investor presentation october 2017[2] - pets at home group plc · [xxx]...
TRANSCRIPT
nemo2014\Presentations\Analyst Presentation Jan14\201401 Nemo Analyst Presentation Master-22nd Jan FINAL.pptx [xxx] [xxx] [xxx]
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Investor Presentation October 2017
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Forward looking statements
Forward-Looking Statements INCLUDED IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE FORWARD-LOOKING MANAGEMENT COMMENTS AND OTHER STATEMENTS THAT REFLECT MANAGEMENT’S CURRENT OUTLOOK FOR FUTURE PERIODS These expectations are based on currently available competitive, financial, and economic data along with our current operating plans and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results contemplated by the forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements in this presentation should be read in conjunction with the risks and uncertainties discussed in the Pets At Home Annual Report and Accounts.
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Market
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13.36cm 0.39cm 0.43cm 13.36cm
6.03cm
5.12cm
0.76cm
1.64cm
7.20cm
8.43cm Source: OC&C Strategy Consultants, refers to calendar years
£1.7bn £1.7bn
£0.42bn £0.47bn £0.28bn £0.33bn £0.46bn £0.48bn £0.34bn £0.36bn
£0.89bn £1.1bn
£0.20bn £0.23bn
£1.7bn
£1.9bn
£0.27bn
£0.32bn
Pet market growth has accelerated, driven by faster pace in veterinary, insurance and accessories
£6.8bn
5%
7%
10%
2.5%
9% 5%
0%
1.5%
2014-16 CAGR
First Opinion veterinary
Grooming
Insurance
Health & Hygiene
Advanced Nutrition Treats
Other food
Other accessories
2014 2016
Specialist veterinary referrals 10%
11% Online participation
4%
7%
7.5%
1%
14% 8%
1%
1%
2012-14 CAGR
11%
Total Market 4.5% 4%
4
9%
Source: OC&C 2017. Data refers to calendar years.
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Our total pet product market share has grown from 19% to 20% through 2014-2016
Vet Group Retail
5
53%
21%
5% 13%
36%
36% 73% 64%
6%
14% 13%
17%
19%
15%
19%
7%
8%
13%
16%
12%
8% 9% 3%
21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Advanced Nutrition Bridging Grocery Treats Accessories
Mar
ket S
hare
Pets at Home Grocers Discounters Vets Pet Specialists Online (Specialists and Non-Specialists) Other
Pets at Home Share Change 2014-2016
+2%
Pet product market share by player, 2016
+3% 0% +1% +2%
Source: OC&C 2017. Data refers to calendar years.
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Stores are an important part of future market growth. Bricks and mortar sales along with C&C expected to grow at 2.7% per annum
Vet Group Retail
6
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2016A 2021E
Expe
cted
UK
Pet P
rodu
ct M
arke
t Va
lue
(£bn
.)
Bricks and Mortar Online Click and Collect Online Deliver to Home
Source: OC&C 2017. Data refers to calendar years.
c15% c11% Online participation
0f pet market
Pet Products Market CAGR
2016-21
Total 3.0%
Online Deliver to Home 5.3%
Online Click and Collect 30.0%
Bricks and Mortar 2.1%
2.7%
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The vet market continues to consolidate and we are one of three major players with leading market share
Vet Group Retail
7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2014 2016
Mar
ket S
hare
PAH JV CVS Medivet IVC Other
Source: OC&C 2017 and Pets at Home estimates
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Actual Estimated Mature
Mar
ket S
hare
PAH JV CVS Medivet IVC Other
Note: Data refers to calendar years, by estimated revenue per practice.
If all our existing practices were mature, estimated PAH share would be 18%
PAH Vet Group has a 12% market share with a young practice estate
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Strategic overview
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Our Integrated Store: a unique combination of product, services and expertise under one roof
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More than just a pet shop … over 28% of customer revenues are spent on Services, with >£260m from our Vet Group
Vet Group Retail
10
28%
72%
Vet and Grooming Services Retail Products
Pet products and services share of customer spend
Vet services include revenues generated by first opinion practices and specialist referral centres .
