interim management statement and british energy investment
TRANSCRIPT
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Interim Management Statementand British Energy Investmentand British Energy InvestmentMay 2009
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DisclaimerDisclaimerThis presentation does not constitute an invitation to underwrite,subscribe for, or otherwise acquire or dispose of any Centricashares or other securities.
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements withrespect to the financial condition, results, operations andbusinesses of Centrica plc. These statements and forecasts involverisk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on
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y y pcircumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number offactors that could cause actual results or developments to differmaterially from those expressed or implied by these forward-lookingstatements and forecasts.
Past performance is no guide to future performance and personsneeding advice should consult an independent financial adviser.
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Interim Management StatementInterim Management Statement• Good start to the year for British Gas
• UK upstream impacted by low wholesale gas price and narrow spark spreads
• Strong performance in Centrica Storage
• North America performing well in challenging
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North America performing well in challenging conditions, helped by currency benefit
• Exit from SPE as part of British Energy deal
• Existing Group earnings ahead of 2008 and in line with expectations
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Investment in British EnergyInvestment in British Energy
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Why vertical integration?Why vertical integration?• Reduces exposure to volatile wholesale commodity prices
• Delivers more robust Group earnings through cycle
• Reduces requirement for capital for procurement support
Why nuclear?Why nuclear?
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• Source of power for British Gas customers which is:− low carbon− long-life− low cash cost
• Cost of producing power not exposed to wholesale gas price
• Participation in new nuclear programme provides long term hedge and growth opportunity
yy
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Proposed TransactionProposed Transaction
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Deal termsDeal terms
Net cash consideration of £1.1bn• 20% equity stake in British Energy
• Average price per share 710p cash plus 0.242 CVRs− cash consideration of £2.3bn
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• Partly financed through sale of SPE for €1.325bn
• 20% stake in new nuclear build
• Power offtake− 20% of available power, plus
− additional firm 18TWh 2011-16
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Drivers of valueDrivers of value
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Wholesale power prices have fallenWholesale power prices have fallen
70
80
90
e (£
/MW
h)
9
30
40
50
60
May-2009 May-2010 May-2011 May-2012 May-2013
UK
Pow
er P
rice
Sep 2008 May 2009
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British Energy output has increasedBritish Energy output has increasedpa
city
(MW
)
6,000
7,000
8,000
10
Mon
thly
ave
rage
cap
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Sept '08 Oct '08 Nov '08 Dec '08 Jan '09 Feb '09 Mar '09 April '09
Source: Exelon “Balancing Mechanism Reporting System (BMRS)"
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Governance PackageGovernance Package
• Joint venture is a long term partnership
• Centrica is a 20% investor in Lake Acquisitions − EDF has day-to-day operational control
• Centrica rightsBoard representation on both Lake Acquisitions and
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− Board representation on both Lake Acquisitions and British Energy Group
− full information rights− minority protections
• 100% dividend policy
• Centrica will benefit from synergies EDF extracts from British Energy
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Nuclear new build opportunityNuclear new build opportunity
• Centrica has the right to participate in EDF’s new nuclear build programme in the UK− final investment decision on 1st reactor in 2011
• British Energy sites best positioned for building new nuclear reactors
disposal of certain sites as agreed with EC
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− disposal of certain sites as agreed with EC− recent NDA auction showed strong value of sites
• EDF intends initially to build four EPRs (6.4GW)− 2 reactors at each of Sizewell and Hinkley Point − first commissioning targeted for end 2017
• New build will make a long term contribution to the structural hedge and deliver lower cost electricity
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SPE saleSPE sale
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Disposal of SPEDisposal of SPE
• Landscape for energy retailing in Europe remains difficult
• Short term profit outlook reduced by lower commodity prices
• Attractive sale price
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• Remaining European positions are under strategic review
• Will retain a presence in Europe− infrastructure for delivery of gas remains important to
Centrica’s business− continued need for midstream market intelligence
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Impact of the TransactionImpact of the Transaction
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Substantially increases the upstream hedgeSubstantially increases the upstream hedge
Energy hedge ratio (%)
30
40
50
Drax contract
Power cover ratio (%)
80
100
BGY
Drax contract
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Energy hedge ratio: Proportion of UK floating gas demand covered by own production. Floating gas demand includes non-fixed price BGR and BGB demand, I&C gas demand, power station fuel requirements and equivalent gas requirements to meet floating power demand in BGR and BGB.
2009 British Energy output shown as full year proforma position
10
20
30 BGY
Wind
North Sea
Morecambe0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
20
40
60
2009
Wind &renewables
Gas
2013
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Earnings impact Earnings impact • Key variables – output, power prices, operating costs, synergies
• Forward power sales: 2010: 46TWh, 2011: 28TWh, 2012: 14TWh
• Based on prices achieved plus current forward curve for remaining output, acquisition (net of SPE sale) expected to be broadly neutral from 2010 (before the impact of fair value adjustments)
• Power price sensitivity: ± £5/MWh => 2010/11 ± 1% on EPS
O i i i 5TWh 2010/11 2 5% EPS
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• Output sensitivity: ± 5TWh => 2010/11 ± 2.5% on EPS
• Fair value adjustments− mark to market of forward sales – negative in 2009, small positive
in 2010 and 2011− additional depreciation – estimated earnings impact £80-100m pa
• Assumes net cash cost funded by equity – remaining Rights Issue proceeds applied to other investments; from current position, post Rights Issue, funding cost is minimal given low interest rate being received on cash on deposit
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2010 / 2011 earnings impact2010 / 2011 earnings impact
Starting from preRights Issue
Before Fair Valueaccounting
Starting from postRights Issue
neutral accretive
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accounting
After Fair Valueaccounting
eu a
dilutive
acc e e
neutral
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Group structure going forward Group structure going forward
• Reduced Group earnings volatility
• More balanced portfolio of upstream and downstream positions
• Business concentrated in UK and North America
• Investment opportunities
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− Nuclear new build− North Sea gas− UK gas storage− UK wind− North America – strengthen downstream positions, upstream
integration
• Strong balance sheet will be maintained
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TimetableTimetable
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Timetable for completion of transactionTimetable for completion of transaction
• Sign and announce transactions
• Commence regulatory processes− British Energy acquisition subject
to UK competition approval− SPE sale requires EC approval
11 May
mid May
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q pp
• Post Circular to shareholders
• General Meeting
• Estimated closing− closing of the two deals is
interconditional
mid May
June
Q3
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SummarySummary
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SummarySummary
• Significant reduction in scale of net transaction
• Improved terms reflect commodity price environment
• Joint venture delivers value for Centrica shareholders
• Positions Centrica strongly
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− improves business risk profile − reduces earnings volatility− enhances long term value growth
• Strong funding position integral to Group going forward− wide range of investment opportunities