interest risk management

Upload: padam-singh

Post on 05-Apr-2018

217 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    1/61

    RiskManagementofFixedIncomePortfolios

    N.Gershun

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    2/61

    2

    Duration:MeasuringtheSensitivityofBondPricestoRateChanges

    A.TheRoadmapAhead. Weareinterestedintworisksrelatedtotheownershipofbonds(investorsperspective)andhowtohedge(insureagainst)theserisks.Theyare:

    (i)Interestratepricerisk:Thisisthepossibilitythatinterestratesmayrisecausingbondpricestodecline.Allbondsaresusceptibletothisrisk.Itiscloselyinvolvedwithreinvestmentrisk.

    a.Ariseininterestratesisalsoarisktoborrowers:theiranticipatedfutureborrowingcostswillrise.Wewillalsodealwithinterestrateriskfromtheborrowersperspective.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    3/61

    3

    (ii)Defaultrisk: Thisisthepossibilitythatthebondsowner(thelender)maynotreceivehispromised

    interestandprincipalpayments(eitheratall,oratthepresettimes).ThisriskappliestoallbondsexceptthoseissuedbytheFederalAuthoritiesoftheestablishedOECDcountries.U.S.Treasuriesaredeemedtohave

    zerodefaultrisk,forexample.

    Wewillfirstconsiderinterestratepriceriskandits

    mitigation.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    4/61

    4

    Interestrateriskmanagement isnotonlyofconcerntoindividualinvestors,butalsotofinancialinstitutions.

    ConsiderahypotheticalPensionFund.Assets Liabilities

    20yr,10%couponbond perpetualbenefitsof$1,000peryear

    value:$10,000 value:$10,000

    (thetermstructureisflatat10%)

    Assets Liabilities

    20yr,10%couponbond perpetualbenefitsof$1,000peryear

    value:$16,231 value:$20,000

    ThePensionFundisnowinsolvent.

    Nowsupposeinterestratesdeclineto5%

    WhyIsInterestRateRiskmanagementImportant?

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    5/61

    5

    2.Asecondexample:ahypotheticalbank.

    Howdidthishappen?Thesetwobondpricesreactedverydifferentlytoaratedecline.Bothassetsandliabilitiesroseinvalue,butthe

    valueoftheliabilitiesrosemuchfaster.

    Assets LiabilitiesandEquity

    $10,000,10yr. $9,500DD

    loan@7% $500shareholderequity

    $10,000 $10,000

    (termstructureisflatat7%,semi-annualcompounding).

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    6/61

    6

    Now,supposeinterestratesriseto10%forallmaturities.

    Assets LiabilitiesandEquity

    $8130-- 7%, $9,500DD

    10yr.loan $1,370shareholderequity

    $8130 $8,130

    Thebankisbankrupt.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    7/61

    7

    Notethatforthepensionfund,itwasadeclineinratesthatledtobankruptcywhereasforthebankit

    wasanincreaseinrates.

    Theyareexamplesofadurationmismatch anditisthemostcommonreasonforfinancialdistress

    amongfinancialinstitutions.

    Thenotionofduration isspecialized(tothebondmarket)languageforbondpricesensitivitytoaratechange.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    8/61

    8

    Intuitively,bondswithsteeperprice-ratecurveswillbemorepricesensitivetoratechanges,andthustheirslopesshouldbelargerin

    absolutevalue.

    Astherateschange,sodoestheslopeoftheprice-ratefunction.

    Bondwithhighratesensitivity

    Bondwithlowratesensitivity

    BondPrice

    P0

    P1

    r0 r1 r r

    Bond

    Price

    IntuitionBehindDuration

    Highdurationbondsareverysensitivetochangesinrates.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    9/61

    DurationofDiscountBonds(i) Percentagepricechange:

    0

    0

    P 1T r.

    P (1 r)

    +

    Thetimetomaturity,T,intheaboveexpression

    issaidtobethebondsMacaulayduration,orsimplyitsduration;theexpressionD/(1+r)

    isdefinedasthemodifiedduration,writtenDM

    .

