international exit poll 2014
TRANSCRIPT
International Exit Poll 2014 Early Parliamentary Elections, Ukraine – October 26, 2014
This Exit Poll is organized by 4 partners. The sponsor of the project is the
Government of Canada. The exit poll is executed by the Rating Group Ukraine
and «Baltic Surveys» / The Gallup Organization (Lithuania) with the support of
International Republican Institute (USA).
Voters were surveyed at 330 polling stations in all regions of Ukraine except of
Crimea. About 25 000 respondents participated in the exit poll.
All polling stations were clustered using the criteria of the region, urban/rural
location and the size. Than in each cluster, the polling stations were selected at
random following the principal of proportionality. Respondents at the polling
stations were selected using the pre-defined interval, universal all over the
country. The data were collected at the exit from polling station. Voters who just
have casted their vote were asked to self-complete the questionnaire. The
respondent than put the completed questionnaire into the specially designed box.
1000 interviewers and other staff members participated in this project.
Margin of error for big numbers does not exceed – +/- 1,5%,
for small numbers – +/- 1%.
Voting dynamics during the day
4
6
8 10 9
11
5
7 9
10 11
14
12
15
17
20
24
28
17 16
19 20
22 22
24 23
23 22
19
16
38
33
25
18 15
9
0
10
20
30
40
8-10 a.m. 10-12 a.m. 12-14 p.m. 14-16 p.m. 16-18 p.m. 18-19 p.m.
18-24 years
25-29 years
30-39 years
40-49 years
50-59 years
60+ years
Dynamics of the voters’ structure by age during the day (bihourly), %
0
5
10
15
20
25
8-10 a.m. 10-12 a.m. 12-14 p.m. 14-16 p.m. 16-18 p.m. 18-19 p.m.
Bloc of P.Poroshenko
Narodnyi Front
SAMOPOMICH
Oppositional Block
Svoboda
Radical Party
Batkivshchyna
Dynamics of party support during the day (bihourly), %
Results
Results of the International Exit Poll, %
Interviewing took place at 330 polling stations in all regions of Ukraine, except of
Crimea. About 25 000 respondents were interviewed. 22,2% 21,8%
14,2%
7,8%
6,4% 5,8%
5,6% 2,9% 3,2%
2,7%
1,6
0,4
0,4
0,6
2,0
2,4
2,7
2,9
3,2
5,6
5,8
6,4
7,8
14,2
21,8
22,2
0 5 10 15 20 25
Other
Internet party
"5.10"
Solidarity of Women
ZASTUP
Pravyi Sector
Sylna Ukrayina
Communist Party
Civic Position
Batkivshchyna
Svoboda
Radical Party
Oppositional Block
SAMOPOMICH
Narodnyi Front
Bloc of P.Poroshenko
Results of the International Exit Poll, %
Support for the parties
in the regions
Results by the regions, %
2
1
1
1
2
3
3
6
6
7
16
22
31
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Other
Communist Party
Sylna Ukrayina
Oppositional Block
ZASTUP
Pravyi Sector
Civic Position
Batkivshchyna
Radical Party
Svoboda
SAMOPOMICH
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
Narodnyi Front
West
Results by the regions, %
Center
4
2
2
2
2
3
3
6
6
8
11
25
29
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Other
Sylna Ukrayina
Communist Party
Pravyi Sector
ZASTUP
Oppositional Block
Civic Position
Batkivshchyna
Svoboda
Radical Party
SAMOPOMICH
Narodnyi Front
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
Results by the regions, %
North
3
2
2
2
3
3
3
6
7
9
14
23
24
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Other
Sylna Ukrayina
Pravyi Sector
Communist Party
ZASTUP
Oppositional Block
Civic Position
Svoboda
Batkivshchyna
Radical Party
SAMOPOMICH
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
Narodnyi Front
Results by the regions, %
Kyiv
3
1
2
2
3
3
4
5
5
10
17
21
27
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Other
ZASTUP
Communist Party
Sylna Ukrayina
Oppositional Block
Radical Party
Pravyi Sector
Civic Position
Batkivshchyna
Svoboda
Narodnyi Front
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
SAMOPOMICH
Results by the regions, %
South
5
1
3
3
3
6
6
7
8
10
12
13
23
0 5 10 15 20 25
Other
Pravyi Sector
Civic Position
ZASTUP
Svoboda
Radical Party
Batkivshchyna
Communist Party
Sylna Ukrayina
SAMOPOMICH
Oppositional Block
Narodnyi Front
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
Results by the regions, %
East
4
2
2
3
4
5
5
6
6
11
11
20
22
0 5 10 15 20 25
Other
Pravyi Sector
ZASTUP
Civic Position
Svoboda
Sylna Ukrayina
Batkivshchyna
Radical Party
Communist Party
SAMOPOMICH
Narodnyi Front
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
Oppositional Block
Results by the regions, %
Donbas
5
0
1
2
2
3
6
7
8
8
8
13
35
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Other
ZASTUP
Civic Position
Pravyi Sector
Svoboda
Batkivshchyna
Radical Party
SAMOPOMICH
Communist Party
Sylna Ukrayina
Narodnyi Front
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
Oppositional Block
Support of the parties by
the type of the settlement
Support of the parties by the type of the settlement, %
3 1
3 3 3 4 5 5 6
9 16
20 22
0 5 10 15 20 25
Other
ZASTUP
Pravyi Sector
Sylna Ukrayina
Communist Party
Civic Position
Batkivshchyna
Radical Party
Svoboda
Oppositional Block
SAMOPOMICH
Narodnyi Front
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
3 2 2 2
3 4
5 6
7 9
10 22
26
051015202530
Other
Pravyi Sector
Civic Position
Communist Party
Sylna Ukrayina
ZASTUP
Svoboda
Oppositional Block
Batkivshchyna
Radical Party
SAMOPOMICH
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
Narodnyi Front
Rural
Urban
Structure of the electorate of main parties by the type of the settlement, %
39
54
61
62
68
70
74
74
76
78
78
78
61
46
39
38
32
30
26
26
24
22
22
22
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ZASTUP
Radical Party
Batkivshchyna
Narodnyi Front
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
Sylna Ukrayina
Communist Party
Svoboda
Oppositional Block
Civic Position
SAMOPOMICH
Pravyi Sector
Urban Rural
Support of the parties by
the age groups
Support of the parties by the age groups, %
5 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 5
8 19
21 22
0 5 10 15 20 25
Other
Communist Party
Sylna Ukrayina
Civic Position
Svoboda
Oppositional Block
ZASTUP
Batkivshchyna
Pravyi Sector
Radical Party
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
SAMOPOMICH
Narodnyi Front
5 1
2 2
3 3
4 5 5
7 20
21 22
0510152025
Other
Communist Party
ZASTUP
Civic Position
Sylna Ukrayina
Svoboda
Pravyi Sector
Batkivshchyna
Oppositional Block
Radical Party
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
SAMOPOMICH
Narodnyi Front
25-29 y.o.
