international collaborative research for innovative ... · 2015/7/30 1 1 international...

2015/7/30

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International Collaborative Research for Innovative Modelling and Monitoring

for Low Carbon Society and Eco-Citiesin Indonesia

Professor FUJITA, Tsuyoshi, [email protected]

Director of Social Research Center

Associate Professor FUJII, Minoru

National Institute for Environmental Studies, JAPAN

ISAP(International Forum for Sustainable Asia and the Pacific) 2015

Smart Recycle Center

Renewableenergy

Smart Symbiosis Initiatives for Eco City Innovation Initiatives

methaneincineration

発電・熱量

Energy demand information

substitutive

Operation information

Energy and consumption demand control system

for urban sectors

Demand

Smart industrial complex supported by synergetic information network

among industries

Urban and Regional symbiosis

Waste and material Energy

Local symbiosis

Smart community

Local energy supply and demand

Smart ICT network will promote and complement synergetic network functions among stakeholders

Information support for optimizing local and regional material and energy circularization

Power plant

Steel

Cement

Chemical

Climate information

発電量予測

By‐product information

Energy demand response

Local Data Collection Center

Urban Waste

High value

Smart industrial complex

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1. Innovative monitoring and regional evaluation system research

2. Integrative modelling research for low carbon society

3. Urban and regional eco‐city design model and simulation research

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Under Indonesia‐Japan comprehensive collaboration,

Innovative social monitoring system will be developed

smart monitoring system for eco‐city districts and

eco‐ industrial parks

Academic and policy outcome for integrative research challenges will be identified

‐ strategic technology assessment

‐ coordination for sustainable low carbon society strategy planning

‐ innovative monitoring system for the systematic project design

and carbon credit certification

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FUJITSU CONFIDENTIAL 5

DistributionPanel

IPB Darmaga CampusMain Administration Office

IPB Baranangsian CampusCCROM Office

DistributionPanel

IPB Convention Hotel

DistributionPanel

Café Taman Koleksi IPB

DistributionPanel

Residential Unit

DistributionPanel

Bogor City

Bogor City Measurement Point

Possibility of implementing low carbon lifestyle

Actual Data at CCROM Officeat February 6 Friday

Case 1 If new Japanese electric appliances were implemented (Assume),

Case 2If more active lifestyle was implemented (Assume),

LEDAirConditioning

Replacement with ceiling fan

Server

Cut peak power usage by 20%

Cut peak power usage by 13%

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Data utilization for action: Touch Point

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Eco Guide, Applying Japanese Eco Products, Lifestyle Innovation, Evaluate Production Process etc.

Eco Campus /Eco‐Friendly Model City

Expanding the Areas from Point to Area

Bogor City’s future

Commercial Residential Indutrial Commercial Area Residential Area Industrial Area

Low Carbon Energy Supply and Demand in Bogor City’s Area

Visualizing Energy TrendIn Bogor City’s Facility

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Assessment of mitigation technologies and financial policies for low carbon development

‐ Particularly focusing in the fields of agriculture,

forestry, and land use sectors in Indonesia

‐ Scenario development of Indonesia using ExSS and

AFOLU

‐ Policy assessment based on AIM/Enduse model and

AIM/CGE model

‐Mitigation actions in Indonesia (RAN‐GRK), and their

economic impacts


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Data, Model, Scenarios and Policies

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Data• Demography and Economy • Transport and Land‐use • Agriculture and Forestry• Waste management• Energy demand and supply

Scenario input• Future population growth• Projections and goals of economy• Transport and land‐use plans• Agriculture policies• Current environmental initiative of the

(local) government• Energy technologies suitable to local

conditions• GHG reduction goals

Models• Localization of the models

Quantitative LCS scenarios

• Socio‐economic development• Expected low‐carbon

options/technologies• Co‐benefits

Actions and candidates of Policy Programs toward Low‐carbon development

The models project quantitative and consistent visions in the future society, with input of historical data, intended future goals in the region of the government, and technology information. With the result, the Actions can be established for the regions.

Data Information in Bogor

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750000

800000

850000

900000

950000

1000000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

‐

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

cassava

Sweet potato

Peanut

Mungbean

Maize

Paddy

Crop production

Population

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Trillion Rp.

Other Services

Finance, Real estate & Business Services

Transport & Communication

Trade, Hotel & Restaurant

Electricity, Gas and Water Supply

Construction

Manufacturing Industry

Mining and Quarrying

Agriculture

GDP by Industries (Current price)

• Most of the essential data was already obtained,except for energy demand.

