CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

The interaction between population growth and

economic development is one of the greatest concerns to

development economists and economic policy makers. (United

Nations, 1990). Theoretical developments on population

growth, structure and composition seem to have been inspired

all through history by underlying demographic situation as

well as the changing socio-economic structure. The wide

range of factors obscuring the true relationship between

conditions and fertility behaviour such as price of child

care, aspirations for children. vis-a-vis material goods and

services. Some of the basic components such as family

income, time, opportunity costs of child bearing and

rearing, son preference, old age security motivation,

women's participation in employment and contraception

highlight their relative importance towards fertility

(Gulathi, S.C. 1989). Socioeconomic factors have been much

more important than program input variables in explaining

variation in fertility behaviour and family planning use.

Moreover, these factors have more influenced at individual

and household level on fertility and other activities than

at macro level. The household economy which when aggregated

with multitudes of others of its type will produce the

national economy reflecting the same characteristics as much

large scale (Caldwel, J.C. 1982).

Growth of Population in Tamilnaau

According to 1991 census, India's population is

84.4 crores and it was 36.1 crore in 1951. The growth rate

between 1981 and 1991 is 23.50. The rate of decline between

is higher in 1981-91 than 1971-81. The population of

Tamilnadu has increased from 3.01 crores in 1951 to 5.56

crores in 1991. The decadal increase during 1981-91 is 14.94

percent (Table 3.6A). Compared to other Indian States, the

population growth in Tamil nadu is one of the lowest in

India. From 1981 to 1991 the growth rate in Tamilnadu

decline drastically. Among the four southern states, there

were marginal to substantial differences not only in CBR but

also in total fertility rate (TFR). For recent years, Kerala

has shown the lowest fertility, closely followed by

Tamilnadu. In case of Tamilnadu, between 1972 and 1984 the

TFR for urban areas remained constant at 3.0 and for rural

areas declined by 20.5 percent (Rajaretnam, 1989). The

Tamilnadu Demographic transition and other socio-economic

profiles is explained in chapter-3.

Economics of Fertility

There are several reasons for thinking that

economic analysis may have a particularly important role in

the study of fertility. One reason is that many surveys

indicate that people in both developed and developing

countries think of childbearing as having major economic

consequences for their families. There is also evidence,

that economic consequences exert a considerable influence on

couples' reproductive decisions. Thus, in terms of the

subjective self assessments of individuals making fertility

decisions, the trade-offs between children and other

personal objectives of a material nature, i.e., economic

calculations are of considerable importance. Parental

recognition of the economic gains and losses associated with

fertility would be of little interest if parents could not

exercise significant control over fertility. But there are

many indications that fertility behaviour is purposive,

i.e., people adjust their fertility to the larger goals in

their lives. Such behaviour was a precondition of the

demographic transition. People had to have distinct ideas

about the number of children they wanted and needed to feel

that they had some measure of control before fertility could

begin to decrease (Coale, 1973) and couples plan to have

large families because such behaviour is consistent with

other goals (Tabbarah, 1971)

Fertility is in some depee purposive comes from

the Literature on attitude-behaviour consistency. Large

number of studies have been done (McCleland, 1979; Henderson

et.al, 1981) that illustrate the relatively high correlation

between survey responses to questions about the number of

children people want to have, and their subsequent

behaviour.

A quite different ground for thinking that

economics is important with study of fertility is that if

societies are to make general choices related to economic

development, many of the professionals who are involved in

trying to define those choices will be economists. It is

important for them to understand the role of fertility

within the context of the larger choices that society faces.

The rational or utilitarian or behaviourial model of

fertility decision making is not only confined to economists

but also to psychologists and anthropologists etc. Some

aspects of fertility do not fit the simplest notions of

rational or goal oriented behaviour. Conflict between sexual

needs and family size desires or poor communication between

husbands and wives may l e a d t o behaviour i n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h

t h e i d e a l s o f r a t i o n a l behaviour . I t may a l s o be argued t h a t

r a t i o n a l i t y a t t h e s o c i e t a l l e v e l i s perhaps more i m p o r t a n t

t h a t r a t i o n a l i t y a t t h e l e v e l of indcividual o r couple w i t h

t h e e x c e p t i o n o f s t u d i e s r e l a t i n g t o Government d e c i s i o n s ,

soc io logy a s a d i s c i p l i n e may have more t o say about t h i s

l e v e l of s o c i e t a l r a t i o n a l i t y t h a t has economics.

I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o d e f i n e t h e dimensions of t h e

r o l e of economics i n t h e s tudy of f e r t i l i t y . A t b o t h t h e

micro and t h e macro l e v e l i t i s u s e f u l t o t h i n k of f e r t i l i t y

a s mediated by a s e t of v a r i a b l e s d e f i n i n g exposure t o

i n t e r c o u r s e , t h e p r o b a b i l i t y of concept ion , and t h e

p r o b a b i l i t y o f s u c c e s s f u l g e s t a t i o n and p a r t u r i t i o n . These

i n t e r m e d i a t e v a r i a b l e s c o n s t i t u t e a mechanical frame work,

which by d e f i n i t i o n , must s t a n d between f e r t i l i t y and any

kind of s o c i a l o r economic e x p l a n a t i o n ; a l l e lements o f

cho ice o r s o c i a l behaviour work through t h e i n t e r m e d i a t e

v a r i a b l e s t o i n f l u e n c e f e r t i l i t y .