    (ii) Absolutepricechanges: P0 -DM P0 r.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    10/61

    10

    DurationofCouponBondsSinceanycouponbondcanbeexpressedasaportfolioofdiscountbonds,thedurationofacoupon

    bondiss theweightedaverageofthepricesensitivitiesofitsconstituentdiscountbonds.t= 0 1 2... T

    Tcoupon bond t T

    t 1 0 0

    PV(C) PV(MV )D t T

    P P=

    = +

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    11/61

    11

    PortfoliosofBondsSupposewemanagedaportfolioofbondsofvariousdurations.

    Bythesamelogic(acouponbondisitselfsimplyaportfolioofdiscountbonds)aswehavejustused:

    DP =w1D1+w2D2 +...+wNDN

    wi =theproportionoftheportfoliostotalvaluerepresentedbybondsoftypei

    Di = thedurationofbondsoftypei

    durationoftheportfolio

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    12/61

    12

    TheManagementofBondPortfoli Risk:TheIntuition

    1.Sinceinterestratesmaychange,thereispriceriskinherentinholdingaportfolioofbonds.Ifratesrise,inparticular,thevalueoftheportfoliowill

    decline.2.Therearemanywaystohedgebuttheyallamounttothesamethingconceptually:append

    totheportfolioothersecuritieswhosepricemovements,inresponsetointerestrate

    changes,areoppositetothoseofthesecurities

    alreadypresent.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    13/61

    13

    ImmunizationIfwewanttoprotectourselvesperfectlyagainstsmall (!)interestratechanges:

    MHedged PortfolioD 0.=

    Thismeansthatachangeinrateswillleaveour

    hedgedportfoliosvaluelargelyunaltered:lossesononepartwillbeoffsetbygainsintheother.

    {Hedged original bond hedgingP .,porfolio securities=

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    14/61

    InsuringAgainstDefaultUsingCreditDefaultSwaps

    WhatisaCreditDefaultSwap?

    1. Whentheexpressionswap isused,thinkintuitivelyofthepurchaseorsaleof

    insurance.a.Inmoststandardinsurancearrangements:(ii) Theinsuredpaysafixed cashflow the

    insurancepremium

    (ii) Thesellermakesavariable payment:thevalueoftheinsureditemifdisasterstrikes,andzerootherwise.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    15/61

    b. CreditDefaultSwapsarenodifferentexceptthattheinsurableevent thedisasteragainstwhichyouinsure isthedefaultofsomebond.

    2. Aninvestorwhobuysabondmayalsobuyinsuranceagainstaspecificdefaultordefault-likeevent

    a. forexample,thedefault-likeeventcouldbearatingscutbytheratingsagenciesfromaAAAratingtoaAArating.Itcouldalso (totaketheextremesituation)representthebankruptcyoftheissuer.

    b.- Theownerofthebond(insurancepurchaser)paysafixedstreamofpaymentstotheinsurer;- Theproviderofinsurance(insuranceseller)paysavariablepaymenttotheinsuredonlyifthereissomesortofadefault.

    Insurers:AIG,HedgeFunds,Citibank

    c. Thetimehorizoncanbeasmuchas5years.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    16/61

    ASimpleSingleNameCreditDefaultSwapThebuyerpaysanannualfeeorpremiumforparrecoverypayoutin

    theeventofadefault/bankruptcy.

    1. Themechanism:Ifnodefault:

    Ifdefault:

    premiumonsomenotionalamount(say$100

    MMfacevalueofGMACSeniorDebt)

    creditriskisassignedtotheseller

    Buyer Seller

    Buyer Seller

    {BondsofparvalueGMAC$100MM}

    $100MMcash

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    17/61

    2. Anextremecasewherethedefaultedbondisworthless.

    Thepayofftothebuyeroftheinsurance,contingentondefault

    0

    Payoff

    toBuyer Par

    ValuePbond beinginsured

    0

    Payoff

    toSeller

    Par

    ValuePbond beinginsured

    Thebuyerhasessentiallypurchasedaspecialput-style

    option.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    18/61

    FeaturesofCDSsecurities

    1. Theyareverydifficulttopriceconceptually.

    Whymightthisbeso?

    2. Thereisnoorganized,liquidmarketforthese

    securitieswherereliablepricesmaybeinferred,althoughtheywereboughtandsoldOTC.Withbondpricesfalling,theyhavebecomeToxicAssets.

