investor presentation - microsoft... · feb-21 investor presentation operations 22 lpg 3% gasoline...

Hizmete Özel / Confidential

Investor Presentation

February 2021


This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by variables and changes in

underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.

www.tupras.com.trFeb-21Investor Presentation 2

Disclaimer

Disclaimer


Refining Market


54.7

81.2

18.5

54.8

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-17

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-18

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

No

v-19

Jan

-20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-

20

Sep

-20

No

v-20

Jan

-21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-

21

Sep

-21

No

v-21

Brent Crude Prices

www.tupras.com.trFeb-21Investor Presentation 4Refining Market

$/bbl

+ OPEC ++ production cut+ Impact of Iran & Venezuela sanctions+ Escalating regional tension

- Concerns on global economic development- Covid-19 related demand drop- Storage capacity fill up

2017 ave.54.3 $/bbl

2018 ave.71.0 $/bbl

2019 ave.64.3 $/bbl

All waivers expired on

Iran

Iran Sanctions

DroneAttack to

Saudi Fields

data as of 31 January 2021

Covid-19 & OPEC+

disagreement

OPEC++ Production Cut Decision

2020 ave.41.7 $/bbl


Global Refinery Capacity Changes


Expectations until 2024:

• ~80% of net capacity additions will come from Asia & Middle East

• Net capacity and demand in Europe will remain roughly unchanged

2.10

0.98

1.68

0.49

1.30

-0.95

0.22

-1.41

-2 -1 0 1 2 3

China

India

Middle East

Other Asia

Other

Japan

N. America

Europe

2012-2018 Net Capacity Additions by Region

2.0

0.9

1.71.3

0.9

0.2

1.97

0.89

1.93 1.96

1.50

0.51

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2019-2024 Net Capacity Additions

Asia & Middle East Other Total


Middle Distillate Cracks


11.2

10.1

12.5

9.7

5.0 4.8

6.4

4.7

2.4

4.34.8

5.4

4.9

0

5

10

15

20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Diesel

5yr range 5 yr ave 2020 2021

10.4

7.9

5.8

-1.7

-3.9

-1.6-0.6

-2.3-3.3

0.5

2.23.1

3.0

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Jet Fuel

5yr range 5 yr ave 2020 2021

5 yr between 2016-2020, data as of 31 January 2021

$/bbl


Gasoline and High Sulphur Fuel Oil Cracks


$/bbl

6.2

7.7

9.8

3.32.4

3.1

4.3 4.65.1

7.7

6.4

4.13.4

0

5

10

15

20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Gasoline

5yr range 2021 2020 5 yr ave

-6.4

-22.4

-15.8

-8.4

-4.8

-7.8 -8.1-7.1 -7.5

-5.5-3.8 -4.4

-7.4

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

High Sulphur Fuel Oil




LPG and Naphtha Cracks


$/bbl

-11.4

-21.7

-15.9

1.6

-5.4

-11.2

-18.0

-15.2

-17.9

-11.4

-7.5 -8.1

-13.7

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

LPG


-0.3

-7.9

-6.4

-7.6

-9.3

-6.4

-3.6

-2.0

-3.5

-1.8

0.8

-2.4-2.8

-15

-10

-5

0

5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Naphtha




Crude Price Differentials to Brent

Feb-21Investor Presentation 9Refining Market

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2017 2018 2019 2020

Arab Heavy

Basrah Heavy

Kirkuk

Ural

Average*

0

OPEC+ Cut Decision

Iran Sanctions

*Simple average of listed differentials

OPEC+ agreement on supply cuts in May and extension of initial cut target to the end of July led to sizeablenarrowing in differentials in Q3.