The r o l e of economist i s t o e x p l a i n how t h e

v a r i o u s i n t e r m e d i a t e v a r i a b l e s a r e a f f e c t e d by s o c i a l o r

economic c i r c u m s t a n c e s . The r e s e a r c h t o o l s of t h e economics

p r o f e s s i o n may' h e l p t o t e a s e a p a r t t h e complex s e t o f

relationships which link fertility with other social

phenomena. Theoretical frameworks have been developed for

describing complicated systems of interdependence among

variables and empirical methods haye been worked out for the

estimation of some of the parameters where direct methods

fail, economists have developed simulation approaches that

help to unravel particularly complex or distant

relationships.

Economics can help to achieve the objectives of

policy oriented fertility research, through both theory and

empirical work. Economic theory proceeds by developing a set

of formal postulates and related relationships as a basis

for deductive generalizations about the economic theorist's

role to identify the most appropriate set of assumptions

about the nature of human behaviour in the area of fertility

and to show how those assumptions work their way through the

economic system to affect decisions and behaviour concerning

fertility.

Complementing the economists theoretical approach

to fertility is a set of well developed tools that permit

the economist to confront task and the early stage of

development of economic theories of fertility it is not

always p o s s i b l e t o d e s i g n d e c i s i v e t e s t s , b u t cumula t ive ly ,

t h e e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h on f e r t i l i t y i s beginning t o s u g g e s t

some impor tan t avenues f o r f u r t h e r development of theory .

Empi r ica l r e s e a r c h i n economics af f e r t i l i t y can a l s o

e s t a b l i s h r e l a t i o n s h i p s t h a t can be used f o r t h e purposes o f

p r e d i c t i o n and c o n t r o l . I t i s one t h i n g t o a rgue , on t h e

b a s i s of t h e o r y a l o n e , t h a t a s t h e c o s t of r a i s i n g c h i l d r e n

i n c r e a s e s people w i l l choose s m a l l e r f a m i l i e s and it i s

q u i t e a n o t h e r t o b e a b l e t o p r e d i c t w i t h i n some r e a s o n a b l e

bounds how much o f r e d u c t i o n i n f e r t i l i t y w i l l r e s u l t from a

change i n t h o s e c o s t s .

Macro Approaches t o F e r t i l i t y

The work of Malthus and Marx i s a g g r e g a t e o r

macro-economic i n o r i e n t a t i o n because t h e key outcomes

c o n t r o l t o t h e t h e o r y a r e a g g r e g a t i v e i n n a t u r e . There a r e a

number of t h e o r i e s which s h a r e t h e o r i e n t a t i o n t o a g g r e g a t e

demographic behaviour .

Theory o f Demographic T r a n s i t i o n

The demographic p r o c e s s wi tnessed i n most of t h e

European and . o t h e r i n d u s t r i a l c o u n t r i e s between t h e

nineteenth and twentieth centuries an encouragement

population scientists to formulate a theory of demographic

transition. Many scholars like Landry(1934), Thompson(l929)

and Notestein(l953) attempted t& generalize demographic

evolution in the industrialized countries. The theory is a

description of the phases of demographic development from

the primitive phase characterized by high mortality and

fertility to the modern phase characterized by low mortality

and fertility .

The credit for formulating the process in terms of

the five phases of demographic evolution goes to Blacker

(1947). The primitive phase of high fertility and mortality

prior to technological and economic advancement is affirmed

as the first stage of demographic evolution. Thereafter, an

early expanding phase of population due to declining

mortality because of rising standards of living and

improving health due to the advent of modern medicines,

progress in chemotherapy, sanitation and so on, is described

as the second phase of demographic transition. Subsequently,

the later expanding stage of population - characterized by a continued declining mortality along with declining

fertility, which sets in after some lag, - is identified as the third stage of demographic transition. In the next

phase, population starts getting to a low stationary stage

of lowered rates of fertility balanced by equally low rates

of mortality. In the final phase, population reaches the

diminishing phase characterized by, lowered fertility and

mortality with deaths exceeding births.

Generalization of the demographic evolution in

European countries in the form of the transition theory was

questioned in a number of research studies. The transition

patterns observed over various regions had differed in terms

of lag timings and the tempo of change in the vital roles.

pavlik(1971) categorized three models of transition, namely

the English, French and Japanese - Mexican. The English

model fits well with the transition theory, while the French

model shows a simultaneous and parallel decline in mortality

and fertility throughout the transition period. The Japanese

model shows that fertility rises sharply in the initial

phase with a fall in mortality. Congi11(1949), Cole and

Hoover(1958) and Duncan(1965) referred to many different

patterns in the behaviour of birth and death rates which

differed from the sequence assumed in the transition theory.

Davis(1963), ~otestein(1953) and Leiberman(l976)

try to justi-fy the anomalistic patterns in terms of the

nature of economic development. In their opinion, each

socioeconomic development pattern shapes or creates on

accompanying demographic pattern.

