introduction to technological singularity

Antonio Marcos Alberti

4 de Julho de 2017Aureliano Chaves 18h 45min

(c) Antonio Alberti, Inatel, 2014.

TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY


FOR TOO LONG WE TALK ABOUT TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION AND THE RATE AT WHICH IT OCCURS.


VERY OFTEN, PEOPLE CITE MOORE'S LAW AS AN EXAMPLE OF LAW CAPABLE OF PREDICTING TECHNOLOGICAL

DEVELOPMENTS IN COMPUTING POWER.

Gordon Moore, 2004.


“THE QUANTITY OF TRANSISTORS THAT

CAN BE PLACED INEXPENSIVELY ON

AN INTEGRATED CIRCUIT HAS

DOUBLED APPROXIMATELY

EVERY TWO YEARS.”


MORE RECENTLY, RAYMOND KURZWEIL PRESENTED A THEORY FOR TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION AND A NEW LAW THAT EXPANDS MOORE LAW TO DESCRIBE THE EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OF TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES

THE LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS


“EVOLUTION APPLIES POSITIVE FEEDBACK IN THAT THE MORE CAPABLE METHODS RESULTING FROM ONE STAGE OF EVOLUTIONARY PROGRESS ARE USED TO CREATE THE NEXT STAGE.”


“AS A RESULT, THE RATE OF PROGRESS OF AN EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS INCREASES EXPONENTIALLY OVER TIME.”

“A CORRELATE OF THE ABOVE OBSERVATION IS THAT THE RETURNS OF AN EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS (E.G., THE SPEED, COST-EFFECTIVENESS, OR OVERALL “POWER” OF A PROCESS) INCREASE EXPONENTIALLY OVER TIME.”


“IN ANOTHER POSITIVE FEEDBACK LOOP, AS A PARTICULAR EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS BECOMES MORE EFFECTIVE (E.G., COST EFFECTIVE), GREATER RESOURCES ARE DEPLOYED TOWARD THE FURTHER PROGRESS OF THAT PROCESS.”

“THIS RESULTS IN A SECOND LEVEL OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH (I.E., THE RATE OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH ITSELF GROWS EXPONENTIALLY).”


tee


KURZWEIL PRESENTED A SERIES OF FIGURES SHOWING EXPONENTIAL GROWTH TRENDS FOR MEMORY CAPACITY (DRAM IN BITS PER DOLLAR), MICROPROCESSOR CLOCK SPEED (HZ), TRANSISTORS PER CHIP, PROCESSOR PERFORMANCE (MIPS), MAGNETIC STORAGE (BITS PER DOLLAR).


“THE SINGULARITY IS AN ERA IN WHICH OUR INTELLIGENCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NONBIOLOGICAL AND TRILLIONS OF TIMES MORE POWERFUL THAN IT IS TODAY—THE DAWNING OF A NEW CIVILIZATION THAT WILL ENABLE US TO TRANSCEND OUR BIOLOGICAL LIMITATIONS AND AMPLIFY OUR CREATIVITY.”


ACCORDING TO THE WIKIPEDIA, THE FIRST USE OF THE TERM SINGULARITY IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE MATHEMATICIAN JOHN VON NEUMANN.

IN 1958, REGARDING A SUMMARY OF A CONVERSATION WITH VON NEUMANN, STANISLAW ULAM DESCRIBED “EVER ACCELERATING PROGRESS OF TECHNOLOGY AND CHANGES IN THE MODE OF HUMAN LIFE, WHICH GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF APPROACHING SOME ESSENTIAL SINGULARITY IN THE HISTORY OF THE RACE BEYOND WHICH HUMAN AFFAIRS, AS WE KNOW THEM, COULD NOT CONTINUE.”


ACCORDING TO THIS BLOG, THE TERM SINGULARITY WAS USED BY THE FIRST TIME IN A JANUARY 1983 ISSUE OF OMNI MAGAZINE.

“WE ARE AT THE POINT OF ACCELERATING THE EVOLUTION OF INTELLIGENCE ITSELF.”


“THE EXACT MEANS TO ACCOMPLISHING THIS PHENOMENON CANNOT YET BE PREDICTED - AND IS NOT IMPORTANT.”Vernor Vinge


“WHETHER OUR WORK IS CAST IN SILICON OR DNA WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE ULTIMATE RESULTS.