OPEC+disagreement

OPEC+ Cut Decision

www.tupras.com.tr


Turkish Market


Turkish Consumption 2016-2019

www.tupras.com.trFeb-21Investor Presentation 11Turkish Market

Source: Tüpraş and EMRA ¹Bunker excluded

22.324.2 23.6 22.5

0

14

28

2016 2017 2018 2019

Diesel

-4.4%+8.3%

MillionTons

-2.4%

4.4 4.55.0 5.3

0

4

8

2016 2017 2018 2019

Jet Fuel

+10.5%+2.6%

2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4

0

2

4

2016 2017 2018 2019

Gasoline

+3.0%+1.2%+3.1%

0.60.5

0.4 0.3

0

1

2

2016 2017 2018 2019

Fuel Oil¹

-3.2%-27%-16%

+6.5%


Turkish Market, 11M 2020


Covid-19 impact on demand started to ease as of June. While Diesel seems to be in lead, Jet is lagging far behind.

¹Transit flight consumption included²Bunker excluded

2.23 2.20

1.0

1.5

2.0

2019 2020

Gasoline

0.350.27

0.0

0.5

1.0

2019 2020

²Fuel Oil

22.78 23.12

0

5

10

15

20

25

2019 2020

Diesel

+1.5%

4.94

2.24

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

2019 2020

¹Jet Fuel

-23.4%-1.1%

-54.7%


Turkey’s Net Import / Export Balance


-3.4

2.8

-12.3

0.1

-3.0

3.0

-8.7

0.3

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

LPG Gasoline Diesel Jet

2016 2017 2018 2019

Export

Import

MillionTons


Company Overview


Tüpraş Shareholder Structure

www.tupras.com.trFeb-21Investor Presentation 15Company Overview

¹As of December 31th,2019

Tüpraş is Turkey’s biggest industrial company and leading refiner.

Domestic Ownership

22%

Foreign Ownership1

78%

Free Float49%

Ditaş79.98%

Opet40%

Körfez Ulaştırma100%

Tüpraş Trading Ltd100%

Koç Holding77%

Aygaz20%

Opet3%

Energy Investments Inc. (SPV)51%


Tüpraş’s Refining Assets & Distribution Network


İzmit

• 11.3 MT Capacity• NC: 14.5• Storage Capacity: 3.0 mn m3

İzmir

• 11.9 MT Capacity• NC: 7.66• Storage Capacity:2.5 mn m3

Kırıkkale

• 5.4 MT Capacity• NC: 6.32• Storage Capacity: 1.3 mn m3

Batman

• 1.4 MT Capacity• NC: 1.83• Storage Capacity:0.3 mn m3

Turkey‘s Storage Capacity

Tüpraş & Opet

57%

Others 43%

Railway

Iraq-Turkey Oil Pipeline

Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline

+ Tüpraş supplies ~55%

of Turkey’s petroleum

product needs

+ Tüpraş benefits from

an integrated system

optimization with its

high complexity,

procurement and

logistics flexibility

Total Capacity

30 mntons

Nelson Complexity

9.5

Tüpraş Storage Cap.

7 mnm3


Nelson Complexity of Refining Companies



Tüpraş Subsidiaries


OPET, Distribution, Tüpraş Share: 40%

• 1,749 stations as of 30 Sep 2020• As of Aug 2020 Market share: 20.1% in white products; 22.3% in black

products

DİTAŞ, Marine Transport, Tüpraş Share: 79.98%

• 3 Crude Oil Tanker: 479,765 DWT• 1 Crude Oil - Product Tanker: 51,532 DWT• 10 Product Tanker: 171,453 DWT“

Körfez Ulaştırma, Railway Transport, Tüpraş Share: 100%

• ~7% share in Turkish rail freight market• ~1.8 mn ton of product and semi-product carried in 2019.• Operates with 10 diesel locomotives and over 600 cistern wagons

Tüpraş Trading UK, Trading, Tüpraş Share: 100%

• Trading Office in London will be an important step into wider integration with the global energy landscape by allowing to:

Closely monitor international market opportunities Support import and export operations Create additional value from supply chain and sales activities


Operations


6 610

2 2 3

12

3 3 1 0 0

12 13 1310 10 10

2 0

17 1511

14 14

7

14

34

65 6763

7176

7981

55

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Africa America Europe CIS Middle East

Main Crude Suppliers in 2019

Crude Suppliers of Tüpraş


In 2019, Tüpraş purchased 15 different types of crude from 8 countries with gravities ranging between 20-47 API.

