investor education: bull & bear markets€¦ · investor education q4 | 2014 12/31/14. three...
TRANSCRIPT
YEARS
EEEEEEEE E E ER RRRRRRRRRR
% C
hang
e in
S&
P 5
00
Ind
ex
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
Federal funds rate
-50%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
500%
550%
600%
-100%
Federal funds rate
The interest rate at which private banks lend money for overnight loans. The Fed generally raises the target federal funds rate to slow economic growth, and lowers the rate to facilitate growth.
-15%5
months
-24%4
months
-17%20
months
-14%14
months
-43%21
months
-29%19
months
-16%8
months
-22%6
months
-8%15
months
-14%17
months
33months
87%
19months
60%
14months
39%
43months
90%
118months
526%
29months
59%
61months
281%
27months
86%
30months
76%
26months
52%
91months
407%
26months
94%
56months
100%
-43%30
months
-51%16
months
-7%7
months
Percent change of the S&P 500 Index for each bull and bear market since 1949
37months
76%
’49 ’50 ’51 ’52 ’53 ’54 ’55 ’56 ’57 ’58 ’59 ’60 ’61 ’62 ’63 ’64 ’65 ’66 ’67 ’68 ’69 ’70 ’71 ’72 ’73 ’74 ’75 ’76 ’77 ’78 ’79 ’80 ’81 ’82 ’83 ’84 ’85 ’86 ’87 ’88 ’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14
Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research, Ibbotson Associates, The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Putnam Investments, 2014. Data is as of 12/31/14, is historical, and reflects reinvested dividends. Past performance and market conditions do not guarantee future results and may not be duplicated. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of common stock performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Federal funds rate data was not available before July 1954. A bull market is here defined as a period when the stock market rises for at least four straight months. A bear market is defined as a market decline of at least four months.
Stay invested. For long-term investors, staying invested makes more sense than moving in and out of the market at the first sign of bad news. Over the past 66 years, bull markets have lasted longer (43 months on average) than bear markets (14 months on average) and have more than made up for
the periodic market declines. Bull markets have begun during economic recessions R and expansions E and at all levels of rates . And while it is impossible to predict when a bull market will begin, it is possible to miss one by waiting on the sidelines.
Investor EducationQ4 | 2014
12/31/14
Three reasons to stay the course.
1. The market has always recovered Over the past 66 years, there have been 13 bear
markets, lasting an average of 14 months and
declining a total of 24.6% before recovering.
By contrast, the 14 bull markets since 1949 have
lasted roughly 43 months on balance, each
growing an average of 117.9%.
2. Frequent sellers have lagged the market Industry researcher DALBAR has studied the
effects of frequent buying and selling by mutual
fund investors. The study found that over the
20-year period ended December 31, 2010, stock
fund investors who held shares for an average of
just over 3 years before selling earned substantially
less than the return of the S&P 500 Index (3.8%
versus 9.1%).*
3. Market gains have more than made up for losses Although selling may feel better in times of market
turbulence, the fact is that market gains have more
than made up for losses for those investors who
stay invested over time. A $10,000 investment in
the S&P 500 Index in 1994 would have grown to
$65,475 by December 31, 2014, despite the 51%
downturn of 2008–2009. Please keep in mind
that returns for other periods may have been less
favorable and that other market segments may not
have recovered from this downturn.
* Source: DALBAR, Inc. Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2011, for the period ended 12/31/10. Most recent data available.
Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of a fund before investing. For a prospectus, or a summary prospectus if available, containing this and other information for any Putnam fund or product, call your financial representative or call Putnam at 1-800-225-1581. Please read the prospectus
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BULL MARKETS versus BEAR MARKETS (12/31/48–12/31/14)
Bull Bear
Occurrences 14 13
% of time in economic recessions 48% 52%
% of time in economic expansions 82% 18%
Average length (months) 43 14
Average annual return 23.9% -21.5%
Average cumulative return 117.9% -24.6%
Source: Putnam research. Data illustrated using S&P 500 Index.