intergrated models u n c c
DESCRIPTION
presentation by Dr. Steve French, Jan 18 2011TRANSCRIPT
Integrating Urban Models with Infrastructure and Environmental Systems
Steven P. French, Ph.D., FAICPAssociate Dean for Research
Professor of City and Regional PlanningDirector of Center for Geographic Information Systems
College of ArchitectureGeorgia Institute of Technology
Atlanta, GA 30332-0695
Presentation toDepartment of Geography and Earth Sciences
University of North Carolina-CharlotteJanuary 21, 2011
Background
Human population and environmental impact are increasing exponentially
• Steffen, W.; Sanderson, A.; Tyson, P. D., et al. Global Change and the Earth Systems: A Planet Under Pressure; Springer-Verlag: Heidelberg, Germany, 2005
GreatAcceleration:
HumanActivities
• Steffen, W.; Sanderson, A.; Tyson, P. D., et al. Global Change and the Earth Systems: A Planet Under Pressure; Springer-Verlag: Heidelberg, Germany, 2005
Environmentaland
EcologicalConsequence
s
All units are tons per day for a city of 1 million residents. Rectangle size is proportional to the mass. Suspended Solids are in Sewage. (Decker et al.)
Urban Metabolism
Problem
To design the anthrosphere to exist within the means of nature. That is, to use amount of resources that nature provides and generate waste nature can assimilate without overwhelming natural systems.
John Crittenden, 2010
7
• This is the first urban century
• A majority of the world’s population lives in cities
• Human impact on the environment is largely mediated through urban infrastructure systems
• The amount of urban infrastructure worldwide will double in the next 35 years
Urbanization
Premise
Considering infrastructure systems holistically creates a wider and more sustainable set of possible solutions than designing each system separately.
Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station
Atlantic Steel
138 acre steel mill
Founded in late1800s
Closed in 1990s
(Photo Courtesy of EPA)
Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station
1997
Abandoned Brownfield
Adjacent to Midtown Atlanta
No access to surrounding development
Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station
1997
Jacoby proposes redevelopment
Atlanta in nonconformity under Clean Air Act
Moratorium on Federal highway spending
Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station
Comparative Analysis
Analysis of travel demand and air pollution in four locations
Intown location performed best
EPA Project XL to allow
17th Street bridge
Source: Transportation and Environmental Analysis of the Atlantic Steel Development Proposal, EPA (1999) (http://www.epa.gov/projectxl/atlantic/index.htm)
Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station
Today17th Street Bridge built
Mixed Use Development
30,000 employees,10,000 residents
12 acres of public space
Less traffic and air pollution
Cleaned up brownfield site
Improved tax base
Vancouver Stormwater
Vancouver, BC had a combined sewer-stormwater system. Estimated cost to separate - $4B
Rather than separating pipes, the city daylighted the stormwater system and created open space
Open space increased the attractiveness of adjacent properties
Created an increase of $400M income in increased
tax revenue due to increase property values
Biofuels and Green House Gas
Current biofuels policies illustrate how ignoring a systems approach when dealing with complex systems produce unintended consequences-
• Food price spikes• Increased land is converted to agricultural production• Increased fertilizer use• Increase in N2O from fertilizers
N2O is 300 times more potent than CO2
as a GHG and lasts longer
Suboptimal Solutions
It appears that optimizing individual infrastructure systems produces suboptimal solutions at the metropolitan level and above.
Infrastructure systems are currently designed and operated as separate stovepipes.
Solutions typically seek to optimize performance within a single system.
Complex interactions among systems are largely ignored.
Most models do not consider long term sustainability
Current Situation
Metamodel Approach
To develop an integrated suite of models that can estimate the interaction among infrastructure systems and their relationship with the natural environment and social and economic systems.
A Metamodel will be designed to analyze alternative development scenarios at the regional scale, to evaluate infrastructure investments and to analyze proposed development projects.
This Metamodel will enable decision makers to envision and create more sustainable and resilient infrastructure solutions.
