international higher education trends 2012

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Francisco Marmolejo [email protected] 3/8/2012 1 http://www.conahec.org http://www.arizona.edu Francisco Marmolejo Consortium for North American Higher Education Collaboration The University of Arizona “When I think about the future… I become scared of the present”

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Page 1: International Higher Education Trends 2012

Francisco Marmolejo

[email protected]

3/8/2012

1

http://www.conahec.org

http://www.arizona.edu

Tucson, AZ March 6, 2012Francisco Marmolejo

Consortium for North American Higher Education Collaboration

The University of Arizona

“When I think about

the future… I become

scared of the present”

Page 2: International Higher Education Trends 2012

Francisco Marmolejo

[email protected]

3/8/2012

2

http://www.conahec.org

http://www.arizona.edu

Page 3: International Higher Education Trends 2012

Francisco Marmolejo

[email protected]

3/8/2012

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http://www.conahec.org

http://www.arizona.edu

Page 4: International Higher Education Trends 2012

Francisco Marmolejo

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…Implications for higher education

Page 5: International Higher Education Trends 2012

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����Massification

����Still asymetrical access / retention/ graduation

���� Increasing international student mobility

���� Revolution in teaching, learning and curriculum

����Quality assurance, accountability and qualification frameworks

���� Financing higher education

����The private providers’ revolution

����The academic profession

����The research environment

���� Information and communications technology

International trends in higher education

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1800 1 billion people1927 2 billion people1999 6 billion people2050 9 billion people

Courtesy of Paul E. LingenfelterCourtesy of Paul E. LingenfelterCourtesy of Paul E. LingenfelterCourtesy of Paul E. Lingenfelter

The demographic factor

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0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

100000

25

0

50

0

750

100

0

125

0

150

0

175

0

20

00

22

50

Millions

http://www.beerkens.info/blog/atom.xml

…Geographic distribution

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…Population distribution

The fastest population growth in world’s

history…

140 %

256 %

2.5 %

and more unequal

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¿Where are located Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Uganda,

Nigeria, Vietnam and the Democratic Republic of Congo?

RANK COUNTRY 1950 COUNTRY 2000 COUNTRY 2050

1 China 554.8 China 1,275.2 India 1,531.4

2 India 357.6 India 1,016.9 China 1,395.2

3 USA. 157.8 USA 285.0 USA 408.7

4 Russian Federation 102.7 Indonesia 211.6 Pakistan 348.7

5 Japan 83.6 Brazil 171.8 Indonesia 293.8

6 Indonesia 79.5 Russia 145.6 Nigeria 258.5

7 Germany 68.4 Pakistan 142.7 Bangladesh 254.6

8 Brazil 54.0 Bangladesh 138.0 Brazil 233.1

9 Great Britan 49.8 Japan 127.0 Ethiopia 171.0

10 Italy 47.1 Nigeria 114.7 DR Congo 151.6

11 France 41.8 MEXICO 98.9 MEXICO 140.2

12 Bangladesh 41.8 Germany 82.3 Egypt 127.4

13 Ukraine 37.3 Philipines 75.7 Vietnam 117.7

14 Nigeria 29.8 Turkey 68.3 Japan 109.7

15 Spain 28.0 Egypt 67.8 Iran 105.5

16 MEXICO 27.7 Iran 66.4 Uganda 103.2

Fuente: ONU (2004). World Population to 2300.

World’s most populated countries. 1950-2050

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-

+

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-

+

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Costos

Beneficios

“La globalización ha traido consigo el

surgimiento de un riesgoso régimen

globalitario que ha provocado una

espectacular multinacionalización de

la economía y una aculturización”

IGNACIO RAMONET “Géopolitique du chaos” (1999)

http://conahec.org

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

High Income Countries

South Asia

North Africa and Middle East

East and Pacific Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America and the Caribbean

Source: Luis F. Lopez-Calva y N. Lusing0: Equity of Total Income

1: Inequity of Total Income

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Dominique Moisi.Geopolitics of Emotions (2009)

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More than ever more people are having access to higher education …

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1997 2009

Tasa Bruta 7,8% 24,7%

7,8%

24,7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Tasa Bruta de Cobertura

Gross enrollment rate in Brazilian Higher

Education

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Undergraduate Enrollment 1983-2009