Operations

Crude Oil Imports by Region (%)


9M Product Yields

www.tupras.com.trFeb-21Investor Presentation 21Operations

LPG3%

Gasoline20%

Naphtha1%

Jet13%

Gasoil45%

Fuel Oil2%

Kok3%

Bitumen12%

Other1%

LPG Gasoline Naphtha Jet Gasoil

Fuel Oil Kok Bitumen Other

Light Distil.24%

Mid. Distil.58%

Black Prod.17%

Other White

1%

2020 9M

White Product Yield (%) 81.7%

Production 17.3 mn tons

API 31.4

LPG4%

Gasoline20%

Naphtha1%

Jet17%

Gasoil35%

Fuel Oil11%

Kok2%

Bitumen8%

Other2%


Fuel Oil Kok Bitumen Other

Light Distil.25%

Mid. Distil.52%

Black Prod.21%

Other white

2%

2019 9M



API 32.1


Annual Product Yields

www.tupras.com.trFeb-21Investor Presentation 22Operations

LPG3%

Gasoline20%

Naphtha1%

Jet19%

Gasoil33%

Fuel Oil7%

Kok3%

Asphalt12%

Other2%


Fuel Oil Kok Asphalt Other

Light Distil.25%

Mid. Distil.52%

Black Prod.21%

Other white

2%

2018



API 31.0

LPG4%

Gasoline20%

Naphtha1%

Jet17%

Gasoil36%

Fuel Oil9%

Kok3%

Asphalt8%

Other2%


Fuel Oil Kok Asphalt Other

Light Distil.25%

Mid. Distil.53%

Black Prod.20%

Other White

2%

2019



API 32.0


Capacity Utilization1 (%)Quarterly Production (Mn tons)

Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume

www.tupras.com.trFeb-21Investor Presentation

23

¹Capacity utilization calculation is based on 30 mn tons for Q1 2019 and onwards.

• Tüpraş produced 6.4 million tons in Q3 2020.

• Capacity utilization for Q3 2020 was 89% - supported by post-lockdown recovery as well as seasonality.

Operations

6.76.9

7.5

6.9

6.0

4.9

6.4

4

5

6

7

8

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

10

1

10

1

87 91 9

6

87

79

64

80

4 7

9 79

9

6

5

9

105 108

96 98

105

96

85

69

88.5

2016 2017 2018 2019 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20

Crude Oil Semi Product Feedstock Total


Sales


24

• Tüpraş generated 29.2 million tons of total sales 2019.

Operations

Distributors46%

THY Opet5%

Jet9%

LPG3%

Other6%

Export23%

Bitumen6%

Military2%

22.2 24.8 25.7 25.622.4

6.55.5 5.8 4.2

6.8

28.7 30.3 31.5 29.8 29.2

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Exports

Domestic Sales

9.2 10.8 11.3 11.9 10.4

4.84.5 4.5 4.9

4.32.0

2.2 2.2 2.22.3

2.93.4 3.5 2.9

1.8

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Bitumen

Gasoline

Jet Fuel

Diesel

Total Sales

Domestic Sales of Key Products

Customer Groups 2019mn tons

mn tons

Sales to Distributors

2019

13.3 mn tons

Total Sales, 2019

29.2 mn tons

POAŞ27%

OPET31%

SHELL19%

BP13%

OTHER10%


Key FinancialsFinancials


Refining Margin


2.53.2

6.5 6.0

8.1

9.3

3.7

1.51.71.9

4.84.0

5.34.6

1.7

-0.2

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-9M

Tüpraş Net Margin MediterraneanPremium to the benchmark Mediterranean

peers’ refining margin due to:

• Ability to use heavier and sour crudes with higher

complexity

• Access to a wide range of cheaper sources of crude

oil

• Close proximity to major suppliers reduces

transport costs

• Lower cost basis and more efficient energy usage

• Ability to produce a broad range of refined products

with higher value added

• Direct pipeline connections with domestic clients

5.5

2.0 2.91.2

4.2

1.7 2.0

4.8 4.05.4 4.6

1.7-0.2

Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20

Med Complex

Month Annual

Financials

$/bbl

$/bbl


Tüpraş and Med Refining Margins

www.tupras.com.trFeb-21Investor Presentation 27Financials

($/bbl)Gross

MarginInventory

EffectClean Gross

MarginClean NET

MarginNet

MarginMed Margin

2020 Q3 6.7 2.9 3.8 -0.8 2.1 -1.9

2020 9M 6.7 -0.2 7.0 1.7 1.5 -0.2

2019 Q3 9.1 -1.4 10.6 5.4 4.0 3.3

2019 9M 9.0 -0.1 9.1 3.8 3.7 2.9

8.19.3

3.7 3.7

1.5

5.34.6

1.72.9

-0.2-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2017 12M 2018 12M 2019 12M 2019 9M 2020 9M

Average Margins

Tüpraş Net Margin Med Margin


Income Statement


28

*On CMB reports. EBIT includes extra items such as FX impacts of trade receivables and payables. In our EBITDA calculation. FX related items are excluded from EBIT as customary in international practices.

Financials

EBITDA realized as 977 mn TL in Q3 2020.

Million TLQ3 Q3

%9M 9M

%2020 2019 2020 2019

Net Sales 17,035 23,309 -27% 43,254 67,970 -36%

COGS -15,845 -22,152 28% -42,083 -64,150 34%

Gross Profit 1,190 1,157 3% 1,171 3,820 -69%

Operating Expenses -500 -451 -11% -1,477 -1,244 -19%

Income/Loss from other operations -492 -98 -400% -933 -407 -129%

Operating Profit 199 608 -67% -1,239 2,169 -157%

Income/Loss from equity investment 78 63 25% -147 172 -186%

Operating Profit Before Fin. Income/Loss 277 671 -59% -1,386 2,341 -159%

Financial Income/Expense -833 -817 -2% -2,297 -2,214 -4%

Profit Before Tax -556 -146 -280% -3,683 127 -2995%

Net Profit (excluding minority interest) -420 -155 -170% -2,870 340 -945%

EBITDA* 977 956 2% 163 3,301 -95%

Inventory Gain/Loss 1,439 -692 -308% -585 283 -306%

EBITDA* CCS -463 1,648 -128% 747 3,018 -75%


Financial Highlights


1) Excluding minority interest 2) Calculation based on rolling EBITDA3) Calculation based on rolling net income

1.11.2

1.3 1.0

1.11.8

1.11.3 2.1

19.7

2.1 1.2 1.9 2.2

11.3

2016 2017 2018 2019 Q3 2020

Current Ratio & Net Debt / R. EBITDA2

Current Ratio

Net Debt / R. EBITDA

Net Debt / R. EBITDA CCS

3351,575

1,033 851

-1,291

688

1,542 2,2101,495

477

867

1,528

3,778

956

977

1,505

1,237

1,887

7383,396

5,882

8,908

4,039

163

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

EBITDA (mn TL) Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

79

869378

-375

-2,265

331

1,457

1,027

870

-185

581

992

542

-155

-420

803

493

1,766

186

1,793

3,812 3,713

526

-2,870

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net Income¹ (mn TL) Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

22%

41% 37%

5%

-24%

2016 2017 2018 2019 Q3 2020

Return on Average Equity3


Balance Sheet Analysis


-0.2

2.1

4.7

-3.6

-2.0-3.0

2.6

Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20

Working Capital Requirement (Billion TL)

6.1 6.2

12.0

8.4

12.211.0

17.8

1.7 1.72.3

1.41.9

1.6

2.3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

5

10

15

20

Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20

Net Debt

In Billion TL In Billion $

Proactive Financial Management

• Utilized ample liquidity in the market to increase the share of TL in our borrowing and extended maturities.