    3. Itisadifferentsenseofhedging thanwehaveemployedpreviously.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    19/61

    DynamicImmunizationwithInterestRateFuturesContracts

    Introduction:

    Adrawbacktoimmunizingviathedurationofbondportfoliosistheneedtorebalanceinresponsetorate

    shifts.Thismaycreatelargetransactioncostsasthenumberofbondsboughtorsoldmayendupbeingverylarge.Anotherway,inprinciple,istouse

    interestratefuturescontractsofsometype.

    19

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    20/61

    20

    TwoAdvantagesofImmunizingwith

    InterestRateFutures

    (i) thecompositionofthebondportfolioremainunchangedanddurationadjustedusingthefuturescontracts.

    (ii) transactionscostsoftradingfuturesaremuchlessthanbondtradingcosts.

    Theseconsiderationsareespeciallyimportantwhenthebondstradeinthin markets.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    21/61

    21

    FuturesContracts

    Afuturescontractisverysimilartoaforwardcontract(thelanguagefuturesprice replacesthelanguageforwardprice evenasthenumberisthesame),butwiththemarkingtomarketfeature.

    Nomoneychangeshandsatsigning.

    ThesecontractsforTreasurysecuritiesareexchangetraded(verylowtransactionscosts).

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    22/61

    22

    SummaryPointsRegardingFutures

    Theyareexchangetraded

    Theyaresettleddaily(markingtomarket)

    Closingoutafuturespositioniseasilyaccomplishedbyenteringintoanoffsettingtrade.Mostcontractsareclosedoutthiswaypriortoexpiration.

    Contractsnotclosedoutbeforematurityaresettledbydelivery(choiceofinstrumentanddateofdelivery).Afewcontractsaresettledincash(e.g.,stockindex

    futures).

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    23/61

    23

    DurationofFutures

    Thefuturescontractitselfdoesnothaveaduration.

    Thefuturesprice,however,anditssensitivitytoratechangesdependsonthedurationandyieldoftheunderlyingsecurityexpectedtoprevailatthecontractmaturitydate.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    24/61

    24

    HedgingwithFutures:AnExample

    Hedge$10MportfolioofBondC

    UseaT-BillFuturescontractcallingforthedeliveryof$1MMfacevalueofT-billshaving90

    daysremaininguntilmaturity.

    =>DurationofT-BillFutures=90days,or.25

    year.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    25/61

    25

    HedgingwithFututures (cont.)InstrumentsUsedintheAnalysis

    Coupon Maturity Yield Price Duration

    BondC 4% 15yrs 12% 455.13 9.60

    T-BillFutures -- 1/4yr. 12% 970,873.00 .25

    1,000,000$970,853 Futures Price

    .121

    4

    = =

    +

    The$10mportfolioofBondCrepresents21,972bonds.

    Objective:perfectlyhedgetheportfolioofCbonds.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    26/61

    26

    Solution:

    (i)Vp =PCNC +FPT-Bill NT-Bill

    Vp =portfoliovalue Nc =#ofCbonds

    PC =bondCprice NT-Bill =#ofT-billfuturesFPT-Bill =T-billfuturesprices

    (ii)and:DP VP =DCPCNC +DT-Bill FPT-Bill NT-Bill

    VP =$10m NC =21,972

    DP =0(desired) DT-Bill =.25yearsDC =9.6years FPT-Bill =$970,873PC =$455.13

    Write(sellshort)395.5T-BillFuturescontracts

    0=10M(9.6)+.25(970,873)NT-bill

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    27/61

    Now,assumeashiftintermstructurefrom12%to13%.

    Therelevantpricesarenow:

    PC =$418.39 FPTBill =

    $1,000,000

    $968,523.131

    4

    =

    +

    Lossonportfolio =21,972Pc=21,972x(418.39 455.13)

    =- $807,251

    GainsonFutures =- 395.5(968,523 970,873)=$929,425;weareoverhedged,as

    expected

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    28/61

    28

    OtherInstruments

    1. T-billfuturesarenolongertraded.Attheshortendofthe

    curve, theactionisnowallinEurodollarfutureswhichhavecashsettlementbasedon3monthLIBOR.

    2. Considera10yearT-bondcontract.Thisisfor$100,000

    facevalueofdeliverablebonds.Whatwoulddiffervis--vistheabovecalculation?

