introdução a teoria da decisão
TRANSCRIPT
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INTRODUO TEORIA DA DECISO
AUTOR: LUS FERNANDO SCHUARTZ
ROTEIRO DE CURSO2010.1
3 EDIO
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SumrioIntroduo Teoria da Deciso
1. INTRODUO ............................................................................................................................................................................ 04
2. AULA 1 - O DIREITO E AS SUAS CONSEQNCIAS .......................................................................................................................... 05
3. AULA 2 - DISCUSSO DO CASO GROOT BOOM ............................................................................................................................. 18
4. AULA 3 - ELEMENTOS DE TEORIA DA DECISO .............................................................................................................................. 33
5. AULAS 4-5 - DECISES SOB INCERTEZA ........................................................................................................................................ 37
6. AULAS 6-7 - DA DECISO INDIVIDUAL DECISO INTERATIVA ....................................................................................................... 43
7. AULAS 8-9 - SOLUO DE JOGOS NA FORMA NORMAL: DOMINNCIA E EQUILBRIO DE NASH ........................................................... 51
8. AULA 10 .............................................................................................................................................................................. 56
9. AULA 11. EQUILBRIO DE NASH PERFEITO EM SUBJOGOS .............................................................................................................. 80
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INTRODUO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATGICO
-
8FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuO TEORIa Da DEcIsO
8FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUO TEORIA DA DECISO
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"NPSPTJEBEFEBKVTUJBQSFKVEJDBPTNFSDBEPTEFDSEJUPEFUSTGPSNBTEJGFSFOUFT1SJNFJSPFMBUPSOBBQFSTQFDUJWBEFVNBBPOBKVTUJBNVJUPNFOPTBNFBBEPSBEPQPOUPEFWJTUBEPEFWFEPS%FGBUPBMHVOTCBODPTBSHVNFOUBNRVFIEFWFEPSFTRVFQSFGFSFNRVFBFYFDVPEBEWJEBTFKBGFJUBOBKVTUJBQPJTFMFTTBCFNRVFJTTPJSBMPOHBSPQSB[PQBSBQBHBNFOUP.FTNPQBSBQFRVFOPTEFWFEPSFTBQFSTQFDUJWBEFDPCSBOBKVEJDJBMEFVNBEWJEBNFOPTBNFBBEPSBEPRVFTVBJODMVTPFNVNEPTDBEBTUSPTOFHBUJWPTSFHVMBSNFOUFDPOTVMUBEPTQPSDSFEPSFTFDPNFSDJBOUFT0VTFKBPTCBODPTBDSFEJUBNRVFQBSBFNQSTUJNPTOPNFSDBEPEFWBSFKPDBEBTUSPTOFHBUJWPTDPNB4FSBTBFP41$TPNBJTFGFUJWPTFNHBSBOUJSPQBHBNFOUPEFEWJEBTEPRVFPTUSJCVOBJT
