interim results interim results for the six months ended 31 march 2010. introduction tough trading...
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Interim resultsfor the six months ended 31 March 2010
Introduction
Tough trading conditions but improving operational performance
External environment
• Subdued economic conditions and lower consumer spending
• Unemployment claims lower, but remaining high
• Competitive trading conditions
• Tentative signs of gradual recovery
Operations
• A slow start to the first half, but performance beginning to turn
• Substantial improvement in funding base, funding costs and maturity profile
• Positive effect of African Bank credit model in Ellerines stores
• Ellerines Retail restructuring starting to deliver results
• Credit risk performance substantially improved
Financial features
6 months to 31 March 20106 months to
31 March 2009
% ch ABIL African Bank Ellerines ABIL
Headline earnings (Rm) (2%) 914 713 201 937
HEPS (cents) (2%) 113,7 116,6
Weighted # of shares (m) 803,7 803,7
Return on equity (%) 15,3 44,2 10,1 15,8
Economic profit / (loss) (Rm) (41) 455 (119) (11)
Dividends per share (cents) 85 85
• Headline earnings of R914m and HEPS of 113.7 cents, down 2%
• African Bank contributed R713 million and Ellerines R201 million
• RoE and economic profit continue to be diluted by investment in Ellerines
• Ordinary DPS maintained at 85 cents, dividend cover steady at 1,3 times
Overview of the African Bank
Financial overview
R million % ch6 months to
31 Mar 2010
6 months to
31 Mar 2009
Headline earnings (5%) 713 747
Economic profit (15%) 455 537
Return on equity (%) 44,2 56,8
Income from operations 11% 3 808 3 431
Gross advances 19% 21 977 18 528
Funding (incl. subordinated bonds) 52% 22 525 14 853
Capital adequacy (per Basel II) (%) 24,6 26,7
Financial overview
Growth in income offset by higher charges
• Income from operations increased by 11%
18% increase in net advances
310 basis point decline in income yields
• Charge for bad debts increased by 25%, resulting in a 6% increase in risk adjusted income.
• Operating expenses increased by 10%, with staff costs up by a similar amount.
• Net funding costs increased by 24%
52% increase in the funding base
Average funding rates declined from 11.4% to 10.5%
• Net result is a 7% decline in income before tax, and a 5% decline in headline earnings
Return on equity
%6 months to
31 Mar 2010
6 months to
31 Mar 2009
Total income yield 36,0% 39,1%
Charge for credit losses (10,7%) (10,4%)
Operating expenses (7,0%) (7,7%)
Net finance costs (incl pref div) (8,2%) (8,1%)
Taxation & other (3,4%) (4,4%)
Total charges (29,3%) (30,6%)
Return on advances 6,7% 8,5%
Advances/assets 85,7% 97,9%
Return on assets 5,8% 8,3%
Multiply Multiply
Gearing (x) 7,7 6,8
Equals Equals
Return on equity 44,2% 56,8%
Sales
Conservative underwriting led to flat sales
• A substantial shift to lower risk client segments
• Improved segmentation models and higher offer rates impacted positively from Q2
• Emphasis on growth and focus on enlarged customer base
• Re-energised sales teams, new products and improved risk appetite starting to lift sales
200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
1 000 1 100 1 200
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
R m
illio
n
Sales of new loans
2009 2010 ytd
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2
Debit Order Capital Risk Distribution
1Low 2LowMed 3Med 4MedHigh 5High 6Thin
Advances
Gross advances increased by 19% to R22 billion
• Mix effect of 7% higher number of loans and 11% increase in average loan balance
• Number of customers up 10% to 1,9 million
• Increase in average term based on new segmentation models and focus on low risk segments
• Credit card portfolio grew 51% to R2,3 billion
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep-
07
Nov
-07
Jan-
08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8
Sep-
08
Nov
-08
Jan-
09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9
Sep-
09
Nov
-09
Jan-
10
Mar
-10
Mon
ths
R bi
llion
Monthly advances growth
Advances Average term of new sales
Yield analysis
Income yield of 36,0%, relative to 39,1% in H1 2009
• Proportionally higher NPL’s (33,6% vs. 26,9%) resulted in increased interest suspension and in duplum impact
• Sales mix favoured lower risk, lower priced loans
• Claims on insurance policies remained higher than historical levels
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
2007
10
2007
12
2008
02
2008
04
2008
06
2008
08
2008
10
2008
12
2009
02
2009
04
2009
06
2009
08
2009
10
2009
12
2010
02
Monthly retrenchment claim volumes
54.8
52.9
49.8
48.7
43.8
41.8
39.1
37.2
36.0
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
H1
06