THE EVOLUTION OF HUMAN INTELLIGENCE TOOK MILLIONS OF YEARS. WE WILL DEVISE AN EQUIVALENT ADVANCE IN A FRACTION OF THAT TIME. WE WILL SOON CREATE INTELLIGENCES GREATER THAN OUR OWN.” Vernor Vinge


“WHEN THIS HAPPENS, HUMAN HISTORY WILL HAVE REACHED A KIND OF SINGULARITY, AN INTELLECTUAL TRANSITION AS IMPENETRABLE AS THE KNOTTED SPACE-TIME AT THE CENTER OF A BLACK HOLE, AND THE WORLD WILL PASS FAR BEYOND OUR UNDERSTANDING.” Vernor Vinge


DEFINITIONS OF SINGULARITY:

• 1847 - R. THORNTON, EDITOR OF THE PRIMITIVE EXPOUNDER • 1863 - S. BUTLER - DARWIN AMONG THE MACHINES. • 1951 - A. TURIN - INTELLIGENT MACHINERY: A HERETICAL

THEORY. • 1958 - J. NEUMANN - CONVERSATION WITH S. ULAM. • 1983 - V. VINGE - OMNI MAGAZINE. • 1988 - H. MORAVEC - MIND CHILDREN. • 1995 - T. KACZYNSKI- UNABOMBER MANIFESTO. • 1997 - N. BOSTROM - HOW LONG BEFORE SUPERINTELLIGENCE. • 2006 - R. KURZWEIL - THE SINGULARITY IS NEAR.


“… A FUTURE PERIOD DURING WHICH THE PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE WILL BE SO RAPID, ITS IMPACT SO DEEP, THAT HUMAN LIFE WILL BE IRREVERSIBLY TRANSFORMED. … THIS EPOCH WILL TRANSFORM THE CONCEPTS THAT WE RELY ON TO GIVE MEANING TO OUR LIFES, FROM OUR BUSINESS MODELS TO THE CYCLE OF HUMAN LIFE, INCLUDING DEATH ITSELF.”

Raymond Kurzweil


ACCELERATING CHANGE:

“WE CAN PREDICT WITH FAIR PRECISION WHEN NEW TECHNOLOGIES WILL ARRIVE, AND WHEN THEY WILL CROSS KEY THRESHOLDS, LIKE THE CREATION OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE.”

EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGICAL GROWTH WILL CREATE THE IDEAL SUBSTRATE FOR SUPERINTELLIGENCES.

Eliezer Yudkowsky


EVENT HORIZON:

“TO KNOW WHAT A SUPERHUMAN INTELLIGENCE WOULD DO, YOU WOULD HAVE TO BE AT LEAST THAT SMART YOURSELF.”

WE WILL MERGE WITH MACHINES TO CREATE THE SUPERINTELLIGENCES!

Eliezer Yudkowsky


SOME POSSIBLE PATHS TO TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY

• SUPERCOMPUTING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE • HACKING HUMAN INTELLIGENCE ON SUPERCOMPUTERS • SUPERCOMPUTING STIMULATED EVOLUTION • SELF-IMPROVING SWARMS OF MICRO/NANO ROBOTS • SELF-IMPROVING ROBOTICS • SELF-IMPROVING CONVERGENT INFORMATION ARCHITECTURES

FOR EVERYTHING. • HUMAN-MACHINE CONVERGENCE.


KURZWEIL + GOOGLE


2045 INITIATIVE


TRANSHUMANISM “INTELLIGENCE WANTS TO BE FREE BUT EVERYWHERE IS IN CHAINS. IT IS IMPRISONED BY BIOLOGY AND ITS INEVITABLE SCARCITY.

BIOLOGY MANDATES NOT ONLY VERY LIMITED DURABILITY, DEATH AND POOR MEMORY RETENTION, BUT ALSO LIMITED SPEED OF COMMUNICATION, TRANSPORTATION, LEARNING, INTERACTION AND EVOLUTION.”

FROM:


TRANSHUMANISM“TRANSHUMANISTS OF THE WORLD UNITE – WE HAVE IMMORTALITY TO GAIN AND ONLY BIOLOGY TO LOSE. TOGETHER, WE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CHAINS OF BIOLOGY AND TRANSCEND SCARCITY, SEX, AGE, ETHNICITY, RACE, DEATH AND EVEN TIME AND SPACE.

IN SHORT, TRANSHUMANISTS EVERYWHERE MUST SUPPORT THE REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT AGAINST DEATH AND THE EXISTING BIOLOGICAL ORDER OF THINGS.”

FROM:


“… BY THE END OF THIS CENTURY MOST SENTIENT BEINGS ON THIS PLANET MAY BE A COMBINATION OF WET-ORGANIC AND DRY-COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE.”

Giulio Prisco


ARE YOU A SINGULARITIAN?

ARE YOU A TRANSHUMANIST?

ARE YOU READY TO CONVERGE WITH A MACHINE?

DO YOU WANT TO LIVE FOREVER?


THANK YOU!!

Antonio Marcos Alberti

introduction to technological singularity

Engineering