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INTRODUO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATGICO
-
9FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuO TEORIa Da DEcIsO
9FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUO TEORIA DA DECISO
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"QSPUFPMFHBMDPODFEJEBBPTDSFEPSFTOP#SBTJMCBTFBEBFNMFJTTJNJMBSFTTRVFSFHVMBNFOUBNPNFSDBEPEFDSEJUPFNPVUSPTQBTFTMBUJOPBNFSJDBOPTFFVSPQFVTRVFUBNCNBEPUBNPBTTJNDIBNBEPTJTUFNBGSBODTEFDJWJMMBX&OUSFWJTUBTDPNCBODPTNPTUSBSBNRVFBQFTBSEFDSUJDBTBBMHVOTBTQFDUPTEFTTBMFHJTMBPTVCTUBOUJWBoDPNPQPSFYFNQMPBMFJEBTGBMODJBTBRVFTUPEPBOBUPDJTNPFUDoFMFTBBWBMJBNEFGPSNBSFMBUJWBNFOUFQPTJUJWBOBNFEJEBFNRVFFMBFTUBCFMFDFDMBSBNFOUFDPNPPTDPOUSBUPTEFWFNTFS SFEJHJEPTDPNPDPOTUJUVJSHBSBOUJBTRVFUJQPTEFQSPDFEJNFOUPTTFHVJSPQBQFMEPTKV[FTFNDBEBQBTTPEFVNQSPDFTTPEFSFDVQFSBPEFFNQSTUJNPFUDBMFHJTMBPQSPDFTTVBMQFSDFCJEBDPNPNVJUPGBWPSWFMBPTEFWFEPSFTFFTQFDJBMNFOUFBTVBBQMJDBPQFMPKVEJDJSJPRVFFMFTSFTQPOTBCJMJ[BNQFMBGSBDBQSPUFPBPDSFEPSOP#SBTJM
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INTRODUO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATGICO
-
10FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuO TEORIa Da DEcIsO
10FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUO TEORIA DA DECISO
'(7%*3&*503*0
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0ARA DISPUTAS ENVOLVENDOVALORESACIMADE SALRIOS MNIMOSA TAXAMARGINAL PARA OSVALORES ACIMA DESSE TOTALCAIPARA
INTRODUO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATGICO
-
11FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuO TEORIa Da DEcIsO
11FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUO TEORIA DA DECISO
'(7%*3&*503*0
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INTRODUO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATGICO
-
12FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuO TEORIa Da DEcIsO
12FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUO TEORIA DA DECISO
