intuicyjne zarządzanie przedsięwzięciem copyright, 2001 © jerzy r. nawrocki...

Intuicyjne zarządzanie Intuicyjne zarządzanie przedsięwzięciemprzedsięwzięciem

Copyright, 2001 © Jerzy R. Nawrocki

[email protected]@put.poznan.pl

www.cs.put.poznan.pl/jnawrocki/pspwww.cs.put.poznan.pl/jnawrocki/psp

Doskonalenie procesów Doskonalenie procesów programowych programowych

Wykład 4Wykład 4

Doskonalenie procesów Doskonalenie procesów programowych programowych

Wykład 4Wykład 4

J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów..

IntroductionIntroduction

.. Project planning .... Project planning ..



Time & defect recordingTime & defect recording

Coding strd+Size measuremnt+PIPCoding strd+Size measuremnt+PIP

Size estimating + Test reportSize estimating + Test report

Task & schedule planningTask & schedule planning

Code & design reviewsCode & design reviews Design templates Design templates

Cyclic dev.Cyclic dev.

BaselineBaseline

PlanningPlanning

QualityQuality

CyclicCyclic



When to plan?When to plan? Always!Always!



begin .. end

500 LOC500 LOC


Plan of the lecturePlan of the lecture

• IntroductionIntroduction

• Delphi methodDelphi method• Schedule estimatingSchedule estimating• Progress trackingProgress tracking• Risk managementRisk management


Delphi methodDelphi method

Rand Corporation, Boehm’81Rand Corporation, Boehm’81

• A few experts individually A few experts individually produce effort estimates.produce effort estimates.

• A Delphi process is used to A Delphi process is used to reach a consensus. reach a consensus.

PythiaPythia



1. Experts get the 1. Experts get the specificationspecification and an and an estimation formestimation form

2. They meet for 2. They meet for discussiondiscussion (project goals, (project goals, assumptions, estimation issues)assumptions, estimation issues)

3. Each expert 3. Each expert anonymouslyanonymously lists the lists the taskstasks and and estimatesestimates the size the size

4. The estimates go to the 4. The estimates go to the estimate estimate moderatormoderator. He tabulates the results and . He tabulates the results and returns them to the experts.returns them to the experts.

The Delphi procedureThe Delphi procedureThe Delphi procedureThe Delphi procedure

The estimateThe estimate

moderatormoderator



Estimator: Jerzy Nawrocki Date: 22.06.1999Estimator: Jerzy Nawrocki Date: 22.06.1999

Project: Sorting routineProject: Sorting routine

The estimates from the 1st round:The estimates from the 1st round:

e e EE MM e e e e

0 20 40 60 80 1000 20 40 60 80 100

e - estimates, e - estimates, EE - - your estimateyour estimate, , MM - - median estimatemedian estimate

Your estimate for the next round: ......... Hours.Your estimate for the next round: ......... Hours.

A rationale for your estimate: ............................................A rationale for your estimate: ............................................

........................................................................................................................................................................................



5. The experts meet to discuss the results. 5. The experts meet to discuss the results. They review the They review the taskstasks they have defined they have defined but but notnot their their size estimatessize estimates..

6. The procedure is repeated from step 3 6. The procedure is repeated from step 3 until the estimates are acceptably nearuntil the estimates are acceptably near

The Delphi procedureThe Delphi procedureThe Delphi procedureThe Delphi procedure

The estimateThe estimate

moderatormoderator



• IntroductionIntroduction• Delphi methodDelphi method

• Schedule estimatingSchedule estimating• Progress trackingProgress tracking• Risk managementRisk management


Schedule estimatingSchedule estimating

Size

Effort Calendar

Schedule

Availability factor



10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 [h]10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 [h]

1w1w 2w2w 3w3w 4w4w 5w5w 6w6w 7w7w

Task 1 Task 2 Task 3



Plan ActualWeek Direct

hoursCumulativehours

Directhours

Cumulativehours

1.06 20 208.06 25 45

15.06 15 60

Project: ColorMap Data: 23.05.1999Project: ColorMap Data: 23.05.1999



Plan ActualTask Hours Cumulative

hoursWeek Data

Detailed design 20 20 1.06Coding IO 25 45 8.06Coding graph 15 60 15.06

Project: ColorMap Data: Project: ColorMap Data: 23.05.199923.05.1999



• IntroductionIntroduction• Delphi methodDelphi method• Schedule estimatingSchedule estimating

• Progress trackingProgress tracking• Risk managementRisk management


Progress trackingProgress tracking

ProblemProblem: how to track a progress : how to track a progress when a sequence of tasks is when a sequence of tasks is rearranged? rearranged?

