intercontinental scale transport of air pollution
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Intercontinental scale transport of air pollution. John Murlis Department of Geography University College London Based on a presentation by Henning Rodhe Stockholm University. Overview. Pollution acts on a wide range of scales Impacts vary across scales - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Intercontinental scaletransport of air pollution
John MurlisDepartment of GeographyUniversity College London
Based on a presentation by Henning RodheStockholm University
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Overview
• Pollution acts on a wide range of scales• Impacts vary across scales• Management regimes developed, but gaps remain• Evidence for impacts on different scales:
– Acidification/Eutrophication
– Ozone
– Aerosols/Particulate matter
• Conclusions
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Pollution Acts on a Range of Scales
• Local
• Regional
• Intercontinental/Hemispheric
• Global
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The Great London Smog
Disaster, 1952
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Regional scale pollutantsLifetime days to weeks
Components related to - Acidification (SOx, NOx, NHx)- Eutrophication (NOx, NHx) and- Aerosol formation (SOx, NOx,
NHx, Carbon compounds)Particulate matter
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Regional air pollutionWhat are the issues?
• Acidification: soil chemistry, lake ecology (SOx, NOx, NHx)
• Eutrophication: algal blooms, biodiversity (NOx, NHx)
• Excess ozone: health, vegetation, climate (NOx, VOC, CO)
• Aerosols: health, climate (SOx, NOx, NHx, VOC,..)
• Corrosion (SOx, H+, O3, NOx, )• Toxic species (Hg, Pb, Cs-137, PCB …)
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Continental and hemispheric scale
pollutants
Life time weeks to months
Tropospheric ozoneand its precursors(NOx, VOC, CO..)
Particulate Matter?
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Daniel Jacob, 2002
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Huntzinger &Schlager 2004
North America CO over Germany
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Model calculations by Derwent et al. 2002
Origins of model ozone at Mace Head, Ireland
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Global scale pollutants
Lifetime > years
* Longlived greenhouse gasesand ozone depleting substances: CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs,..
* Stratospheric aerosols * Mercury
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Keating et al., 2004
Evolution of the perceived spatial scale of air pollution problems in the US
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Regional/Hemispheric Scale
• Acidification and Eutrophication
• Sulphur and Nitrogen
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Soil sensitivity to acid deposition
Kuylenstierna et al. Ambio 2001
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Terrestria l E co system S en sitivity to A cid ic D ep o sitio n in So u th A sia
S ource : K uylenstie rna et a l. 200 1
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Simplified model of precipitation acidity:
[H+] = [SO42-] + [NO3
-] - [NH4+] -
[Ca2+]
When [H+] > 0: ‘real’ [H+]
When [H+] < 0: [HCO3-]
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Number of years to deplete base cations in soil
NE India 150 (40 – 220)
Malaysia 110 (40 – 160)
S China 17 (6 – 35)
Hicks et al. 2004
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Sulfur
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Continental scale transport of man-made sulfur
Tarrason & Iversen, 1998
European sources North American sources
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Magnuz EngardtSMHISwedenPers. com.
Sulfur deposition
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MATCH model calculations (RAPIDC)by Magnuz Engardt, SMHI, Sweden
Oxidized sulfur
Estimates of S depositionEmissions only from Andra Pradesh, Kamataka, Goa
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Nitrogen
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MATCH model calculations (RAPIDC)by Magnuz Engardt, SMHI, Sweden
Oxidized sulfur Oxidized nitrogen
Estimates of S and N depositionEmissions only from Andra Pradesh, Kamataka, Goa
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S and N
Future Emissions?
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Global SO2 emission scenarios (SRES)Tg S/yr
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
120
60
180
Nakicenovic et al. 2000
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emissions of SO2 from land-based sourcesin the 25 EU countries and from internationalshipping in European sea areas
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IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
NOx
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N America
Europe
FSU China
E Asia
S Asia
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Conclusions on S and N(Acidification and Eutrophication
Intercontinental transport does occur but how significant is it?
UNECE Task force will assess for N Northern Hemisphere
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Ozone
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From Wild et al.JGR June 2004
Contributions to ozone over Japanfrom Europe, US,East Asia and Japan
Total
European
N American
E Asian
Local
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Estimate of a possible increase in surface ozone2000 to 2100
Prather et al. GRL 2003
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Keating et al.2004
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Conclusions on ozone
*Potential for large increase of ozone levels in many tropical and subtropical countries (China, India, Africa) as NOx emissions go up
* Ozone and its precursors (CO, VOC, NOx) subject to substantial intercontinental transport
* N H background of ozone may reach standardvalues set for health during this century
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Aerosols
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Pollution haze over NE India and the Bay of Bengal
December 2004
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Brown haze over Nepal, UNEP ABC Assessment report 2002
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Aerosol optical depth over ChinaAugust 2004
MODIS satellite data
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Fig. 5. Simulated (top) and obs
Extinction of sunlightdue to aerosols in China
Observations - JJA
Model - JJA
Qian et al. Tellus B 2003
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N of ITCZS of ITCZ
Total
NSS-sulfate
Ammonium
Potassium
Norman et al. 2003
Aerosol componentsin surface airduring ABC
Calcium
Sea salt
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Trans-Pacific transport path of Asian dust to North America in April 1998
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Cloud forcing dueto sulfate aerosols
Temperatureresponse
Ekman & Rodhe, 2003
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Conclusions on aerosols
Intercontinental scale transport doesoccur (episodically) but how
significant as a driver of control strategy ?
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1. Aerosols and health: urban & regional
2. Aerosols and climate: global (interactionswith radiation and with clouds)
3. Tropospheric ozone: regional/hemispheric(agriculture, health)
3. N, S: regional/hemispheric (Acidification/eutrophication)
A subjective expert ”concern list” of air pollution issues at different scales:
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Prospects for the future
- Sulfur emissions:up in China, India ..down in Europe, US ..global total up - or down
- NOx: up in many developing countries- NH3:?- Ca: probably down
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Conclusions• Transport on a Regional/Hemispheric Scale
established for wide range of air pollutants• Further work needed to establish full significance• At this stage, most concern about tropospheric
ozone• Some concern about pm/aerosol• N and S Significant but regional transport still
dominates• As local and regional pollution comes under
control, longer range transport will be more significant