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"QSPQPSPEFNBHJTUSBEPTRVFGBWPSFDFNBBMUFSOBUJWB#iPKVJ[UFNQBQFMTPDJBMBDVNQSJSFBCVTDBEBKVTUJBTPDJBMKVTUJmDBEFDJTFTRVFWJPMFNPTDPOUSBUPTwOBRVFTUPBDJNBBQSFTFOUBEBUBNCNWBSJBEFBDPSEPDPNBSFBEPEJSFJUPBRVFPDBTPTFSFGFSFTFOEPNBJTBMUBFNMJUHJPTRVFFOWPMWFNPNFJPBNCJFOUFEJSFJUPTEPDPOTVNJEPSSFHVMBPEFTFSWJPTQCMJDPTRVFTUFTUSBCBMIJTUBTFEFQSFWJEODJBTPDJBM5BCFMB1PSPVUSPMBEPPTNBHJTUSBEPTTPJODMJOBEPTBGBWPSFDFSBPQP"iPTDPOUSBUPTEFWFNTFSTFNQSFSFTQFJUBEPTJOEFQFOEFOUFNFOUFEFTVBTSFQFSDVTTFTTPDJBJTwRVBOEPPMJUHJPFOWPMWFRVFTUFTDPNFSDJBJTEFDSEJUPFJORVJMJOBUP/PUFTFRVFFTTFFTTFODJBMNFOUFPNFTNPQBESPPCTFSWBEPOB5BCFMBQBSBBGSFRODJBDPNRVFPTKVJ[FTJEFOUJmDBNBTEFDJTFTKVEJDJBJTDPNPTFOEPiQPMJUJ[BEBTw0RVFQBSFDFSFMFWBOUFQBSBBBOMJTFFTQFDmDBEFTUFUFYUPBQSPQPSPNVJUPNBJTBMUBEFKVJ[FTRVFTFJODMJOBNQFMBQPTJP#FNEJTQVUBTFOWPMWFOEPUSBOTBFTEFDSEJUPEPRVFOPTDBTPTRVFFOWPMWFNUSBOTBFTDPNFSDJBJTFNHFSBM
INTRODUO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATGICO
-
13FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuO TEORIa Da DEcIsO
13FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUO TEORIA DA DECISO
'(7%*3&*503*0
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"TTJNOPIRVBMRVFSJODPNQBUJCJMJEBEFFOUSFBJEJBEFPCFEJODJBDPNPQSPNPPFPDBSUFSiEFPOUPMHJDPwEBBQMJDBPEFOPSNBTKVSEJDBTRVFBUSBEJPEPQFOTBNFOUPKVSEJDPWDPNPVNBFYJHODJBEPJEFBMEF&TUBEPEF%JSFJUP"PDPOUSSJPNVJUBTWF[FTPSHPKVEJDBOUFEFQFOEFSEFVNBBOMJTFEBTQPTTWFJTDPOTFRODJBTEFDBEBDVSTPEFDJTSJPQBSBJEFOUJmDBSPRVFBBQMJDBPEP%JSFJUPFYJHFOPDBTPDPNPPFYFNQMPEBMJCFSEBEFEFFYQSFTTPUPSOBFWJEFOUF
&TTBTDPOTUBUBFTTPBJOEBNBJTQFSTVBTJWBTRVBOEPWSJBTOPSNBTJODJEJSFNTPCSFPDBTP)DFSUBTSFMBFTEFJOUFSEFQFOEODJBOPTFTUBEPTEFDPJTBTEFPOUJDBNFOUFDBSBDUFSJ[BEPTQPSQSJODQJPTKVSEJDPTRVFTQPEFNTFSJEFOUJmDBEBTFEFWJEBNFOUFSFTPMWJEBTQPSNFJPEBBOMJTFEBTTVBTQPTTWFJTDPOTFRODJBT/BQSUJDBBQSPNPPEBmOBMJEBEFTVCKBDFOUFBVNQSJODQJPQPEFJOUFSGFSJSOBQSPNPPEBmOBMJEBEFEFPVUSP
04VQSFNP5SJCVOBM'FEFSBMTFWJVEJBOUFEFFWJEFOUFRVFTUPEFJOUFSEFQFOEODJBOPKVMHBNFOUPEP3FDVSTP&YUSBPSEJOSJPO410&TUBEPEF4P1BVMPBSHVNFOUBWBRVFBQBSUJSEB$POTUJUVJPEFP.JOJTUSJP1CMJDPTPNFOUFQPEFSJBFYFSDFSiGVOFTDPNQBUWFJTDPNBTVBmOBMJEBEFwRVBMTFKBiBEFGFTBEBPSEFNKVSEJDBEPSFHJNFEFNPDSUJDPFEPTJOUFSFTTFTJOEJWJEVBJTJOEJTQPOWFJTwOPTUFSNPTEPTBSUTF
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mOBMJEBEFTFOEPMIFWFEBEBBSFQSFTFOUBPKVEJDJBMFBDPOTVMUPSJBKVSEJDBEFFOUJEBEFTQCMJDBT
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"SUP-99*7P&TUBEPQSFTUBSBTTJTUODJBKVSEJDBJOUFHSBMFHSBUVJUBBPTRVFDPNQSPWBSFNJOTVmDJODJBEFSFDVSTPT"SU"%FGFOTPSJB1CMJDBJOTUJUVJPFTTFODJBMGVOPKVSJTEJDJPOBMEP&TUB