18-24 y.o.
Younger age groups
Support of the parties by the age groups, %
4 1 2 3 3 3
5 5 5 5
20 22 23
0 5 10 15 20 25
Other
Communist Party
ZASTUP
Civic Position
Pravyi Sector
Sylna Ukrayina
Svoboda
Batkivshchyna
Radical Party
Oppositional Block
SAMOPOMICH
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
Narodnyi Front
3 2 2
3 3 3
5 6 6
7 17
22 23
0510152025
Other
Communist Party
ZASTUP
Pravyi Sector
Sylna Ukrayina
Civic Position
Radical Party
Batkivshchyna
Svoboda
Oppositional Block
SAMOPOMICH
Narodnyi Front
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
40-49 y.o.
30-39 y.o.
Middle-age groups
Support of the parties by the age groups, %
3 2 2 3 3 4
6 6 7 8
12 22 23
0 5 10 15 20 25
Other
Pravyi Sector
ZASTUP
Sylna Ukrayina
Communist Party
Civic Position
Radical Party
Batkivshchyna
Svoboda
Oppositional Block
SAMOPOMICH
Narodnyi Front
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
2 1
2 3
4 6 6
7 7
8 12
21 23
0510152025
Other
Pravyi Sector
ZASTUP
Sylna Ukrayina
Civic Position
Communist Party
Batkivshchyna
SAMOPOMICH
Svoboda
Radical Party
Oppositional Block
Narodnyi Front
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
60+ y.o.
50-59 y.o.
Older age groups
Structure of the electorate of main parties by the age groups, %
2
3
4
5
5
9
6
7
5
12
10
16
3
5
5
6
6
9
7
8
9
9
12
13
6
11
14
13
15
14
17
17
21
18
23
23
12
16
18
18
18
15
19
19
18
17
22
21
22
24
25
28
26
21
24
23
22
24
19
17
54
41
34
30
30
33
28
26
25
20
14
10
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Communist Party
Oppositional Block
Svoboda
Civic Position
Batkivshchyna
Radical Party
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
Narodnyi Front
Sylna Ukrayina
ZASTUP
SAMOPOMICH
Pravyi Sector
18-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+
Support of the parties
by gender
Support of the parties by gender, %
3 2 3 3
2 4 5
7 7 8
15 19
22
0 5 10 15 20 25
Other
ZASTUP
Pravyi Sector
Communist Party
Sylna Ukrayina
Civic Position
Batkivshchyna
Oppositional Block
Svoboda
Radical Party
SAMOPOMICH
Narodnyi Front
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
3 2 2
3 3 3
5 6 6
9 13
22 24
051015202530
Other
Pravyi Sector
ZASTUP
Communist Party
Civic Position
Sylna Ukrayina
Svoboda
Radical Party
Batkivshchyna
Oppositional Block
SAMOPOMICH
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
Narodnyi Front
Women
Men
Structure of the main parties by gender, %
59
54
53
53
50
47
44
40
40
40
39
37
41
46
47
47
50
53
56
60
60
60
61
63
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Pravyi Sector
Svoboda
Civic Position
Radical Party
Communist Party
SAMOPOMICH
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko
Sylna Ukrayina
Batkivshchyna
ZASTUP
Narodnyi Front
Oppositional Block
Men Women
Embassy of Canada to Ukraine
13А Kostelna St.
Kyiv, Ukraine 01901
Tel.: (+38 044) 590-3100
Fax: (+38 044) 590-3134
http://www.canadainternational.gc.ca/ukraine
International Republican Institute / Ukraine
44, #2 Velyka Vasylkivska St.
Kyiv, Ukraine 01004
Tel.: (+38 044) 581-3242
Tel.: (+38 044) 581-3241
http://www.iri.org/
Baltic Surveys, Ltd / The Gallup Organization
10A Smolensko St.
Vilnius, LithuaniaLT-03201
Tel. : (+3705) 212-0104
Fax: (+3705) 212-7145
http://www.gallup.com/corporate/171821/global-offices.aspx
Rating Group Ukraine
3, Ivana Mazepy str.
Kyiv, Ukraine 01010
Tel.:(+380 44) 254-3694
Tel.: (+380 44) 254-3693
http://www.ratinggroup.com.ua/