introduction to estimation and planning in agile
TRANSCRIPT
Plans are nothing; planning is everything.
Dwight D. Eisenhower
Introduction to Estimating and Planning in Agile
Natasha Hill & Amaad Qureshi
About us
Natasha Hill• Scrum Master• Agile Coach• Agile Enthusiast• Organiser – Psychology of Agile
Scrum Meet-up Group
Amaad Qureshi• Business Development Manager• Certified ScrumMaster• Certified Scrum Product Owner• Organiser – Agile Connexions
Meet-up Group• Co-organiser – Agile 101,
AppsJuction Meet-up Groups
Agenda
• Planning in Agile• Story points vs ideal days• Estimating techniques• Velocity
What is Estimation in Agile?
Estimation in Agile is a method of measuring how long it will take to complete a user story or a task.
What is a Story Point?
Story point is a relative measure of effort.
How tall are these buildings?
Great Pyramid CN Tower The Shard
Giza Paris Toronto Kuala Lumpur London Dubai
139.5m 324m 828m
553m 452m
Eiffel Tower Petronas Towers Burj Khalifa
How tall are these buildings?Relative vs absolute estimating
2
309m
Story Points
• Most popular in Agile• Relative measures of effort• Usually assigned using:
Fibonacci ( 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, ...) Modified Fibonacci ( 0, ½, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100, ...) Powers of 2 ( 0, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, ...)
• Basic math properties apply5+5=10=5+3+2
How long?
We can estimate in:
• Story points• Ideal days (without any disruptions)• Hours• T-shirt sizes• Beer sizes• Custom sizes
We recommend estimating
Tasks
TasksTasks
Tasks
Tasks
Tasks
Tasks
TasksTasks
Tasks
Tasks
Tasks
Tasks
TasksTasks
Tasks
Tasks
Tasks
In T-shirt sizes In Story Points In Hours
Less detail More detail
Product Backlog
Less detail
More detail
Rowan Bunning @2013
How do we estimate?Planning Poker®- an iterative approach to estimatingSteps:• Each estimator has a deck of cards with estimates on them• A story is read and discussed briefly• Each estimator selects a card that’s his or her estimate• Cards are turned over so all can see them• Discuss differences• Re-estimate if necessary• Each card deck has: too large, break and ‘?’
Example
?
Planning poker®
Challenge: estimate the size of the animals in a zoo in story points
• Lion• Kangaroo• Rhinoceros• Bear• Giraffe• Gorilla• Hippopotamus• Tiger
Other estimation techniques• Gut feeling
• Triangulation
• Relative estimation
• Disaggregation
• Three, two, one...
42
Large = 31
2 31
2 = 12
2
When do we estimate?
Release planning
Iterationor sprint
Daily Planning
Refinement
Iteration Planning
Velocity• Units of work per iteration
• Can be planned and observed
• Takes a few iterations to stabilise
• Should not be used to measure progress or to compare teams
Iteration
1
1 3
1
3
1
2
Iterations
Velocity is measured in the units you use to estimate your user stories
Iteration planning
or iteration
Challenge: plan each iteration
1. Lion 202. Kangaroo 133. Rhinoceros 304. Koala Bear 55. Giraffe 406. Gorilla 207. Hippopotamus 308. Tiger 20
Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3
Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6
4 zoo cleaners can do50 story points per iteration
Priority Story points
Capacity
Capacity = Number of people in the project x hours on the projecti.e. take away:
holidays, meetings,client’s issues,etc.
Iteration planning• Whole team• Look at historic velocity• Calculate capacity • Pick story by story, discuss• Commit to the right amount of work
Iteration Units of work
1 13
2 15
3 14
4 16
5 0
6 30
7 16
8 15
9 6
10 25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1005
101520253035
The more you estimate, the more accurate you will get!
velo
city
velo
city
iterations
iterations
Retrospective
Free Resources• Trello.com – Free organizing tool, great for backlogs and story boards
• Planning Poker.com• Pointingpoker.com• Mountaingoatsoftware.com• Romanpichler.com
Credits
• Images: © Mike Cohn, 2015• Mountaingoatsoftware.com• Book:
