I n v e n t o r y m a n a g e m e n t s y s t e m f o r S M B

An experienced manager for any goods

CEOAlexander Gritsay

For Startup Village Resident

1

Project goals

1. Commercialization of desktop-version

2. Creation of SaaS - version

2

Problem

Inefficient use of floating assets:

commodity deficiency, unhappy clients

excessive inventorylow turnover

loosing ~43% of profit per year

Industry looses– $196 bln per year

existing solutions for SMB are not effective

staff of analysts requires big costs

3

SolutionImplementation of innovative automate inventory management system Forecast NOW!:

* Forecast accuracy increases at 20% compared with other algorithms due to used neural networks and genetic optimization

Demand forecasting*

Optimal stock calculation

release of up to 40% of floating assets reduction stock level up to 75% reduction of safety stock program replaces 5 analysts

4

Technology description

5

Forecast NOW!

Effective Tool, accessible for non-specialists

Base technology– neural networks

and genetic algorithms

AlgorithmINTERDEMAND©

Automatic selection of forecasting

method

AlgorithmOPTIGEN©Automatic

selection of optimal mathematic models

parameters

Product descriptionNew, intuitive clear inventory management system

(SCM – Supply Chain Management)

Effective

easily integrates with 1С, SAP, Oracle, Microsoft Dynamics

saves to 10x more than its cost

doesn’t require special knowledge

works with intermittent demand

forecast with high accuracy(20-100% better then competitive solutions)

Automatic

automatically takes into account the additional factors(weather, currency rates, conjugate sales)

automatically select optimal forecasting model

takes in account additional external constraints 6

SCM-applications market

$1.3

$1. 2 $0.4

$0.2 $0.1

$3.6

Companies, bln. $SAP

Oracle

JDA

Manhattan Associates

RedPrairie

Прочие

7

Potential world market of our system is $0.67 bln, as such applications take 10%, whole SCM market $6.7 bln. *

* - www.idc.com , 2011

$3.3

$2.2

$0.2

$1.0

Regions, bln $

USAEULatin America Other

Market for Forecast NOW!

8

We know our consumer– SMB, Wholesale and retail trade enterprises with more then 2’000 SKU and storage volume from $200K, our world market $670 mln.

SCM

SCP Planning

Demand forecast

Inventory management

Replenishment management

SCE Execution

Execution Delivery

Forecast NOW! performs at least 25% functions

55%45%

Market SCM $6.7 bln

LargeSMB

Russian Market

9

First year – Russian and CIS Market,

Inventory management systems sales in Russia $67 mln. per year.

Second year – entry on world market. Expected turnover in three years $6,7 mln. per year.

1С takes near 80% market for SMB in Russia

1С hasn’t such functionality

Forecast NOW! easily integrates with 1С and saves 10х more than costs

consumers confirmed Forecast NOW! efficiency

Forecast NOW! takes 3% Russian market in 3 years

$2mln. per year

Competitive advantagestypical representatives SMB TOP-10 in Russia and world

ФакторForecast

NOW!Goods4

CastDeductor

ISO Lokad

Forecast accuracy

Initial price (K$.) 4 47 53 16

Implementation (months) 0.5 2 3 1

Required knowledge General Special Special Special

SaaS-version

Decision support

10

Business modeldevelopment, selling, implementation, support of software

11

Development Implementation Support

Start version

Download from siteRestricted number of forecastsEscalating customer base

Desktop

License Subscription feeImplementationConsulting

SaaS

Pay for forecastService subscriptionConsulting

Investments Works

Amount Source

R&D; tests; pilot implementations; certificate on program ;

$13K

$33K

desktop-version; 4 paid implementations (amount - $25K) interest from 50 companies start work on SaaS-version.

Completed

12

Financial performances

Index Value

Investments $0.4 mln.

Investor NPV (40%, 3 years), $1.7 млн.

IRR (3 years) 155%

break-even point 9 months

payback period 20 months

Investor ROI (3 year) 5,1х

13

14

Discount rate 40% Investor share 35% P/S 2,5 Yr 0 Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Exit Yr 3Sales, k RUR 7 580 40 848 200 648 501 620

CF, k RUR (2 110) 14 813 66 527

Disc factor 0,71

0,51 0,36 0,36

DCF, k RUR (10 534) (1 507) 7 558 24 244 182 806

DCF, k USD (334) (48)

240 770 5 803

Investor CF, k USD -334 0 0 5 574

ROI (discounted) 5,07 ROI (simple) 15,67 IRR 155%

Investor NPV, k USD 1697

Financial performances

Plan of product realization

15

Jan.’15 Jan.’16

5 clients 95clients

238 clients1’005 clients

Desktop Sales

Entry on world market

SaaS Sales

June.’14June.’13

Expenditure pattern

Salary47%

Taxes7%

Advertising10%

SaaS costs15%

Contingencies9%

Other12%

$1,3 mln per 3 years(investments and reinvested profit)

16

Team

17

Business• Grigoriev Alexey,

strategy• Viktorov Evgeny,

CFO• Rayevsky Maxim,

Sales

Technology• Varankin Dmitry,

CTO• Sorokin Sergey,

Director of R&D

Development• Gritsay Alexander,

CEO

Forecast NOW!MSc IT

PhD IT

MSc IT

MSc EconomicsPhD

Economics

MSc IT

Thank you for attention!

  

Address: Russia, Tver, Universitetsky per., 9а, of. 126.

Tel: +7 (4822) 79-02-25

E-mail: info@forecastnow.ru

Website: 

www.forecastnow.ru прогнозируйсейчас.рф

For Startup Village

Contacts:

18