Classical approaches to fertility

Classical views on population during the ancient

and medieval periods are well documented in United

States(1973). This incorporates a summary view of classical

writings belonging to various schools.(Mercantilist,

Physiocratic, neo-classical, socialist, non-socialist, and

Marxist). Classical writings treated population as an

amorphous aggregate while contending its relationship with

the development process.

Malthus(1872) was the first to discuss linkages

between development processes and components of population

change (such as fertility, mortality and migration). He

argued that population, if unchecked, has a tendency to grow

faster in geometric progression. The balance between

population and production is maintained tkough checks on

components of population change. Factors such as famine,

disease and war are enunciated as positive checks monitoring

the mortality component, whereas the postponement of

marriage, moral r e s t r a i n t s on sexual r e l a t i o n s and s o on a r e

affirmed a s preventive check monitoring t h e f e r t i l i t y

component of population change. The arguments of Malthus do

not c l e a r l y hypothesize about t h e exact na ture of t h e ,

r e l a t i o n s h i p between f e r t i l i t y and development on t h e one

hand, while analyzing population t rends i n England, he

suggests than an increase i n t h e demand f o r labour r e s u l t i n g

from increased population s t rongly encourages a rapid

inc rease i n population. On t h e o the r hand, he sugges ts t h a t

improved s tandards of l i v i n g due t o the progress of soc ie ty

and c i v i l i z a t i o n motivates people t o reduce f e r t i l i t y due t o

t h e f e a r of dec l ine i n t h e l i v i n g standards due t o an

increase i n population.

The Ricardian model e s t a b l i s h e s an

i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p between population growth and economic

development through t h e r e l a t i o n sh ip between subs i s t ence

wage r a t e and a c t u a l wage r a t e . He suggests t h a t t h e n e t

reproduction r a t e w i l l be g rea t e r than un i ty , implying

growth of population i f t h e ac tua l wage r a t e is g r e a t e r than

t h e subs is tence wage r a t e . The model suggest t h a t a wage

l e v e l aboye subs is tence provides t h e motivation f o r a l a r g e r

family .

The doctrines of classical writings got

invalidated by a sustained population growth along with a

still higher sustained growth in total production in the

European countries during the period of the Industriaf

revolution. The assumption of a diminishing return to scale

in agricultural production was in validated by the

observance of an increasing return to scale in the

non-agricultural sectors due to technological advancement,

division of labour, expansion of production and trade and so

on. However classical writings are basically responsible for

creating an intellectual climate for a better understanding

of linkages between demographic and development process.

Alternative macro approach to fertility

One new approach to the study of aggregate

fertility patterns involves the application of hypothesis

derived from the micro economic literature on fertility. The

grand theories of Marx, Malthus and the demographic

transition have left out questions related to age structure

and have omitted or greatly reduced the influence of the

intermediate variables. They ignore a number of specific

hypothesis about the determinants of national demographic

change. For example, it is likely that at notional level,

the labour force behaviour of the female population will be

closely related to fertility behaviour. Labour force

participation, in turn, may be affect9 by national patterns

of education. Winegarden(l980), Anker(1977) among others,

have designed macro economic models to bridge the gap

between the grand macro models, with their crippling lack of

specificity, and the more theoretically grounded micro

economic models with their lack of applicability to the

entire system.

These models are usually based on a set of

hypothesis drawn from a variety of sources. Fertility is

hypothesized to be a function of mortality levels, of per

capita income, of female labour force participation or

education levels. Early contributions involved little effort

to specify an appropriate functional form or to model the

relationships involved beyond the fertility function. Later

applications have involved complex multiple equation

simulation models involving a detailed specification of

these relationship.

Such models have often had as their primary

purpose the establishment of a framework for simulation for

empirical estimations. They usually involve combination of

hypotheses and empirical d a t a drawn from d ive r se sources.

The advantage of such models i s t h a t they permit a de ta i l ed

examination of system dynamics a t a l eve l of aggregation

where e i t h e r t h e complexity of t h e r e l a t ionsh ips involved o r

the lack of adequate da ta precludes d i r e c t observation.

Micro economic theor i e s of f e r t i l i t y behaviour

The t r a d i t i o n a l domain of micro economics has been

t h e market r e l a t e d choices made by individuals o r households

and f i rms. I t would probably not have occurred t o t h e o r i s t s

such a s Marshall t h a t economic theory could fu rn i sh

important i n s i g h t s i n t o t h e deterninants of human f e r t i l i t y .

The primary j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r t h e app l i ca t ion of a

micro-economic framework t o f e r t i l i t y i s t h a t f e r t i l i t y

decis ions a r e made i n a ma t t e r t h a t i s , t o some degree,

analogous t o more usual economic choices. F e r t i l i t y involves

t h e use of resources and has implications f o r o the r aspects

of human behaviour such a s labour, l e i s u r e o r savings and

consumption choices t h a t have long been considered p a r t of

economic behaviour.

