Can Ukraine and Romania be a tandem in the Transnistrian settlement? 

Sergiy Gerasymchuk, Strategic and Security Studies Group

Kyiv, Ukraine

International Conference “Ukraine and Romania: Partners or Competitors?”Odesa, October 14, 2013

Transnistrian conflict

Recent developments

Ukraine’s OSCE Chairmanship Priority

5+2 rounds

November 25-26 will host the next round of negotiations on the Transnistrian settlement.

Ukraine – Romania tandem?

Key questions to answer:

Pros and cons of Romania’s involvement?What are the obstacles for cooperation?Are the obstacles artificial and the threats

exaggerated?

Arguments in favor of involvement

Both Romania and Ukraine are not interested in escalation of conflict

Both Romania and Ukraine agree upon the necessity to preserve territorial integrity of Moldova

Romania being on the path of the reforms can teach a lot

Obstacles: mutually negative stereotypes

Romania Ukraine

Exaggerated threats

Transnistria:

Exaggerated threats

Ukraine:

Exaggerated threats & speculations

Ukraine should react promptly: in case Romania annexes Moldova – Ukraine should annex Transnistria. Eduard Leonov “Svoboda”

Speculations of politicians supplemented by speculations of

“civil society” IdealistsPragmaticsFlexible HypocritesPro-Russian NGOs

Realistic threat and true obstacle

Ukraine – Romania tandem?

Added value: YESObstacles: LOTS OF THEMInvented or realistic obstacles: BOTHIs there any chance for the tandem?

Ukraine – Romania tandem

Already exists formallyHas good chances from both perspective of

liberal institutionalist : the politics of international organizations and Western States of consolidating democracy and good neighborliness imposed rules of cooperation

realist perspective: the patterns of cooperation are produced by the balancing behavior (fear of Russia)

Thank you for your attention!Q & A

Sergiy GerasymshukStrategic & Security Studies Group

Kyiv, Ukrainegerasymchuk@gsbs.org.ua

www.gsbs.org.ua