundreds, began yanking their funds.
Bear continued to maintain publicly that all was well.
"We don't see any pressure on our liquidity, let alone a liquidity crisis."
CEO Alan Schwartz
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A run on the bank
accidentally caused by an email..?
The gravity of the situation finally registered at Bear: Liquidity was plummeting: $2 billion at week's end (from 17 billion on Monday!)
Even as the firm frantically negotiated a rescue package with J.P. Morgan, Bear executives continued to try to convince the world that everything was under control.
That evening Schwartz contacted a well-known New York hedge fund manager to plead with him to appear on CNBC the next morning and express his confidence in Bear. The hedge fund manager declined politely but wondered why Bear needed a client to convince the world of its health…
Fed agreed to provide $25 B loan to Bear Stearns (backed by BS assets)
To provide liquidity for up to 28 days which the market was refusing to Bear.
Fed has a change of heart refused the loan…
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Fed agrees to loan $30 bill to JP Morgan Chase (backed by Bear assets NOT JP assets!)
To allow JP to purchase Bear for $2 per share! A staggering loss from $62.30 at closing on Monday March 10th.
In addition, Fed provides a non-recourse loan to JP Morgan for $29 bill
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Government assumes the risk of Bear’s less liquid assets…
Loan is backed by mortgage debt, government cannot seize JP’s assets if mortgage debt becomes insufficient to repay the loan.
If BS assets turn a profit, JP
pockets the profit.
If not, the government
takes the loss…
Heads, JP wins…
Tails, the taxpayer loses
AT 9 A.M., Bear announced $30 billion in funding provided by J.P. Morgan and backstopped by the government.
Schwartz still fighting reality: "Bear Stearns has been subject to a significant amount of
rumor. Customer requests to cash out "accelerated yesterday ... there could be continued liquidity demands
that would outstrip liquidity resources." The new loan facility, he said, would restore calm. Of course, that didn't happen: Bear's stock
dropped nearly 40% in the first half-hour of trading.
Within days, Bear's 85 years as an independent entity were at an end.
In a dramatic meeting on September 18, 2008, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke met with key legislators to propose a $700 billion emergency bailout.
Bernanke told them: "If we don't do this, we may not have an economy on Monday.“
The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, which implemented the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), was signed into law on October 3, 2008
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By providing these loans to banks, the government expects banks to make loans to the public
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Bank A
Loan
Loan
Loan
Loan
Loan $
$ $
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan
Loan
Loan
Loan
Loan
Bank B
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Bank D
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan
Loan
Loan
LoanBank
C
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Total Deposits=8
00
Total Deposits=8
00
Bank A
Loan
Loan
Loan
Loan
Loan $
$ $
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan
Loan
Loan
Loan
Loan
Bank B
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Bank D
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan = 1 gold piece
Loan
Loan
Loan
LoanBank
C
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
TARP 700BTARP 700B
D D
All BanksReserves
Each bank holds a portion of the new deposit as reserves and makes loans that becomeNew deposits…
Deposit=700
Deposit=700
700
All BanksDeposits
?
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Deposits
700700(0.9)=630
630(0.9)=567
567(0.9)=510
.
.
.
Reserves
700(0.1)=70
630(0.1)=63
567(0.1)=57
510(0.1)=51
.
.
.SUM of New Deposits = ? SUM of New
Reserves = 700 the original deposit.
