introduction history of economic thought evolution of economic ideas - economic research role of...

IntroductionHistory of Economic Thought

Evolution of Economic Ideas - Economic Research

Role of Scientific Researchers

History of Economic Thought

1500-1750 •Pamphlets on particular questions of economic policy written mostly by business men with practical knowledge of institutions and operation of the economy.

1650-1750 •Emerged as a discipline.

1200-1500 •Scholastic writings providing insight into the functioning of the developing Western European economy.

300 BC •Aristotle’s condemnation of the use of money in the exchange of commodities.

1776 •Adam Smith, trained in moral philosophy, shaped the economic literature into political economics in his Wealth of Nations.

History of Economic Thought (continued)1900-30 •Political economics became

“economics” and economics became professionalized.

1930’s •The Great Depression increased government involvement in economic activity which spurred interest in economic education.•Most economists were academics concerned with with abstract, theoretical issues, rather than practical economic issues.

1940-80 •Methodologies for testing theories advanced. •Technology and increased data availability facilitated the development and tests of theories in new areas.

1980-present

Evolution of Economic Ideas - Economic Research

•Students and professors present their current and/or recent research to other economists in seminars and professional meetings.•They refine their work, based on feedback about their presentations, until it is suitable for publication in economic texts and journals.•Material in economic text books and journals are the basis of economists’ education.•Ideally, open competition among researchers results in progressive research programs and the rejection of incorrect ideas.

Role of Scientific Researchers•Develop and logical theories that lead to empirically testable propositions.•Test the propositions.•The theories become part of economic thought if the results of the tests support the propositions.•Tools for analyzing economic behavior are based on generally accepted economic theories.

Tools for Analyzing Economic Behavior

Supply and Demand

Indifference Curves and Budget Lines

Aggregate Supply and Demand

Aggregate Savings and Investment

Production Possibility Frontier

Tools for Analyzing Social Behavior

Correlation Analysis

Regression Analysis


Supply and DemandSupply: the relationship between quantity supplied and price of a well defined product, when all other factors that affect quantity supplied are constant.

Quantity Supplied: the quantity that producers are willing and able to sell at a given price level.Demand: the relationship between quantity demanded and price of a well defined product, when all other factors that affect quantity demanded are constant.Quantity Demanded: the quantity that consumers are willing and able to buy at a given price level.


Supply Schedule Demand ScheduleQuantityPrice Price Quantity

$1 030$240$1

$3 20$2

10 $35

102015

0$4$5 $5

$4

Supply and Demand


Supply and Demand

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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Quantity

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Supply


Supply and Demand

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SupplyDemand


Supply and Demand

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SupplyDemand

$3.70 .

Price


Supply and Demand

SD

Price

Quantity


Supply and DemandSupply: the relationship between quantity supplied and price of a well defined product, when all other factors that affect quantity supplied are constant.

Quantity Supplied: the quantity that producers are willing and able to sell at a given price level.Demand: the relationship between quantity demanded and price of a well defined product, when all other factors that affect quantity demanded are constant.Quantity Demanded: the quantity that consumers are willing and able to buy at a given price level.


Indifference Curves: plot the combination of goods that yield the same level of satisfaction to a consumer.Budget Line: Plots the combination of goods the consumer can buy, given income and prices of the goods.Consumer Equilibrium: the combination of goods on the budget line that that lies on the highest possible indifference curve.



Example of Consumer Equilibrium:Indifference Curves and Budget Lines

Income = $100

P1 = $1P2 = $5

The consumer can buy 100 units of good 1 by spending all income on good 1.

The consumer can buy 20 units of good 1 by spending all income on good 2.



0

5

10

15

20

25

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Quantity of Good 1

Qua

ntity

of G

ood

2 .

.. *

.


Indifference Curves and Budget LinesLabor Supply Decision

Good 1 is Labor/Leisure. Good 2 is income. Income is the value of all goods (other than leisure) the consumer can buy.

Leisure is a normal good.

The slope of the budget line is the negative of the wage rate.The higher the wage rate, the steeper the budget line.


Indifference Curves and Budget LinesLabor Supply Decision:Example

Wage rate = $10.

The consumer has 16 hours to either work or consume as leisure.



$0$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140$160$180$200$220$240$260$280$300$320$340$360$380$400

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

<--Labor/Leisure-->

Inco

me

*..



$0$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140$160$180$200$220$240$260$280$300$320$340$360$380$400

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

<--Labor/Leisure-->

Inco

me

*..

..

b



$0$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140$160$180$200$220$240$260$280$300$320$340$360$380$400

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

<--Labor/Leisure-->

Inco

me

*b

...

Economics for the Real WorldWhat is Thaler’s theory of mental accounting?People estimate gains and losses in a way that can lead to seemingly odd choices

On busy days the cab drivers work fewer hours than on slow days.

What behavior of New York cab driver’s does Thaler use to demonstrate the theory?

According to Thaler, is this behavior consistent with traditional economic theory?No. According to Thaler, economic theory dictates that they should at least work a full day on busy days.Do you agree with Thaler?

New York Cab Drivers

Income

Labor/Leisure

Budget line on a good day

Economics for the Real WorldWhat is loss aversion?Greater sensitivity to losses than too gains.

Investors are more likely to sell a stock when the price increases than when the price decreases.

How is this demonstrated in investors behavior?

Is this consistent with economic theory?

P1 .

Q

P

Supply P

.Q1

P2 .

.Q2

Market for a Stock

P1 .

Q

P

P2 .

Supply P

.Q1

.Q2

Market for a Stock

Utility

Loss/Gain..

Utility Function for a Loss Averse Individual

Utility

Loss/Gain.$10

-$10 .

Utility gained by selling a stock when the price increases by $10 above purchase price.

Utility lost by selling a stock when the price decreases by $10 below the purchase price.


Economics for the Real WorldHow is loss aversion evident in employees behavior concerning participation in 401k plans provided by employers?They are more likely to participate in presumptive plans than in voluntary plans.What is another way of explaining this behavior?Hyperbolic discounting: a person is more likely to continue participating in the plan than they are to make the initial decision to participate. Are these behaviors consistent with economic theory?

Investment Programs

Gross Income = $1,000

Presumptive Participation

Investment Program Deduction = $50

Net Income w/o Opting Out = $950

Net Income Opting Out = $1,000

Gain from Opting Out = $50

Investment Programs

Gross Income = $1,000

Voluntary Participation

Investment Program Deduction = $50

Net Income w/o Participating = $1,000

Net Income with Participation = $950

Loss from Participating = $50

Utility

Loss/Gain.$50

-$50 .

Utility gained by opting out of the investment program.

Utility lost by opting into the investment program.


Utility

Loss/Gain.10

-10 .

Utility gained by a $10 wage increase.

Utility lost by a $10 wage decrease.


Utility

% Nominal Wage.2%

-1% .

Utility gained by a 2% increase in nominal wage rate when inflation is 5%.

Utility lost by a 1% decrease in nominal wage rate when inflation is 2%.

Utilit|y Function for a Loss Averse Individual

The change in the real wage rate is -1% in both cases.

Economics for the Real WorldWhat are the implications for employers’ cost cutting strategies?Employees are less likely to complain about wage increases that are are below inflation, than to complain about nominal wage decreases that result in the same change in the real wage rate.