Theories of household f e r t i l i t y behaviour within

an economic t r a d i t i o n tend t o be presented i n t h e language

of the micro economic theory of consumption. Individuals or

couples are assumed to possess a utility function, to face

environmental constrains that cap be defined in economic

terms as prices or costs and to maximize their utility

subject these well defined budget constraints. But the

models differ enormously in terms of the rigor with which

they are presented, the variables that are included as

arguments, the treatment of time and the populations whose

fertility they are intended to explain.

Leibenstein's theory of fertility

A micro economic theory hypothesizing the effect

of income on fertility decisions was first formulated by

Leibenstein(l957). The formal framework extended an

explanation for the fertility decline implicit in the third

stage of the demographic transition theory. His parity

specific framework for analyzing fertility decisions

presumes that families attribute utilities and disutility to

an additional child. If the utilities outweigh disutility of

the child, then a rational parent would decide to have this

additional child. Leibenstein assumed three broad types of

utilities:

1) The consumption utility.

2 ) The security utility.

3) The income utility.

He delineated two broad categoriesTfbf costs or disutility:

1) The direct costs involved in feeding, housing, clothing

and education and

2) The indirect costs arising out of income earning

opportunities foregone by parents in bearing and caring

for the child. Leibenstein argued that the shape of the

utility curve is downward sloping for the reasons that

work and security utilities decreased whereas

consumption utility may remain the same with the

increase in per capita income.

Regarding costs or disutility, he argued that the

direct costs in monetary terms certainly increase with per

capita income but in terms of disutility of bearing these

costs out of higher income, nothing can be said clearly. The

presumption of direct costs not declining as income rises

results in positively sloped disutility curves. He further

presumes that marginal utilities of the In!'th child are

lower than those of the (n-1)th child; Parents decide to

have an I~flth child only when their expected incremental

utilities are-higher than their incremental disutility. His

presumption about m a r g i n a l u t i l i t i e s and d i s u t i l i t y

e s t a b l i s h e s a n i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n of f e r t i l i t y t o come.

Looking a t t h e s e a s d e r t i o n s and d i f f e r e n t

h y p o t h e t i c a l s c e n a r i o s , one can s e e t h a t t h e r e l a t i o n of

f e r t i l i t y t o income i s q u i t e compl ica ted . Various

c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , l i k e t h e t y p e of economy, t h e chosen p a t h t o

economic development and p a r e n t s p e r c e p t i o n s r e g a r d i n g

c h i l d r e n ' s u t i l i t y i n t h e s e s i t u a t i o n s would de te rmine t h e i r

f e r t i l i t y behaviour . Thus, r a t i o n a l behaviour i n one

s i t u a t i o n may appear t o be i r r a t i o n a l i n t h e o t h e r .

B e c k e r ' s Theory of F e r t i l i t y

Becker ( l960) advocated f o r t h e Hicks ian c h o i c e a

t h e o r e t i c a l framework f o r e x p l a i n i n g f e r t i l i t y d e c i s i o n s . He

viewed c h i l d r e n a s consumer d u r a b l e and argued t h a t a

r a t i o n a l consumer's c h o i c e of goods is determined by

maximizing h i s u t i l i t y under a g iven s e t of income, r e l a t i v e

p r i c e s and t a s t e s f o r d i f f e r e n t a v a i l a b l e goods.

Becker argued t h a t p a r e n t s compare u t i l i t y from

c h i l d r e n w i t h t h a t from o t h e r goods and s e r v i c e s t a k e n

t o g e t h e r v i a a u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n . The presumption o f

diminishing marginal utility with respect to any two goods

depicts the shape of the indifference curves to be convex to

the origin. Now, in the usual form of choice theoretical

framework, a rational consumer chooses a combination ofa

goods represented by the point on the budget line being

tangential to the highest indifference curves to be convex

to the origin. Now, in the usual form of choice theoretical

framework, a rational consumer chooses a combination of

goods represented by the point on the budget line being

tangential to the highest indifference curve. Thus, in the

usual form of consumption theory with homothetic

indifference curves and parallel budget lines, an increase

in income will be associated with a higher number of

children and other goods. Becker extended his framework to

establish a positive association between income and

fertility.

Becker inducted some conceptual modifications

(like desired and undesired fertility) and hypothesized this

in the absence of perfect contraception: the gap between the

two widens and may tilt the positive association between

desired fertility and income towards the negative

association between actual fertility and income. Analyzing

Indianapolis survey data he demonstrated this.

Becker also introduced the qualitative aspects of

demand for children. In case of consumer durable, as the

income increases a rational consumer wants more and better

quality goods. Similarly, couple may decide to have a

greater number and better quality children with increase in

their disposable income. He defined the quality of child in

terms of expenditure on the child over which parents can be

presumed to have control. Thus Becker argues that couples

with higher incomes want more and, at the same time, better

quality children. Ytated differently, 'i'th income

elasticity of both the qualitative and quantitative demand

for children is argued to be positive. Thus Becker's

exposition was the first theoretical economic formulation

endorsing the Malthusian viewpoint on the Leibenstein's

formal explanation of the transitional decline in fertility

observed in the western economies. Duesenberry(l960) and

others questioned some of the basic presumptions of his

analytical framework such as, limited choice of parents

regarding expenditure on children because of social

pressures, irrevocability of decisions regarding children

already born and so on. Mincer (1963 ) confirmed Becker ' s theory by eliciting empirical estimates demonstrating that

while the husband's earning is related positively, the

wife's potential earning has a negative influence on number

of children.