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Having an integrated product and services offering drives overall customer spend and frequency
Vet Group
11
Store Only Store and Web Store & Web &Groomer
Store & Vet & Web Store & Vet & Web &Groomer
Spen
d pe
r ann
um (£
)
Customer type
Store Vet Online Groom
£490 £339 £76 £- £-
£396 £245 £295 £195 £125
VIP loyalty card data: average yearly spend of product and services customers
34 22 19 11 6 Customer
Transactions per annum
Services spend
Store spend
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Why we are better together
Vet Group Retail
12
A mature store with integrated services delivers an EBITDA uplift of 24% per square foot compared to a
mature store without services
Annual EBITDA £0.3m Annual EBITDA £0.5m
Note: Includes central cost allocation.
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We have invested to integrate services into over 54% of our stores. Few are mature, with significant profit maturity to come.
Retail
13
FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E
200
15
Note: An integrated store unit is defined as a store which incorporates a first opinion veterinary practice and a groom room
Number of mature integrated store units
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Our strategy is designed to maximise our competitive position and market opportunity
Price, innovation, services & advice
Vet practice maturity
Optimised Store & Services Rollout
Key Growth Drivers
Driv
ers
of C
ore
Gro
wth
Like For Like
Space
Margin
VIP club members
Omnichannel
Vet Group
Private label mix
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Veterinary business
15
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Our core business is first opinion small animal veterinary practices, with recent extension into specialist referral care
16
Vet Group Retail
438 practices at end FY17 289 in-store 149 standalone
Covers all aspects of general small animal veterinary work: preventative care, emergency care, sick pet work Health plans 24/7 out of hours care Extended hours Own brand nutraceuticals
Internal medicine Oncology Orthopaedic surgery Soft tissue surgery Neurology and neurosurgery Diagnostic imaging
First opinion practices Referral centres
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We have a shared ownership model which runs our businesses, creating loyalty & incentivising future growth
17
First Opinion Joint Venture Partners
Specialist Referral Shared Venture Partners
Typical number of partners / practice One Multiple
Equity / capital value entitlement Partner has 100% Key clinicians have 5-25%
Day to day management & influence
JVP. Pets at Home Vet Group provides business services
SVPs & management supported by Pets at Home Vet Group
Impact on Group financials
PAH receive 15-17% of practice revenue plus other management fees, for which we provide business services. In-store practices also pay rent to PAH
Practice revenue, costs & balance sheet are consolidated
Partner share of practice dividend 100% 5-25%
Typical timeframe partner chooses to sell 10 years + Minimum 4 years
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Our first opinion Joint Venture business model is unique in the UK veterinary market
18
JV Partner PAH Vet Group
Own ‘A shares’: Entitlement to profit &
capital gains
Personal loan: c£30k
Own ‘B shares’: Influence on key business decisions to protect Group Corporate loan: c£30k Working capital support
Full salary paid from day 1 (average market rate)
Right to all dividends after repayment of bank loan
Capital gains at exit
Receive fees of 15-17% of practice revenues plus other management fees
Provide all back office functions & specialist business support (these are our operating costs)
Provide working capital support when needed to support practice growth
JV Practice
Commercial Bank
Small business loan: c£320k
Each practice is a separate company, jointly owned by the Vet Group & JV Vet Partner
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Our JV model has allowed us to maintain a strong opening track record and drive market beating growth in mature practices
19 Source: OC&C; Internal data; Annual Reports of Other Corporate Players
Number of first opinion practices in-store (IS) and standalone (SA)
Like-for-like growth of PAH practices compared with the market
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Looking to the future, we have increased our rollout forecast from 700 to 1000 practices
20
Vet Group
Potential UK rollout has grown from 700 to 1000 practices following full review of UK practice potential
All towns/areas assessed based on:
Household numbers
Key demographics
Current vet saturation
Drive times to our existing footprint
Rollout view incorporates analysis from our existing extensive estate
Current UK small animal vet market has c5000 practices
289