• Some of the data has seemingly unrealistic jump. Further investigation is thus necessary.

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GHG emissions by sectors and contribution by LC measures

• Result of the sample scenario shows GHG emissions in Bogor City will be 2.3 times greater in 2030 BaU compared to 2013 level.

• The examples of low‐carbon measures can reduce the emission by 25% in LCS scenario.

• The model can also shows contribution of the low‐carbon measures in different sectors.

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2013 2030BaU

2030LCS

Waste

Land‐use change

Agriculture

EN Transport

EN Industry

EN Commercial

EN Residential

Monitoring24%

EE device29%

Modal shift21%

Biofuel 14%

Recycling12%

x 2.3

25% reductions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1995年

2000年

2005年

2010年

2015年

2020年

2025年

2030年

2035年

2040年

2045年

2050年

CO

2Em

ission[kt‐CO

2]

Energy Consumption［TJ

］太陽熱

地域熱（発電所排熱）

地域熱（熱電併給）

地産電力（熱電併給）

地産電力（太陽光）

系統電力

バイオマス

都市ガス

LPガス

石油

石炭

CO2

Solar HeatDistrict HeatingCogenerationRegional PowerSolar PowerPower LinkBiomassTown GasGas Cylinder(LP)PetroleumCoalCO2

Macro Scope Technology Assessment for Local Government

Assessment for Suitable Technology Assessment for the Low Carbon Future (80% Reduction in 2050 from 1990) in Shinchi Town of Fukushima

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Planning System for Fukushima Recovery System through Eco‐innovationFukushima Shinchi

Township National Institute for Env. Studies

Simulation for recovery roadmap

復興まちづくりのシミュレーション

Simulation for recovery roadmap

復興まちづくりのシミュレーション

Planning for Sustainable Future

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Energy Assist

Community Information Assist

Life Assist

Community Assist Tablet Network

LocalNeedsLocalNeeds

RegionalEnvironmentInformation

RegionalEnvironmentInformation

Urban SpatialAnalysisLocal

environment diagnosis

Integrated Modelling

Future scenarioassessment

Tech. and policy inventory

-low carbon tech-circulation tech-industrial symbiosis-policy / regulation-land use control

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3. Urban and regional eco city design model and simulation research

Development of regional scale integrated assessment model for designing low carbon society in Indonesia

‐ energy sectors and non‐energy sectors such as

forest management and material recycling system

By establishing environmental database consisting of urban scale statistical data; monitoring network data as well as spatial GIS and satellite information, strategic district design and urban design will be identified for low carbon society and eco cities.(TBR)

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Low Carbon District Design Models

Spatial Policy/ Tech. Process Packages

Development of Regional Integrated Models (Regional AIM) andSpatial Planning Model to design sustainable regions and cities

Design of Vision and Road Map for National Scale

Low Carbon Industrial System

Local Heat/Energy Management

National End Use Model

*CGE model National Targets

Analysis for Province Scale

EndUse

Model

Fukushima

CGEModel

Fukushima

TargetsLow Carbon Urban Design Model

Planning for Local ScaleKabupaten Cota

Kecamatan Kelurahan

Snap Shot

Models

Policy Support Tools

Local Targets

Strategic Spatial Zoning System

Social Monitoring System & Project Data Buildings Industries Life Style

Regional Parame‐ters

*Computational General Equilibrium

Integrated Model (AIM)

Fukushima

R. Maps

National Road Maps

Forestry Eco System Service Model

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Multi Stage Approach for Eco‐City and EIP Planning

③Project Design

②Spatial‐scope

Land use zoning /network design

・ land use distribution patterns

・ local energy network・location of core developments

①Macro‐scope・ population, industries

・ core developments

・ energy locality

Alternative future vision

▪ zoning and regulation

▪ district planning

▪ key industries

Core projects for revitalization

( )

なりゆきシナリオ

LNG立地シナリオ

産業振興シナリオ

環境産業共生シナリオ

Feasibility Study

Future frame

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LNG Power Plant

LNG base

Soma city

Newly located

industries

Plant factories

Mega solar

Energy management

BaU scenario for Fukushima in 2030

Komagamine

To Natori

New town

around Station

Electricity

HeatCoolGas(LNG)

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ｘ

Food industries

Data center

LNG Power Plant

LNG base

Soma city

Newly located

industries

Newly located industries

Plant factories

To Natori

Energy management

Electricity

HeatCoolGas(LNG)

Proposal of Smart Energy System for Fukushima in 2030

Komagamine

Mega solar

Plant factories

New town

around Station

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0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Estimation of Alternative Future Recovery Scenarios

Urban

Industry

野菜工場

[Mt‐CO2/年

]

50%

減

Quantification of Impacts and Costs

Effects of Lo

cal Energy

Managem

ent

Alternative Spatial Scenario

Estimation of CO2 Emission

Urban Agri‐cuilt.