The Change in Deposits = Original Deposit + New Loans
Loans
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The stream of deposits generated by the original 700 can be written as:
700 + 700 (0.9) + 700 (0.9)(0.9) +
700(0.9)(0.9)(0.9) + …or
700 + 700 (0.9) + 700 (0.9)2+ 700
(0.9)3 + 700 (0.9)4 +…
700 [1+ (0.9) + (0.9)2+ (0.9)3 + (0.9)4 +…]
Factor out the 700:
This sum of terms can be written:D = 700 [1+ (0.9) + (0.9)2+ (0.9)3 + (0.9)4 +…]
1
1-0.9
1
0.1
Since 1 – 0.9 = 0.1We can write:
1
r
Since 0.1= rWe can write:
If we keep adding terms…the limit of this sum is:
1
r
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Deposits =1
0.1x700
Deposits = 700 x 10 = 7,000
1
r D =New Money X
D = 700 [1+ (0.9) + (0.9)2+ (0.9)3 + (0.9)4 +…]
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1r D = x Original
Injection
1
r D = x New
Reserves
1
r D = x R
Money
Multiplier
Multiple by which deposits increase for every $1 increase in
reserves
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1
0.1 D = x 700
L = D - R
Increase in Deposits = 7,000Of these 7,000 in newly created deposits, only
700 is “real reserves” and the rest6,300 are loans: money that does not exist.
L = 7,000- 700 = 6,300
How many loans were created?
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All BanksReserves
Each bank holds a portion of the new deposit as reserves and makes loans that become $6,300 in additional deposits
Deposit=700
R=700
All BanksDeposits
The “how much money banks create out of
thin air, charge interest and make a clean
profit” multiplier
Multiplier = 10
Loans generate additional bank deposits causing an increase in the Money Supply:
The increase in the money supply ( Ms) is:
The increase in Deposits + increase in the amount of currency held by the public.
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Ms = deposits + currency outside banks
Ms = Currency + Deposits
Federal Reserve Bank
Bank Reserves R = 80
R = r D80 = 0.1 D
D =800
Bank Reserves increase to
R = 80+700R=780
New Deposit New Loan
R = r D780= 0.1 DD =7,800
Or:D= R (1/r)
D= 700 (1/0.1)D= 7,000
700
New Money Money in circulationDepositsD =800
Money in circulation
New Deposit New Loan
New D = 600+7,000
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Deposits
Bank OWNS
Loans
Reserves
Bank OWESAssets Liabilities
Capital = Assets - Liabilities
All BanksDeposits
D=800bd1= 200bd2= 180bd3=120bd4= 130bd5= 170b
Ms = Currency held outside banks + Demand Deposits(900b) (800b)(1,700b)
Ms = Currency held outside banks + Demand Deposits
(900b) (7,800b)(8,700b)
+1,000
D= 7,800
New Money
700
+2,000
+2,000+2,000
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In our story, the original 700B deposit would set in motion a chain of loans and deposits at several banks…
What if part of the loans are kept as “cash” and only part of it becomes another deposit at a bank?
The deposit expansion will be smaller than (1/r )*R
The multiplier: 1/r is the same…but
there will be less money for banks to multiply.
Required Reserves (RR). The amount that must be held by law, the required reserve ratio times deposits:
RR = r(D) Actual Reserves (AR). The amount of
reserves actually held by the bank. This could be higher or lower than RR.
Excess Reserves(ER). Any amount held above required reserves.
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In our story, banks kept ONLY required amount of reserves (r%)
What if one or more banks in the chain hold more reserves than required?
The deposit expansion will be smaller than (1/r )*R
1. The amount of Excess Reserves held by banks.2. Currency leak: loans leaking into currency held
outside banks
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The Money Multiplier (1/r)
Gives the largest change in deposits that can occur if there is no currency leak no excess reserves.
All BanksDeposits
D=600b
d1= 100bd2= 80bd3=120b
d4= 130bd5= 170b
When checks are used to make a payment, the money simply changes “owner”
Only new money is multiplie
d!
The FED: Monetary Policy
The public: Deposit money previously held as cash.
Banks: Lend excess reserves.
