Introduction to Introduction to Research MethodsResearch Methods

Voter turnout in the UK Voter turnout in the UK and the USand the US

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The use of models in social The use of models in social sciencessciences

Prediction is difficult in social science Prediction is difficult in social science because of the ‘Oedipus effect’because of the ‘Oedipus effect’

Hence, most models are explanatoryHence, most models are explanatory The world is complex, probably The world is complex, probably

increasingly soincreasingly so Hence we need parsimonious and Hence we need parsimonious and

robust models to understand itrobust models to understand it A theory that says nothing about A theory that says nothing about

practice/reality is a bad theorypractice/reality is a bad theory

Rational choiceRational choice

All models make simplifying All models make simplifying assumptionsassumptions

Remember that rationality is judged Remember that rationality is judged in terms of a person’s goals – not in terms of a person’s goals – not whether a third party judges whether whether a third party judges whether those goals are rationalthose goals are rational

People are rational and predictable People are rational and predictable at least some of the time – that’s at least some of the time – that’s what market research is all aboutwhat market research is all about

VotingVoting

Benefits of voting are low. Chances Benefits of voting are low. Chances of affecting outcome are small, but of affecting outcome are small, but there may be other satisfactions there may be other satisfactions derived from ‘taking part’derived from ‘taking part’

Costs are also relatively low, Costs are also relatively low, although variable. Costs of making although variable. Costs of making decision may be higher than act. decision may be higher than act. Hardly above rationality threshold.Hardly above rationality threshold.

A key insightA key insight

What rational choice tells us is that What rational choice tells us is that we should not be surprised that we should not be surprised that people do not vote, but that they dopeople do not vote, but that they do

Turnout is tending to fall slightly in Turnout is tending to fall slightly in established democracies, about 4 per established democracies, about 4 per cent from 1970s to 1990s, but very cent from 1970s to 1990s, but very sharply more recently in the UKsharply more recently in the UK

Turnout tends to be very high in first Turnout tends to be very high in first elections in new democracieselections in new democracies

So what?So what?

Basic element of a democratic system, Basic element of a democratic system, undermines legitimacy of that system if undermines legitimacy of that system if citizens do not votecitizens do not vote

Democracy taken for granted by those Democracy taken for granted by those who have it, most important element is who have it, most important element is guarantees of human rights, e.g., Chileguarantees of human rights, e.g., Chile

There is more to citizen engagement than There is more to citizen engagement than voting – a concern primarily of the political voting – a concern primarily of the political class?class?

US comparisonUS comparison

Registration not turnout of those Registration not turnout of those registered is the key variableregistered is the key variable

In presidential elections about 85% of In presidential elections about 85% of those registered votethose registered vote

But turnout of voter age population was But turnout of voter age population was 55.3% in 2004, although up from 51.3% in 55.3% in 2004, although up from 51.3% in 2000 and 49.1% in 19962000 and 49.1% in 1996

Non-south voting level near that of 1820s Non-south voting level near that of 1820s when many voters were illiteratewhen many voters were illiterate

RegistrationRegistration

Essentially a state function, but with Essentially a state function, but with federal interventionsfederal interventions

Easy and lax in some states, difficult Easy and lax in some states, difficult in others (especially south)in others (especially south)

Registered individuals tend to be Registered individuals tend to be better educated, older, more better educated, older, more politically interested and more politically interested and more socially connectedsocially connected

DiscriminationDiscrimination

In the past ‘All the suffrage provisions … In the past ‘All the suffrage provisions … were phrased to exclude from the were phrased to exclude from the franchise not African-Americans as such franchise not African-Americans as such but persons with certain characteristics but persons with certain characteristics most of whom would be African-Americans most of whom would be African-Americans (Key)(Key)

4.7m felons disenfranchised, only a 4.7m felons disenfranchised, only a quarter in prison, half of them African quarter in prison, half of them African AmericanAmerican

Federal laws on residency requirements Federal laws on residency requirements and motor voter programmesand motor voter programmes

Who is not registered in UK?Who is not registered in UK?

CatgeoryCatgeory Percentage not Percentage not registeredregistered

Black AfricanBlack African 37%37%

Moved in last 6 Moved in last 6 monthsmonths

33%33%

Private renterPrivate renter 27%27%

StudentsStudents 22%22%

Inner LondonInner London 18%18%

Key findings on registrationKey findings on registration

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/elehttp://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/elections/index.cfmctions/index.cfm for full details for full details

Overall non-registration rate is 8-9%, 3.5m Overall non-registration rate is 8-9%, 3.5m missingmissing

Mobility a key factor, non-registration Mobility a key factor, non-registration declines with time at addressdeclines with time at address