In brief, Becker postulMed that the effect of

income on the demand for children both by quantity and

quality is positive. Knowledge of contraception reduced the

gap between actual and desired fertility. The relation

between income and desired fertility or actual fertility

while the controlling the use of contraceptives is viewed to

be positive. The taste factor is obviated by a presumption

that it is embedded in the shape of utility curves. However,

his empirical support from temporal as well as cross

sectional data for the positive relation between income and

desired fertility does not give due consideration to

variables like child costs, and information and shifts in

taste during reproductive career. However, Becker1s(1965)

theory on allocation of time between home and the market

created a great deal of interest among economists and

demographers working on models of fertility behaviour.

Certain aspects like the price effects of the quality

component were studied by Schultz(1969), Nerlove and Schultz

(1970) and Sanderson and Willis(1971).

New Home Economic Approach to Fertility

The new theoretical developments following the

lines of Becker( 1965) and ~incer(S63) involved newer

concepts like the allocation of time, value of time,

investment in human capital, quality of child and so on, and

these have been characterized as forming part of the new

home economic theory of fertility.

The family has been assumed here to be the basic

decision making unit encompassing all the household

activities of investment, production and consumption of all

the basic commodities. Here, a basic commodity is

distinguished from other goods with sense that this gives

rise to utility directly. A combination of different goods

thus determines the utility frontier. In other words, each

good possesses a utility giving characteristic. In general,

a good may posses more than one characteristic and many

characteristics may be shared by the more than one good.

Thus, in the new home economics, the basic commodities

providing utility to the family members are presumed to be

produced and consumed within the household. For instance,

child service providing direct utility to the parents is

also characterize& as one of these basic commodities. Child

services can be produced and consumed in the household

subject to the available resources of the family are income

of the all family members, wealth of the family providing

non-wage incomes and the time budget of all members of the

family . Child services comprise of two elements.

a) The number of children.

b) The quality of children.

The substitution possibilities between the two

are not ruled out. Both the number and quality of children

are presumed to give rise to utility. So, it is not children

but child service which is presumed to be the basic

commodity providing satisfaction to the parents.

In the new home economic framework, parents draw

utility from the basic commodities which are produced within

a household. The production process of cormnodities involve

family resources. Thus a family utility in the new home

economics is considered to be a function of a vector of

non-marketable home produced basic commodities under which

child services, involving number of quality enter as

argument along with other goods.

Now these basic commodities are produced subject

to the production technology operative in the family,

similar in a sense to the conventional production function

of a firm. The production function of h e basic commodities

require inputs such as market goods and services and the

time of all family members. A household maximizes its

utility from the home produced basic commodities subject to

the production technology operative in the household. So the

basic tools of the traditional theories of a firm and

consumer choice are integrated into the economic theory of

the family. Thus the production and consumption of basic

goods are combined within a framework of household behaviour

and the characteristics of the emerging economic theory of

the family are the core of the mathematical formulation of

the new home economic theory of fertility.

Obviously, different mathematical formulations of

the basic model of fertility within the new home economic

theory can be specified by introducing slight variations in

the specifications of production and utility functions.

Assumptions about inter-child quality differentials, the

stochastic nature of conception, assumptions about

comparative efficiencies of males and females in the

production process, parity specific factors influencing

fertility decisions.

Fertility and Economic Development

The search for a logical relationship between

economic development and fertility evoked great interest

among scholars during the fifties and sixties. Most of the

writings within the framework of the transition theory

affirmed the implicit assumption of an inverse association

between economic development and fertility. Freedman(l963)

argued that structural developments(Modernization process,

changing social structures, values and the development of

new norms) having negative impact on fertility were the

outcome of the economic development process.

On the other hand, the positive association

between fertility and economic development was demonstrated

by Galbraith and Thomas(l941), Dudley(1942) and Stys(1957)

through their empirical exercises on temporal data on

fertility rates and the economic situation over business

cycles. While analyzing data from the United States during

the Period 1919-1937, Galbraith and Thomas demonstrate that

marriage and birth rates are positively associated with

business conditions. Dudley reached the same conclusion,

based on data from Germany during the 1920's Easterlin(l961)

attempt to explain the American baby boom of the 1950's in

terms of higher wage levels due to improved business

conditions. Peterson1(1966) conclusion is the same, based on

data on the Netherlands. Habbakuk(l953) produces evidence to

disprove the implicit assumption of the demographic

transition theory.

During the sixties, a few studies, namely by Heer

and Turner(19651, Weitramb(l962), and Adelman(1963) - based on cross sectional data affirmed the negative association

between fertility and economic development. Adelman argues

that the partial effect of income on birth rate is positive

whereas the partial effect of education on the birth rate is

negative but still the overall unconditional effect of

income on fertility is negative.