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    29/61

    29

    TheEurodollarMarketTheBasicsoftheEurodollarMarket

    1.Whatisit?

    AloanmarketforUS$denominatedborrowingandlending(US$CDdepositsarereceivedandUS$denominatedloansextended)basedoutsidetheUnitedStates.

    ThisisalargerinterestratemarketthantheUSTreasury

    market.

    2.Whereisitbased?

    ItisbasedprimarilyinLondon,butalsointheCayman

    Islands,Tokyo,andHongKong.

    Similaroffshoremarketsexistforothercurrencies,e.g.,thepound,yen,etc.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    30/61

    30

    HowDoBalancesGetCreated?

    SupposeGeneralElectricreceives$1MMfromthesaleofatransformeranddepositsthemoneyinacheckingaccountatJPMorganChaseinNewYork.

    Itmightthenpurchasea6-month$1MMEurodollarCDfromHSBCinLondonwhereitremainsasadollardeposit(notexchangedintoanequivalentamountofpounds).

    Thismoney,asidefromanyreserverequirementHSBCmaywishtoimposeonitself,canthenbeloanedouttofirmswhowishtotakeout$denominatedloans.

    ThisentiresystemoftakingdollardepositsinLondonandlendingthemprimarilyfromLondonisreferredtoastheEurodollarmarket.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    31/61

    31

    EvolutioninEurodollarMarketSizeinbillionsofUS$ofinternationalbankclaims

    0

    5000

    10000

    15000

    20000

    25000

    30000

    19641976

    19821991

    19931995

    19971999

    20012003

    20052007

    Gross

    Net

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    32/61

    32

    TheNatureoftheLoansMadeintheEurodollarMarket

    Exclusivelyfloatingrateloans,withaninterestrateresetperiodofatmost6months.

    Loansinthismarketaregenerallyextendedonlytofirst

    tierindustrialfirmsandfinancialinstitutions.

    Thedurationoftheloans,whicharetheassetsofthebanks,isatmost0.5year.

    Theborrowerbearsallassociatedinterestraterisk.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    33/61

    33

    ThisMarketisBenchmarkedbyLIBOR

    (theLondonInterbankOfferRate)1. Liboristherateatwhichlargebanksoperatinginthe

    Eurodollarmarketextendloanstooneanother.Itisarate

    forwhichtheborrowingbankmaydefault(oneofthesebankscouldconceivablyfailandnotdischargeisloancommitmentstoanotherbank.Thispossibilityisnolongerremote).

    2.ManymarketsarebenchmarkedfromtheLiborrate.Thismeansthatmanyotherloans/bondsissuedallovertheworldhavetermsthatallowtheirinterestratetoberesetevery6monthsatarateequaltothe6monthLiborrateforthat6monthperiodplussomepremiumorspread.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    34/61

    34

    TEDSpread

    HowlargeisthedefaultpremiumonLIBOR?Itcanbemeasured:

    TEDspread:6-monthLIBORminus6-monthTreasury

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    35/61

    35

    0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1

    1.2

    1.4

    1.6

    1.8

    2

    9/30/0512/14/052/27/ 065/13/ 067/27/ 0610/10/0612/ 24/063/9/075/23/ 078/6/0710/20/071/3/083/18/ 086/1/08

    TEDspread1/2006- 3/2008

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    36/61

    36

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    3

    3.5

    4

    4.5

    3-M TED spread in

    2008

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    37/61

    37

    FloatingRate:AnExample

    AmountofLoan:$100MM Terms:LIBOR+50basispoints(.5%)

    6Mo.

    LIBOR.02

    Rate:

    .025 .031 .033

    t=0 ...

    (6mo.) (1yr.) (1.5yr.) (2yr.)

    Loanrates: .025 .030 .036 .038

    EndofPeriodPaymentby

    Borrower:

    2.5M 3M 3.6M 3.8M

    (paymentsaremadeatendoftheperiod)

    37

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    38/61

    38

    HowDoBorrowersHedgeTheirInterestRateRisk?

    Eurodollarfuturesandforwardcontractsrepresentavailabletoolsforthispurpose.

    Whatifaborrowerwishestoremovethisriskona

    regularbasis?