Graduate Enrolllment 1983-2009

Source: Aliaga y col., SIES, Junio 210

Chile

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Evolución de la Estructura de Edad de la Población en MéxicoEvolución de la Estructura de Edad de la Población en México

EdadEdad HombresHombres MujeresMujeres

20502050

00

2020

4040

6060

8080

100100

120120 100100 8080 6060 4040 2020 00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100 120120

Millones de PersonasMillones de Personas

20202020

0000

2020

4040

6060

8080

100100

00

20002000

00

2020

4040

6060

8080

100100

http://conahec.org

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The demographic structure from a regional point of view

Canada

Millions of inhabitants

Age

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90-94

Sourcee: Jaime Parada, CONACYT

Mexico

USA

Growth in university-level qualificationsApproximated by the percentage of the population that has attained tertiary-type A

education in the age groups 25-34 years, 35-44 years, 45-54 years and 55-64 years) (2007)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Cana

da

United S

tates

New Z

ealand

Estonia

Finland

Australia

Norway

Sweden

Netherland

sSwitze

rland

United Kingd

omDenm

ark

Japa

nGerm

any

Ice

land

Belgium

OECD average

Lux

embourg

EU19 average

Ireland

France

Spa

inHunga

rySlovenia

Greece

Austria

Poland

Korea

Slovak Republic

Cze

ch R

epublic

Italy

Mexico

Chile

Brazil

Turke

yPortugal

2000's 1990's 1980's 1970's

%

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http://conahec.org

http://www.beerkens.info/blog/atom.xml

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Order in 2050

by size

Rank change

between 2012

and 2050

1 China 2

2 US -1

3 India 5

4 Japan -2

5 Germany -1

6 UK -1

7 Brazil 2

8 Mexico 5

9 France -3

10 Canada 0

11 Italy -4

12 Turkey 6

13 S. Korea -2

14 Spain -2

15 Russia 2

16 Indonesia 5

17 Australia -3

18 Argentina -2

19 Egypt 16

20 Malaysia 17

Source: HSBC Global Research Unit. http://www.hsbcnet.com/gbm/global-insights/insights/2011/world-in-2050.html#

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2000

2005

2010

USA

CANADA

MEXICO

Source: OECD Factbook 2012

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(*): GDP equivalent based on PPP

Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2010

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1997 2009

En Sector Privado 689 2.160

En Sector Público 211 252

689

2.160

211

252

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

Número de Ins tuiciones en la Educación Superior - Brasil 1997-2009

Out of 2.412 HEIs in Brazil, only 252 are public

Public vs. private higher education institutions

in Brazil

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

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Fuente: Parada, J. Science and Technology Policy in Mexico. 2003

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000

México

República Checa

Portugal

Nueva Zelanda

Brasil

Noruega

India

Israel

Canadá

China

Holanda

Inglaterra

Corea del Sur

Francia

Alemania

Japón

EUA

Países OCDE

Mundo

.

Mundo: 47,022

EUA: 13,715

México: 13

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Mobility

Providers of higher education

Curriculum

Rankings

One

• Increased mobility (intra/inter)

• Internationalization adopted in the institutional rhetoric

Two• Massive private investment on education

Three

• Towards more international quality assurance frameworks

Four• The role of rankings

Five

• Technology as means for “virtual” mobility

• Proliferation of dual/joint degrees

Six• Timid efforts with second language

Seven• Some good practices. Some hope

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The endless dichotomies

Differences in history, structure,

responses.

John Hudzik

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It shapes institutional ethos and values and touches the entire higher education

enterprise.

It is essential that it be embraced by institutional leadership, governance,

faculty, students, and all academic service and support units.

Not only impacts all of campus life but the institution’s external frames of reference,

partnerships, and relations.

The global reconfiguration of economies, systems of trade, research, and

communication, and the impact of global forces on local life, dramatically expand the

need for comprehensive internationalization and the motivations

and purposes driving it.

COMPREHENSIVE INTERNATIONALIZATION

John Hudzik

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.

1975 1980 1990 1995 2000 2004 2006 2008

More than 3.3 million studentsabroad. It is forecasted that by 2020 therewill be 7 million internationalstudents.