• Exogenous social and economic systems determine the amount and type of population and employment.
• The urban growth model estimates the future amount and locations of population, employment, and land uses.
• This produces the demand for services from the infrastructure system models by time and location.
• The infrastructure models estimate the resources required and the waste generated to meet the service demands of the urban area using various technologies.
Metamodel Design
• We believe that the best way to integrate urban infrastructure and environmental models is a loosely coupled set of domain specific models to create an overall systems model
• Must define key model interactions and interdependencies, data exchanges and complex, nonlinear relationships.
• The urban growth model should serve as the driver for the other models
Metamodel Development
Water Supply
Waste Water
Stormwater
Urban Growth
Transpor-tation
Energy
Supply
Infrastructure Systems Models
System
Integration
Framework
Water Supply
Waste Water
Stormwater
Urban Growth
Trans-portation
Energy
Supply
Infrastructure Systems Models
Modeling a System of Systems
Facility Aging
Demographic Changes
Natural Hazards
Fiscal ConstraintsClimate Change
TechnologicalHazards
Natural Environment SystemsAIR | WATER | HABITAT | LAND | MINERAL RESOURCES
Social and Economic Systems INCOME | HEALTH | EQUITY | ETHICS | SOCIAL STRUCTURE | POLICY
System
Integration
Framework
Water Supply
Waste Water
Storm
Water
Urban Growth
Trans-
portation
Energy
Supply
Urban Growth Model
Urban growth model for the 13-county Atlanta metro area (current population ~ 5 million)
Vector GIS-based model that allocates future land use to small areas
Allocates exogenously-determined housing and employment totals based on the suitability
Uniform Analysis Zones
Intersecting all Land Suitability Layers produces UAZs UAZ is the largest polygon that has a constant set of suitability factors
Uniform Analysis Zones
Uniform Analysis Zones
Uniform Analysis Zones
Importance factor X suitability produces a weighted suitability score for each UAZ
Housing and Employment are allocated to UAZs in order of their suitability
Allocation Scheme
Development Suitability Factors
Floodplain
HighwayProximity
Park Land
Freeway Exit Proximity
SewerService
Employment Centers
Employees /Acre
2004
2004
Land Use
2010
2010
2015
20152020
20202025
20252030
2030
Business as Usual Scenario
Employees /Acre
Land Use
2004
20042010
20102015
20152020
20202025
20252030
2030
Steve French
Compact Growth Scenario
Testing additional suitability rankings
Calibrating to past growth and with other forecasts
Including more detailed land use types
Integrating with water and electricity models
Ongoing Model Development
WaterSupply
ElectricPower
Urban Growth
Not only do the infrastructure models interact withurban growth, but they must interact with each other.
System Interactions
Model Inputs and Outputs
Urban Growth Model
InputsEconomic DemandTransport AccessEnvironmental Constraints
OutputsLand UseOpen SpacePopulation Employment by Location
Model Inputs and Outputs
Water Supply Model
InputsSurface/Ground Quantity & QualityPumpingTreatment andDistribution Technologies
OutputsQuantity by Location
Model Inputs and Outputs
Electric Power Model
InputsGenerationTransmissionDistribution Technologies
OutputsPower by Location
38
Model Inputs and Outputs
Electric Power Model
InputsDemandFuelWaterGenerationTransmissionDistribution Technologies
OutputsPower by Location
Water Supply Model
InputsDemandSurface/Ground Quantity & QualityPumpingTreatmentDistribution Technologies
Outputs Water by Location
Urban Growth Model
InputsEconomic DemandTransport AccessLand PriceEnvironmental Constraints
OutputsLand UseOpen SpacePopulation Employment by Location
Conclusions
An integrated model of infrastructure systems can be a powerful tool to explore and develop more sustainable urban areas.
The infrastructure models should be driven by an urban growth model.
An integrated analysis tool should consist of a loosely coupled set of domain specific models linked by well defined input and output requirements.
