B) Ice jam study in the Grand River

1,3

4

Investigating Flooding Pattern Using Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) in the City of Painesville, Ohio

Niraj Lamichhane1, Suresh Sharma2 1Graduate Student, Civil/Environmental Engineering Program, Youngstown State University, One University Plaza, Youngstown, OH 44555; (330)-259-6019, Email: nlamichhane@student.ysu.edu, 2Assistant Professor, Civil/Environmental Engineering Program, Youngstown State University, One University Plaza, Youngstown, OH 44555; (330)941-1741, Email: ssharma06@ysu.edu

Study area

This study was conducted on a Grand River watershed of the Northern Ohio (Figure 1). The total watershed area of the

outlet of the Grand River is approximately 705 mi2. Major portions of the watershed is covered with forest (44%), water

bodies and wetlands (14.7%) and developed/urban land (10.3%).

Methodology

The methodology is briefly sketched in section A.

Objectives

1. To understand ice jam and its contribution to probable future floods.

2. To prepare different year return period flooding maps in order to warn the local people about the potential flood

hazards.

Abstract

The majority of the Rivers in the northern belt of Ohio undergo freezing in the winter season with a possible consequence of an ice jam formation. As a result, sudden flooding can be experienced even though the anticipated precipitation is not significant. Since river ice jams can generate extreme flood events, detailed monitoring of ice jam record is

needed for the prediction of ice jam break up in order to improve the conventional hydrologic forecast. In this research, Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) has been developed using high resolution datasets, LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) and field verified cross section. The hydraulic model, HEC-RAS has been

used to predict the downstream flooding pattern and prepare flood inundation maps based on upstream gage height. The potential locations for additional gage stations have been investigated to ensure downstream flood forecast a few hours in advance and provide sufficient evacuation time. In addition, flood maps of various return periods have been

prepared. Our preliminary analysis indicates that 500 year return period flood is destructive.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Dis

cha

rge

(cfs

)

Date

Observed discharge

Simulated discharge

a) Streamflow calibration at the USGS gage station 04212100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Dis

cha

rge

(cfs

)

Date

Observed discharge

Simulated discharge

b) Streamflow validation at the USGS gage station 04212100

Figure 8. Ice jam upstream of Fairport Harbor in

2014

Figure 7: Historical ice jam locations at various sections along the Grand River, Ohio

Result and Discussions

Flood from Harpersfield (upstream) takes approximately 4-6 hours (depending upon the nature of the flood) to reach the City

of Painesville.

Hydraulic analysis of the Grand River was conducted using HEC-RAS (Figure 2). Cross sections of the Grand River to be used

in HEC-RAS was verified from the field survey (Figure 3).

The model was calibrated and validated (Figure 4).

Floods of different return period are listed in Table 1 and the ice jam locations are listed in Table 2. Our preliminary

investigation concludes that the Vrooman bridge, Lakeland Freeway bridge and High Street bridge along the section of the

Grand River might be flooded (during 500 year return period)

Flood plain delineation of 500 year return period using HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS (Figure 6) shows followings:

• around 12 houses have a high chance of flooding near the junction of the Big Creek and Grand River;

• nearly 25 houses and 4 apartments will be flooded in Steel Ave and Grand River Ave ;

• some of the areas Kiwanis Recreation Park and Casement Golf Course just downstream of Main St. bridge in the City of

Painesville and Hidden Valley Park in Madison will be flooded;

• nearly 11 apartments and some houses near the banks of the Grand River in Huntington road and Hidden Harbor of

Painesville including some other harbors are under the risk of flooding;

The historical climatic study shows that the formation of ice jam is more often in Neutral period of ENSO phases while

showing the least chances in La Niña period (Figure 10).

Melting of ice in the late winter due to increase in mean air temperature has a significant contribution to winter flooding. 0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Dis

cha

rge

(cfs

)

Date

Observed discharge

Simulated discharge

c) Streamflow validation at the USGS gage station 04212100

Figure 1. A map showing study area (the Grand River) spreading out to four counties of Ohio. ( Lake, Ashtabula, Geauga and Trumbull)

Figure 4. Calibration (a), and validation (b & c) of the HEC-RAS

Figure 3. Field verification of cross sections

Table 1. Flood discharge in the Grand River and it’s tributaries

S.N. Locations Dates of occurrence Description

1. 0.1 mile upstream of Main Street Bridge, Painesville 2014

2. Upstream section of Grand River near E Walnut Ave. 1981, 1982, 1984, 1988, 2003,

2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011

Most of them were breakup jams

and some were releasing jams

3.

Near Main Street Bridge, Painesville

1978

4. Just upstream of Vrooman Bridge, Vrooman Rd 2014 Blockage of Vrooman road

5.

Bank St., Painesville, OH 2014 -

5.

Water St, Fairport Harbor, OH

2014 -

6.

Near 4842 Bailey Rd, Madison, OH - -

Table 2. Location and periods of ice jams in the Grand River

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200

400

600

800

1000

1200

La Niña El Niño Neutral

Acc

um

ula

ted

Fre

ezin

g D

egre

e D

ays

(0F

)

Figure 9. Box plot showing variation of AFDD during different

ENSO phases as an evidence of climatic variability in ice jam

Conclusion

Many houses, bridges and people near the banks of the Grand River will be under the risk of 500 year return period flood.

Early flood warning systems should be developed to provide sufficient warnings for the protection of lives and properties.

Figure 6. Grand River flood plain delineation using HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS showing the flood plain near the City of

Painesville (a), and at the junction of the Mill Creek and the Grand River (b)

10 year flood

50 year flood

100 year flood

500 year flood

a) Details of flood plain near the City of Painesville area

City of

Painesville

Fairport

Harbor

Lake Erie

b) Details of flood plain near the junction of the Mill Creek and

Grand River

Lake Erie

Painesville

Big Creek

S.N Stream Name

Flood discharge (cfs)

10 years 50 years 100 years 500 years

1. Grand River upstream at Harpersfield 8,870 11,200 12,300 14,400

2. Mill Creek at the junction of Grand River 1,420 2,030 2,300 2,890

3. Grand River at the junction of Mill Creek 10,290 13,230 14,600 17,290

4. Painecreek at the junction of Grand River 2,120 3,080 3,500 4,460

5. Grand River at the junction of Painecreek 12,410 16,310 18,100 21,750

6. Big Creek at the junction of Grand River 3,390 4,940 5,620 7,170

7. Grand River at the junction of Big Creek 15,800 21,250 23,720 28,920

Figure 5. High flood level in different bridges from the HEC-RAS simulation

b) Water Level at Lakeland Freeway

bridge during 500 year flood

c) Water Level at High Street bridge

during 500 year flood

a) Water Level at Vrooman bridge

during 500 year flood

Acknowledgement

Authors would like to acknowledge for the grant support provided by the Ohio Sea Grant for this research.

A) Hydraulic analysis and flood plain delineation

Figure 2. Hydraulic model of the Grand River in HEC-RAS

b) XYZ perspective plot of Grand River

a) Plan view of Grand River (From Harpersfield to Fairport Harbor)

c) Longitudinal profile of the Grand River

Note: AFDD is an Accumulated Freezing Degree Days,

which is calculated using the summation of Freezing

Degree Days (FDD); that is, FDD = 32-Ta, where Ta is

mean temperature of air.

Figure 10. Relationship between AFDD, precipitation and discharge showing an increase in winter flooding due to

both precipitation and melting of ice (caused by increase in mean air temperature)

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