Source: OECD and UNESCO Institute for Statistics (for data on non-OECD countries and up to 1995).

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• It is forecasted that by 2020 the number will increase to 7 million international students

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Australia

United Kingd

om

Austria

Switze

rland

New

Zealand

Belgium

Ireland

Canad

Swed

en

Denmark

Iceland

Netherland

s

Finland

Hungary

United States

Japan

Spain

Slovak Repub

lic

Portugal

Norway

Slovenia

Estonia

Poland

Chile

2009 OECD average

%

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Major players: U.S.A., U.K. and Australia

Middle powers: France, Germany, Spain, Italy

Evolving destinations: Canada, New Zealand, Japan

Emerging contenders: Malaysia, China, Singapore

Source: Verbik, L. et al. (2007) International Student Mobility: Patterns and Trends. The Observatory on

Borderless Higher Education

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China: 17.1%

India: 6.8%

Korea: 4.6%

Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2010

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Other OCDE9%

Austria2% Italy

2%Swiss2%Belgium2%

Spain2%

Japan4%

France9%

Australia10%

Germany12%

England14%

U.S.A.20%

20022006

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USE OF ENGLISH LANGUAGE IN INSTRUCTION

COUNTRIES

All or nearly all education programs Australia, Canada, Ireland, N.Zealand, U.K., U.S.A.

Many education programs Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Sweden

Some education programs Belgium (Fl.), Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary,

Iceland, Japan, Korea, Norway, Poland, Slovak R., Switzerland,

Turkey

None or nearly no education programs Austria, Belgium (Fr.), Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Mexico,

Portugal, Spain, Brazil, Chile, Israel, Russian Federation

Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2006

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TUITION FEE STRUCTURE COUNTRIES

Higher tuition for international students than for

domestic students

Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Ireland,

Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovak Republic, Turkey,

United Kingdom1, United States

Same tuition for international and domestic

students

France, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico,

Portugal, Spain, Switzerland

No tuition for either international or domestic

students

Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway,

Sweden

Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2006 and 2010

A worldwide “industry” generating more than 20 billion USD annually

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Mobility still mostly:

For the better-off students

To the better-off countries

Cultural/experiential goals and means:

Questionable practices. (The

“bubble” effect)

The “time-compression”

factor

Increased commodification:

Quality Assurance

Money talks

Regulations?

“Brain-drain”

Brain-circulation?

The role of governments,

companies and universities

Students traveling abroad

for a short period of time

with their “imported”

teacher, remaining together,

continuing to speak mainly

their own language even

while abroad, and having

just a superficial glimpse at

the foreign culture and

people

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� More than half of the U.S. students who go

abroad only participate in a short term

program (IIE, 2010)

Mobility still mostly:

For the better-off students

To the better-off countries

Cultural/experiential goals and means:

Questionable practices. (The

“bubble” effect)

The “time-compression”

factor

Increased commodification:

Quality Assurance

Money talks

Regulations?

“Brain-drain”

Brain-circulation?

The role of governments,

companies and universities

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Share of a country’s national with a university education who live in an(other) OECD country

Note: The emigration rate of highly educated persons from country i is calculated by dividing the highly educated expatriate population from country of

origin i by the total highly educated native-born population of the same country (Highly educated native-born(i)= Expatriates(i) + Resident native born(i)).

Highly educated persons correspond to those with a tertiary level of education.

Source: OECD Database on Foreign Born and Expatriates; Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, 2006 and Cohen D. and M. Soto, 2001, Growth and

Human Capital: Good Data, Good Results, OECD Development Centre WP n°179.

Only 30 % of Africans studying abroad

return to the region after graduationJamil Salmi

F. Marmolejo, S. Manley y S. Vincent-LancrinImmigration and access to tertiary education: Integration or marginalisation?”

