international energy outlook 2016 · 2018-01-19 · worldwide policies to limit coal use intensify....

www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

International Energy Outlook 2016

ForCenter on Global Energy PolicyColumbia UniversityJune 16, 2016 | New York, NY

ByAngelina LaRose

Key findings in the IEO2016 Reference case• World energy consumption increases from 549 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 629

quadrillion Btu in 2020 and then to 815 quadrillion Btu in 2040, a 48% increase (1.4%/year). Non-OECD Asia (including China and India) account for more than half of the increase.

• The industrial sector continues to account for the largest share of delivered energy consumption; the world industrial sector still consumes over half of global delivered energy in 2040.

• Renewable energy is the world’s fastest-growing energy source, increasing by 2.6%/year; nuclear energy grows by 2.3%/year, from 4% of the global total in 2012 to 6% in 2040.

• Fossil fuels continue to supply more than three-fourths of world energy use in 2040.

Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016 2

Key findings in the IEO2016 Reference case (continued)• Among the fossil fuels, natural gas grows the fastest. Coal use plateaus in

the mid-term as China shifts from energy-intensive industries to services and worldwide policies to limit coal use intensify. By 2030, natural gas surpasses coal as the world’s second largest energy source.

• In 2012, coal provided 40% of the world’s total net electricity generation. By 2040, coal, natural gas, and renewable energy sources provide roughly equal shares (28-29%) of world generation.

• With current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise from about 32 billion metric tons in 2012 to 36 billion metric tons in 2020 and then to 43 billion metric tons in 2040, a 34% increase.

3Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016

Many global issues increase uncertainty…• Economic growth in key economies (China, Brazil, Russia, among others)

• Implementation and strength of climate policies

• Technology improvement rates (both supply and demand)

• Unrest in oil producing countries

• OPEC production

• Future of nuclear generating capacity


Global outlook


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

U.S. OECDEurope

Japan SouthKorea

China India Brazil MiddleEast

Africa Russia

Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population

average annual percent change (2012–40)percent per year

Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016

Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy intensity (E/GDP) improvements moderate this trend

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016

6

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Coal

Petroleum and other liquid fuels

Natural gas Renewables

Nuclear

Coal with U.S. CPP

Renewables with U.S. CPP

Share oftotal energy

world energy consumptionquadrillion Btu


Renewables grow fastest, coal use plateaus, natural gas surpasses coal by 2030, and oil maintains its leading share

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016 and EIA, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (May 2015)

7

History Projections2012

33%

30%

28%22%

23%

26%

12%

17%

4%

6%

22%

16%

0

125

250

375

500

625

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

world delivered energy consumption by end-use sectorquadrillion Btu


As total energy consumption grows, shares by end-use sector remain relatively unchanged


8

Industrial

Buildings

Transportation

Share of totaldelivered energy

20% 21%

54%

53%

25%26%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Electricity generation

Gross domestic product

world GDP and net electricity generationpercent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods)


Economic growth drives electricity demand; electricity use grows at a faster rate than other delivered energy, but slower than GDP


9


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Non-OECD

OECD

Share oftotal energy 57%

43%

65%

35%



Non-OECD nations drive the increase in total energy use


10


0

150

300

450

600

750

900

2012 2020 2030 2040



Non-OECD Asia accounts for 55% of the world increase in energy use


11

Other non-OECD

Non-OECD Asia

OECD OECD

40

50

60

70

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Non-OECD

OECD

carbon intensity of energy consumption, 1990-2040kilograms CO2 per million Btu


Projected carbon intensity of energy use (CO2/E) declines through 2040 in both OECD and non-OECD; non-OECD CO2/E rose over 2000–12


12


Liquid fuels markets


0 10 20 30 40

OECD Europe

OECD Asia

OECD Americas

Africa

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Non-OECD Americas

Middle East

Non-OECD Asia

201220202040

world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumptionmillion barrels per day


Most of the growth in world oil consumption occurs in the non-OECD regions — especially Asia


14

passenger-miles per capita (left-axis) and GDP per capita (horizontal-axis) for selected country groupings 2010–40


Passenger-miles per person will rise as GDP per capita grows; travel growth is largely outside the OECD


15

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000

OECD

China

Othernon-OECD Asia

AfricaIndia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate

OPEC crude and lease condensate

Other liquids

world production of petroleum and other liquid fuelsmillion barrels per day


Liquid fuels supplies from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers increase through 2040


16


0 5 10 15

Gas-to-liquids

Coal-to-liquids

Biofuels

Refinery gain

Natural gas plant liquids

201220202040

million barrels per day


The largest components of other liquid fuels are NGPL, refinery gain, and biofuels