H2
06
H1
07
H2
07
H1
08
H2
08
H1
09
H2
09
H1
10
R m
illio
n
%Income and yield
Total income Total income yield
Operating costs
Overall cost base increased by 10%, cost to advances declined to 7%• Staff costs increased by 10%, given salary increases and medical aid subsidies
• Bank charges declined by 2%, despite growth in advances
• Card transaction costs increased by 25% after 51% growth in credit card advances book
15.1% 15.4%14.7%
11.8%
9.0%
7.2% 7.0%
7.7% 7.9%8.5% 8.9%
10.1%10.4% 10.7%
5%
10%
15%
20%
04 05 06 07 08 09 H1 10
% o
f ave
adv
ance
s
Bad debts vs. operating costs
Cost to advances Bad debt to advances
Multitude of initiatives being implemented to reduce costs
Asset quality
Higher sales in 2008 still a major contributor to new NPLs• Risk mix and new risk segmentation improved vintages
• Recent vintages act as leading indicator while bad debt charge impacted by older vintages
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Months on book
Dent curves - Total portfolio (% of qtrly sales moving to NPL status, overlaid with actual NPL formation)
2008 - Q3 2008 - Q4 2009 - Q1 2009 - Q2 2009 - Q3 2009 - Q4
R70m
R60m
R45mR45m
Funding and liquidity
• Healthy funding and liquidity position
• Total bank funding liabilities increased by 52% to R22,5bn
• Funding rate reduced from 11,7% to 10,5%, despite lengthened maturity profile
• Total bank cash reserves increased to R6,5 billion to: Fund growth in advances book Prepare for transfer of the Ellerines book
14.9
22.5
2.4
6.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
H1 2009 H1 2010
R bi
llion
Funding and liquidity
Total funding Cash & stat. assets
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
04-S
ep
05-M
ar
05-S
ep
06-M
ar
06-S
ep
07-M
ar
07-S
ep
08-M
ar
08-S
ep
09-M
ar
09-S
ep
10-M
ar
Cost of funding
2010 targets
ObjectiveActual 6 months to 31 Mar 2010
Original target for 2010
Revised target for 2010
Advances growth 19% 25% 20% - 25%
Decline in yield on advances 3,1% 2% 3,0% - 3,5%
Cost to advances 7,0% 6% 6,0% - 6,5%
Bad debt to advances 10,7% 10% 10,5% - 11,0%
Average funding cost 10,5% 11% 10,0% - 10,5%
• Advances growth to benefit from customer growth, product innovation and sales strategies
• Relatively stable income yields
• Improvement in asset quality and collections
• Lower growth in operating expenses and lower absolute funding rates
• More efficient use of cash resources
The targets above are ABIL’s internal objectives and are not forecasts for the financial year. Actual results may differ from these objectives.
6 months to 6 months to
R million 31 Mar 2010 31 Mar 2009
Headline earnings 201 190
Retail 132 (31)
Financial services 69 221
Economic loss (119) (170)
Return on equity (excluding goodwill) (%) 10,1 8,4
Financial overview
Turnaround in Ellerines has begun• Improved sales performance, with like-for-like sales up 6,5%
• Yield declined from 50,0% to 39,4% as a result of price reductions, interest suspension and in duplum impact
• Bad debt charge declined by 24%
• Retail business benefitted from sharp decline in operating expenses
Return on sales
6 months to
31 Mar 2010
%
6 months to
31 Mar 2009
%
Sales/sales 100 100
Cost of sales/sales (56,8) (56,3)
Gross margin 43,2 43,7
Non-interest income/sales 6,6 7,2
Operating cost / sales (43,0) (51,8)
Operating margin 6,9 (0,9)
Financing costs/sales (0,6) (1,0)
Taxation/sales (0,7) 0,5
Return on sales (RoS) 5,6 (1,3)
• Sales increased by 2% (l-f-l sales increased by 6,5%)
• Greater operational efficiency reduced Retail operating expenses by R184 million
Retail division generated earnings of R132 million for the 6 months
Retail sales
Substantial benefits from new merchandise and African Bank credit platform
• Cash sales declined by 8%, credit sales increased by 10%
• Differentiated and innovative product ranges received wider approval
• Benefit from cheaper credit, higher approval rates and larger credit limits
3%
18%
-1%
22% 21%
-17%
6%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Elle
rine
s
Bear
es
Furn
iture
City
Gee
n &
Ric
hard
s
Dia
l-a-B
ed
Wet
herl
ys
Tota
l
Comparable sales growth
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Year-on-year sales variance
Sales Credit sales Comparable sales
Gross margin and operating costs
• Gross margins of 43,2% on back of improved merchandise mix
• Operating costs declined by 10%
Lower collections costs, bank charges, IT and telecommunication costs, consulting fees
Lower staff complement and benefits of brand consolidation and new marketing strategies
Property expenses lower despite annual escalations
Operating costs - Retail and Financial services
(R million)% ch
6 months to
31 Mar 2010
6 months to
31 Mar 2009
Staff costs (4) 710 736
