introduction to strategic futurist thinking
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T S V I B I S K A N D M I C A E L A Z I V W F S C O N F E R E N C E
S A N F R A N C I S C O , J U L Y 2 0 1 5
INTRODUCTION TO STRATEGIC FUTURIST THINKING
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SWOT/PEST ANALYSIS
•Strengths •Weaknesses•Opportunities•Threats
•Political•Economic•Social•Technological
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CONCEPTS TO LIVE BY - I
• Ideology Strategy
•Policy Tactics
•Grand Strategy www.tsvibisk.com
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CONCEPTS TO LIVE BY - II
•Policy of Limited Aims•Grand Strategic Joint•Strategy of Indirect Approach•Looking Backward Technique
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VOLITIONAL FUTURISMWhat future do we want?
Imagineering alternative futures: the primary task of the futurist
Imagination and logic: fundamental tools of creative futurism
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INTEGRATIVE THINKING
ProblemProblem
ProblemProblem
Solution
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NON-INTEGRATIVE THINKING
Problem Problem Problem Problem
Solution Solution Solution Solution
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LE CHATELIER’S PRINCIPLE•Why Doomsday Scenarios are always wrong
•Alternative imagineered futures actually change present reality
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AMERICAN RESPONSE TO 9/11
Greatest Grand Strategic Failure
in American History
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SELF-INFLICTED DAMAGE1. Damage to economy:• Short term- several trillion dollars of debt• Long term- U.S will have tens of billions of
dollars a year for veterans expenses for the next 50 years.
2. Damage to world standing3. Damage to moral self-confidence
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‘WAR ON TERROR’: A LUDICROUS CONCEPT
•Terror is a tactic.•You cannot wage war on a tactic.•You can wage war on a policy or an ideology, but not on a tactic.
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DEFINING THE ENEMY
• Ideological fanatics do not have a virgin birth: they are cultivated and nourished primarily by petrodollars
• Over $100 billion Saudi /Qatari money over the past 20-30 years
• Iran's Nuclear Program
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GRAND-STRATEGIC JOINTS
Weakening Oil as a vital international commodity the first and most vital grand- strategic joint in the war
on terror
Empowering women - the greatest long term subversive threat to Islamist extremism. Gender Apartheid must be made a crime against
humanity
5th Geneva Convention for Asymmetric Warfare must be convened
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New programs spawn
new technology
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PROCEDURE
1.Using strategies of indirect approach
2.Identifying the Grand Strategic Joint3.Applying multi-dimensional thinking4.Using Grand Strategy to enhance
ideological values and aims
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