introducing tools for emissions...

Training on Quantifying Urban Transport GHG Emissions, 18 - 19 May 2014

Urda Eichhorst

Introducing tools for emissions quantification

Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014

What tools….

Methodologies / Guides

Databases / Statistics

Transport models

Spreadsheet tools Emission models

Why do you quantify emissions?

18/05/2014

Drivers for emissions quantifications

Project monitoring

GHG inventory

UNFCCC NatComs

Policy evaluation

Scenario development

…

Accessing Climate Finance

What we can do with models and tools

Source: TREMOD/Ifeu, 2012 18/05/2014

German transport inventory (TREMOD) GHG inventory

Total German transport CO2 emissions

NOx emissions

Linking emissions calculation with transport demand data at street level (HBEFA)

Identify emission hot spots

Sources: SenStadt Berlin, HLUG, Infras.

Berlin NOx emissions 2002

Switzerland (freight)

Source: Öko-Institut 18/05/2014

GHG emissions by mode and fuel

Baseline scenario: GHG emissions of passenger cars reduced by 31 million tons (20%) – share is reduced from nearly 90% to about 85%.

Climate protection scenario: GHG emissions of passenger cars reduced by 50% – share decreases to 80%. Highest increase of aviation share: from 7% to 14%.

Renewbility – National Scenario Germany Mitigation Scenarios

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

baseline 2005

baseline 2030

scenario 2030

GHG

emission

s [m t/a]

avia<on

rail

bus

PC-‐electric

PC-‐diesel

PC-‐gasoline

GH

G em

issions (Mt/year)

Baseline BAU Climate protection

Source: ITDP 18/05/2014

E.g. Guangzhou BRT, calculated with TEEMP

Assessing emission reductions by BRT Project evaluation

Estimated CO2 emission reduction of 86,000 tons annually!


Selected emission tools for transport

TREMOD

HBEFA TREMOVE COPERT

COPERT

TEEMP

TEEMP

MoMo

CHEF

MOVES

GHG Protocol

CDM

LEAP

FEEI

IVE

TRANUS

CDM

SYBIL

IVE

TRANS-TOOLS

GHG Protocol

IVE

Roadmap Model

MOBILEV

AIM

How to select the right tool?


How to find a suitable model or approach?

What is the purpose of your GHG quantification?

What is the scope of analysis?

Which types of emissions to analyse?

What transport data is needed and available?

What technical capacity is needed?

What is the purpose of my GHG quantification?

•  I want to understand and monitor the main emission sources and polluting (sub-)sectors.

•  I want to understand the future trends and where emissions will come from in the future.

•  I want to select the most effective mitigation actions.

•  I want to monitor the impact of a policy interven- tion, an (investment) programme or a project

è Is the tool able to compute future developments/scenarios or only the status quo?

Inventory

Scenario

Scenario

Impact Assessment

Impa

ct St

atus


How to Find a Suitable Model?

ü What is the purpose of your GHG quantification?





What is the scope of the analysis?

•  Country

•  City or region

•  Corridor or street

•  Total population

•  Companies or organisations

•  Individuals

•  Passenger

•  Freight

•  Road / Rail / Air

Mod

e A

rea

scal

e sc

ope

Emitt

er

scop

e

è Select a model that covers the desired scope. How detailed are the required input data for the ideal scope? Will I be able to attain them?

Top-down approach

•  Conversion factors based on energy content

Bottom-up

approach

Comparison

Energy based

Traffic activity based

Average values •  Ø VKT •  Ø emission

factors

Different aggregation levels are possible

Leve

l of d

etai

l Consistency of GHG quantification

Detailed values •  VKT •  emission factors

Con

sist

ency

Source: INFRAS

Soiurce: Deutsche Bahn AG, 2014 18/05/2014

Example: individual emitter

From Frankfurt to Leipzig…

UmweltMobilCheck – Passenger Transport

Note: Low level of rail emissions is due to high share of nuclear energy in electricity mix of German rail.


Example: Freight routes

Eco TransIT (Ifeu, INFRAS) – Freight Transport

§  Compares energy consumption and emissions of freight transported by rail, road, ship and aircraft

§  Takes into account the intermodal transport services and the different technical standards of vehicles

www.ecotransit.org



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Greenhouse Gases (relevant for transport)

•  Carbon dioxide (CO2)

•  Nitrous oxide (N2O) and Methane (CH4)

Regulated Pollutants

•  Particulate Matter (PM10, PM2.5)

•  Hydrocarbons

•  Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)

•  Carbon Monoxide (CO) and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)

Cold-start?

Evaporation?

Mobile Air Con.?

Up-stream?

Construction?



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Pre-selection


Pre-selection Additional points to consider

•  What data are included in the transport model and do they fit my national context, e.g. European vs American fleet data?

•  Can the tool be adapted by the user, e.g. input “personlised” fleet data?

•  Which measures can be evaluated by the tool itself (e.g. changes in fleet composition)? Which external input data is required to model emission impacts of different measures, e.g. congestion effects?

•  If street level-data is desired: Can the emission model easily be combined with travel demand models? (data formats)

•  Is the tool freely available or does the tool need to be purchased? Does it involve a package with consultancy services of a company?