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New Money
700
+1,000
D= 7,600
+2,000
+2,000+2,000
1.The following is the “T-Account” for the entire banking system. Banks are fully loaned
up r= 7%
Reserves = D= 1,000
Loans =
The money multiplier isa)Reserves for the entire banking system are
a)Loans for the entire banking system are
b)If the amount of currency held outside banks by the public is 600,000, the money supply is:
1.The following is the “T-Account” for the entire banking system. Banks are fully loaned up r= 7%
Reserves = D= 1,000
Loans =
The money multiplier is 1/0.07 = 14.28a)Reserves for the entire banking system are 0.07*1,000=70b)Loans for the entire banking system are D-R =1,000-70=930c)If the amount of currency held outside banks by the public is 600, the money supply is=Deposits + currency = 1,000+600=1,600
1.The following is the “T-Account” for the entire banking system. Banks are fully loaned up r= 10%
Reserves = D= 600b
Loans =
a) Reserves for the entire banking system are _____b) Loans for the entire banking system are ________c) If the amount of currency held outside banks by
the public is 700b, the Money Supply is __________
D = 700
Currency = 800
r=10%
R=70
L= 630
1b previously held as currency by
public is deposited into the banking
system.
D = R x (10)=10
r=10%
R=1
L= D – R = 9
Ms = 800 + 700=1,500
R = 71 D = 710
L = 639
Ms = (800-1) + (700+10 ) Ms = 799 +
710Ms = Currency +D
1509
Ms = -1 + +10+9
R=?
L= ?
Ms = ?
2. The following is the “T-Account” for the entire banking system. Banks are fully loaned up. Currency held outside banks = 500. r = 8%
Reserves = D= 1,000
Loans =
Suppose that the public deposits in the banking system 100 previously held as currency outside banks.a)Reserves in the banking system (Increase/decrease/remain the same)__________ by ____________ b)Loans in the banking system (Increase/decrease/remain the same)__________ by ____________ c)Deposits in the banking system (Increase/decrease/remain the same)__________ by ____________ d)The money supply (Increase/decrease/remain the same)__________ by ____________
2. Currency held outside banks = 500. r = 8%.The public deposits in the banking system 100
previously held as currency outside banks.
a) Reserves in the banking system increase by 100b) Deposits in the banking system increase by 1,250 c) Loans in the banking system increase by 1,150d) The money supply increase by 1,150
Reserves =80 + 100 D= 1,000 + 100(1/0.08) = 1,000+ 1,250= 2,250
L = 920 +(1,250 - 100) = 2,070
Ms= 1,250 +(– 100) = 1,150
R= 80 D= 1,000
Loans =920 R=New
$D= New $*(Money Multiplier)
L=D-R Ms=D + Currency Ms= 500+ 1,000
Ms= 400+ 2,250
D = 700
Currency = 800
r=10%
R=71
L= 629
1b held as excess reserves by banks is used to make loans
D = 1 x (10)=10
r=10%
R=0
L= D – R = 10
Ms = 800 +700=1,500
R = 71 D = 710
L = 639
AR=71RR=70ER=1
Ms = 800+700+10 Ms = 800 +
710Ms = D + Currency
1510
Ms = +10 + 0+10
10 – 0
3. The following is the “T-Account” for the entire banking system.
r= 10%Reserves = 190 D= 1,000
Loans =
Suppose that banks decide to hold only the required amount of reserves.a)Reserves in the banking system (Increase/decrease/remain the same)__________ by ____________ b)Loans in the banking system (Increase/decrease/remain the same)__________ by ____________ c)Deposits in the banking system (Increase/decrease/remain the same)__________ by ____________ d)The money supply (Increase/decrease/remain the same)__________ by ____________
810
3. The following is the “T-Account” for the entire banking system.
r= 10%
Actual Reserves = 190Required Reserves = 100
D= 1,000 + 90*10 D =1,900
Excess Reserves = 90
Loans = 810 + 900 = 1,710 Ms=900
Suppose that banks decide to hold only the required amount of reserves.a)Reserves in the banking system remain the same.b)Loans in the banking system Increase by 900c)Deposits in the banking system Increase by 900d)The money supply Increase by 900
Reserves = 190 D= 1,000
Loans = 810
D= New $*(Money Multiplier)R=0
L=D-R
Ms=D Reserves = 190
D =1,900
Loans = 1,710
2. The following is the “T-Account” for the entire banking system. Banks are fully loaned up. Currency held outside banks = 700b r = 10%
Reserves = D= 600b
Loans =
Suppose that the public deposits in the banking system 50b previously held as currency outside banks.a)Reserves in the banking system (Increase/decrease/remain the same)__________ by ____________ b)Loans in the banking system (Increase/decrease/remain the same)__________ by ____________ c)Deposits in the banking system (Increase/decrease/remain the same)__________ by ____________ d)The money supply (Increase/decrease/remain the same)__________ by ____________