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/PEFDPSSFSEPTEFCBUFTFOUSFPT.JOJTUSPTPRVFQPEFSJBUFSTJEPBQFOBTVNBJOUFSQSFUBPEFFYQSFTTFTDPNPiGVOFTDPNQBUWFJTDPNTVBmOBMJEBEFwiJOUFSFTTFTTPDJBJTFJOEJWJEVBJTJOEJTQPOWFJTwPVBJOEBEBTOPSNBTDPOTUJUVDJPOBJTRVFEFMJNJUBNBDPNQFUODJBEB%FGFOTPSJB1CMJDBFEP.JOJTUSJP1CMJDPUPSOPVTFVNBJOWFTUJHBPBDFSDBEBTQPTTWFJTDPOTFRODJBTEBOPSFDFQPEPBSUEP$11"NVEBOBEFFOGPRVFmDPVQBSUJDVMBSNFOUFFWJEFOUFOP7PUPEP.JOJTUSP/SJEB4JMWFJSBRVFBTTFWFSPV
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3FEFTDSFWFOEPFTUFSBDJPDOJPOPTUFSNPTEFTFOWPMWJEPTBPMPOHPEPQSFTFOUFFOTBJPQPEFSBNPTEJ[FSRVFBEFDJTPQFMBOPSFDFQPEPBSUEP$11TFSJBVNiFMPwFNVNBDBEFJBDBVTBMRVFSFTVMUBSJBFNVNFTUBEPEFDPJTBTOPRVBMPTQPCSFTOPUFSJBNPTFVBDFTTPKVTUJBHBSBOUJEPoVNiNVOEPQPTTWFMwDPOUSSJPBPEJTQPTUPOPBSUP-99*7EB$POTUJUVJP"TTJNBPCFEJODJBFTUSJUBBPTBSUTFJNQFEJSJBBQSPNPPEFmOTEFPOUJDBNFOUFDBSBDUFSJ[BEPTQFMB$POTUJUVJP#SBTJMFJSB/FTUFDBTPQPSUBOUPPBSHVNFOUPDPOTFRFODJBMJTUBEP.JOJTUSP/SJEB4JMWFJSBFTDMBSFDFVBDPOFYPTJTUFNUJDBFOUSFBTOPSNBTRVFJOTUJUVFNP.JOJTUSJP1CMJDPEFVNMBEPFPQSJODQJPDPOTUJUVDJPOBMEBQSFTUBPEFBTTJTUODJBKVSEJDBHSBUVJUBBPTRVFEFMBOFDFTTJUBSFNEFPVUSP
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"MNEJTTPFNDBTPTEFJOUFSEFQFOEODJBFOUSFPTFTUBEPTEFDPJTBTEFPOUJDBNFOUFDBSBDUFSJ[BEPTQPSOPSNBTEJTUJOUBTPTBSHVNFOUPTDPOTFRFODJBMJTUBTQPEFNGVODJPOBSDPNPBSHVNFOUPT TJTUFNUJDPT iDPOUFYUVBJTwOPT UFSNPTEFWJMB
QPJT USBUBNEB DPNCJOBPUFMFPMHJDBFOUSFPVUSPTQSJODQJPTFBOPSNBPCKFUPEFJOUFSQSFUBP"OBMJTBSBTDPOTFRODJBTEBBQMJDBPEFVNBOPSNBNPTUSBDPNPFMBEFWFTFSJOUFSQSFUBEBEFGPSNBTJTUFNUJDBFNSFMBPTEFNBJTOPSNBTEPPSEFOBNFOUPDPNPOPDBTPEBJNVOJEBEFEPMJWSPFMFUSOJDP"QPMNJDBFNUPSOPEFTVBUSJCVUBPTFGVOEBOBJOUFSQSFUBPEPBSUJHP7*E
POEFTFFODPOUSBUFYUVBMNFOUFBFYQSFTTPiJNVOJEBEFEPMJWSPw.BTQPTTWFMBSHVNFOUBSFNGBWPSEBJNVOJEBEFEPMJWSPFMFUSOJDPDPOFDUBOEPFTUBOPSNBDPNPFTUBEPEFDPJTBTDVKBDPOTFDVPBMJCFSEBEFEFNBOJGFTUBPEPUPSOBPCSJHBUSJBUSJCVUBSFTUBTPCSBTMFWBSJBBVNNVOEPFGFUJWPOPRVBMBTQFTTPBTOPEFTGSVUBNEFQMFOBMJCFSEBEFEFNBOJGFTUBPEFQFOTBNFOUP/FTUFDBTPPRVFFTUFNKPHPNFOPTBiPCFEJODJBFTUSJUBwKRVFBTJNQMFTUSJCVUBPEPMJWSPFMFUSOJDPOPJNQFEJSEJSFUBNFOUFBNBOJGFTUBPEPQFOTBNFOUP
FNBJTBQSPNPPEBMJCFSEBEFEFQFOTBNFOUP"SFMBPTJTUFNUJDBFOUSFBTEVBTOPSNBTFNKPHPTmDBFWJEFOUFOBDPOTJEFSBPEFDPOTFRODJBT
"DMBTTJmDBPFBIJFSBSRVJ[BPEFWJMBTPQFSUJOFOUFTOBNFEJEBFNRVFBSHVNFOUPTOPJOTUJUVDJPOBJTEFWFNQPTTVJSEFGBUPVNQFTPSFMBUJWPNFOPSOBKVTUJmDBPEFEFDJTFTKVEJDJBJT.BTOPTFQPEFBmSNBSRVFUPEPFRVBMRVFSBSHVNFOUPRVFBQFMFBDPOTFRODJBTPVFGFJUPTQSUJDPTEFVNDVSTPEFDJTSJPWTFSOFDFTTBSJBNFOUFOPJOTUJUVDJPOBMQSFDJTPEFTGB[FSBJEFOUJEBEFFOUSFiBSHVNFOUPTOPJOTUJUVDJPOBJTwFiBSHVNFOUPTQSUJDPTw
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