Administration expenses (34) 228 348
Property and lease expenses (1) 305 309
Delivery and logistics costs (9) 94 103
Depreciation and amortisation of intangibles 9 98 90
Advertising and marketing costs (21) 72 91
Total (10) 1 507 1 677
• Further cost savings to be generated by restructuring of logistics and African Bank interface
Store productivity
Efficiency improvements continued in the retail business
-16.2% -0.8%
3.4%
17.9% 17.2%
23.4%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Sep 09
Oct 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Jan 10
Feb 10
Mar 10
Productivity variances
% Change in 3 month rolling sales per employee (quarterly)% Change in 12 month rolling sales per employee% Change in 12 month rolling sales per m²
% Change in 12 month rolling sales per store
Return on equity
%6 months to 31 Mar 2010
6 months to 31 Mar 2009
Total income yield 39,4% 50,0%
Charge for credit losses (12,7%) (16,5%)
Operating expenses (18,7%) (18,1%)
Net financing costs (3,6%) (2,4%)
Taxation (1,8%) (4,9%)
Total charges (36,8%) (41,8%)
Return on advances 2,6% 8,2%
Advances/ assets 111,3% 127,6%
Return on assets 2,9% 10,5%
Multiply Multiply
Gearing (times) 1,9 1,4
Equals Equals
Return on equity 5,5% 14,4%
Decline in ROA Reduction in total charges not sufficient to offset lower income yields, as interest suspension and price reductions fed through.
Sales of new loans
• New credit deals of R1,4bn advanced, up 10%
• Average loan size grew by 28% to R6 951
• Average term increased to 28 months
Approval rates and credit sales mix considerably improved across all brands
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
Ellerines Beares Furniture City Geen & Richards
R '0
00
Average size of credit deals advanced
2008 2009 H1 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ellerines Beares Furniture City Geen & Richards
Credit sales mix %
H1 2009 H1 2010
Advances and yield
• Gross advances increased by 6% to R5,5 billion
• Yield decreased
Pre acquisition legacy impact of
Increased proportion of advances on which interest is suspended
Increased proportion of advances on which in duplum applies
Price reductions in 2009
53.550.7 50.0
41.439.4
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
H1 08 H2 08 H1 09 H2 09 H1 10
% Total income yield
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Ellerines Beares Furniture City Geen & Richards
Advances (Rand million)
H1 2009 H1 2010
Asset quality
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Out
stan
ding
repa
yabl
e of
NPL
ove
r tot
al o
rigi
nal r
epay
able
Months on book
Vintage graph - Ellerines (more than 3 cumulative missed instalments)
Pre acquisition 200803 - 200807 200808200809 200810 200811 200812 200901200902 200903 200904 200905 200906200907 200908 200909 200910 200911
Medium term targets
Objective6 months to 31 Mar
2010Original targets Medium term
Revised targets
2014
Retail
Sales R2,3 bn (6 mths) R9 bn – R10 bn pa R8 bn – R9 bn pa
Credit sales to total sales 59% 70% 70%
Operating cost to sales 43% 30% - 35% 35% - 40%
Return on sales 5,6% > 10% > 10%
Stock turn 3,0x 5,0x 5,0x
Financial services
Yield 39,4% < 40% < 40%
Cost to average advances 18,7% 7,5% 7,5%
Bad debts to average advances 12,7% 11,0% 11,0%
Continuing improvement in financial performance expected in 2010, based on:
• Modest improvement in sales performance
• Margin delivery, further reduction in costs, stabilising yield
• Benefits from completion of integration project
Looking ahead
A progressively more integrated agenda
Ellerines Financial Services integration
• Migration to African Bank credit on track, majority of stores converted, with positive impact on sales and risk
• Integration to be completed by September 2010
• Existing Ellerines book to be converted in phases before financial year-end
Revitalising Retail
• Brand consolidation and store and head count optimisation yielding planned efficiency improvements
• Implementation of supply chain strategy according to plan
• Good progress on new merchandising strategies
• Substantial strengthening of retail skills
Growing the customer base
• Multitude of new credit products piloted/launched in both African Bank and Ellerines
• Credit card offering to Ellerines customer base imminent
• Focus now on maximising opportunities from acquisition
• Reinvigorated emphasis on removing internal impediments to growth in African Bank
Looking ahead
Trading environment expected to remain subdued.
Key priorities for the remainder of the year:
• African Bank:
Renewed emphasis on growth
Focus on our people and customers
Evolving culture to drive growth
• Ellerines:
Financial services integration
Logistics project
Wetherlys’ performance
Supply chain