investment planning and management

43
INVESTMENT PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT SWISS EGYPTIAN PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT Co. A joint venture of CREDIT SUISSE and CONCORD Arab Public Relations Society Conference, Cairo – 14 October 2002 ince Abbas Hilmi, Chairman

Upload: alfredh

Post on 24-Jun-2015

201 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 1. INVESTMENT PLANNINGAND MANAGEMENT SWISS EGYPTIAN PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT Co. A joint venture of CREDIT SUISSE and CONCORD Arab Public Relations SocietyConference,Cairo 14 October2002 Prince Abbas Hilmi ,Chairman

2. CONTENTS

  • WEALTH MANAGEMENT
  • INVESTMENT PLANNING
  • THE CAPITAL MARKETS
  • EMERGING MARKETS : GENERAL INDICATORS
  • THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR EGYPT
  • CONCLUSION

3. WEALTH MANAGEMENT 4.

  • Building wealth is a difficult task
  • Protecting wealth and making it grow is even harder
  • A relatively large number of people build wealth
  • A relatively small number of people are able to protect their wealth and make it grow to pass on to their children and grandchildren
  • Accumulated wealth is subject to constant pressure from many different sources
  • Without effective planning and sound investments, family capital will diminish sharply over the years

WEALTH MANAGEMENT 5. GROWTH AND EROSION OF FAMILY CAPITAL WITHOUT EFFECTIVE PLANNING AND SOUND INVESTMENTS 6. INVESTMENT PLANNING 7.

  • TIME HORIZON
    • HOLDING PERIOD IMPACTS RETURN
    • MATCH ASSETS WITH LIABILITIES
  • CHANCE OF LOSS
    • ABSOLUTE LOSS
    • PURCHASING POWER LOSS
  • EMOTION
    • ANXIETY
    • EUPHORIA

8. POWER OF COMPOUNDING Investor B10 10 $4,000 Year-End 1989-1999 $40,000 $133,600 Hypothetical Investment in Stocks Investor A10 20 $2,000 Year-End 1979-1999 Years Contributing: Holding Period Annual Amount Contributed: Total Amount Invested Compounded Value atYear-End 1999 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $20,000 $295,400 SOURCE : IBBOTSON ASSOCIATES 9. THE CAPITAL MARKETS 10. WHY INVEST IN STOCKS?

  • THE CHARACTERISTICS OF STOCK OWNERSHIP
  • Superior long-term returns
  • Inflation hedge
  • Short-term volatility demands a long-term investment time horizon

11. OVER SHORT PERIODSSTOCKS CAN BE VOLATILE MONTHLY RETURNS STANDARD AND POORS 500 INDEXDATA SOURCE : IBBOTSON ASSOCIATES 12. ROLLING ANNUAL RETURNS 1926 - 1992 STANDARD AND POORS 500 INDEXDATA SOURCE : IBBOTSON ASSOCIATES 13. ROLLING 5 YEAR RETURNS 1926-1992 STANDARD AND POORS 500 INDEXDATA SOURCE : IBBOTSON ASSOCIATES 14. ROLLING 15 YEAR RETURNS 1926-1992 STANDARD AND POORS 500 INDEXDATA SOURCE : IBBOTSON ASSOCIATES 15. RISK OF STOCK MARKET LOSS OVER TIME 1926-1999 SOURCE : IBBOTSON ASSOCIATES Periods with Gain Periods with Loss 100% 60 Fifteen-Year Periods 90% 10% 70 Five-Year Periods 73% 27% 74 One-Year Periods 16. WHILE TREASURY BILLS-APPEAR BENIGN 17. INFLATION RISK: THE IMPACT ON WEALTH 1979-1999 Hypothetical value of $1 invested at year-end 1979 Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes 17.9% 10.7% $27 $7.62 Average Return Ending Wealth $1 $10 $100 1979 Stocks Bonds 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 SOURCE : IBBOTSON ASSOCIATES Inflation-Adjusted Stocks Inflation-Adjusted Bonds 13.3% 6.4% $12 $3.47 18. WHY INVEST IN FIXED INCOME?

  • THE BENEFITS OF FIXED INCOME INVESTING
  • Reduced portfolio volatility
  • Greater stability of income
  • Preservation of capital
  • Predictability of total return

