intersolar presentation
TRANSCRIPT
Future of
Solar + Storage
Jobs
Pari Kasotia, Deputy Director
The Solar Foundation
Intersolar, July 13, 2016
The Solar Foundation
An independent, national nonprofit founded in 1977 and based in Washington, DC.
Our purpose is to increase understanding of solar energy through strategic research and education that transforms markets.
Major programs include:
Solar Jobs Census
CivicPACE
SolSmart
Solar Ready Vets
Visit us at TheSolarFoundation.org
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Agenda
US Solar Jobs
Storage Growth Trends
Solar + Storage Jobs
US Solar Jobs Census
209,000 solar jobs in 2015• 20% growth rate• Installation sector accounts for 57% of
the total solar jobs
Job growth mirrors the growth of the installed capacity
7.45 GW installed in 2015• 19% increase over the 2014 estimate
Improvements in labor efficiencies• 46 jobs per MW in 2011 to 37 jobs per
MW in 2015
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
AddedCapacity(MW)
SolarJobs
208,859 U.S. Solar Jobs in 2015U.S. Solar Capacit y Addit ions & Solar Jobs, 2010 - 2016E
PV+CSPCapacityAdditions SolarJobs
US Solar Jobs and Productivity
Figure 1: Breakdown of Jobs by Sector and Jobs/MW Source: The Solar Foundation
Percent of Jobs JobsMWs
InstalledJobs/MW
2015Jobs/MW
Comps
Residential 63.3% 90,128 2,159 41.75 75.10 (2010)Non-residential 15.2% 21,642 1,069 20.25 75.10 (2010)
Utility-scale 21.5% 30,612 4,2232.92
(adjusted) 4.43 (2012)
Total 100.0% 142,382 7,451
Storage
US Energy Storage Market Growth 2015
221 MW deployed
Market grew by 243%
Front-of-meter or utility segment accounted for 85% of all deployments
By 2020, energy storage market expected to be 1.7 GW in size with $2.5 billion in market value
Source: GTM Research/Energy Storage Association
US Solar + Storage Market
Falling prices and improvements in technology will increase solar + storage penetration
• 10% of new solar commercial customers are expected to combine solar + storage
Storage Deployment Trends (MW)2015 2021
Front of the Meter 187 1061
Behind the Meter 35 1020
Total 221 2,081
Figure 2: Storage Deployment Trends in MWSource: GTM Research/ESA U.S. Energy Storage Monitor
Storage Maturity Continuum
Figure 3: Storage maturity continuum Source: SBC Energy Institute
Solar + Storage: Numerous Benefits
Improve grid reliability
Transmission congestion relief
Demand charges and other peak pricing structures
Climate change resiliency
Net-metering challenges
US Solar + Storage Jobs
Solar plus Storage
Solar PV
Figure 4: The space and the associated battery storage we need to power the US with solar Source: Elon Musk at the Unveiling of Powerwall
Solar + Storage: Projected Job Impact
We analyzed two types of jobs:
• Storage installation
• Storage fueled PV installation jobs
Solar + Storage: Projected Job Impact
27,000 to 30,000 projected new jobs in solar + storage by 2021
Storage labor efficiencies will help drive down costs and stimulate growth
Solar storage is likely to follow the same growth trajectory as solar market
Solar + Storage: Projected Jobs
Solar + Storage Related Deployment Jobs, 2021 (Projected)
Sector
Storage Installation
Jobs
Storage Fueled
Solar Jobs Total
Utility-Scale 122 245 367
Nonresidential 600 1,200 1,800
Residential 8,305 16,609 24,914
Total 9,027 18,054 27,081
Figure 5: Solar + Storage Related Deployment Jobs Source: The Solar Foundation
Solar + Storage:Job Impact Methodology
Storage Deployment Jobs, 2021 (Projected)
A B C D E
Sector
Storage MWs
deployed [1]
Solar related
storage deployed
Storage jobs per
MW Storage Jobs
Percent MWs
Utility-Scale 1,061 10% 106 1.15 122
Nonresidential 440 40% 176 3.41 600
Residential 580 90% 522 15.91 8,305
Total 2,081 39% 804 9,027
[1] Total and utility-scale projections: U.S. Energy Storage Monitor: Q2 Review, GTM Research/ESA
Figure 6: Projected Storage Deployment Jobs by 2021Source: The Solar Foundation
Solar + Storage: Projected Job Impact Methodology
Storage Fueled PV Installation Jobs, 2021 (Projected)
A B C D E F G
Sector
Solar related
storage MWs
deployed
Equivalent
amount of
solar
installation
Solar MWs fueled by
storage
Solar Jobs
per MW
Additional
Solar Jobs
Factor MWs Percent MWs
Utility-Scale 106 1.85 196 50% 98 2.5 245
Nonresidential 176 0.91 160 50% 80 15 1,200
Residential 522 1.82 949 50% 475 35 16,609
Total 804 18,054Figure 7: Projected Storage fueled solar jobs
Source: The Solar Foundation
Solar + Storage: Potential Economic and Job Impact
Tremendous economic opportunity Market value of the storage industry expected to reach $2.5
billion by the end of the decade
New job growth in all sectors - R&D, manufacturing, and service-based jobs
Economic activity from sale of goods and services-indirect and induced effects
Solar + Storage: Potential Economic and Job Impact
Significant promise for low-to-moderate income households • Help reduce or completely eliminate the electricity cost burden
Savings through resiliency benefits• Keep the lights on when needed.
• Alternative to emergency diesel generators in case of power outages
Questions for Further Analysis
What is the likely solar + storage share of the overall electric grid storage market and how will it change?
How can we make the solar + storage market more attractive?
What is the labor required to install storage? What size crew is needed to install storage for what length of time under various scenarios? How is this changing?
What is the right mix of storage and solar capacity? How does it vary for the three sectors under various scenarios?
What can the U.S. learn from other countries?
Solar plus Storage: Growth Factors
Improvements in cost and technology• Continuous decline in the cost of energy storage• Continuous improvements in the technology itself as well as
technology compatibility.
Continued financial and policy support• Currently, storage paired with solar qualifies for ITC• More clarification from ITC is needed
Price of electricity and continued shift towards clean energy• Price on carbon• Clean Power Plan
Solar plus Storage: Future Outlook
Continued interest from utility companies on solar plus storage
Market disruptor for utilities in terms of demand and revenue
Creation of new business models among utilities and other private sector drivers
Solar plus Storage: Future Outlook
Technology
Markets
Utilities
Regulators
Consumers
Figure 7: Interplay of Storage Driving forces
Thank You
Contact us at:
Pari Kasotia, MBA, PMP, CSM
Deputy Director
202-846-7508
TheSolarFoundation.org
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Facebook.com/TheSolarFoundation
@solarfound