• Lower rates achieved in new loans, re-negotiated some of the existing loans with better rates.

7.2

12.1

2.21.4

5.6

0.2

1 year 1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4-5 years Over 5 years

Redemption Schedule (Billion TL)

TL Hard Currencybn TL bn $


Q3 Profit Before Tax Bridge (2019-2020)


Inventory gain was off set by weaker crack margins and narrower differentials as well as higher fx loss leading to decline in PBT compared to Q3 2019.

Million TL


Annual Profit Before Tax Bridge (2018-2019)


2019 PBT was lower mainly due to narrow differentials, weaker crack margins and natural gas price hikes.

Million TL

Financials


Dividend (TL)


3.2 2.9

5.05.8

4.85.8

10.2

7.2

15.2 14.8

2.12.5 3.03.9 3.9

1.6

6.5 6.2

13.615.2

0.0

77%

101%

79%

66%

33%

0%

64%

87%89%

102%

0%

0%

40%

80%

120%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

EPS DPS Dividend Payout

Financials


Investments (Million $)


274355

400

186 177

628

974

1213

959

344

213 185138 157 69

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20209M

Ongoing Projects

• Revamp of Crude Units

• FCC Modernization

• New Sulphur Units

• Energy Saving Projects

• Optimization of conversion

units

• c6.7 bn USD investments since privatization

• Reached 9.5 Nelson Complexity

• Capability to process heavier and more sour crude

Avg. 278 Mn$

Avg. 943 Mn$

Avg. 207 Mn$

Financials


9M 2020 Results


1.5

-0.2

-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

9M

20

20

Refining Margins ($/bbl)

Med Margin

Tüpraş Net Margin

80.9 % total capacity utilization in 9M 2020

17.3 18.222 23

Production Sales

Operationals9M FY Target

18.2 mn tons of sales and 17.3 mn tons of production in 9M 2020

69115

9M 2020 Target

Refining Capex (mn $)

69 mn $ refining CAPEX in 9M 2020

80.9

0 20 40 60 80 100

9M2020

Capacity Utilization (%)

1.5 $/bbl net refining margin in 9M 2020

Med FY Exp

Tüpraş FY Target


Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL)


30.09.2020 31.12.2019 Diff. Diff. (%)Current Assets 25,054 27,919 -2,865 -10

Cash & C. Equivalents 10,891 10,652 239 2

Trade Receivables 4,676 4,788 -112 -2

Derivatives 1,064 304 760 250

Inventories 7,234 9,469 -2,235 -24

Pre-paid expenses 224 237 -13 -6

Other Current Assets 965 2,470 -1,504 -61

Long Term Assets 28,560 27,593 968 4

Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 1,129 1,363 -234 -17

Fixed Assets 20,785 20,587 198 1

Derivatives 123 99 25 25

Pre-paid expenses 124 199 -75 -38

Deferred Tax 4,753 3,768 986 26

Other Long Term Assets 1,646 1,578 69 4

Total Assets 53,614 55,512 -1,897 -3

Short Term Liabilities 21,890 28,120 -6,230 -22

Financial Loans 7,220 5,178 2,042 39

Trade Payables 9,351 17,816 -8,465 -48


Provisions 292 117 175 150

Other ST Liabilities 4,879 4,930 -51 -1

Long Term Liabilities 21,854 14,255 7,599 53

Financial Loans 21,440 13,898 7,542 54

Payables & Provisions 346 316 29 9


Other LT Liabilities 11 9 3 30

Total equity attributable to equity holders of the parent 9,663 12,963 -3,300 -25

Minority Interests 207 174 34 19

Total Liabilities & Equity 53,614 55,512 -1,897 -3


Foreign Currency Long Term

Tüpraş B+ (Negative) B2 (Negative)

Turkey BB- (Negative) B2 (Negative) B+ (Stable)

