Introduction to Empirical Food & Nutrition Security Analysis

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Outline

• Concept• Dimensions & Policy Options• State of Food Insecurity Today• Global Hunger Index• Bangladesh Scenario• Contemporary Policy Questions• Course Structure

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Food Security

The World Food Summit in 1996: “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”

: Introduction

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Food Security: Four Dimensions

• Access• Availability• Stabilization• Utilization

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Food Security: Policy Options

(i) Increase food availability by (a) imports, (b) increased food production by modern technology/expansion of area under cultivation, (c) depleting stocks, (d) efficient market infrastructure, (e) land redistribution;

(ii) Promote household/individual access to food by increasing entitlements (subsidies) or endowments (income transfers/asset redistribution/school feeding/nutrition programme);

(iii) Better utilization of food by education and general environment like access to safe drinking water and sanitation.

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State of Food Insecurity

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Food Insecurity

• A major problem facing developing countries.• World: Number and percentage of undernourished

persons 2006-2008 - 850million (13%) 2000-2002 - 836million (14%) 1995-1997 - 792million (14%) 1990-1992 - 848million (16%) 1979-1981 - 853million (21%) 1969-1971 - 878million (26%)

Source: http://www.fao.org/hunger/en/

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Number of hungry people, 1969-2010

Source: FAOFood Security Introduction

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Number of Hungry in the world: 925 million in 2010

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Global Hunger Index

IFPRI IndexSource: IFPRI

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Global Hunger Index

Objectives:

• Rank countries.

• Compare international experience for policy guidance.

• Draw global attention.

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• Sample: • Based on 120 developing and transitional countries;

• Compares 88 only.

• Three indicators

• Un-weighted average as an index

Global Hunger Index

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Indicators

# Indicator Purpose to measure

1 % of calorie deficient / under-nourished population

Hunger

2 % children underweight U5 Malnutrition of children, the most vulnerable to hunger

3 U5 mortality rate (%) Child deaths caused by malnutrition & disease

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Hunger Index Scale

Index Classification Color Code

≥ 30.0 Extremely alarming

20.0 – 29.9 Alarming

10.0 – 19.9 Serious

5.0 – 9.9 Moderate hunger

≤ 4.9 Low hunger

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Country Classification: n= 120

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26

3223

32 E xtremely alarming

Alarming

S erious

Moderate

L ow hunger

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Global Trends: 1990 - 2008

• Hunger (Global index): decreased by less than one-fifth 1990: 18.72008: 15.2

• Performance by indicator% underweight children: declined by 5.9 points

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• Status: AlarmingSub-Saharan Africa: 23.3

South Asia: 23.0

• Ten countries (highest levels of hunger); nine are in Sub-Saharan Africa.

• Ten best performers since 1990: None from Sub-Saharan Africa.

Regional Profile: 2008

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Country Profiles

Best score Mauritius, followed by Jamaica, Moldova, Cuba, and Peru

Worst score Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), followed by Eritrea, Burundi, Niger, and Sierra Leone

Most progress Kuwait, Peru, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey, and Mexico

Regress DRC, North Korea, Swaziland, Guinea-Bissau, and Zimbabwe

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Country Profiles

Highest proportion of population with calorie deficiency

Eritrea: 75%DRC: 74%

Highest prevalence of underweight children(a measure of malnutrition)

India, Yemen, and Timor-Leste: more than 40%

Highest child mortality (under 5) rate

Sierra Leone: 27%Angola: 26%

Source: IFPRI

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Poverty Profile

21Food Security Introduction

Where Do The Poor Live?

Food Security: Introduction

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Global Index Scale

Index Classification Color Code

≥ 30.0 Extremely alarming

20.0 – 29.9 Alarming

10.0 – 19.9 Serious

5.0 – 9.9 Moderate hunger

≤ 4.9 Low hunger

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2008 Global Hunger Index Source; IFPRI

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Progress – Regress Source; IFPRI

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GHI-Winners and Losers: 1990 – 2008

Source: IFPRI

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GHI-Winners and Losers: 1990 – 2011

Source: IFPRI

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GHI: Progress in South, East and Southeast Asia

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Bangladesh: Food Security Scenariohttp://www.usaid.gov/bd/programs/food_sec.html

• Nearly self-sufficient in rice; Food security an elusive goal:• About 43% of children under-five stunted;

– Cause: Malnourishment due to poor feeding habits & lack of access to nutritious foods.

• Lack of diversity in diet: 75% of calories from rice. • Decline in agricultural growth rate : 4.7% in the late 1990’s to

2.8% by 2008. • Agriculture: Employs 80% population generates 22% of GDP• Bangladesh’s arable area: 37% ; natural disasters can affect

30% of this land.

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Bangladesh: Policy PrioritiesBangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010

1. Agricultural Growth and Productivity of Crops, and Adaptation to Climate Change

2. Development of Fisheries and Livestock Sectors 3. Agricultural Marketing, Price Stabilization, Value Chain, and

Global/Regional Trade 4. Income Growth, Social Safety Nets, and Public Food

Distribution 5. Food Utilization and Nutrition Security 6. Cross-Cutting Issues: Governance and Gender

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Contemporary Policy Questions

1. What is the state of food insecurity today?2. If the entire subsidy regime were to be reformed as part of the economic reform

programme, what would be the macroeconomic and distributional consequences?

3. What are the different policy roles that a food subsidy prorgramme can play? What is the international evidence?

4. How far an income transfer programme like food stamps is feasible in developing countries like Bangladesh and India? What is the international experience?

5. How far did Bangladesh succeed in dealing with the 1979 famine? How useful is the information base for policy formulation and implementation?

6. What are the effective alternatives to the ‘Food for Work Programme in Bangladesh’?

7. What is the impact of commodity price volatility on nutritional intake of poor households in Bangladesh?

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Course Structure

• Addresses issues related to food & nutrition security within a quantitative framework.

It raises issues within a quantitative framework; Describes appropriate statistical tools for analysis; Illustrates its application with reference to published

studies / exercises based on sample data sets; and Interprets results and examines policy implications.

Thank You

Supplementary Information

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Bangladesh: A Food Security Profile

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Bangladesh: Economic Indicators

Total Population (millions) - 2009 (WB) 162.221

Population growth rate - 2009 (WB) 1 %

GNI per capita, $ PPP - 2009 (WB) 1550

Population below 1$ PPP per day - 2005 (MDGI)

49 %

Rural population - 2009 (WB) 72 %

Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) - 2009 (WB)

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Bangladesh: Health Indicators

Pop. with sustainable access to improved sanitation - 2008 (WHO)

53%

Life expectancy at birth (years) both genders - 2008 (WHO) 65

65%

Pop. with access to improved drinking water sources - 2008 (WHO)

80%

Prevalence of HIV among adults aged >= 15 years - 2009 (WHO) 0.05%

0.05%

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Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNSBangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010

Food Availability

1. Integrated research and extension to develop sustainable responses to climate change .2. Improved water management and infrastructure for irrigation purposes. 3. Increased supply and sustainable use of agricultural inputs.4. Development of the fisheries sector.

5. Development of the livestock sector.

6. Improved access to markets, improved agricultural value added, increased nonfarm incomes.

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Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNSBangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010

Food Access

7. Enhanced capacity strengthening to formulate and implement food policies and related investments. 8. Enhanced public food-management systems. 9. Development of an integrated, multiyear safety net program.

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Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNSBangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010

Food Utilization

10. Implementation of community-based nutrition activities through livelihood approaches. 11. Updated food consumption and food composition data and behavioral change communication on dietary diversification. 12. Improved food safety and quality.