To resolve these controversial viewpoints and

empirical evidence certain conciliatory efforts were made

during the six ties. Newer concepts like the partial and

total effect of economic development on fertility came into

prominence. Simon(1977) viewed that short run effects of

income on fertility as partial and the long run effects v i a

other fertility affecting variables as total. Simon

contended that the contradictions between the observed

positive and negative relationship between fertility and

income in the time series and cross - sectional and long run temporal data whereas in the short run time series data, the

modernization variable does not overshadow the positive

effect of income on fertility. However, Simon's conciliatory

effort depicts a phase in which not only economic but also

social considerations are viewed to be important for

explaining varying demographic processes over time and

space.

Fertility and Social Development

When contemporary empirical evidence contradicts

the theoretically expected association between fertility and

economic development, explanations in terms of non-economic

factors (social and cultural) are sought, Leasure(l963)

propounds that cultural influences specific to regions might

have dominated development effects. Becker(l960) holds the

differential knowledge and practice of contraception as

responsible for not getting a positive association between

income and fertility. Johnson(l960), Leasure(l963) and Sauvy

(1963) among the others, emphasize that the process of

transition from high to low fertility gets influenced by

institutional norms and values called cultural factors.

Ryder(1969) and Freedman(l961) stress the changes in the

social organization affecting the ogmposition and function

of the family play an important role in fertility

transition. The relevance of cultural factors affecting the

fertility transition.

It seems that the prevalence of socio-cultural

norms, values and attitudes to family size and composition

are interconnected with the socioeconomic organization of

any society. The normr and values on fertility may vary with

the changing socioeconomic structure of the society. Some

important factors influencing fertility transition in most

of the advanced societies in the past were declining

mortality rising standard of living and the in creasing cost

of child bearing and caring, educational development,

occupational shifts along with industrialization and

urbanization, weakening of family and kinship ties in

conununity life and so on.

Freedman(1957) emphasized the important

differences between the current and past development

processes. The. Western experience of fertility decline was

concomitant with economic development. Technological

development was endogenous to the development process in the

past whereas technical know how and the availability of

modern techniques are exogenous presently developing

countries.

Theoretical Framework of the Study

In previous sections, theories fertility have

been explained extensively like Leiben~tein(l957)~ Gary

Becker (1960, 1965) and model developed based the above

theories is known as household production model by Schultz

(1981). The household production model has provided

economists with the necessary analytical framework within

which to study non-market allocative decisions, especially

those related to the production of children (Nerlove, 1974

and Willis, 1973). The household production approach can be

expressed in terms of a single period household utility

function, a series of household production functions for

final untraded consumption conunodities, subject to a budget

constraint defined in terms of both the husband's and wife's

time and non-earned income. Mathematically, this model can

be expressed as

u = U (Z l............. 'n) Zi = fi (Xi, Hi. W.), for i= 1,2,.......n

1

Y =fXiPi = ShNh + S N + V W W

Z H i = Nh = XWi + Nw = T - ,

Where V is the family utility function, Zils are the

household services, number of children and bundle of other

goods etc; £.Is are the production functions for the Zi8s 1

using market goods (Xi's), husband's time (Hi's) and wife's

time (W.'s). Income (Y) 'is equal to the sum of all market 1

goods (Xi's) times their prices (Pi's) which equals, in

turn, husband's wage (Sh) plus wife's wage (Sw) and time

allocated to market work (Nw) plus the return on non-human

wealth (V). T is the total time available to each spouse.

Objectives

The main objectives of the study are

1. To analyze the female labour force participation and

its influence on family's decision making, particularly

on fertility and family size.

2. To explain how female labour force participation acts

as a determinant of fertility behaviour of the

household with the comparison of non-working women.

3 . To examine t h e e x t e n t of son p r e f e r e n c e and o l d age

economic s e c u r i t y mot iva t ion and i t s i n f l u e n c e s on

f e r t i l i t y behaviour of t h e households and on demand f o r

c h i l d r e n .

4 . To de te rmine t h e i n f l u e n c e of c o n t r a c e p t i v e p r a c t i c e s

on household ' s f e r t i l i t y behaviour w i t h v a r i o u s

socio-economic s t a t u s and psycholog ica l c u l t u r a l n a t u r e

of t h e households.

5 . To d i s c e r n how, t h e r u r a l households d i f f e r from urban

households w i t h regard t o a l l mentioned economic

v a r i a b l e s above.

Hypotheses

Based on t h e review of l i t e r a t u r e t h e fo l lowing

hypotheses a r e g e n e r a t e d f o r e m p i r i c a l v e r i f i c a t i o n i n t h e

p r e s e n t s t u d y . They a r e :

1. Female l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s expected t o be

i n f l u e n c e d much more i n Family planning u s e and t h e r e b y

f e r t i l i t y r e d u c t i o n i n urban a r e a s t h a n r u r a l a r e a s .

2. A household income o r b e t t e r socio-economic s t a t u s of

t h e p a r e n t s i s expec ted t o be p o s i t i v e i n r u r a l and

n e g a t i v e i n urban a r e a s w i t h f e r t i l i t y behaviour .

3 . Son p r e f e r e n c e i s a n t i c i p a t e d t o be a b a r r i e r t o adopt

fami ly p lanning and t h e r e b y f e r t i l i t y behaviour .

4 . P a r e n t a l dependency on t h e i r c h i l d r e n d u r i n g o l d age i s

expected t o be f o r p h y s i c a l h e l p r a t h e r than economic

he lp .