19. BONDS PRODUCE GREATER INCOME 1970-1999 Based on annual data over the period 1970-1999 Bonds 85% 6% 9% Stocks 2% 73% 25% Capital Appreciation Income Reinvestment of Income SOURCE : IBBOTSON ASSOCIATES 20. EMERGING MARKETS : GENERAL INDICATORS 21. Source : Salomon Smith BarneyVALUATION: PRICE-TO-EARNINGS RATIO (TRAILING) The average trailing P/E in the emerging markets in August 2002 was16 x GOOD 22. Source : Salomon Smith BarneyVALUATION: PRICE-TO-EARNINGS (2002 FORECASTS) The emerging markets average forecast P/E ratio rose in August 2002 to 12X GOOD 23. Source : Salomon Smith BarneyVALUATION: EARNINGS YIELD GAP Israel Brazil Venezuela Turkey Argentina The average earnings yield gap in the emerging markets is 3.4% in August 2002 GOOD 24. Source : Salomon Smith BarneyRISK: REAL FX RATE VALUATION GOOD Argentina Brazil South Africa Venezuela Colombia Egypt Philippines Chile Hong Kong Thailand Pakistan Average Singapore Taiwan Israel China Turkey Malaysia Peru 25. Source : Salomon Smith BarneyRISK: 18-MONTH BETA The average beta in the emerging markets remained unchanged during August 2002 at1.0 GOOD 26. THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR EGYPT 27. Stock market prices Corporate results Macro data Balance of payment THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR EGYPT 28.

  • Mortgage Law
  • Flexible Monetary Policy
  • Egypt-EU Association Agreement in July 2001
  • Bias towards reducing lending rates in the fall of 2001
  • A boost in mergers and acquisitions activity

FUNDAMENTAL REFORMS 29.

  • S ale of 29 companies for LE 12 b n in 2000
  • A dditionalsale of14 companies for LE 4.2 b n in 2001and 6 companies for LE 2.3 bn in 2002
  • 11 6companies sold (through mergers and acquisitions) with a total value of LE 3 5b nover the past 5 years
  • Foreignersrepresent6 4 % of these transactions

PRIVATISATION 30. Nominal GDP (at current market prices)FY 1986 - 2002* Source: International Financial Statistics Yearbook 2001. Ministry of Economy, Monthly Economic Digest, May2002 & Sept. 2002. Quarterly Economic Digest April June 2000, CBE Monthly Report August 2002. *2001/02 figure is projected by the Ministry of Economy. Average Annual Inflation 1987 - 2002* STRONG ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS 31. Budget Deficit as % of GDP 1991 2002* Source : Ministry of Economy, Quarterly Economic Digest, April June 2000, Monthly Economic Digest February 2002 & September 2002 CBE Monthly Report August 2002. *2001/02 figure is projected by the Ministry of Economy. Egypts Foreign Debt as % of GDP 1992 2002 STRONG ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS -CONTINUED 32. STRONG ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS -CONTINUED Current Account as % of GDP / Balance of Payments as % of GDP1994 2002* Source: Ministry of Economy, Monthly Economic Digest, August 2001 & September 2002. *2001/02 figure is projected by the Ministry of Economy. 33. STRONG ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS -CONTINUED Foreign Reserves in US$ million1992 - 2002 Source: Ministry of Economy, Quarterly Economic Digest, March June 2002. Ministry of Economy, Monthly Economic Digest, September 2002 Media releases US $against Egyptian Pound 1992 January 2002 34.

  • Mergers and Acquisitions
  • Earnings & Profits
  • Funds results since the start of the year

35. MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS Source: Financial Securities, Cairo & Alexandria Stock Exchanges, September 2002 Monthly Bulletin. 36. EARNINGS AND PROFITS 37. FUNDS RESULTS

  • All the funds distribute except Banque du Caire Fund and National Bank of Egypt Fund I
  • **Figures of NAV as of 3 January 2002 were used since no figures for 31 December 2001 were published.
  • The S&P IFC index on: 3/1/02:43 3/10/2002:42.25% Change:- 1.74%

38. STOCK MARKET PERFORMANC E 1JANUARY 1996 TO30SEPTEMBER 2002 S&P IFC GLOBAL INDEX - EGYPT 39. MARKET UPDATE

  • FOREIGN INVESTMENT
  • Heineken has acquired Al Ahram Breweries at a cost of $ 286
  • million
  • The U.S. Guardian Industries together with the Kharafi Group of
  • Kuwait have acquired from the state the Plate Glass Co. for $ 70
  • million
  • The Swiss company Herro is in the process of acquiring Vitrac for
  • $ 51 million.

40. MARKET UPDATE-CONTINUED

  • BANKS
  • The CBE increased banks capital adequacy ratio from 8% to 10%
  • The Boards of all four public sector banks have been changed to
  • include independent Directors with international experience and
  • training

41. MARKET UPDATE-CONTINUED

  • STOCK MARKET
  • Margin trading has been introduced where investors are allowed to
  • borrow up to 50% of their investment. Brokerage firms with the
  • necessary paid-in-capital requirement are licensed by the CMA to
  • offer margin trading
  • The 5% trading limit has been lifted on the 12 most actively traded
  • stocks

42. MARKET UPDATE-CONTINUED

  • TOURISM
  • 574,000 arrivals in August 2002 the highest figure ever and a
  • 15% increase YOY

43.

  • Egypt presents one of the strongest investment cases available in emerging marketswith:
  • The bear market of the past five years is broken and the market
  • has been stable since the start of 2002
  • L ow price earnings ratios
  • H igh dividend yields
  • Goodearnings growth rates

CONCLUSION