International Seminar on Approaches and Methodologies of Private Stock of Food Grain

Topic: Estimation of Private Stock of Food Grain-Bangladesh Perspective

(Part-I: Situation of Private Stock of Food Grain;

Part-2: Survey on Private Stock of Food Grain

-Considerable Issues)

Bidhan Baral

Joint Director, &

Dipankar Roy, PhD

Joint Director

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

Statistics and Informatics Division

Ministry of Planning

Outline

PART-I: Situation of Private Stock of Food Grain1. Background2. Importance of Food Grain Stock Analysis3. Existing Data System, Limitations4. Annual Production Statistics (rice, wheat and maize)5. Import Scenario of rice and wheat6. Actors in Food Grain Supply Chain7. Pattern of Farm Households8. Stocking Pattern9. Supply and Retention Pattern10. Consumption Pattern of Cereals11. Marketable and Marketed Supply of rice, wheat and maize12. Recommendations

Background

• Bangladesh is self-reliant in producing rice• Both production and demand are high• The government needed to pay attention on

food management for long• The situation has been changed since 2010 and

onward for the persistent higher production offood

• Private stock assessment is necessary for efficientfood management specially export-importdecision making, maintaining buffer stock, and soon

Importance of Food Grain Stock Analysis

• The production of rice is high (34.7 million ton)• Population is more than160 million- high food

demand• Comprehensive data on marketable or marketed

surplus of food grain is needed (to facilitate food balance sheet and food policy and value addition)

• Production of wheat is limited- import dependent• Maize is used only for animal fodder• Ensure food security• Eradication of poverty (SDG Goal)

Existing Data System, Limitations

Existing Data System• Annual production data of BBS as main source• The per capital consumption data of BBS available• Data on retention of food grain collected by HIES, not published• Food Balance Sheet compiled by BBS, an useful source of various

information• The export-import data is of National Board of Revenue or

Bangladesh Bank• Time series data maintained by FPMU, MoFLimitations• No published data on supply-chain of food grain, • The food grain retention data of HIES lacks from receipts of food

grain and the carry-in stock other than production• No available data on food grain use/stock for trade or industry

Annual Production Statistics (rice, wheat and maize)

Food

Grain

Cultivated

Area

(Lac

Hectare)

Production

(Lac ton)

Rice 113.81

(gross)

347.10

Wheat 4.45 13.48

Maize 3.34 24.45

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Rice Wheat Maize

347.1

13.48 24.45

Production (Lac ton)

Production(Lac ton)

• Surplus rice production in the country• Minimum production of wheat• Increasing maize production with no contribution to cereal consumption

Import Scenario of rice and wheatSl Year Rice (Husked) Wheat

Private Public Total Private Public Total

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

01 2006-2007695224 25280 720504 1513691 186294 1699985

02 2007-20081681334 373786 2055120 1234907 176503 1411410

03 2008-2009187265 415304 602569 2029507 395906 2425413

04 2009-201036606 55161 91767 2862543 500738 3363281

05 2010-2011290484 1302172 1592656 2818434 978198 3796632

06 2011-201258695 443458 502153 1181286 582267 1763553

07 2012-201325272 1440 26712 1393403 951497 2344900

08 2013-2014371500 3059 374559 1765162 852857 2618019

09 2014-20161490356 0 1490356 3449992 334008 3784000

10 2015-2016255964 0 255964 3949934 330017 4279951

Actors in Food Grain Supply Chain

Production of

food grains

Household uses Market

(1st Stage)

Market

(Final Stage)

Rice Consumption,

Repayment to land

owner

Seed, waste,

Animal Feed, Sale,

speculated stock

Government,

Trader,

Miller

Government,

Whole seller,

Retailer

Corporate use

Wheat Consumption,

Seed, Animal Feed,

Sale, Repayment

Trader/Miller Whole seller,

Retailer,

Corporate use

(industry)

Maize Sale Trader Corporate use

(animal feed)

Pattern of Farm Households

Farm Holding by Area Size

Total Farm

Holding

Small Medium Large

Marginal Farm

Households (51.75%)

1.00=1.49

acre

1.50-2.49

acre

Total Small

0.05-2.49

2.50-7.49

acre

7.50 +

acre

0.05-0.49

acre

0.50-0.99

acre

15183183

(52.91% of

Total HH)

4247673

(27.97%)

3610131

(23.78%)

2484406

(16.36%)

2470162

(16.27%)

12812372

(84.39%)

2136415

(14.07%)

234396

(1.54%)

Stocking Pattern

PaccaGodowns

KachaGodowns

Tin/Plastic Drams

Bamboo/Cane Basket

Earthen Basket/Jar

Other Containers

Supply and Retention Pattern

Grains Produ

ction

Retentions of Food Grains Stora

ge

Sales

Consu

mp

tion

Given to

land

owner

Paid as

wage

Seed Feed Othe

r

uses

Waste Total

Rice 100% 36.40 8.15 2.05 1.08 0.19 0.64 0.28 48.79 12.00 39.21

Wheat 100% 24.95 4.32 1.79 3.46 0.25 0.36 0.24 35.37 12.51 52.12

Maize 100% 3.07 2.07 0.29 0.02 0.30 0.10 0.06 5.91 0.45 93.64

Consumption Pattern of Cereals

Sl. HIES Proportion

of Rice &

Wheat

(2010)Food Grains 2095-96 2000 2005 2010

1. Rice 464.3 458.5 469.2 416 94%

2. Wheat 33.7 17.2 12.1 26 6%

Marketable and Marketed Supply of rice, wheat and maize

Division

Rice Wheat Maize

Marketable Surplus

Marketed Surplus

Marketable Surplus

Marketed Surplus

Marketable Surplus

Marketed Surplus

Barisal 1164355 891513 15713 12672 2763 2750

Chittagong 2323437 1778987 5673 4575 47944 47714

Dhaka 2318395 1775127 139636 112607 161035 160265

Khulna 2337322 1789619 117660 94885 567836 565120

Mymensing 2122568 1625189 18467 14893 66540 66222

Rajshahi 3101219 2374513 305412 246295 218958 217911

Rangpur 3058984 2342174 267030 215343 1235873 1229962

Sylhet 1348536 1032535 1741 1404 95 95

Bangladesh 17774816 13609657 871332 702674 2301044 2290039

Findings/Recommendations

• Annual stock survey of main food grain is needed

• Individual Stock survey is preferable after harvest is over for more reliable data

• Combination of area and list frame is necessary for Bangladesh

• Import decision should be based on the size of marketed surplus of stock

• Regional food grain supply scenario can be observed though stock analysis

Outline

Part-2: Survey on Private Stock of Food Grain

-Key Issues

1. Sampling Units and Variables

2. Tentative Sampling Scheme

3. Conclusions

Part-2: Survey on Private Stock of Food Grain-Key Issues

SL Sampling Units Main Variable Explanatory

variables

01 Agricultural

Households

Production of grain

Retentions for various

purposes, stock and sales,

Cultivating areas,

storage information

02 Non-agricultural

Households

Purchase of grain

Consumption, sales, stock

Occupation

Income

03 Trader Purchases and Sales volume

and stock

Traders category,

storage capacity

04 Miller Grain milled (volume)

Grain production (volume),

Grain Stock

Milling capacity

05 Industry, Hotel

Restaurant, Catering

Volume and Price of Grain

Purchased and Consumed

Main activities

Sampling Scheme

Sampling Frame: Both list and area frames will be used

Sampling Design:Cluster sampling from HouseholdsSimple Random Sampling for millers

Total number of surveys: 3 (Rice, wheat and maize) + 1 (miller)

Thank You