Koç Holding B2 (Negative) BB- (Stable)

Leading Corporate Governance Score


93.3

99.5

97.2

95.5

95.8

0 25 50 75 100

Board

Stakeholders

Transparency

Shareholders

Overall

Tüpraş BIST Corporate Governance Rating Score

Source: Bloomberg

50%

31%

19%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst Recommendations

Credit Rating Scores

Source: SAHA Corporate Governance and Rating Services Inc. (October 2020)

Financials


Proactive in liquidity risk management & targets/limits for financial ratios:

• Net financial debt/EBITDA

• Net financial debt/Equity

Financial Policy

www.tupras.com.trFeb-21Inestor Presentation 38

Financial Discipline: Risk management policies focusing on areas such as leverage, liquidity, counterparty risk, commodity, interest rate and currency exposure.

Leverage & Liquidity

• Current ratio

• Share of long term debt

Deposit is kept within bank-based limits:

• Credit rating assessment and strong capital base.

• Cap on the maximum deposit allocated to a single bank.

• Threshold for deposits subject to banks shareholders’ equity.

Counterparty Risk Policy

• The fixed/floating profile of financial debt.

• Proactive management of FX risk with derivative instruments

• Zero FX exposure target.

Interest Rate & Fx

Inventory Hedging Policy:• Operational hedge: Optimum stock policy & forward pricing mechanism.• Financial hedge: Expected inventory exposure for the year end is hedged by using derivatives.• Hedging ratio increasing throughout the year.

Crack Margin Hedging Policy:• Financial hedge: Crack margin (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil) risk mitigation by using derivatives.• Hedge ratio between %0-%50 with up to 1 year hedge tenor

CommodityHedging

Policy

Financials


FX Exposure Management (30 September 2020)


• A significant portion of the Group's crude oil and refined

product purchases are denominated in US Dollars. In

addition, the Group finances its capital expenditures

mostly through borrowings denominated in US Dollars.

• Natural Hedge: The Group is able to mitigate some of

the impact of volatility in exchange rates through

natural hedges: crude oil and refined product

inventories are US Dollar denominated assets.

• Cash flow Hedge: RUP Facility financing loans

designated as hedging instruments of highly probable

export revenues.

• As a general Koç Holding financial policy, Group

companies are allowed to keep foreign exchange

positions within certain limits.

Tüpraş continues to employ strict FX policies to mitigate currency risks stemming from volatility.

Financials

Cash

1,082

Forward 584CFH* 647

Stock932

Receivables & Other Assets

63

Payables & OtherLiabilities

1,074

ST Financial Loans458

• RUP: 170• Other: 288

LT Financial Loans1,755

• RUP: 449• Eurobond: 700• Other Loans: 607

Consolidated Hard Currency Assets

Consolidated Hard Currency Liabilities

Million $

+21 mn $

*Cash Flow Hedge


Appendix


2020 Refinery Maintenance Schedule

www.tupras.com.trFeb-21Investor Presentation 41Appendix

* This activity had started in Q4-19. Duration figure indicates the portion carried out in 2020

Refinery Unit Quarter Duration (weeks) Status

Batman Plt 100/1100 Crude Oil & VacuumQ1 10-12 Completed

2019 Q4-2021 Q1 8 Planned

İzmir

U-100 Crude Q1 9* Completed

U-9200 CCR Q1 3 Completed

U-4000 FCC Q4 6 Planned

U-9200 CCR Q4 7 Postponed to 2021

U-9600 Isomerization Q4 8 Postponed to 2021

U-9900 MQD Q4 7 Postponed to 2021

İzmit

Plt-6 Desulphurizer Q4 4 Postponed to 2021

Plt- 5 Crude &Vakum Q4 2 Planned

Plt-47 Hydrocracker Q4 2 Planned

Plt-147 Hydrocracker Q4 4-5 Completed

Kırıkkale


2020 Expectations(*)


• Weak outlook for mid-distillate cracks

• Ural-Brent differential slightly wider compared to 2019

Med Complex Refining Margin ~-0.5 $/bbl

• Weak performing mid-distillate cracks

• Strong HSFO and relatively resilient gasoline cracks

• ~22 mt production, ~23mt sales and 75 - 80% capacity utilization

Tüpraş Net Refining Margin ~1.0 $/bbl

• Process improvement projects

Refining Capex ~115 million $

*Due to the ongoing negative impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on petroleum products demand globally and significant deterioration in crack margins due to the elevated global product inventories, our 2020 expectations were revised.