è Some expert advice might be necessary to choose the best fitting tool and understand related data requirements


Selected tools and their applications

Inventory Scenario National City Street HBEFA x x (CH, SE) x x MOVES x x x x MOBILEV x x x x TEEMP x x GHG Protocol

x Policies & Actions Standard

x

CDM x x PHEM x x IVE x x x x


Selected tools and their applications Inventory Scenario National City Street

HBEFA x x (CH, SE) x x MOVES x x x x MOBILEV x x x x GHG Protocol

x Policies & Actions Standard

x

TEEMP x x PHEM x x IVE x x x x COPERT x x TREMOVE x x TREMOD x x x MoMo x x LEAP x x



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Pre-selection


What transport data is available?

•  Is a transport demand model available for the city? Which parts of the city?

o  If yes à Linkwise modeling is possible ….

o  If no à aggregated calculation at chosen scale

•  Is data that is available also accessible (e.g. vehicle registration data)?

•  Is the data up-to-date?

•  Are local or national emission factors available? What does it mean if international default values are used instead?

•  Is additional data gathering necessary? Is it possible?

è  Decide on an adequate, i.e. feasible and meaningful level of detail for the required purpose

è  National level can support e.g. development of national emission factors, data consistency, sharing and management


What transport data is available? Data items for bottom-up calculations

ASIF parameter Data requirement

Activity

•  Total fuel use •  Annual vehicle kilometers travelled by vehicle class •  Tonnes of freight moved •  Passenger numbers •  Annual kms or fuel use by locomotive type

Structure •  Composition of vehicle fleets •  Modal shares

Intensity

•  Fuel consumed per passenger km or tonne km by detailed vehicle class or locomotive type for rail

•  Information on occupancy / load rates

Fuels

•  The carbon content of the fuels used (i.e. petrol, diesel and CNG for road transport; diesel or electricity for rail).

Source: Gorham, 2003 18/05/2014

Data sources

Parameter Measurement

Ideal Second best Common approach

A •  Household Travel surveys •  Origin-destination surveys •  Commodity flow surveys

•  Odometer readings •  traffic counts + occupancy

observations + assumptions

•  Fuel sales ÷ (assumed on-road fuel economy * number of vehicles)

S •  Household travel surveys •  Commodity flow surveys

•  VKT + occupancy observations by mode

•  Flat assumptions for modes of secondary interest

I •  On-road measurements of

fuel consumed + occupancy/load-factor

•  observations or surveys

•  New car fuel economy test ratings + assumed or tested

•  deterioration rates + occupancy/load-factor observations, surveys,

•  or assumptions

•  Fuel sales ÷ (VKT per vehicles * number of vehicles)

F •  On-road measurements of

pollutant emissions •  Emissions models, with

locally derived emissions factors and

•  drive cycles

•  Emissions models, with borrowed emissions factors and drive

•  cycles

Monitoring of GHG emissions on city level

Impact of measures Avoid Shift Improve Fluel

Travel activity Fleet + traffic flow Fuel types

Handbook on Emission Factors China

VKT Fleet composition

Traffic Situations

Fuel types

Average values

Disaggregated

Average values

Disaggregated

Average values

Disaggregated

Average values

Disaggregated

Modal shift measure

Reduction stop+ go

New fleet Electric vehicles

Objectives of GHG emission monitoring influences the level of detail for input data

Source: Schmied/INFRAS, 2014



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Pre-selection



•  Are local capacities sufficient to quantify emissions with the chosen approach?

o  Yes à excellent – let`s get started!

o  No à Different options:

o  Develop capacities of local staff and clear guidance

o  Subcontract external consultants to quantify emissions

o  (Choose easier quantification approach)



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Pre-selection

Final selection


Take aways

•  Many models and approaches exist, but some adaptation will in most cases by necessary

•  Data quality is more significant than model choice!

•  A good model without good data is like a chef`s recipe with poor ingredients – the outcome will be bland

•  Transparency on assumptions, shortcomings and uncertainties is important for others to interpret model/tool results carefully

•  Quantification approach and methodology should be clear, before data collection and setting up data collection systems, in order to collect all the necessary data and in the necessary format for the approach chosen

•  The most basic data requirements are readily achievable in most circumstances – a stepwise approach is possible

Thank you for your attention! Urda Eichhorst

Project Manager

Low Carbon Transport Development

[email protected]

18/05/2014


Example: individual emitter

From Frankfurt to Leipzig…

UmweltMobilCheck – Passenger Transport

Note: Low level of rail emissions is due to high share of nuclear energy in electricity mix of German rail.

Transport demand and emisison model

Transport system

Link type, volume/time

Emission model

Fleet

Traffic situation

Emission factor

Vehicle km

Emissions

Emissions = VehKm x factor

Source: PTV

Components of bottom-up models

Vehicles fleet

è Fleet model based on fleet composition and (annual) mileages

Emission factors

è  Database on fuel consumption or emissions by kilo- meter travelled for various types of vehicles

Travel activity data

è Travel survey data or travel demand models Vario

us le

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