    Aswapcontractaccomplishesthis.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    39/61

    39

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    40/61

    40

    HedgingwithEurodollarFutures

    TheconceptisidenticaltotheprioruseofT-billfutures:theinvestordesiringtohedgemustwriteEurodollarfuturesintheappropriatenumbers.Thesewrittencontactswillbecomemorevaluableasratesrise(prices

    fall).Asidefromafewdetails/conventionsofmeasurement,thecalculationsmimicthoseofT-billfutures.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    41/61

    41

    HowtheEurodollarFP(FuturesPrice)isto

    beInterpreted1. Asof1/27/09,11:27AM,wehavethefollowinginformation:

    FuturesPrices2/28/08

    April00 last open high low vol.

    expirationdate

    offutures

    contract

    98.895 98.915 98.915 178

    2. SupposewetransactedforonecontractatthecurrentFP.

    t=0 T(April09)

    FP=98.895Weinterpret98.895asidentifyingthe(annualized!)forward3monthLIBORraterelativetoApril2009asbeing

    100 98.895=1.105%,or.01105(1.105%).

    Thecontractamountis$1,000,000for3months.

    T+.25April Libor.25f .01105=

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    42/61

    42

    Supposeyousigned(wentlong)inafuturescontractwhenFP=98.895,andduringthelifeofthecontract,theFPrisesto99(forwardLIBORfallsto1%);then:

    Longpositionreceives(1,000,000)(.00105)(.25)=+$262.50

    Shortpositionreceives: (1,000,000)(.00105)(.25)= $262.50.

    (Thereisonlycashsettlement.)

    99 98.895100

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    43/61

    43

    Supposeatsomepoint,theFPfallsto97(forwardLIBORrisesto3%,annualized);then,

    Longpositionreceives(1,000,000)(.01895)(.25)=$4737.50

    97 98.895

    100

    Shortpositionreceives: (1,000,000)(. 01895)(.25)=$4737.50.

    Aswithanyofourhedginginstruments(T-bonds,T-billfutures),shortpositionsinEurodollarfuturesincreaseinvalueasratesrise.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    44/61

    44

    Example:HedgingaBondPortfoliowith3-MonthLIBORFutures

    1. Supposethetermstructureisflat.TheTermstructure

    ofLIBORrates andtheforwardLIBORcurve wouldbeessentiallyflataswell.

    2. AnExample:

    Youown$10MofbondsofD=6whentheinterestrate(LIBOR)environmentisflatatr = 5.14%.Youareconcernedthatratesmayriseby.5%.Hedgeyour

    positionwithEurodollarfutures.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    45/61

    45

    Whatisyourestimatedlossifyoudonothedge?

    P PD 6V V r 10 (.005)(1 r) (1.0514)

    =

    +

    $285,334=

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    46/61

    46

    Perfectly hedgingusingEurodollarfutures

    meansDP =0.

    P P 1 1 1 EDF EDFV D n P D n D $1, 000, 000 = +

    EDF0 10MM 6 n (.25) (1, 000, 000= +

    EDF

    10MM 6n 240 contracts; i.e.,

    (.25)(1MM)

    = =

    write240contracts.

    you receive gains

    and losses relative

    to $1 MM

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    47/61

    47

    Supposeratesdoriseasfeared.

    Approximatelossonportfolio= $285,334Gainonfutures:

    - (240)(1,000,000)(.25)(-.005)= +$300,000

    +$15,000

    Weareslightlyoverhedged,astheoryremindsusmustbethe

    case.

    .94.36 94.86

    100

    SWAPS d h E d ll M k

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    48/61

    48

    TheNotionofaSWAP

    1. ForwardContractsallowborrowerstoremoveinterestrateriskoveraspecificfuturetimeperiod,sayiperiodsaheadfornperiods.

    Asaresult,wemustcontinuallysignsuchcontractsifwewishto

    removelongtermriskonaregularbasis.AconvenientwaytodothisisviaaSWAP.

    SWAPSandtheEurodollarMarket:a

    ThirdPerspectiveonInterestRateRiskManagement

    a.ThisisimportantbecauseEurodollarloansarefloatingrateloans.

    b.Standardforwardcontractsinthismarketare3x3 or3x6meaningthattheforwardcontractlocksinarateforin3monthsfromthe3monthsfollowingorin3monthsforthe6

    monthsfollowing.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    49/61

    49

    InterestRateSWAP:DefinitionAninterestrateSWAPisanenforceableagreementbetweentwopartiestoexchangecashflowsperiodbyperiod.