OECD, 2009

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Nunnally JohnsonThe Grapes of Wrath (1940)

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Competency Important Achieved

Ethical commitment 3.76 3.0

Commitment to quality 3.72 2.91

Ability to learn and adapt learning 3.68 2.94

Ability to apply knowledge in practice 3.66 2.84

Ability to identify, pose and solve problems 3.65 2.92

Competency Important Achieved

Capacity for research 3.4 2.76

Commitment to socio-cult. environment 3.37 2.71

Comm. to look after the environment 3.27 2.45

Ability to work in international context 3.15 2.30

Ability to communicate in a 2nd. language 3.11 2.06

Most

important

Less

important

Source: Final Report Tuning Latin America. (2007) . http://www.tuning.unideusto.org

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Source: IAU (2010)

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Fonte: English Next (2007). The British Council

By the year 2050 the most widely

spoken languages in the world will

be:

• 1 Mandarin

• 2 Spanish

• 3= English

• 3= Hindi/Urdu

• 3= Arabic.

Even considering English as the

lingua franca of business, Mark Davis back in 2004 did an

interesting breakdown of the

percentages of world GDP by

language. He calculated that by

2010 English would represent only 28 percent of the global market, followed by Chinese, Japanese,

German and Spanish.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1950 2000 2050

Arabic

Spanish

English

Hindu-Urdu

Chinese

Arabic

Spanish

English

Hindu-Urdu

Chinese

Source: David Graddol. The Future of English? (London: British Council, 1997). Foreign Policy. Nov-Dec. 2003. No. 139

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Fonte:

English Next

(2007). The

British

Council

The role agents

Authenticity of credentials

International quality

frameworks

The influence of public policy

Financial/political domestic

implications

Institutional & community

preparedness

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Source: SIL International. http://www.sil.org

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Fuente: English Next (2007). The British Council

1: Noruega. 69.09

18: Mexico. 51.48

44: Kazajstán 31.64

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1950 2000 2050

Arabic

Spanish

English

Hindu-Urdu

Chinese

Arabic

Spanish

English

Hindu-Urdu

Chinese

Source: David Graddol. The Future of English? (London: British Council, 1997). Foreign Policy. Nov-Dec. 2003. No. 139

Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]

Fuente:

English Next

(2007). The

British

Council

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Source: Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel. Modernization,

Cultural Change and Democracy. New York, Cambridge

University Press, 2005: p. 64 based on the World Values Surveys.

Steve Breen. The San Diego Union-Tribunehttp://conahec.org

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A new type of

students

Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]

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Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]

¿Sequential? Multi-task?

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http://www.conahec.org

http://www.arizona.edu

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http://www.conahec.org

http://www.arizona.edu

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d wA dis teacha wrks S borin.

r teacha S lamo. Jst B$U@? PTMN bout

dis teacha. I N-K

Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]

The way this teacher works is

boring. Our teacher is an idiot.

Just bla, bla, bla.

Where are you?

Please tell me now

about this teacher.

I need to know

Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]

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http://www.arizona.edu

� Defina what a circle is:

It is a line connected by two ends making a round figure.

� What is Trigonometry?:

Device used to measure trigonometers.

GEOMETRY

HISTORIA

� Who was Simón Bolivar?

The Prince of Bolivia

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� What are the movements of the heart?:� The heart is always in movement. It doesn’t move in the case of corpses only.

� Brain:

Ideas, after being spoken, go straight to the brain.

THE HUMAN BODY

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I have a netbook, MP3

Players, flashdrive, IPAD…

Dad, what did you use in

school?

My brain!!

Gajaraj Dhanarajan

Colu

mn2

, ,

99…

Col

um

n…

Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]

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http://www.conahec.org

http://www.arizona.edu

http://www.worldmapper.org

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http://www.conahec.org

http://www.arizona.edu

Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]

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%

YES

NO

37

63

0

20

40

60

80

YES

NO

Source: Market Facts/TeleNation for GTE Directories. USA Today. Sep. 24-98

http://conahec.org

Pew Internet &

American Life: US

educators not Net-

savvy Aug 14 2002: A

new study from Pew

Internet & American

Life indicates that 78

percent of middle and

high school students

in the US use the

Internet.

However, most

American teenagers

claim that educators

often don’t know how,

don’t want, or aren’t

able to use online

tools to help them

learn or enrich their

studies.

Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]

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In a traditional setting:

The University

Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]

Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]

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Towards a new

University

Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]

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� More international, but more locally

connected and socially responsible.