Competition - STAR Refinery

www.tupras.com.tr 43Feb-21Investor Presentation

• Feasibility studies began in 2010 and construction kicked off in 2011

• Goldman Sachs has acquired a 13% stake in SOCAR Turkey for $1.3 billion.

• Total investment size 6.3 bn USD, with 3.3 bn USD credit agreement.

• Following the completion of construction late 2018, reached full capacity utilization in August 2019

Turkish Market Structure (mn tons)Timeline

Turkey Demand

Tüpraş STAR TotalTurkishMarket

DemandBalance

LPG 1.1 0.3 1.4 4.1 -2.7

Petchem F. 0.2 2.6 2.8

Gasoline 6.1 6.1 2.4 3.7

Jet Fuel 5.2 1.6 6.8 5.2 1.6

Diesel 10.7 4.5 15.2 26.5 -11.3

Fuel Oil 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.5

Bitumen 3.1 3.1 3.1

Pet coke 0.8 0.7 1.5 4.6 -3.1

Total ~30 ~10 ~40

Appendix


Competition - Regional Competition

www.tupras.com.tr 44Feb-21Investor Presentation

• Tüpraş competes with 71 refineries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea markets.• Mediterranean regional product balance is also affected from Middle East, North West Europe and Asia flows

17 Refineries ~1.8mbd

Mediterranean Black Sea

54 Refineries ~7.8mbd

Appendix


IMO 2020: Changes in Bunker Specification and Its Effects


Current compliant fuels

Cu

rren

t O

utl

oo

kB

eyo

nd

20

20

Demand shift beyond 2020

HSFO replacement expectations

Long term outlook for marine fuels

• Marine Gasoil (Diesel): Easiest solution as it is already available

• Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO): Either through FCC with sweet crudes or by blending

• Scrubbers: As of 17/07/20, ~3.9K vessels are either fitted or scheduled to be fitted and ~0.5K vessels are on order book to be delivered with scrubbers

• LNG: requires significant investments at ports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Compliant HSFO Non-compliant HSFO VLSFO MGO LNG

• VLSFO is the initial choice, followed by MGO• Fuel choice might change through the years as

availability & compatibility issues get resolved• Compliant HSFO use grows as scrubber numbers rise

from ~2K after Jan 1st, 2020 (some ports started bans on open-loop scrubbers thus this projection might change)

Source: Market Reports

Appendix


Tüpraş Production Flow and Yield Breakdown


• Tüpraş has 30 million tons of production capacity

• Tüpraş operates 4 refineries with an integrated system optimization program

Appendix

Key Units# of

UnitsCapacity(m3/d)

CRUDE OIL 8 99,420

VACUUM DIST. 8 42,752

HYDROCRACKER 4 18,032

ISOMERATION 3 7,804

UNIFINER REFORMER

5 16,225

KERO/DIESEL (HDS)

9 37,265

FCC 2 4,650

COKER 1 9000

NAPHTASPLITTER

8

LPG MEROX 6

Flow Diagram

LPG MEROX

NAPHTHASPLITTER

ISOMER.

VACUUMDIST.