5. Value of t h e f a m i l y ' s a s s e t would i n f l u e n c e n e g a t i v e l y

on f e r t i l i t y behaviour of t h e households.

6 . Family p lanning p r a c t i c e i s expected t o be more

e f f i c i e n t i n urban a r e a s t h a n r u r a l i n i n f l u e n c i n g

f e r t i l i t y behaviour of t h e households.

7 . Educat ion i s a l s o expected t o be more i n f l u e n t i a l

f a c t o r i n de te rmin ing f e r t i l i t y behaviour of t h e

households bo th i n r u r a l and urban a r e a s .

Methodology

Methodology of t h i s mainly s tudy c o n s i s t s of t h r e e p a r t s a s

Sampling d e s i g n

Data c o l l e c t i o n and

S t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s .

Sampling d e s i g n

I n o r d e r t o s tudy t h e economic approach t o

f e r t i l i t y behaviour w i t h some o t h e r s o c i o - c u l t u r a l v a r i a b l e s

which have i n f l u e n c e d cons iderab ly , t h e d a t a have been

c o l l e c t e d th rough i n t e n s i v e survey from t h e sample of r u r a l

and urban households. Though, t h e main o b j e c t i v e i s t o s tudy

t h e economic approach t o f e r t i l i t y behaviour , some o t h e r

v a r i a b l e s have a l s o been inc luded and i n f o r m a t i o n c o l l e c t e d .

The d a t a was c o l l e c t e d d u r i n g t h e month of

January-June 1990. The d a t a s e t c o n t a i n s 600 households (300

from r u r a l and 300 from urban) from s i x v i l l a g e s and s i x

urban wards of Tamil Nadu from t h r e e d i s t r i c t s v i z , Madurai,

Pudukot ta i and Dharmapuri. The households were s e l e c t e d by

t h r e e s t r a t i f i e d random sampling method.

I n t h e f i r s t s t a g e , a l l d i s t r i c t s of Tamil Nadu,

exc lud ing Madras because o f f u l l y u rban ized , were cons idered

f o r s e l e c t i o n . Based on t h e performance of some soc io-

economic i n d i c a t o r s such as income, L i t e r a c y , female l a b o u r

p a r t i c i p a t i o n , demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , w e l f a r e measures

and c o n t r a c e p t i v e preva lence , t h r e e d i s t r i c t s were s e l e c t e d .

v i z , Madurai, P u d u k o t t a i and Dharmapuri, b e s t , medium and

l e a s t performance r e s p e c t i v e l y by u s i n g ranking s c o r e

t echnique . A l l d i s t r i c t s were g iven s c o r e based on

performance ( i . e . t h e performance s c o r e v a r i e s from 1 t o 1 5

a s 15 d i s t r i c t s i n Tamil Nadu a s p e r 1981 c e n s u s ) of each

i nd ica to r s . The scores of each ind ica to r f o r every d i s t r i c t

were t o t a l l e d t o cumulative scores. Based on t h i s cumulative

score d i s t r i c t s e l ec t ion was made as mentioned above.

I n second s t age , two t a l u k s were se lec ted from

each t a luk l eve l v i z , Uthamapalayam and Andipatti from

Madurai d i s t r i c t ; Aranthangi and Kulathur from Pudukottai

d i s t r i c t and Krishnagiri and Harur t a luk from Dharmapuri

d i s t r i c t .

I n t h i r d s tage , from each t a luk one v i l l age and

one urban was se lec ted a t random t o f i n d o u t t h e d i f ferences

between urban and r u r a l a reas of Tamil Nadu. So t h a t v i l l a g e

w i l l be representa t ive f o r r u r a l areas of ta luk and ward

w i l l be r ep resen ta t ive f o r urban t a luk . Thus, two v i l l a g e s

from each d i s t r i c t represent t h e socioeconomic conditions of

r u r a l environment wi th in t h s d i s t r i c t and two urban wards

from each d i s t r i c t represent urban environment within t h e

d i s t r i c t . Thus we have se l ec ted t o t a l l y s i x v i l l a g e s and s i x

urban wards from these t h r e e d i s t r i c t s of Tamil Nadu t o

represent t h e r u r a l and urban areas of Tamil Nadu a s a

whole.

Finally in order to identify the sample

households, a list of village households in each village and

ward was prepared. Single person households, households with

only old people, house holds without even one married couple

and households without at least one child were eliminated

from the list. Approximately, from the list ten percent of

households from each village and ward was selected at

random. Sample households include cultivating and

agricultural households, artisans, businessman and other

sections of the people. Moreover, the attention had been

given, while selecting the households in which the wife

should be aged between 15-45 years.

Data collection

The basic objective of the study is to analyze the

household behaviours, attitudes and decisions on fertility

and to investigate how the various socio-economic factors.