� More flexible

� More innovative

� More entrepreneur

� More critical of the status-quo

� More collaborative (inside and outside)

Source: Business Council of British Columbia

Graduates required in today’s world

Habilidades Técnicas

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� What it may work in one case

There is no magic formula…

…it is not necessarily the best solution in

other cases

What are the longer-term possibilities for building comprehensive and sustainable partnerships?

Are there examples of institutions moving in this direction? How to use them?

What are the major barriers that need to be overcomed?

What are the major forces or factors that are encouraging institutions to become more internationalized

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A priority for “tomorrow”

Marginal

Non practical

Source of prestige and “sell”

Just a good idea

Priority for “yesterday”

Beneficial

Highly practical

Survival tool

A critical need

http://conahec.org

Preparing students with global awareness and competitiveness but also with social consciousness and greater sense of social

responsibility?

Strengthening the cooperation among higher education institutions and their surrounding communities, nationally and

internationally?

Implementing mechanisms for a better understanding, awareness and respect?

Innovating?

Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]

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http://www.conahec.org

http://www.arizona.edu

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http://www.conahec.org

http://www.arizona.edu

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http://www.conahec.org

http://www.arizona.edu

CONAHEC was created In 1994 as the

U.S.-Mexico Educational Interchange

Project

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� Collaboration� Cooperation� Community-building

among higher education

institutions in North Americahttp://conahec.org

…and beyond

CONAHEC’s memberships’ total enrollment

represents2.5+ million students

On more than 250 campi

150+ Institutions and

Higher Education Organizations

• Argentina • Brazil• Chile • Colombia• Dominican Republic• Ecuador• Honduras

In North America… and beyond

• Iceland• Malaysia• Spain• South Korea•Burkina Faso

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http://conahec.org

There is no better or worst.. It is just

different

There is always someone else with a similar interest

The node network is not the office in Tucson, but each member institution

http://conahec.org

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A Strategic Alliance

Association of Association of Association of Association of CanadianCanadianCanadianCanadianCommunityCommunityCommunityCommunityCollegesCollegesCollegesColleges

Networking. “Dating service” (Match-making)

Exchange of “empty seats” (Student Exchange)

Promotion / Awareness / Training

Resource center for administrators / faculty / students

Assisting member institutions in developing/implementing/evaluating partnership arrangements with peer institutions

Our most popular services

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North American “Dating Service”

• research

• study abroad

• faculty sabbaticals,

fellowships, and exchanges

• leadership training for

administrators

• consulting for higher

education or business

• job offers (students,

faculty)

• student internships

• intensive language

programs

• institutional partnerships

• funding opportunities

• business higher

education partnerships

• requests for partner

institutions to collaborate

on specific projects

� Learn new approaches

� Share expertise

� Connect with partners for collaboration

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� Undergraduate and graduate levels

� Multi-institutional, multi-level

� Costs. Tuition Swaps

� Credit Recognition

� Electronically based exchange program

http://conahec.org

� “Service Learning” based student exchanges

� More asymmetrical than today

� Faculty exchanges (based on institutional

needs)

� Staff exchanges (in conjunction with

Compostela Group of Universities’ STELLA

Program)

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� Opportunity to involve studentsOpportunity to involve studentsOpportunity to involve studentsOpportunity to involve students� Future leadersFuture leadersFuture leadersFuture leaders� Ambassadors and advocatesAmbassadors and advocatesAmbassadors and advocatesAmbassadors and advocates� Venues: Venues: Venues: Venues:

� Regional ChaptersRegional ChaptersRegional ChaptersRegional Chapters� ConferenceConferenceConferenceConference

� Educational Resource Center for Hispanics in the U.S. unable to attend “traditional” institutions due to:

� Language issues (Spanish as preferred language of

communication)

� Age

� Limited financial resources

� Time constraints

� Lack of appropriate documents

� Educational background

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http://conahec.org

“ Lo que nos desconcierta en

nuestros tiempos es que el futuro ya

no es lo que solía ser ”

Paul Valéry

Una nota final

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Francisco J. Marmolejo

Executive Director

Consortium for North American Higher Education

Collaboration (CONAHEC)

University of Arizona

Tucson, AZ 85721-0300 U.S.A.

Tel. (520) 621-9080 / Fax (520) 626-2675

E.mail: [email protected]

WWW: http://conahec.org