UNIFINERREFORMER

KERO/DIESEL (HDS)

FCC

HYDROCRACKER

COKER

Bitumen

Lube Oil

FCCGasolineHDS

BenzenSaturation

Multiple distillation

and production

units

Other, 3.8%

Bitumen & Fuel Oil, 19.9%

Lube Oil, 0.5%

Diesel,

33.9%

Jet Fueloil, 16.5%

GasolineNaphtha,

22.0%

LPG, 3.5%


RUP Feedstock and Production


• Residuum Upgrade Plant (RUP) was completed in 2015 and it is the main conversion unit of Tüpraş.

• First periodic maintenance was completed in Q2 2019.

Total Output ~4.25mn tonsTotal Processing ~4.50 mn tons

Appendix


European Pump Price Comparison


2.833.93

2.373.02

3.562.79

3.722.73

0.70

0.00

0.870.54

0.000.96

0.000.95

3.45

4.55 5.696.14 5.86

6.15 6.64 6.60

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

TR Spa. Ger UK Eu19 Fra. Gre. Ita.

Gasoline (TL/Lt)

Refinery Price Dist. Margin Tax

3.174.10

2.893.94

4.52

3.02 3.05 3.18

0.760.00

0.910.00

0.00

0.92 0.80 0.73

2.58

3.85 4.374.78

4.49 5.55 5.756.21

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

TR Spa. Ger. EU19 Gre. Fra. Ita. UK

Diesel (TL/Lt)

Refinery Price Dist. Margin Tax

European prices as of 16th December - Turkeys prices as of 24th December 2019

Turkish fuel prices are highly competitive with other European countries.

Appendix


Tüpraş’s Sustainability Efforts Over a Decade of Dedication


Tüpraş kicked off its sustainability

program back in 2008 and

achieved many milestones in a

decade

~500energy efficiency

projects leading to

~35,000 TJ saving and

2.4 mt CO2 reduction

11.5%increase in solid waste recovery

20.7 points drop in Energy

Intensity

45.5% decrease in fresh

water usage

~209 MTL donations and sponsorships

76.5% increase in female

employee numbers

~1.2 mnworkhours dedicated to

OHS training

+1.3 points increase in Corporate

Governance rating

17% female representation in senior and mid-level

management

See our Sustainability Report for details

From our investment decisions to our

working methodology, we placed

sustainability at the forefront of our

operations, as a core management

aspect. Accordingly, we adopted the UN

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

as a significant guidance mechanism

seeking creative solutions to global

challenges.


2019 Achievements

www.tupras.com.tr 50

• Tüpraş won the first and jury special awards in Energy Efficiency category of Industry Project Competition.

• Kırıkkale Refinery New Power Plant project was selected as the “Project of the Year” at the ICCI International Energy and Environment Fair and Conference.

• Achieved 69.6% water recycle ratio

• Achieved 69.5% solid waste recovery

Environmental Responsibility

• ~12,000 students have received robotic coding training within Our Energy to the Future; I Code, Model, Produce CSR Project .

• 80% of ex-crude procurement activities were conducted through local businesses.

Social Support

• 9.50 Corporate Governance Rating

• 18% Female Representation at the Board,

• 17% Female Representation in Upper and Mid-Level Management.

Governance Excellence

AppendixFeb-21Investor Presentation


Koç Holding

www.tupras.com.tr 51

• Koç Holding is Turkey’s largest industrial and services group in terms of revenues, exports, employees, taxes paid and market capitalization

• The only Turkish company in Fortuna 5001.• 26% CAGR in consolidated profit2 the last five years

Turkey’s Leading Investment Holding Company

• Leading positions with clear competitive advantages in sectors with long-term growth potential such as energy, automotive, consumer durables and finance.

Pioneer in its Sectors

8%

Combined Revenues /

GDP

9%

Total Exports / Turkey’s Exports

15%

Total Market Cap in Borsa

Istanbul

Notes : Data as of YE19(1) 2019 Report (based on consolidated revenues)(2) In TL terms between 2015-19

AppendixFeb-21Investor Presentation


Investor Presentation

Latest Webcast

Sustainability Report

contact us: [email protected]

investor presentation - microsoft... · feb-21 investor presentation operations 22 lpg 3% gasoline...

Documents