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Introduction to Fleet PlanningDr. Peter Belobaba
Network, Fleet and Schedule
Strategic Planning
Module 4: 10 March 2014
Istanbul Technical University
Air Transportation Management
M.Sc. Program
2
Lecture Outline
World Airline Fleets Commercial Aircraft Manufacturers Airline Fleet Sizes, Average Seats and Age
Passenger Aircraft Market Categories Evolution of aircraft types by size and range Overview of current commercial aircraft types Narrow-body jet aircraft Wide-body jet aircraft
Aircraft Orders and Fleet Plans Current orders by region, type and manufacturer Focus on emerging global carriers Turkish Airlines: Orders and fleet outlook
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FLEET PLANNING
Fleet composition is a long-term strategic decision Fleet is the total number of aircraft that an airline operates, as well
as the specific aircraft types that comprise the total fleet. Each aircraft type has different technical performance
characteristics (e.g., payload capacity and “range”) Affects financial position, operating costs, and especially the ability
to serve specific routes.
Large capital investment with a long-term horizon: US $50-60 million for narrow-body 150-seat airplane $180+ million for mid-size (230 seats) long-range Boeing 787 $300+ million for largest Airbus A380 (500-600 seats) Depreciation impacts on balance sheet last 10-15 years Some aircraft have been operated economically for 30+ years
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Commercial Aircraft Manufacturers
Boeing (USA) Largest producer of commercial (and military) aircraft Acquired McDonnell-Douglas Aircraft in 1997
Airbus (Europe) Launched as a consortium owned by several European countries in
1967, now 80% owned by EADS Has captured 50% market share of large jet aircraft
Embraer (Brazil) Developed small regional jets, now focusing on “E-jets” with 75-110
seats
Bombardier (Canada) Also shifting focus from 50-seat regional jets to larger “C-jets”
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Airline Fleets 2012 – US Airline Fleets are Substantially Larger
Source: Airline Business Top 200 Airlines Traffic 2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Numbe
r of A
ircraft
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Average World Wide Fleet Ages
China Southern: 7.0 yearsChina Eastern: 6.8 yearsAir China: 8.3 years
China Southern: 7.0 yearsChina Eastern: 6.8 yearsAir China: 8.3 years
Air India: 9.4 yearsJet Airways: 5.4 yearsKingfisher: 4.2 years
Air India: 9.4 yearsJet Airways: 5.4 yearsKingfisher: 4.2 years
Emirates: 6.2 yearsSaudi Arabian: 12.9 years
Qatar: 5.0 years
Emirates: 6.2 yearsSaudi Arabian: 12.9 years
Qatar: 5.0 years
TAM: 6.5 yearsGol: 7.6 yearsLAN: 5.7 years
TAM: 6.5 yearsGol: 7.6 yearsLAN: 5.7 years South African: 9.9 years
Royal Air Maroc: 10.5 yearsTunisair: 14.1 years
South African: 9.9 yearsRoyal Air Maroc: 10.5 years
Tunisair: 14.1 years
Lufthansa: 13.2 yearsAir France: 9.2 yearsKLM: 10.7 yearsRyanair: 2.8 years
Lufthansa: 13.2 yearsAir France: 9.2 yearsKLM: 10.7 yearsRyanair: 2.8 years
Southwest: 12.8 yearsAmerican: 15.0 yearsDelta: 15.7 years
Southwest: 12.8 yearsAmerican: 15.0 yearsDelta: 15.7 years
Qantas: 11.8 yearsVirgin Blue: 5.1 years
Air New Zealand: 10.3 years
Qantas: 11.8 yearsVirgin Blue: 5.1 years
Air New Zealand: 10.3 years
Courtesy: Kamala Shetty, MITData Source: OAG - Oct. 2010
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Passenger Aircraft Categories
Commercial aircraft are most commonly defined by their range and size: The “range” is the maximum distance that it can fly without stopping for
additional fuel, while still carrying a reasonable payload of passengers and/or cargo.
The “size” of an aircraft can be represented by measures such as its weight, its seating or cargo capacity, as indicators of the amount of payload that it can carry.