    - Onepartypaysafixedratepaymentandreceivesavariablefloatingratepayment.Thispartyistheinsured.

    - Thecounterpartypaysthefloatingrateandreceives

    thefixedratepayment.Thispartybearstherisk.

    Theseratesareappliedtoanagreed-uponfixednotional amount.Theresultingpaymentsarewhat

    isexchanged.

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    50/61

    50

    UsesofSWAPS

    1.Theusesofsuchinstrumentsarethreefold:

    theygiveaccesstofixedorfloatingratecapitalmarkets

    theyallowparticipantstomanagetheirasset/liabilitystructuremoreeffectively

    theyprovideatoolforhedginginterestraterisk

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    51/61

    LOANS

    8%

    BANK

    pays7%

    SWAPDEALER

    receives6mo.LIBOR

    51

    Assets Liabilities

    $100MM $100MM

    10yearloanat8% 6mo.CDsat5%

    Every6monthstheBankhastorefinancetheCDs,whoseratesaretypicallytiedtoLIBOR.

    Suppose,forsimplicity,theCDrateistheLIBORrate.ConsideraSWAPwherebytheBankexchangestheirvariableliabilityforafixedrateliabilityat7%.

    Nowthebankonlyhastoworryaboutthecreditrisk oftheborrowerandtheSWAPdealer.

    DEPOSITORS

    Example:ManagingAssetsandLiabilitiesConsideraBankwithaverysimplebalancesheet:

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    52/61

    52

    2. Whowantsfloating?Whowantsfixed?

    SWAPScanbethoughtofasinsuranceagainstratechanges.

    Wantstoreceivevariableandpayafixedpayment

    Wantstoreceivefixedandpayvariable

    a.SpeculatorswhobelieveEurodollarrateswillrise

    Speculatorswhobelieverateswillfall

    b.Bankswhichhavefixedrateloans(mortgages)butvariablerateobligations

    (CDs)

    Bankswhichhavevariablerateassets(mortgages)andwantto

    reduceriskinthispartoftheirportfolio

    c.Firmswithvariablerateloans,yetsteadycashflowstreams(e.g.,drug

    firms;industrialfirms)

    Firmswithvariablestreamsofincomebutwhohavefixed

    obligationsandwanttoreducerisk

    Th M h i f SWAP

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    53/61

    53

    TheMechanismofaSWAP

    1.Whatactuallyisswapped?Itisonlythefixedandfloatingratepaymentsthemselves(coupons) onagivennotionalprincipal thatareexchanged.

    2. TimeHorizon:specifiedbytheSWAPcontract.Inprincipalitcanbefor

    anytimeperiod:1year,5years,10years,etc.3.ExampleofaSWAPcontract:

    XpaysY:10%fixedrateperyearonanotional$50MYpaysX:6monthLIBORrateadjustedevery6months.

    Paymentsarethusexchangedevery6months:

    XpaysY:$50M=$2.5million(fixedrate).YpaysX:50Mx6monthLIBORrate(whichvaries floating

    rate)

    ThefixedrateisknownastheSWAPrate.

    102

    H I th SWAP R t D t i d?

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    54/61

    54

    HowIstheSWAPRateDetermined?

    ItisthatratewhichequatesthePVofthetwopaymentstreams. Itiscomputedastheresultofathreestepprocedure:

    Step1:Computethefloatingratepaymentsusingtheforward

    LIBORrates.Thesearetheno-arbitrageratesintheEurodollarmarket.

    Step2:DiscountthefloatingratepaymentsusingtheLIBORtermstructure toobtainthepresentvalueoftheexpectedfloatingrate

    payments. Step3:AdjusttheFixedRatetobringaboutequalityinthetwo

    presentvalues.

    ThisisanNPV=0procedurewithintheuniverseofLIBORsecurities.It

    thuscostsnothing, asidefromtransactionsfees,toenterintosuchcontracts.

