investment presentation q2 - 2011

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Investment Presentation Q2 - 2011 Taking a fresh look on Kurdistan Kurdistan Investment Company Kurdistan Investment Company Idrottsgatan 4 Nishtiman Market Phone: +46 46 122617 2229 Lund Erbil Web: www.kurdistaninvestmentcompany.com Sweden Kurdistan/Iraq E-mail: [email protected]

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Taking a fresh look on Kurdistan. Investment Presentation Q2 - 2011. Kurdistan Investment CompanyKurdistan Investment Company Idrottsgatan 4 Nishtiman MarketPhone : +46 46 122617 2229 LundErbil Web: www.kurdistaninvestmentcompany.com - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

Investment Presentation Q2 - 2011

Taking a fresh look on Kurdistan

Kurdistan Investment Company Kurdistan Investment CompanyIdrottsgatan 4 Nishtiman Market Phone: +46 46 1226172229 Lund Erbil Web: www.kurdistaninvestmentcompany.comSweden Kurdistan/Iraq E-mail: [email protected]

Page 2: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

2/30

* Investing into Iraqi-

dependant securities

* Size: 22 MUSD

* Offshore Fund (BVI)

* Bank: VP bank (A+)

* Admin: ATU/VP bank

Godvig CapitalManagement

Godvig Capital Corp

Godvig Analytics Sarl

Godvig Foundation Iraq

Presentation of Godvig

* Investing into Kurdistan-

dependant securities

* Size: 1.5 MUSD

As of April 2011

Page 3: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

3/30

• Kurdistan Investment Company Structure

Presentation / Road map

• Investment Case

Page 4: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

4/30

• Kurdistan Investment Company Structure

1: Accessible 2: Liquid 3: Experience

4: Well-known Service Providers 5: Performance

6: Transparent 8: Unique

Executive Summary

• Investment Case

1: Lowered risk 2: High growth 3: Reform & Progress

4: Cheap valuations 5: Earnings growth 6: Flow & Access

7: Oil reserves 8: Uncorrelated

Page 5: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

6/30

Macro Economy

IMF Stat 2010

Iraqi Kurdistan Region

• Growth: above Iraqi average: Oil production & exports, sustained security, non-oil sectors improve

• Structural Reforms Progress: The Investment law

Iraq

• High GDP growth: 11,5 % 2011

• Debt levels vanishing

• Inflation tamed

• Hugh FX Reserves

Page 6: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

9/30

The Oil Story

• Oil reserves estimated to 45

billion barrels, sixth largest in the world

• Low production costs (about $2/barrel)

• Oil fields left mainly unexplored

• Exports started June 2009

Page 7: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

Production Sharing Contract (PSC) Blocks in Kurdistan

Page 8: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

12/30

Political Agenda and risks

• Kirkuk

• Federalism

• Reconstruction

• National elections

• US troop pull-out and the

future of the Peshmerga

• National Oil Law and

revenue-sharing law

Page 9: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

• Trading – 5 days / week 10.00 -

12.00

• Listings – 35 with ongoing trading

• Market Cap – 2.8 billion USD

• Turnover – 1 - 2 MUSD per trading hour

• Electronic Trading - Since spring 2009

• System – Nasdaq/OMX – Horizon

Trade

• Foreigners – Full ownership rights14/30

ISX - Snapshot

• Erbil Stock Exchange (ESX) expected in 2011

Page 10: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

• First Bank in Kurdistan Region – one of the largest banks in Iraq

• Established in 2005

• Branch network: 4

• New building in Erbil – Some areas to serve as Erbil Stock Exchange

• Total employees is 325

Investment Snapshot

20/30

Kurdistan International Bank

Page 11: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

Investment Snapshot

• Profits 2009 : +15% YOY

• Market Cap: 200 bn IQD (166 m USD)

• P/E: 6.3

• P/B: 1.3

• Loan/Deposits 0.1 % 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-202468

10121416

-0.125

0.6

6.5

13.315.5

Profit Over the Years

Amou

nt (B

illio

n IR

Q)

Page 12: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

• Objectives: Explore, develop and produce oil and gas, primarily in North Africa and the Middle East.

• Focused on under-developed oil and gas fields that can be exploited economically and profitably.

• Major oil discovery in August 2009 at Shaikan-1. The block is estimated to contain 4,2 bn barrels.