Broad categories such as “small, short-haul” or “large, long-haul” aircraft can include several different aircraft types by different manufacturers. Aircraft with similar capabilities are regarded as “competitors” in the
airline’s fleet planning decisions. For example, the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737-800 are competing
aircraft types, as they are both new generation aircraft with approximately 150 seats with similar range capabilities.
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A310
A318A319
A320
A321
A330-200
A330-300
A340-200
A340-300
A340-500
A340-600
A380-800
717 737-600737-700
737-800737-900ER
747-8
747-400
757-200
757-300
767-200ER
767-300ER767-400ER
777-200 777-200ER 777-200LR
777-300777-300ER
787-3
787-8
787-9
MD90
MD11
E135E145 E170
E175 E190
E195
CRJ-200CRJ-700
CRJ-900
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000
RANGE (KM)
SEA
TIN
G C
APA
CIT
Y
Commercial Aircraft by Size and Range
Adapted from: Belobaba et al (2009)
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Aircraft Categories - Trends
Historically, largest aircraft were designed for routes with the longest flight distances. Relationship between aircraft size and range was almost linear. Airlines wishing to serve a very long-haul non-stop route had to
acquire the Boeing 747.
Airlines now have a much wider choice of products by range and capacity in each category: Range of new aircraft in the “small” category (100-150 seats) has
increased dramatically. US transcontinental routes are now being flown with Boeing 737
and Airbus 320 series aircraft. Sizes of new “long-range” aircraft have decreased substantially. Airlines even now serve certain low-demand long-haul non-stop
international routes with Boeing 757 (180 seats) e.g., Newark to Lisbon, and Los Angeles to Maui.
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A318
A319
A320
A321
717 737-600
737-700
737-800
737-900ER
757-200
757-300
E135E145
E170
E175E190
E195
CRJ-200
CRJ-700CRJ-900
C110
C130
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
SEAT
ING
CA
PAC
ITY
RANGE (KM)
Narrow-body Jet Aircraft
Newest Aircraft Types in Green
Adapted from: Belobaba et al (2009)
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A350-900
A330-200
A330-300
A340-200A340-300
A340-500
A340-600
A380-800
747-8
747-400
767-200ER767-300ER
767-400ER
777-200 777-200ER
777-200LR
777-300 777-300ER
787-8
787-9
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 16000 17000 18000
SEAT
ING
CA
PAC
ITY
RANGE (KM)
Wide-body Jet Aircraft
Newest Aircraft Types in Green
Adapted from: Belobaba et al (2009)
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New Aircraft
Airbus A350
Airbus A380
Boeing 787
Improved efficiencies and longer ranges
Courtesy: Kamala Shetty, MIT
25Sources: Manufacturer order and delivery schedules, airbus.com, boeing.com
Large Jet Aircraft Orders by Region(December 2013)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Africa Asia‐Pacific Europe LatinAmer/Carib
Middle East NorthAmerica
Unidentified
Narrowbody
Widebody
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Large Aircraft Orders by Manufacturer and Type (December 2013)
Data Source: Manufacturer websites – www.airbus.com, www.boeing.com
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
A320 A330 A350 A380 B737 B747 B767 B777 B787
Airbus Boeing
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Emerging carriers have over 1000 aircraft on order; 74% are for wide-body aircraft
Source: Airbus & Boeing order and delivery schedule, retrieved Jan 13, 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
A320 A330 A350 A380 737 777 777X 787
Emirates Etihad Qatar Turkish
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Turkish Airlines Fleet (2013)
Airbus A320:• A319: 14• A320: 32• A321: 32
Airbus A330:• A330-200: 7• A330-300: 10
Airbus A340:• A340-300: 7
Boeing 777:• 777-300ER: 22
Boeing 737:• 737-400: 3• 737-700: 14• 737-800: 59• 737-900: 9
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Fleet Forecast (2020): Turkish Airlines
Airbus A320:• A319: 14• A320: 32• A321: 62• A320Neo: 57
Airbus A330:• A330-200: 7• A330-300: 27
Boeing 777:• 777-300ER: 27
Boeing 737:• 737-700: 14• 737-800: 89• 737-900: 15• 737-MAX: 40