So, we planned to collect data covering wide range of

demographic, economic and social factors and other

attitudinal and behaviourial aspects. A questionnaire was

prepared and tested and was used for this purpose. The

interview method was adopted and researcher directly

Collected from all the samples with the help of some male

and female i n v e s t i g a t o r s bo th i n r u r a l and urban a r e a s . Both

husband and w i f e were i n t e r v i e w e d because, f o r i n f o r m a t i o n

regard ing f a m i l y h i s t o r y , b i r t h h i s t o r y , and c o n t r a c e p t i v e

preva lence , it was needed t o i n t e r v i g w w i f e and f o r o t h e r

in format ion husband were needed t o i n t e r v i e w . S i n c e t h e

r u r a l women were most r e l u c t a n t t o p rov ide in format ion

regard ing b i r t h and f a m i l y p lanning h i s t o r y , female

i n v e s t i g a t o r s had been used f o r accuracy of d a t a . The

respondents were asked t o r e c a l l t h e e a r l i e r in format ion and

t h e s e answers were a g a i n t e s t e d w i t h c r o s s q u e s t i o n s and

en te red i n t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e . However, t h e accuracy o f d a t a

may n o t be p e r f e c t and it depends on t h e respondents r e c a l l

of memory.

The d a t a c o l l e c t e d c o n t a i n s in format ion r e g a r d i n g

t h e g e n e r a l demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of household, t i m e

a l l o c a t i o n o f each fami ly members, educa t ion , m o r t a l i t y and

f e r t i l i t y h i s t o r y , h e a l t h , m a r r i a g e , l abour f o r c e s t a t u s ,

u s e of c o n t r a c e p t i v e s , income and expendi tu re of t h e f a m i l y ,

fami ly a s s e t s of v a r i o u s k i n d s , b u s i n e s s l o a n s , m i g r a t i o n ,

in format ion r e g a r d i n g p r e f e r e n c e s of c h i l d r e n and

a t t i t u d i n a l and m o t i v a t i o n a l behaviour of he households.

Besides the household level data, information

regarding the generai characteristics of the village and

ward, such as availability of school, primary health and

family planning centers, Banking, transportation,

electricity, water and other public utilities were also

collected. Thus, the data set contains individual household^

and community level information. However, some of the

information was not used in this study.

Statistical Analysis

Based on the model discussed above in this

chapter, multivariate techniques are considered as

appropriate for testing the hypotheses. Thus, multivariate

model (Single equation model) has been developed and used.

Parameters are estimated by Ordinary Least Square method

(OLS) of estimation and children everborn has been used as

endogenous variable and many exogenous variable (details in

chapter Vth and VIth) have been used.

Plan of Presentation

Chapter I is introductory which contains brief

history of economic theories of fertility behaviour,

relationship between population and development, growth of

population in Indian and Tamil Nadu, economic setting for

high fertility, importance, economic setting for higher

fertility, importance and need for study, objectives,

methodological aspects, data collection, sampling procedure,

statistical analysis and plan of presentation.

In chapter I1 a survey of economics of fertility

behaviour is presented. h he emphasis is given to value of

children approach, son preference, old age security

motivations, women labour force participation outside the

household and family planning practices. Apart from these, a

brief survey of the micro approaches and supply side

theories of fertility behaviour are also received.

Chapter I11 discusses the profile of the study

area. First, the profile of basic socio-economic and

demographic nature has been presented to Tamil Nadu as a

whole and secondly district wise profile has been given to

the selected districts, viz, Madurai, Pudukottai and

Dharamapuri.

Chapter IV analyses the socio-economic and

demographic nature of sample households rural and urban

s e p a r a t e l y . I n t h i s c h a p t e r a l l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of

households l i k e economic n a t u r e , e d u c a t i o n a l , s o c i a l and

o t h e r c u l t u r a l s t a t u s , some a t t i t u d i n a l approaches, fami ly

p lanning and b i r t h h i s t o r y e t c .

Chapter V d i s c u s s e s t h e women l a b o u r f o r c e

p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n o u t s i d e employment and i t s impact on

f e r t i l i t y behaviour which h a s been compared w i t h non-working

women ( n o i n e q u a l p r o p o r t i o n ) and r u r a l and urban a r e a s .

Chapter V I d e s c r i b e s t h e household a t t i t u d e s and

m o t i v a t i o n s on va lue of c h i l d r e n , son p r e f e r e n c e , o l d a g e

s e c u r i t y m o t i v a t i o n , impact of number of s u r v i v i n g c h i l d r e n

e s p e c i a l l y sons over d a u g h t e r ; impact of son p r e f e r e n c e

approach on c o n t r a c e p t i v e preva lence bo th i n r u r a l and urban

a r e a s .

Chapter V I I a n a l y z e s t h e c o n t r a c e p t i v e behaviour

of t h e c o u p l e s among t h e v a r i o u s socio-economic s t a t u s

groups bo th i n r u r a l and urban a r e a s s e p a r a t e l y . Also

d i s c u s s e s how and t o what e x t e n t f a m i l y ' s economic s t a t u s

i n f l u e n c e s t h e fami ly p l a n n i n g and f e r t i l i t y behaviour .

Chapter V I I I p r e s e n t s t h e o v e r a l l sumnary and

c o n c l u s i o n s of r e s e a r c h work and p r e s e n t s some s u g g e s t i o n s

and p o l i c y i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h and development

and L i m i t a t i o n s of t h e s t u d y has been b r i e f e d .