• P/E neg Market Cap: £1,100 million

Investment Snapshot

20/30

  WorkingInterestFullydilutedworkinginterest Operator

Estimated oil in place

Area under licence

ShaikanGKPI 75% (MOL 20%; TKI

5%) 51% GKPI 4,2 billion barrels 283km2Sheikh Adi GKPI 80%; (KRG 20%) 80%  GKPI > 1 billion barrels 180km2

Ber BahrGKPI 40% (Genel 40%; KRG

20%)  40% Genel 1.9 billion barrels 350km2Akri Bijeel GKPI 20% (MOL 80%) 12.8% MOL 2.2 billion barrels 889km2

Page 13: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

Assets Sectors

Investment Structure

23/30

100%

Oil & Gas

86%

14%

Equities Cash/Bills

Page 14: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

Economic Growth Oil Export Revenues ISX – Accessibility for foreigners Trust in bank sector rising New Laws- Oil, Investments, Reconc. National elections & Kirkuk issue Diplomatic / Geopolitical progress Budget execution rising Dinar appreciation Diversification needs for foreigners

Market Triggers in 2010

Portfolio Performance

22/30

Apr

/10

May

/10

Jun/

10

Jul/1

0

Aug

/10

Sep

/10

Oct

/10

Nov

/10

Dec

/10

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

6.7%

2.9%

8.2%

-4.5%

6.7%

-1.9%

-1.1%

-3.4%

0.0%

Page 15: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

1. Screening• Universe: Kurdish-dependency• Market Cap weighted• Eliminate non-compliant stocks50 30 securities

2. Research• Market Liquidity analysis• Fundamental analysis• Techs, Sentiment, Flow and Momentum

analysis to the extent possible 30 20 securities

3. Construction

• Portfolio optimization:• Diversification• Sector balancing• Correlation analysis20 7/15 securities

4. Monitoring• Ongoing analysis• Re-adjustment policies• Risk management process

Investment Process

24/30

Page 16: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

Investment Manager

Björn Englund

Mr. Englund, 41 years, is the founder of, and a fund manager for, Godvig Capital Management. In total, Björn has spent 15+ years in front-office positions, mainly in large Scandinavian banks. Former positions have varied from manager of pre-emerging market pools to trading strategist on institutional Scandi-desks. In the Mid-East region, he was stationed with the UN in Iraq and Kuwait in 1991, and in Lebanon in 1989.

Dara Maghdid ISX Market Analyst Lund & Erbil, Kurdistan/Iraq

Mohammed Mohammed ISX Prop Trader / Analyst Baghdad, Iraq

Harald Karlsson Oil Analyst Lund, Sweden

Rod Monger, PhD, USA Iraqi Financials, Accounting Sulimaniya, Kurdistan/Iraq

Al-Fawz Brokers Investment Analysis Baghdad, Iraq

Rabee Securities Investment Analysis Baghdad, Iraq

Rasul& TRC Legal Analysis Erbil, Kurdistan/Iraq

Iraqi Advisors

Advisory Team

Management of Godvig Capital

25/30

Page 17: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

KIC

BanksSwedbank, CBIQ

Lawyers (Kurdistan)Sulaiman Rasull Auditors

Ernest & Young

Investment AdviserGodvig Analytics

Organisation

26/30

Page 18: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

• Management fee – 2% / Year

• Performance fee – 20%

• Other – High-water mark

• NAV Calculation – Monthly

• Jurisdiction - KIC – Sweden

• Jurisdiction – Godvig – Luxembourg

Fact&Fees

27/30

Plain Vanilla

Page 19: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

• Strong Investment Case

• Easy Exposure – To the “Kurdistan Investment Story”

• Liquidity – To be listed in Sweden• Secure Structure – Well-known Service Providers

• Unique Product – Only investment company with a

Kurdistan focus

Recap– Kurdistan Investment Company offers…

29/30

1: Macro, 2: Oil story 3: Reform Agenda4: Reconstruction & Aid Flows 5: Performance 6: Market Size 7: Trend 8: Commitment

Page 20: Investment  Presentation Q2 - 2011

Contact

Björn Englund – CEOMobile: + 467 352 95 333E-mail: [email protected]

Dara Maghdid – CFOMobile: + 46 73 90 727 90E-mail: [email protected]

Kurdistan Investment Company

Office:Idrottsgatan 4222 29 LundTel: 046 - 12 26 17

www.kurdic.se www.kurdistaninvestmentcompany.comwww.godvigcapital.cominfo@godvigcapital.com

Harald Karlsson – AnalystMobile: + 467 365 22 824E-mail: [email protected]

Ludvig Sandell – MarketingMobile: + 467 079 40 086E-mail: [email protected]