International Conference onOpportunities and Challengesfor Water Cooled Reactors in

the 21st CenturyRisk Concept in Nuclear

Industry (Overview)

Réka FótosAdvisors: László Tóth, Péter Trampus

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

BAYZOLTÁN Foundation for Applied Research

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

Outline

Role of risk concept; Importance of risk concept; Risk-based / Risk-informed; Benefits of Risk-informed concept; Main steps of Risk-Informed concept; Risk-Informed concept in nuclear industry; Future plans; Conclusion.

BAYZOLTÁN Foundation for Applied Research

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

Role of risk concept: Engineers vs. Economists

•Privatization → profit came into the limelight↓

reduced inspection efforts↓

boundless consequences↓

Engineers <==>Economists•Risk-informed concept = communication interface

↓

Engineers Economists

BAYZOLTÁN Foundation for Applied Research

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

Risk-informed / Risk-based

Risk-based

Absolute risk

values

Deterministic

Worst-case

scenario

Risk-informed-Risk insights;

-Deterministic information;

-Certificated basis data;

-Historical data;

-Operational experience.

BAYZOLTÁN Foundation for Applied Research

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

Tendency of risk concept in industry

217

1250

922 9381050

1160

15101650

2150

2650

366

756

1810

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1980 1990 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

É

Results for Risk-based expression

39

58,2

96,5

135 135143

127138133

107

129130130

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980 1990 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

É

Year

Year

Results for Risk-informed expression

BAYZOLTÁN Foundation for Applied Research

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

Benefits of Risk-informed concept

BENEFITS

Well structured database

Risk rankingHealthier environment

Eliminating unnecessary

costs

Optimization of inspection

effortsEffective

inspection activities

BAYZOLTÁN Foundation for Applied Research

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

Further outcomes of risk concept

Increasing of performance; Effective operation of aging plants and equipment; More safety work circumstances for workers; Optimal exploiting of resources; Competitiveness; Decreasing of outage time; Meeting the strict safety and environmental

requirements; Maintaining the safety and reliable operation; Increasing of operating time.

BAYZOLTÁN Foundation for Applied Research

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

Main principle of the concept

The application of risk analysis principles to manageinspection programs.

Risk = Probability x Consequence

Probability of Failure Consequence of Failure

In terms of money

BAYZOLTÁN Foundation for Applied Research

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

Main steps of Risk-Informed concept

Definition of scope

System division

Risk ranking

Consequence analysis

Failure analysis

Safety-related classification

Performance analysis

Inspection planning

Feedback and

updating

BAYZOLTÁN Foundation for Applied Research

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

Tool of risk ranking: Risk matrix

A B C D E

5

4

3

2

1

Consequence category

Like

lihoo

d ca

tego

ry

Low

Medium

Medium High

High

BAYZOLTÁN Foundation for Applied Research

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

Risk-Informed concept in nuclear industry more methods are carried out; the main principles are the same; qualitative and quantitative methods;

RI-ISI methods:- EPRI method;- OMF-Structures;- STUK method;- WOG method;- DNV method.

QualitativeHave the same interpretation;Less biased from personal judgment;

QuantitativeCan be misinterpreted;Not simple to communicate;Less detailed;Emphasize the most important features

BAYZOLTÁN Foundation for Applied Research

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

Risk-Informed concept in nuclear industry

REQUIREMENTS FOR

RI-ISI METHODS

Authority requirements

Defence-in-depth

Safety margins

Performance monitoring

system

RI-ISI = Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection

BAYZOLTÁN Foundation for Applied Research

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

Current status…in the world

RI-ISI of piping has become one of thepractical ways of NPP inspection;

RI-ISI is used widespread;

More than 50 units had been licensed forimplementing RI-ISI in US;

The methods are applied in Europeancountries in pilot projects and in actualapplications.

BAYZOLTÁN Foundation for Applied Research

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

… in Europe

Not a member country

Pilot study was carried out

No pilot study is running yet

Currently applications

No information

No operating nuclear power plant

BAYZOLTÁN Foundation for Applied Research

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

Summary of RI-ISI

In general: The cost-effective risk-approach isspreading in technical-economical segment of ourlife.

Specialties in the nuclear area:- Regulatory view are different;- The further consequences much higher;- Promote – skeptical;

Despite these facts most of the countries deal withthe possibility of the implementation of RI-ISI.

BAYZOLTÁN Foundation for Applied Research

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

Future plansTo apply and implement risk-informed in-serviceinspection concept for a pipeline system in HungarianNPP, - to explore the possibilites for improvement of themethodology.

Analyzing the current RI-ISI methodologies ==>EPRI method was chosen

Selecting a pipeline system for analyzing ==>

1. High pressure safety injection system

Not good idea: there are not so much damage mechanisms andconsequence categories ==> not good for demonstrationpurpose

2. Main circulating pipeline system

BAYZOLTÁN Foundation for Applied Research

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

Conclusions

1. Risk-informed methodologies play more andmore important role in the everydaypractice.

2. The applications of Risk-informedmethodologies in different industrial sectorsare based on well developed standards,guidelines.

3. The nuclear applications of RI-ISImethodologies are expanded all round theworld.

BAYZOLTÁN Foundation for Applied Research

Vienna, Austria, 27–30 October 2009

Thank you for your attention!

BAY-LOGIInstitute for Logistics

and Production Systems