Reasons are both situational and Reasons are both situational and attitudinal, e.g., perceptions of registration attitudinal, e.g., perceptions of registration (jury service) and ultimately attitudes (jury service) and ultimately attitudes towards voting and politicstowards voting and politics

UK turnout trendsUK turnout trends

19501950 84%84%

19791979 76%76%

19971997 71.5%71.5%

20012001 59.4%59.4%

20052005 61.3%61.3%

The problemThe problem

‘‘It seems clear that low turnouts are It seems clear that low turnouts are likely to be a permanent likely to be a permanent phenomenon’ (Worcester et al)phenomenon’ (Worcester et al)

Making it easier to vote has limited Making it easier to vote has limited impact and other costs such as fraudimpact and other costs such as fraud

PR systems have short run impactPR systems have short run impact Compulsory voting controversialCompulsory voting controversial

What doesn’t help explanationWhat doesn’t help explanation

Mechanics of votingMechanics of voting Levels of interest in politics – highly Levels of interest in politics – highly

stable over time: very/fairly stable over time: very/fairly interested – 1973:60%, 2005:61%interested – 1973:60%, 2005:61%

Disappearance of tribal politics Disappearance of tribal politics (outside N.Ireland)(outside N.Ireland)

Fewer voters have strong party Fewer voters have strong party attachment, only 20% with strong attachment, only 20% with strong attachmentattachment

Turnout was higher in 2005Turnout was higher in 2005

If seat was marginal – this seems to If seat was marginal – this seems to be a mobilisation rather than a voter be a mobilisation rather than a voter interest effect, campaigning makes a interest effect, campaigning makes a differencedifference

Had a strong Lib Dem or minor party Had a strong Lib Dem or minor party presencepresence

Above average numbers of elderly Above average numbers of elderly and well educated votersand well educated voters

Social factorsSocial factors

Turnout well above the national Turnout well above the national average in safe Cons. seats and low average in safe Cons. seats and low in safe Labour seatsin safe Labour seats

Social exclusion matched by political Social exclusion matched by political exclusion: those in working class exclusion: those in working class occupations, have few educational occupations, have few educational qualifications or are unemployed are qualifications or are unemployed are less likely to voteless likely to vote

‘‘Duty to vote’Duty to vote’

Correlation between turnout and Correlation between turnout and duty to vote by age is very high: R duty to vote by age is very high: R squared = 0.963squared = 0.963

Age is a key variable, 37% of those Age is a key variable, 37% of those aged 18-24 voted, compared with aged 18-24 voted, compared with 75% of those who are 65+75% of those who are 65+

If this is a generational effect, If this is a generational effect, turnout is likely to continue to turnout is likely to continue to declinedecline

Other factorsOther factors

AB social class 71%, DE 54%AB social class 71%, DE 54% No gender differencesNo gender differences High levels of distrust in political High levels of distrust in political

parties, have lowest ratings across parties, have lowest ratings across Europe of any political institutionEurope of any political institution

Reflected in success of independentsReflected in success of independents But offer voters a structured choiceBut offer voters a structured choice

Core issue is low turnout of young Core issue is low turnout of young votersvoters

Not apathy but disengagement from Not apathy but disengagement from politicians and political processpoliticians and political process

Henn et al show they support Henn et al show they support democratic process but are sceptical democratic process but are sceptical of how it works and are turned off by of how it works and are turned off by politicians and political partiespoliticians and political parties

Young people do not consider Young people do not consider political system open to them or political system open to them or responsive to their needsresponsive to their needs

Not a homogeneous groupNot a homogeneous group

Big differences based on social class Big differences based on social class and education, some gender effects, and education, some gender effects, but no major ethnicity or regional but no major ethnicity or regional effectseffects

This is consistent with comparative This is consistent with comparative literature which suggests social literature which suggests social capital/networks important in capital/networks important in transition for young person to regular transition for young person to regular votervoter

Broad perspectivesBroad perspectives

Young people less involved because of Young people less involved because of lifestyles and ‘start up’ problemslifestyles and ‘start up’ problems

Campaigns focus on middle aged middle Campaigns focus on middle aged middle EnglandEngland

Young people have a ‘new politics’ Young people have a ‘new politics’ agenda, but membership in cause groups agenda, but membership in cause groups not highnot high

‘‘Generational’ – more difficult to be young, Generational’ – more difficult to be young, fewer ways of transmitting knowledge fewer ways of transmitting knowledge about politicsabout politics

ConclusionsConclusions

Problem is more one of alienation Problem is more one of alienation rather than apathyrather than apathy

There is a small core of young people There is a small core of young people engaged with new social movementsengaged with new social movements

Political system is failing to provide Political system is failing to provide stimuli to young people to engage, stimuli to young people to engage, hence crisis of democratic legitimacyhence crisis of democratic legitimacy