investor presentation july 2003 awb limited. 2003 half year results corporate strategy key issues...
TRANSCRIPT
Investor presentation
July 2003
AWB Limited
• 2003 Half year results
• Corporate strategy
• Key issues
• Global supply & demand
• Outlook
• Presentation supplement
- Financials
- Background / introduction to AWB
Overview
2003 Half-year results impacted by drought
• Net profit after tax of $29.9m, down 61%
• Total operating revenue of $1.03b, down 34%
• Earnings per share of 10.9 cents, down 61%
• Interim dividend of 14 cents per share
• Drought impacted wheat crop of 9.7 million tonnes
• Loan book peaked at $1.6b in December 2002
• Gross Pool Value at $1.3b
Business operations
$million
For the 6 months ended
31-Mar-03
For the 6 months ended
31-Mar-02Change
Pool Management Services 8.3 1.8 361%
Grain Acquisition & Trading 15.0 52.5 (71%)
Grain Technology (2.5) (0.9) 178%
Supply Chain & Other Investments 2.8 22.5 (88%)
Interest expense (18.6) (10.4) 79%
Finance & Risk Management 35.5 50.7 (30%)
Corporate 2.3 (7.0) 133%
Operating profit before tax 42.8 109.2 (61%)
Net profit after tax 29.9 77.1 (61%)
The global grain asset manager model defines long term growth as being both vertical and horizontal
Australian other grains
Australian other commodities
Australian wheat
International wheat
International other grains & commodities
Solid domestic
base enables domestic
value chain integration
and international
growth
Grower Relation-
ships
Customer Relation-
ships
Va
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din
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rod
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ts a
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rvic
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Rural Services Inputs
Seed & Grain Tech.
Shipping
Finance & Risk Mgmt.
Grain Acq. & Trading
Supply Chain
Milling & Processing
Pool Mgmt.
Key issues
• Iraq
• Strategic investment in Futuris
• Single Desk
AWB will continue supplying Iraq
• Wheat supply is continuing via the UN Oil-For-Food program under direction from the World Food Program
• The UN Oil-For-Food program has been extended to November 2003
• The UN and the US administration will continue to honour contracts previously awarded
• Australian wheat is widely used and recognised throughout the Middle East region as a clean quality white wheat
• Australia has been supplying Iraq with this wheat for more than 54 years. AWB expects to retain a strong market share in Iraq in the future
Strategic investment in Futuris
• AWB currently owns 14.2% in Futuris – we are the largest single shareholder
• The primary objective is to maximise the value of our investment and to pursue opportunities with Elders (namely, their distribution network)
• In order to increase stake above 15%, we have lodged an application to the Treasurer
• This is all about keeping our options open
Single Desk
• The 2004 WEA Review is limited to a review on AWBI’s performance as manager of the Single Desk. This will be overseen by an independent panel.
• It will not incorporate National Competition Policy (NCP) principles or the broader industry issues
• The Single Desk system legislation will be reviewed in 2010 under the NCP principles
Global export market share 2003-04 • Australian, Canadian and US wheat crops expected to rebound significantly
• 2003-04 total exports by major exporting countries forecast to increase to 81.5mt, an increase of 18.2mt from 2002-03
• Major wheat exporting countries continue to face competition from non-traditional exporters in 2003-04
All figures are forecasts. Source: USDA June 2003
USA26%
Australia17%
Canada15%
EU14%
Other18%
Argentina10%
Non-traditional exporters• Non-traditional exporters have increased their export program over the last two
years due to good production, large carryover stocks and increased investment in transport and infrastructure
• However, some of these exporters will produce significantly lower tonnage in 2003-04, reducing total exports by non-traditional exporters to only 11.7mt compared with 34.3mt in 2002-03
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
(mt)
Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan EasternEurope
India Pakistan
2001-02
2002-03(e)
2003-04(f)
(f) = forecast. (e) = estimate Source: USDA June 2003
Global supply and demand
• 2003-04 world wheat production is
forecast to fall for the 2nd
consecutive year by around 1%
due to limited production in non-
traditional exporters, particularly
Russia, Eastern Europe and the
Ukraine.
• Carryover stocks are at relatively
low levels, representing
approximately three months
supply.
