intro multi criteria
TRANSCRIPT
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Outline
Introduction and Background
Definitions
What is multi criteria evaluation?
How and when is it useful?
How does it work? Case study to show
how it is implemented Pros and cons of the method.
Why should we use it?
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Multi Criteria Analysis
Multi Criteria Decision Evaluation (MCDE)
Multi Criteria Preference Analysis
Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)
Multi Objective Evaluation
These methods are essentially one and the
same!
MCDE= Multi-criteria decision evaluation is primarilyconcerned with how to combine the information from several
criteria to form a single index of evaluation
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Introduction
Engineering is a scarce resource:Identifying suitability for
Where to build a dam
Water flow
Mountainous?
Where to place a structure
Costs
Access
Greatest need
Criteria can be based on human or physical
geography factors
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History Background
Identifiying the Problems,
Constructing the Preferences,
Evaluating the Alternatives,
Determining the Best Alternatives.(Simon 1977; Keendy and Raiffa 1993; Kleindorfer,Kunreuther, and Schoemaker
1993)The historical origins of MADMcorrespondence between
Nicolas Bernoulli (1687
1759). Pierre Remond de Montmort(16781719), discussing the St. Petersburg paradox.
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Historical
Developmentof MADM
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Historical
Developmentof MODM
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DefinitionsDecisions: a choice between alternatives
Criterion: some basis for a decision. Two main classes:
Factor: enhancesor detractsfrom the suitability of a land
use alternative (e.g. distance from a road)
Constraint: limitsthe alternatives
Goal or target: some characteristic that the solution mustpossess (a positive constraint)
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The Basics
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What is it used for?
Decision making
Dispute resolution
Water resource management Sustainable development
etc
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Principles of MCDM
Methodology:
1. Determine criteria
(factors/constraints) to be included
2. Determining the weights for each
factor
3. Sensitivity analysis of results
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1stStep: Determine the
criteria to be included
Criteria determine the alternatives
Oversimplification of the decision problem couldlead to too few criteria being used
Using a large number of criteria reduces the
influence of any one criteria
Often proxies must be used since the criteria of
interest may not be determinable
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Example: Case study of asuitable dam and reservoir
siteCriteria used:RiverUrbanForestAccumulated water flowExisting reservoirWatershed boundaryCityHydraulic head
Undulation
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Determine the weights
A decision is the result of a comparison of one
or more alternatives with respect to one or more
criteria that we consider relevant for the task at
hand.
Among the relevant criteria we consider some as
more important and some as less important;
this is equivalent to assigning weights to the
criterion according to their relative importance.
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2nd stage, assigning weights
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Sensitivity analysis
sensitivity analysis: vary the
scores/weights of the factors to determine
the sensitivity of the solution to minor
changes
Choice of criteria (e.g. why included?)
Assesses the reliability of data: how stable is
the final result?
Choice for weighting factors is subjective
Will the overall solution change if you use
other weighing factors?
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MCDMGoods and Bads
Goods:
Dynamic problems
strongly simplified into a
linear modelStatic, lacks the time
dimension
Controversial method
too subjective?
Bads:
Gives a structured and
traceable analysis.
Possibility to use different
evaluation factors makes it
a good tool for discussion.
Copes with large amountsof information.
It works!
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