investment update - outlook for 2009 swip multi-manager march 2009

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For professional use only - Not to be relied upon by retail clients Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009

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Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009. Outlook – Battling the Equity Bear. Corporate profits weak Economic outlook poor Limited liquidity Valuations cheap Markets looking for a base 1932 again?. 2009 like 1932?. Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones Industrial Index. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009

For professional use only - Not to be relied upon by retail clients

Investment Update - Outlook for 2009SWIP Multi-Manager

March 2009

Page 2: Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009

2

Outlook – Battling the Equity Bear

Corporate profits weak

Economic outlook poor

Limited liquidity

Valuations cheap

Markets looking for a base

1932 again?

Page 3: Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009

3

2009 like 1932?

Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones Industrial Index.

Page 4: Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009

4

Simon Wood Mark Harries

Lyndon Gill

Andrew Perham

Natalie Burnard

Highly rated team

.Source: Citywire relating to the City Wire rating for the SWIP Multimanager Fund Managers as at 31 December 2009.

Page 5: Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009

5

Outstanding performance

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

1yr

3yr

5yr

Sector SWIP Multi Manager Diversity Fund

Consistently outperforming

4 of 34 managers

7 of 52 managers

31 of 83 managers

Source: Citywire 31 January 2004 to 31 January 2009.

Page 6: Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009

6

SWIP Multi-Manager Diversity Fund

Multi-Asset strategy

Strategic asset allocation method

Tactical overlay

Multi-Manager approach

Wealth preservation and real returns focus

Targeting real returns

Page 7: Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009

7

Multi-asset strategy

Source: Datastream and Morningstar (total return in Sterling) as at 06 January 2009. You cannot predict the future

Rank/% Annual return

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1 Commodities61.6%

Property7.1%

Commodities 19.4%

Emg Mkts40.5%

HY Bonds21.2%

Emg Mkts50.5%

Europe ex UK20.1%

Emg Mkts37.4%

Gilts

12.8%

2 Property10.5%

Corp Bonds6.6%

Property10.5%

HY Bonds39.5%

Property18.9%

Japan41.0%

Property18.1%

Pacific ex Japan

34.2%

Cash

5.7%

3 Corp Bonds10.2%

Cash5.1%

Corp Bonds9.8%

Pacific ex Japan32.7%

Emg Mkts17.4%

Commodities40.4%

UK

16.8%Commodities

30.4%Japan

1.2%

4 Gilts8.8%

Gilts3.1%

Gilt 9.3%

Europe ex UK29.7%

Pacific ex Japan

14.9%Pacific ex Japan

34.3%Emg Mkts

16.3%Europe ex UK

15.7%Corp Bonds

-3.6%

5 Cash6.0%

Hedge2.8%

Cash3.9%

Japan23.9%

Europe ex UK13.8%

World ex UK24.9%

Pacific ex Japan16.1%

Hedge10.3%

US

-13.2%

6 Hedge4.1%

Pacific ex Japan1.6%

Hedge1.0%

UK

20.9%UK

12.8%Europe ex UK

24.1%HY Bonds

11.8%World ex UK

9.7%World ex UK

-17.1%

7 Europe ex UK1.7%

Emg Mkts

0.2%HY Bonds

-11.%World ex UK

20.7%Commodities

9.4%UK

22.0%Hedge10.3%

Cash6.2%

Hedge

-23.0%

8 HY Bonds-1.9%

HY Bonds-1.6%

Pacific ex Japan-14.6%

US15.3%

Japan8.6%

Property18.8%

World ex UK5.7%

UK5.3%

Europe ex UK

-24.0%

9 US -2.2%

US-9.8%

Emg Mkts-15.0%

Hedge11.6%

World ex UK7.8%

US16.9%

Cash4.8%

Gilts5.3%

HY Bonds

-25.0%

10 World ex UK-4.1%

UK-13.3%

Japan-18.8%

Property11.2%

Corp Bonds6.9%

Corp Bonds8.7%

US1.2%

US3.4%

Commodities

-25.9%

11 UK-5.9%

World ex UK-14.0%

UK-22.7%

Commodities8.6%

Hedge6.8%

HY Bonds5.3%

Corp Bonds0.8%

Corp Bonds1.9%

Property-27.1%

12 Emg Mkts -25.1%

Europe ex UK20.1%

Europe ex UK-27.0%

Corp Bonds5.9%

Gilts6.6%

Gilts7.9%

Gilts0.7%

HY Bonds-0.9%

UK

-29.9%

13 Pacific ex Japan-25.3%

Commodities-30.1%

World ex UK-27.4%

Cash3.6%

Cash 4.5%

Hedge7.4%

Japan-10.5%

Property-5.5%

Pacific ex Japan

-33.5%

14 Japan-29.6%

Japan-31.6%

US-29.9%

Gilts2.1%

US3.1%

Cash4.7%

Commodities-25.5%

Japan

-6.8%Emg Mkts

-35.2%

Page 8: Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009

8

- UK- International- Infrastructure

Equities 34% Fixed Interest 33% Alternatives 33%

- Global Bonds- Corporate Bonds- Government Bonds- Index-Linked Bonds- Strategic Bonds- High Yield Bonds- Absolute Return Bonds

- Hedge- Commercial Property- Commodities

Source: SWIP as at 31 December 2008.