+Green

Growth

BA

U+C

ompact C

ity

Green growth can double the Carbon Efficiency

Industry

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Innovative Monitoring and Reporting, Verification System in Asian Countries

Heat supply facility

Thermal power plantLNG terminal

Factories

Solar thermal

CO2 and heat

Plant factory

Service performance

GPS

①District energy behavior support network project

②Aging community living support network project

Housing reconstruction, etc.

information of power saving

Data accumulation

Energy plan to utilize local industry stock being deployed

in the future

Public transportation system operation plan responding to the super-aging society

Two way information network using the internet

The actual situation of the

use

・Energy consumption monitoring system・Two way communication tablet・Installation in 50 to 100 homes


Public facility

Energy consumption data


School

Production of

electricity from solar

panel

You are the ○ in the district in the power saving

rankings

We accomplished energy conservation equivalent

to CO2 ○ amount.

Let's tell friends how to do this.

We

conserved a

lot of power

today.

Mass transit system

Solar panels of the existing

③Local transportation behavior support network project

Utilize basic information for creating the future town

Information of welfare

Let's go to the library since I have 5 fellows waiting to play Go.

④Smart hybrid center project

Greenhouse gas Observing SATellite

GOSATGround Monitoring System of GHG

Smart Monitoring Network System for Eco Cities

International Financial System for Low Carbon City Development

Joint carbon Credit Mechanism Projects

Validation

Verification

Eco-city Evaluation and Validation26

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Research Project of Local CO2 Future Tech-A; 2014-

- Integrative Assessment

to identify technology effects with policy system implementation focusing

CO2 and other socio-environmental effects

- Inter-temporal Assessment

to identify the suitability of technology and policy packages based on the

future targets and present situations

- Inter-Scale Assessmentto identify the suitability of technology and policy packages based on the

future targets and present situations

- Interactive Assessmentto apply methodology and tools into local planning and decision making

process for Fukushima Restoration plans after radio-active pollution

removal

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List or related publications

• Yong Geng, Fujita Tsuyoshi, Xudong Chen; Evaluation of Innovative Municipal Solid Waste Management through Urban Symbiosis: A Case Study of Kawasaki, Environmental Sci and Tech., 2009 (revised)

• Rene Van Berkel, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Shizuka Hashimoto, Minoru Fujii；Quantitative Assessment of Urban and Industrial Symbiosis in Kawasaki, Japan, Environmental Science & Technology , Vol.43, No.5, 2009 ,pp.1271-1281,0129.2009

• Rene van Berkel, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Shizuka Hashimoto, Yong Geng；Industrial and Urban Symbiosis in Japan : Analysis of the Eco-Town Program 1997-2006；Journal of Environmental Management, vol.90,pp.1544-1556,2009

• Shizuka Hashimoto, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Yong Geng, Emiri Nagasawa； Achieving CO2 Emission Reduction through Industrial Symbiosis: A Case of Kawasaki , Journal of Environmental Management, 2008 (submitted)

• Yong Geng，Qinghua Zhu, Brent Doberstein，Tsuyoshi Fujita； Implementing China’s Circular Economy Concept at the Regional Level: a review of progress in Dalian, China, Journal of Waste Management, vol.29,pp996-1002,2009

• Yong Geng, Rene Van Berkel , Tsuyoshi Fujita ；Regional Initiatives on Promoting Cleaner Production in China: A Case of Liaoning, Journal of Cleaner Production, 2008 (submitted)

• Zhu Qinghua, Yong Geng, Tsuyoshi Fujita , Shizuka Hashimoto ；Green supply chain management in leading manufacturers: Case studies in Japanese large companies, International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 2008 (submitted)

• Yong Geng, Pang Zhang, Raymond P. Cote, Tsuyoshi Fujita；Assessment of the National Eco-industrial Park Standards for Promoting Industrial Symbiosis in China, J. of Industrial Ecology, Vol.13, No.1, pp.15-26, 2008

• Looi-Fang Wong, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Kaiquin Xu； Evaluation of regional bio-energy recovery by local methane fermentation thermal recycling systems, Journal of Waste Management,vol.28, pp.2259-2270, 2008

Thank you for your Attention

international collaborative research for innovative ... · 2015/7/30 1 1 international...

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