3. The following is the “T-Account” for the entire banking system.
r= 10%Reserves = 70b D= 600b
Loans =
Actual reserves =______; Required reserves= _______;Excess reserves= _________Suppose that banks decide to hold only the required amount of reserves.a)Reserves in the banking system (Increase/decrease/remain the same)__________ by ____________ b)Loans in the banking system (Increase/decrease/remain the same)__________ by ____________ c)Deposits in the banking system (Increase/decrease/remain the same)__________ by ____________ d)The money supply (Increase/decrease/remain the same)__________ by ____________
The reward for those who give up spending today in order to spend tomorrowThe cost paid by those who want/need to spend today money they will make in the futureThe return the bank earns on a loan
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Car loans
Current law requires the Fed chairman to report to Congress on monetary policy and the economy at least twice a year, and he testifies far more frequently than that.
The Federal Banking Agency Audit Act of 1978 put most of the Fed's operations under Government Accountability Office (GAO) purview (bank supervision, consumer regulation, payment systems.)
81
Congress gave the GAO authority to audit emergency credit facilities (designed for the rescue of individual institutions such as AIG and Bear Stearns)
Congressional auditors have been blocked from reviewing the Fed's monetary policy operations, direct lending to banks, loans to foreign governments and other international financing organizations since 1978, when a law was passed to shield the central bank from politics.
82
83
The House Financial Services Committee approved (43-26) a measure (sponsored by Texas Republican Ron Paul) that would direct the congressional GAO to expand its audits of the Fed to include decisions about interest rates and lending to individual banks.
were
Requires the GAO to conduct an audit by the end of 2010 and report findings to congress.
Overrides a law that shields the Fed's monetary-policy decisions from GAO inquiries.
The Comptroller General may now audit actions taken to extend credit to a single and specific partnership or corporation.
84
The audit would detail who the Fed lends to, how much it lends and what agreements it has with foreign central banks and financing organizations.
Proponents want the Fed to be audited at least annually.
GAO audits could publicly reveal reams of information that now remain private, sometimes indefinitely: The Fed doesn't identify banks to whom it lends directly for fear of sparking a run on the bank.
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“It would be a major loss to the country if the Fed were incapable of running an independent monetary policy. If you have the GAO, after the fact, offering its opinions on whether a certain monetary policy action is correct or incorrect, the active deliberations that are so critical to building a meaningful consensus at the FOMC will begin to become unhelpfully cautious.”
Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan
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Threatens Fed’s ability to make monetary policy without political
interference.
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Support OpposeCampaign for LibertyPublic CitizenAmericans for Tax ReformU.S. Public Interest Research Groups
Wells FargoMorgan StanleyJ.P. Morgan Deutsche BankFord Motor CompanyComerica Bank
The transparency Act was combined into The Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2009 .
Passed the House on December 11, 2009 on a vote of 223-202.
The vote was mostly along party lines, with no Republicans voting for the bill.
Paul, objecting to some of the provisions of the combined bill, voted against passage despite the inclusion of the audit provisions he had been proposing for years…
88
“While I respect his independence … I hope that independently he will consider that my views are the ones that should be followed."
89
Central Bank Independence
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 1 2 3 4 5
Index of Central Bank Independence
Ave
rag
e In
flat
ion
Rat
e 19
55 -
198
8 Spain
New Zealand ItalyUK
AustraliaFrance/Norway/Sweden
Denmark
JapanCanada
NetherlandsBelgium UNITED STATES
SwitzerlandGermany
Less More
Where does it come from? Who controls it? Why it has value? Why it loses value?
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