This understanding is a necessary, but not sufficient basis for more informed decision making and policy choices.
Remaining Challenges
Understanding and modeling complexity and interactions among infrastructure systems
Building models that are useful and meaningful to decision-makers
Resolving differences in geographic resolution and temporal scale among different models
Questions?
High Level Architecture
• The High Level Architecture is an example of an approach for realizing distributed simulations
• HLA Rules define general principles that pervade the entire architecture
• HLA Interface Specification defines a set of run-time services to support distributed simulations
• Data distribution is based on a publication / subscription mechanism
High Level Architecture (HLA)
• based on a composable “system of systems” approach– no single simulation can satisfy all user needs– support interoperability and reuse among DoD simulations
• federations of simulations (federates)– pure software simulations– human-in-the-loop simulations (virtual simulators)– live components (e.g., instrumented weapon systems)
The HLA consists of• Rules that simulations (federates) must follow to achieve proper
interaction during a federation execution• Object Model Template (OMT) defines the format for specifying the set
of common objects used by a federation (federation object model), their attributes, and relationships among them
• Interface Specification (IFSpec) provides interface to the Run-Time Infrastructure (RTI), that ties together federates during model execution
An HLA Federation
PassiveData
ViewersSimulations
Interfacesto Live
Components
Interface Specification
Run-Time Infrastructure (RTI)
Federates
Process for Creating a Federation
ExecuteFederation
andPrepareResults
6
DevelopFederationConceptual
Model
2
DesignFederation
3Develop
Federation
4
DefineFederationObjectives
1
AvailableResources
ProgramObjectives
FederationObjectivesStatement
Federation Requirements
FederationConceptualModel
FederationScenario
Initial PlanningDocuments
Allocated Federates
FederationDevelopmentPlan
FOM
FED file
Modified Federates
Scenario Instance
RTI RID File
TestedFederation
TestingData
Test EvaluationCriteria
Reusable Products
UserFeedback
IntegrateandTest
Federation
5
DefineFederationObjectives
DevelopFederationConceptual
Model
DesignFederation
Develop
Federation
IdentifyNeeds
DevelopObjectives
DevelopScenario
PerformConceptual
Analysis
DevelopFederation
Requirements
SelectFederates
AllocateFunctionality
DevelopFOM
EstablishFederation
ImplementFederation
ExecuteFederation
And AnalyzeResults
ExecuteFederation
ProcessOutput
PrepareResults
PlanExecution
IntegrateFederation
TestFederation
IntegrateAndTest
Federation
PreparePlan
Agreements
Modifications
Urban Growth – UrbanSim, PECAS, What-If?
Transportation – TRANSIMS, TranPlan, CUBE
Water/Stormwater – SWWM, BASINS, HEC-RAS, WASP
Energy – NEMS, MARKAL
Air Quality – CMAQ, CALINE3, UAM-V
Existing Models
Metamodel Steps
• Predict the demand and location for urban infrastructure for development and redevelopment, including the resulting economic flows and socioeconomic drivers based on emergent properties
• Determine the infrastructure system options (e.g., community design, net zero buildings, construction methods, material choices) available to meet this demand and (re)design the virtual city
• Choose a transportation options (e.g., walking, biking, automobiles, public transportation, automobiles) and simulate traffic flows and travel times using micro-simulation models (e.g., TranSims)
• Determine the materials and energy needed to construct and maintain the urban infrastructure
• Assess the infrastructure’s vulnerability to natural hazards (e.g., floods, earthquakes, hurricanes) and manmade challenges (e.g., resource constraints or supply chain disruptions)
• Determine the local, regional, and global impacts (e.g., carbon footprint) of various scenarios using life cycle impact assessment
• Predict heat island effects using microclimate models and determine increases to water and energy demands
• Visualize various sustainability and resiliency metrics (e.g., carbon footprint; water, material, and energy demands; and social and economic impacts)