• Production in major exporting
countries are forecast to increase
540
550
560
570
580
590
600
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03(e) 2003-04(f)
(mt)
0
50
100
150
200
250(mt)
World Production
World Consumption
World stocks (ending)
(e) = estimate (f) = forecast. Source: USDA June 2003
Outlook• AWB is forecasting full-year NPAT result in the range of $40-$45m
• AWB has forecast 2003-04 wheat production between 20-22mt
• Stable dividend payment for 2002-03 despite reduction in earnings. The Board intends to maintain a stable dividend policy
• Strategic investment in Futuris Limited
• Capital management and ring fencing
• Expand Finance and Risk Management products
• Further growth and diversification – aim to be less than 80% reliant on the wheat crop by end of 2004
• Financials
• Background / introductory information on AWB
Presentation Supplement
Statement of financial performance
$million
For the 6 months ended
31-Mar-03
For the 6 months ended
31-Mar-02 Change
Revenue from ordinary activities 1,030.3 1,559.7 (34%)
Cost of sales (883.0) (1,354.1) (35%)
Borrowing costs (42.7) (42.3) 1%
Depreciation & amortisation (12.2) (5.6) 118%
Other (52.4) (50.4) 4%
Share of net profit of associates 2.8 1.9 47%
Operating profit before tax 42.8 109.2 (61%)
Net profit 29.9 77.1 (61%)
Cash flow$million
For the 6 months ended
31-Mar-03
Operating profit before tax 42.8
Tax paid (39.2)
Depreciation & amortisation 12.2
Working capital changes 19.3
Increase in net cash & short term deposits (195.1)
Purchase of non-current assets (49.1)
Purchase of investments (121.7)
Dividends paid (30.2)
Net new equity 1.9
Decrease in loan book 250.1
Increase in debt (109.0)
Capital expenditure
$million
For the 6 months ended
31-Mar-03
For the 6 months ended
31-Mar-02 Change
Grain centres construction 40.7 8.6 373%
System Development &
Other Plant & Equipment
8.4 18.3 (54%)
Total 49.1 26.9 83%
Depreciation 12.2 5.6 118%
Statement of financial position$million As at 31-Mar-03 As at 31-Mar-02
Assets
Cash 61.9 11.7
Receivables 1,721.3 2,987.1
Investments 381.8 109.9
Inventories 310.8 169.3
Property, plant & equipment 206.9 126.2
Other 52.8 18.4
2,735.5 3,422.6
Liabilities
Payables 121.1 188.6
Interest bearing liabilities 1,746.6 2,355.8
Provisions 8.8 47.3
Other 43.1 41.5
1,919.6 2,633.2
Net Assets 815.9 789.4
AWB … an introduction Australia's major grain marketer & one of the world's largest wheat managers and marketers – over 60 years experience in marketing Australian wheat.
AWB markets wheat and other grains to more than 40 countries and is the world’s second largest wheat exporter with 16% global market share (based on 2001-02). The AWB National Pool is a significant contributor to the Australian economy, accounting for around 3% of the total value of Australia’s exports. AWB employs more than 570 people, with a network of 43 offices in Australia and around the world.
AWB is chosen by most Australian wheat and grain growers to market and finance their grain.
AWB operates and manages the AWB National Pool on behalf of AWB (International) Ltd via the Single Desk system.
Market Cap: $1,058.0 million ($3.86 15/7/03)
Shares on issue:
274.1 million
Shareholder’s equity:
$815.9 million(as at 31 Mar 2003)
ASX listing: 22 August 2001
Index inclusion:
S&P / ASX 100
Average daily volume:
344,000 shares
Credit ratings: A+ S&P long termA1 S&P short termP1 Moody’s short term
Evolution
2001 Listed on the ASX
1999 Privatised. (shareholders equity = $607m)
1998 Corporatised
1989 Domestic market deregulated and
Wheat Industry Fund established
1939 Australian Wheat Board established as a statutory authority
— Wheat Industry Fund converted to B class shares
— A class shares issued to wheat growers
— Government guarantee of AWB borrowings removed
2003 Shareholders equity = $815.9m (as at 31-Mar-2003). Of the $215.5m in dividends paid since Dec-2000, $196.3m has been paid to grower shareholders
AWB has a dual class ownership structure
A Class Shares (35,000) B Class Shares (274.1m)
• Can only be owned by current wheat growers
• One share per wheat grower with weighted voting dependant on tonnes delivered (currently 35,000 A class shareholders)
• Non-transferable
• Not entitled to receive any dividends
• Ability to control AWB through electing 7 of 12 Directors (a majority of the board)
• Shares listed on the ASX
• Can be owned by any investor, subject to 10% ownership limit (currently 60,448 B Class shareholders)
• Entitled to receive dividends
• Entitled to elect up to 4 of 12 Directors over time
• 15% of issued capital owned by Institutions
Corporate structure
AWB - Pool management services
- Grain acquisition and trading
- Supply chain and other investments
- Finance and risk management products
- Grain technology
Growers
Business services
Pool payments
Wheat deliveries
AWBI Export markets
Wheat
marketing
Monitors
performance
of AWBI
Wheat Export Authority
Risk allocation
National Pool Financing Principal trading / other
• Final net pool return
– final sale price
– foreign exchange
– Supply chain logistics
• Credit risk management
outcomes
• Chartering and Quality
Assurance costs
Grower risk AWB risk
• Underwriting risk if Pool return falls below guaranteed return (currently at 81.8)%
• Size of pool impacts revenue derived from products and services
• Margin on loans
• Underwriting fees
• Fees from basis pool contracts
• Principal positions in wheat and other grains
• Multi-varietal and fixed grade contracts
• Credit risk management
• Trade execution management
• Grain centres management
• Riskassist advisory services
• Incentive in pool management fee
For more information contact:
Delphine Cassidy
Head of Investor Relations
Ph: +61 3 9209 2404
Email: [email protected]
www.awb.com.au