intraday intermarket - theo trade€¦ · inter -market technical analysis for october 8, 2018 1...

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1 Inter-market Technical Analysis for October 8, 2018

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Well THAT woke us up! Volatility gently returned to the market with a sharp expected

pullback in stocks and Oil while the Dollar climbed higher and Treasuries fell lower.

Note the updates from this week as the dust - and volatility - settles into new levels.

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10-Year Treasury Notes ($UST – Price)

Weekly

We're again seeing Bonds at the 2018 lows near 118 which is our target and focal point for the

week(s) ahead - BUT we didn't see the bounce off this level.

The downtrend continued with a breakdown beneath 118, sending the 10-year note Yield

above the key 3.0% level (our focal point).

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Daily

The ongoing downtrend continues with Bonds - so far - as potential support just above the 118

index level FAILED to hold price for a bounce. Now use 117 it as your critical pivot this week

playing a bounce up away from it (note the reversal candles) or additional selling pressure

should sellers crack price under this key floor of support to continue the downtrend in motion.

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US S&P 500 ($SPX)

Weekly

Fighting/fading this ongoing stock market trend (calling tops) has been extremely harmful to

trading accounts so we won't do that but will continue to move cautiously into a surging bull

market that is taking out the stop-losses of the bears/short-sellers as it extends higher.

However, our "pullback plan" was successful as October began with a volatile (expected) start.

Note the weekly chart pathway lower (deeper pullback) and balance that with the daily chart.

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Daily:

We still don't have a fancy plan here other than to continue protecting yourself as aggressive

traders take advantage of the bullishness and new 52-week highs in multiple trending stocks.

A pullback against the weekly and daily Bollinger Bands with respect to the 2,900 target and

then the 50 day EMA into 2,880 took price as expected toward our target of the rising 50 day

EMA. Protection is key - not aggressive bullishness. We will expect at least a SHORT-TERM

BOUNCE up away from the 2,880 index level with respect to 2,900 but will play aggressively if

beneath 2,880 then 2,850 (toward 2,800).

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Gold

Weekly

We've learned NOT to step in front of Gold and commodities in big trending moves in either

direction; stay out or get ready for an aggressive bounce play (risk seekers) off $1,200 though

the bounce play was good for only two week so far as price now closed back beneath our level.

There's no major change in the plan - referencing $1,200 - until gold moves away from this

spot.

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Daily

We had a continued liquidation/breakdown event beneath $1,310 that collapsed Gold toward

$1,290 and then the recent reaction resulted in an extended collapse toward $1,250's target

and beneath all that toward our weekly $1,220 target beneath $1,200 with a rally/aggressive

bounce off $1,180 triggering last week

Gold remains in a sideways trading range and is likely best left alone in favor of other

opportunities in other markets.

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WTI Crude Oil ($WTIC)

Weekly

We were correct on the Oil pullback back down away from the $75.00 initially and we'll keep

watching the DAILY chart for clues from here as a logical yet strong bounce continues off the

$64.00 confluence pivot toward and now ABOVE $75 at new highs as the ongoing

uptrend/bull market continues along with stocks. Last week did give a logical sell-swing.

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Daily

Note where we are on the WEEKLY CHART (RANGE) and frame your next trade(s) in terms of

the departure - off support/target - into $76.00 as price ended last week with a sell-swing

along with stocks back toward the 20 day EMA just above $73.00.

We're at the TOP of our range and thus don't have clear plans for Oil except to trade the

immediate departure from $75.00 this week as highlighted as the broader range within a bull

market continues.

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US Dollar Index ($USD)

Weekly

We're watching the Dollar Index strengthen but stabilize into a trading range with divergences

on the Daily Chart. Focus on the DAILY levels and note the SELL SWING PATHWAY that

develops away from the current $96.50 level toward our Daily Chart Pivot and weekly level

above 94.00 which gives us a BULLISH BOUNCE THESIS off 94.00 that is in danger of failing.

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Daily

We don't fight trends, and this is an over-extended one; yet Gold snapped a downswing while

the Dollar broke a similarly strong uptrend. We see the Dollar into our key support/bounce

target with a rally developing.

We'll look to trade the immediate bounce above 94.00 or an extended sell-swing beneath

94.00 as highlighted with respect to the critical support level.

BREAKDOWN BEARISH beneath it and otherwise sideways/bounce bullish/neutral above it.

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Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

intraday intermarket - theo trade€¦ · inter -market technical analysis for october 8, 2018 1...

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