17

Natural gas markets


world natural gas consumptiontrillion cubic feet


Non-OECD nations will account for 76% of the growth in natural gas consumption


19

0

30

60

90

120

150

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

OECD Non-OECD

0 5 10 15 20

Other OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Other non-OECD

OECD Americas

Middle East

Non-OECD AsiaChina Other

Other

Other

Other

Iran Saudi Arabia

United States

Russia

world change in natural gas production, 2012–40trillion cubic feet


Non-OECD Asia, Middle East, and OECD Americas account for the largest increases in natural gas production


20

0

10

20

30

40

2012 2040 2012 2040 2012 2040

natural gas production by typetrillion cubic feet


Shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed methane will become increasingly important to gas supplies, not only for the U.S., but also China and Canada

Note: Other natural gas includes natural gas produced from structural and stratigraphic traps (e.g. reservoirs), historically referred to as ‘conventional’ production.Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016

21

China Canada

Shale gas

Other gas

United States

Coalbed methane

Tight gas

Electricity markets


-1

1

3

5

7

9

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Non-OECD electricity

Non-OECD GDP

OECD GDP

OECD electricity

world GDP and net electricity generationpercent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods)


GDP drives electricity demand growth, but the electricity growth rate compared to the GDP growth rate becomes smaller over time


23


0

10

20

30

40

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

world net electricity generation by sourcetrillion kilowatthours


Renewables, natural gas, and coal all contribute roughly the same amount of global net electricity generation in 2040


24

Liquids

Other renewables

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear

Hydropower

world net electricity generation from renewable energy by sourcetrillion kilowatthours


Wind and hydropower each account for one third of the increase in renewable generation; solar is fastest-growing (8.3%/year)


25

Biomass, waste, andtide/wave/ocean

Hydropower

Solar

Wind

Geothermal

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

0 40 80 120 160

Rest of world

Other non-OECD Asia

India

China

Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia

OECD Asia

OECD Americas

OECD Europe

20122040

world installed nuclear capacity by regiongigawatts


Virtually all of the growth in nuclear power will occur in the non-OECD regions; China accounts for 61% of world nuclear capacity growth


26

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions


0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Liquid fuels

Coal

Natural gas

36% 36%

20%

43%26%

38%

world energy-related carbon dioxide emissionsbillion metric tons


Coal remains the world’s largest source of energy-related CO2 emissions, but by 2040 its share declines to 38%


28

History Projections2012Share of total

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

China

United States with CPP

IndiaUnited States

coal consumption in the US, China, and Indiaquadrillion Btu


Of the world’s three largest coal consumers, only India is projected to continue to increase throughout the projection

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016 and EIA, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (May 2015)

29


0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 2000 2012 2020 2030 2040

OECD Other non-OECD Non-OECD Asia

world energy-related carbon dioxide emissionsbillion metric tons


Non-OECD Asia will account for about 60% of the world increase in energy-related CO2 emissions


30

History Projections

For more informationU.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

State Energy Profiles | www.eia.gov/state

Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

International Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/beta/international/?src=home-b1


http://www.eia.gov/

http://www.eia.gov/aeo

http://www.eia.gov/steo

http://www.eia.gov/ieo

http://www.eia.gov/mer

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

http://www.eia.gov/state

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/?src=home-b1

Supplementary Slides


0

10

20

30

40

Middle East North Africa West Africa South America

2012 2020 2040

OPEC crude and lease condensate productionmillion barrels per day


Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East


33

0

3

6

9

12

15

Brazil Russia Canada Kazakhstan China OECD Europe

2012 2020 2040

non-OPEC crude and lease condensate production in selected country groupingsmillion barrels per day


Increases to non-OPEC oil supplies outside the United States are primarily from Brazil, Russia, Canada, and Kazakhstan


34

LNG capacity additionsbillion cubic feet per day


Liquefaction capacity additions over the 2015-19 time period will increase global capacity by over 30%

Note: Capacity additions in 2015-19 include projects currently under construction, and represent nameplate capacity, not adjusted for ramp-upSource: U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates based on trade press

35

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Australia Colombia Indonesia Malaysia United States

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Canada Brazil India United States OECD Europe China

renewable net electricity generation by selected country and country grouping, 2040billion kilowatthours


Geographically, the scale and fuel mix of renewable generation in 2040 varies widely


36

Biomass, waste, andtide/wave/ocean

Hydropower

Solar

Wind

Geothermal

international energy outlook 2016 · 2018-01-19 · worldwide policies to limit coal use intensify....

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