    TheKeyIngredient:theForwardLIBORTermStructure

    An Example: Computing the SWAP Rate

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    55/61

    55

    AnExample:ComputingtheSWAPRate

    Considera1.5yearSWAPwiththreepaymentsexchanged.NotionalAmount$100M.AlthoughLIBORratesareavailableonlyuptooneyear,forwardLIBORratesareavailablefromBloombergorReuterssinceLIBORforwardcontractsaretraded.

    Weneed

    1.85% 2.2% 2.72% (annualized)

    LIBOR

    .5r ,LIBOR

    .5 .5f ,LIBOR

    1 .5f ,

    float.5Cfloat

    1Cfloat

    1.5C

    Thus, float.5C

    LIBOR

    .5r$100 M $.925 MM2

    =

    float

    1CLIBOR.5 .5f$100 M $1.1 MM2

    =

    float

    1.5CLIBOR

    1 .5f$100 M $1.36 MM2

    =

    =

    =

    =

    Thesearetheexpected noarbitrage-- floatingratepayments.

    Problem: LIBOR spot rates are available only up to one year

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    56/61

    t= 0 .5 1 1.5

    56

    Problem:LIBORspotratesareavailableonlyuptooneyear.

    However,knowledgeoftheforwardratesallowsus,inaworldof no(LIBOR)arbitrage,toconstructtheconsistentsetofcorrespondingspotrates.

    ThisisanothersenseofBootstrapping exceptthatitusesforwardratestoconstructspotrates.

    LIBOR

    .5 .5f

    2

    LIBOR

    1 .5f

    2

    LIBOR

    .5r

    2

    LIBOR

    1r

    2

    LIBOR

    1.5r

    2

    LIBOR

    .5r .01851 1 1.009252 2

    + = + =

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    57/61

    57

    2LIBOR LIBOR LIBOR

    1 .5 .5 .5r r f1 1 12 2 2

    + = + +

    = ( )

    Libor

    1

    .022

    1.00925 1 1.02035 r .0220492

    + = =

    3

    LIBOR LIBOR LIBOR LIBOR

    1.5 .5 .5 .5 1 .5r r f f 1 1 1 12 2 2 2

    + = + + +

    .022 .0272(1.00925) 1 1

    2 2

    + +

    =

    3LIBOR

    Libor1.51.5

    r1 1.03423 r .02256

    2

    + = =

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    58/61

    58

    3Libor1.5r1

    2

    +

    Thus,thevalueofthefloatingpaymentsis:

    2Libor

    1r12

    +

    FLOAT .925 MM 1.1MM 1.36 MMPV(1.00925) (1.02035) (1.03423)

    = + +

    =3.376MM

    Lastly we compute the SWAP rate where we discount the fixed

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    59/61

    Lastly,wecomputetheSWAPrate,wherewediscountthefixed

    paymentsatthesametermstructureofLIBORrates:LetSdenote theswapcashpayment

    PVFIXED =

    3 2 3LIBOR LIBOR LIBOR

    .5 1 1.5

    t 1

    S S S

    r r r1 1 12 2 2

    1.00925 1.02035 1.03423

    =

    + +

    + + +

    64748 64748 64748

    3.376MM=2.9377S

    =>S=1.149MM.

    Thisisa6month cashflow.Onanannualbasis:

    S=2(1.1498)=2.298MMOnanannualizedratebasis,thisisequivalentto

    Thisistheswaprate.Itisanoarbitrageratewithinthescopeof

    theLIBORfamilyofrates.

    2.298 MM2.298%

    100 MM=

    59

    Duration of a SWAP

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    60/61

    60

    1. ConsideranN-yearSWAP

    2. DurationofFixedside

    - SamedurationasanN-yearbondwithcouponrateS3. DurationofFloatingside

    - AlwayshaveaPVof$100.Intuition:wheninterestincreases,youreceivemoreinterest,butalsodiscountmore.Theeffect

    offsetseachother.

    - Durationoffloatingside:0.

    4. Receivefixed/payfloatingSWAPhasapositiveduration.

    5. Receivefloating/payfixedSWAPhasanegativeduration.6. SWAPcanhedgeinterestrateriskviadurationadjustment,just

    likeanN-yearbond.

    DurationofaSWAP

  • 8/2/2019 Interest Risk Management

    61/61

    61