Strategic asset allocation

Tried and trusted investment process

Page 9: Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009

9

Diversity current position

Equity 28.50%UK Equity 16.82%Blackrock AM Absolute AlphaGAM UK DiversifiedInvesco Perpetual IncomePolar Capital UK AbsoluteInternational Equity 9.45%Odey Opus Gartmore European Absolute ReturnInfrastructure 2.23%First State Global InfrastructureAlternatives 24.03%Hedge 21.03%Alternative Investment StrategiesBH Global LtdBH Macro LtdDexion AbsoluteDexion TradingFRM Diversified Alpha Goldman Sachs Dynamic OpportunitiesProperty 0.25%New Star International PropertyCommodities 2.75%Schroder Alternative Solutions Commodities

Fixed Income 25.11%Gilts 4.37%%Legal & General All Stocks Index TrustAbsolute Return Bond 6.40%Julius Baer Absolute Return BondIndex-Linked 1.34%Legal & General Index-Linked Gilt Index TrustStrategic Bond 9.02%M&G Optimal Income Global Bonds 3.64%PIMCO Global BondEmerging Market Debt 0.34%Thames River High Income

Cash & others 22.36%

Source: SWIP as at 30 January 2009.

Page 10: Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009

10

Multi-Manager approach

Source: SWIP as at 31 December 2008.

21 Funds

300 Analysts

19 Fund Management Houses

M&GM&G

Harris AlternativesHarris Alternatives

POLAR CAPITAL PERMAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENTSERVICES LIMITED

Julius Baer

Page 11: Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009

11

-18.95

-28.6

-10.5

-1.47

1.50.3

12.211.6

1.98

-2.7 -1.1 -1.3

27.5

9.8

17.721.6

17.07

-12.3 -13.4-13.0

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

21/10/05 -06/04/06

13/06/06 -01/06/07

21/01/08 -26/02/08

17/03/08 -19/05/08

21/11/08-31/12/08

15/06/07 -16/08/07

31/12/07 -21/01/08

27/02/08 -17/03/08

19/05/08 -16/07/08

19/09/08 -27/10/08

Wealth preservation

Sources: Citywire, DataStream as at 31 December 2008, (please note that prior to December 2007 the fund referred to is the Cazenove MM Diversity Fund).

SWIP Multi manager Diversity Fund FTSE All Share Index

Page 12: Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009

12

Real returns focus

Source: Citywire and Morningstar, The figures show the fund performance achieved by the management team/manager between: 31/01/2006 to 31/01/2009 whilst managing the Cazenove MM Diversity Fund until December 2007 and the SWIP Multi Manager Diversity fund thereafter.

13.30%

-0.10%

-10.10%

-21.20%-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

FTSE All Stocks Index Average Manager FTSE All Share SWIP multi managercapabilities

Page 13: Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009

13

Equities

Equity yields> Bond yieldsValuations Cheap

Bonds

US Corporate Bond Spreads widest since 1932

Interest rates lower for longer?

Index-linked Bonds: no inflation?

Hedge

Hedge Funds at 31% discounts to NAVDFM & Continuation Votes

Cash

Secure but low yield

Commercial Property

Returns to Fall FurtherRising DefaultsTenant demand subduedFalling Rents

Commodities

Secular Bull Case- Future inflation, weak $,

rise of Asia, supply side

Opportunities in 2009

Page 14: Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009

14

Diversity Fund

Highly rated team

Outstanding fund managers

Tried and tested investment process

Wealth preservation and real returns focus

Summary

Potential investors

Investors wary of stock market volatility

Ideal for clients particularly interested in capital preservation

Clients that want steady returns over an investment cycle

Diversity is a ‘core holding’

Page 15: Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009

15

Third party links

Freedom of choice

Plus most major platforms and offshore providers

Page 16: Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009

16

This is for professional financial advisers only and should not be distributed to or relied on by retail clients.

Until November 2007, the Cazenove Fund was managed by the individuals now forming SWIP's Multi Manager team. Performance figures shown for that fund demonstrate the capabilities of the new SWIP Multi Manager team, although there is no guarantee similar performance will be replicated at SWIP.The value of your investment is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up depending on investment performance. You may not get back the amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Funds may have holdings which are denominated in different currencies and may be affected by movements in exchange rates. Consequently, the value of your investment may rise or fall in line with exchange rates. Tax rules relating to  OEICs may change.

Multi-manager funds can invest in a wide range of asset classes, including collective investment schemes, which they themselves invest in a range of other assets. These underlying assets are likely to vary from time to time but each category of asset (which may include, but shall not be limited to, hedge funds or property) has individual risks associated with them. Multi-manager funds and the Manager may not have control over the activities of any collective investment scheme or company invested in by Multi-manager funds. Managers of collective investment schemes and companies in which the Multi manager funds may invest may take undesirable tax positions, employ excessive leverage, or otherwise manage the collective investment schemes in a manner not anticipated by the Manager.

Further details of the risks relating to the SWIP Multi-Manager Funds can be found in the Key Features Document which must be read before taking any investment decision. This is available at our website www.swip.com.SWIP Multi-Manager Funds Limited, Company No. 5582499. Registered Office in the United Kingdom at 10 Fleet Place, London, EC4M 7RH. Tel 020 7203 3000. SWIP Multi-Manager Funds Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is entered on their register under number 455821 (www.fsa.gov.uk/register).

Scottish Widows Investment Partnership Limited, Company No. 794936. Registered Office in the United Kingdom at 10 Fleet Place, London, EC4M 7RH. Tel: 0131655 8500. Scottish Widows Investment Partnership Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is entered on their register under number 193707 (www.fsa.gov.uk/register).

Regulatory information and risk warnings