Earned ValueEarned Value Method: Method:

• Each task is assigned a number of Each task is assigned a number of credit points.credit points.

• To earn the points assigned to a To earn the points assigned to a task, the task, the task must be completedtask must be completed..

• The points reflect ‘The points reflect ‘timetime complexitycomplexity’ ’ and are and are normalisednormalised to 1000 points. to 1000 points.

T1T1 T2T2

T1T1T2T2



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1 2 3 4

Weeks

Cu

mu

lati

ve E

V

Actual

Planned

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1 2 3 4

Weeks

Cu

mu

lati

ve E

V

Actual

Planned

Earned Value MethodEarned Value Method



Plan ActualWeek Direct

hoursCum.hours

Cum.EV

Directhours

Cum.hours

Cum.EV

1.06 20 20 2508.06 25 45 670

15.06 15 60 1000

Project: ColorMap Data: 23.05.1999Project: ColorMap Data: 23.05.1999



Plan ActualTask Hours Cum.

hoursEV Week Date EV

Detailed design 20 20 333 1.06Coding IO 25 45 417 8.06Coding graph 15 60 250 15.06



I’ve forgotten about

task Tj !!!


Adjusted EV:Adjusted EV:

New_EVNew_EVii= x1000= x1000timetimeii timetimejj + + time timekk



Plan ActualTask Hours Cum.

hoursEV Week Date EV

Detailed design 20 20 200 1.06Coding IO 25 45 250 8.06Coding graph 15 60 150 15.06Writing report 40 100 400 29.06




• IntroductionIntroduction• Delphi methodDelphi method• Schedule estimatingSchedule estimating• Progress trackingProgress tracking

• Risk managementRisk management


Risk managementRisk management

What is a risk?What is a risk?



Two approaches to risk

Reactive ProactiveProactive


Risk description


ProbabilityProbability

ImpactImpact• catastrophiccatastrophic• criticalcritical• marginalmarginal• negligiblenegligible


RMMM


RMMM = Risk Mitigation, Monitoring, and RMMM = Risk Mitigation, Monitoring, and ManagementManagement

Mitigation= minimising the probabilityMitigation= minimising the probability

Monitoring= observing factors/indicatorsMonitoring= observing factors/indicators

Management= if it happens ..Management= if it happens ..


Risk analysis


IBM: > 100 risk factorsIBM: > 100 risk factors

For each risk factor an MMM plan.For each risk factor an MMM plan.

Risk management becomes a project in Risk management becomes a project in itself!itself!

Pareto analysis: the 80-20 principlePareto analysis: the 80-20 principle



StrengthsStrengthsStrengthsStrengths

OpportunitiesOpportunitiesOpportunitiesOpportunities

WeaknessesWeaknessesWeaknessesWeaknesses

ThreatsThreatsThreatsThreats

Inte

rnal

Inte

rnal

Ext

erna

lE

xter

nal

PositivePositive NegativeNegative


SummarySummary

• Work statement & SWOTWork statement & SWOT• Effort estimation & Delphi Effort estimation & Delphi

methodmethod• Schedule estimatingSchedule estimating• Risk & RMMM PlanRisk & RMMM Plan• Progress tracking, EV and Progress tracking, EV and

corrective actionscorrective actions


Quality assessmentQuality assessment

1. What is your general 1. What is your general impression ? (1 - 6)impression ? (1 - 6)

2. Was it too slow or too fast ?2. Was it too slow or too fast ?

3. Did you learn something 3. Did you learn something important to you ?important to you ?

4. What to improve and how ?4. What to improve and how ?

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