149
116 45
401
Existing Retrofit New
550
450 In-store
Standalone
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We have four specialist referral centres and plans for further expansion and rollout to 10-15 across the UK
21 locations of PAH primary opinion practices in-store or standalone
Northwest Veterinary Specialists
Dick White Referrals
Anderson Moores
The Eye Vet
Expansion of existing locations also ongoing and planned:
At Anderson Moores: Facility for radio-iodine treatment of cats with hyperthyroidism added 2016
Expanded from 4 to 8 consult rooms 2017
Expansion from 2 to 3 theatres planned
At Dick White Referrals Future expansion of consultation space and surgical facilities
Extending laboratory facilities
At Northwest & Eye Vet New surgical facilities planned for 2017/18
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8.43cm
<1 Year 1-2 Years 3- 4 Years 5-6 Years 7-10Years
10+ Years
We currently have a young first opinion practice network, where fee income grows significantly as practices mature
22
Maturity of practice estate at FY17 year end
No
prac
tices
Fees to PAH as practices mature
Mature practices
Fees
to P
AH p
er p
ract
ice
<1 Year 1-2 Years 3-4 Years 5-6 Years 7-10Years
10+ Years
Mature practices
c100
c60
c50
c60
c100
c50
Note: Refers to Joint Venture practices only. Does not include any wholly owned Group Venture practices. Fees to PAH represent an annual percentage charge on customer revenue earned by the practice, and fixed management fees
£10k
£95k
£125k
£145k
£185k
£65k
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£0m
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FY17a FY20e FY23e
Fees from new openings & immature practices Fees from Mature Practices
As we roll out towards reaching 1000 practices, our fee income is expected to double
23
Tota
l fee
inco
me
to P
AH
c50% expected increase from current fees
Expected doubling of current fees
Note: Future rollout estimated at 40 practices per annum. Fee income forecasts are based upon the FY17 average fee income for practice cohorts as they age, shown on slide 20 and inflated at c1% per annum. Fees from mature practices includes those aged 7+ years
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<1 Year 1-2 Years 3- 4 Years 5-6 Years 7-10 Years 10+ Years
Fees to PAH Incremental PAH costs per new practice opening
The mainly fixed Support Office costs mean that margin leverage is delivered as our first opinion practices mature
24
Incremental costs are additional Support Office colleagues when the practice opens. Colleague costs will then grow at c5% per
annum
Tota
l fee
inco
me
and
cost
s to
PAH
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Overall Vet Group economics: there is an opportunity to significantly increase EBITDA both through maturation and rollout
25
FY17a Current Vet Group (438practices, 4 referral centres)
MATURE Current Vet Group(438 practices, 4 referral
centres)
MATURE Full UK rollout VetGroup (700 practices, 4 referral
centres)
MATURE Full UK rollout VetGroup (1000 practices, 4
referral centres)
FY17a Current Vet Group
438 practices, 4 referral centres
Mature Current Vet Group2
438 practices, 4 referral centres
Mature 700 rollout Vet Group,3
700 practices, 4 referral centres
Mature 1000 rollout Vet Group3
1000 practices, 4 referral centres
1. Mature fee income forecasts for first opinion practices are based upon those for FY17 cohorts aged 10+years – with c1% inflation per annum. EBITDA does not include any central cost allocation for the Executive Management team or Pets at Home Group Head Office support. Referral centre revenue and EBITDA is assumed to remain flat from FY17 actuals
2. EBITDA to PAH assumes no additional colleagues required at Vet Group Support Office to support the existing practice base. Colleague costs are inflated at c5% per annum 3. EBITDA to PAH assumes additional colleagues are required at Vet Group Support Office to support new practice openings. New and existing colleague costs are inflated at c5% per
annum
EBITDA1 to Pets at Home from the Vet Group
c2x Today
Today
>3x Today
c5x Today
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Retail business
26
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Our immediate strategic focus in retail is based around three key themes: value, competitive advantage and operational leverage
27
Value Competitive Advantage
Operational Leverage
Leveraging the value and quality of our private label
premium foods
Leveraging our points of difference
Driving cost efficiencies
Repositioning prices in branded economy and
Advanced Nutrition foods
Repositioning prices in everyday pet essentials
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120
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160
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200
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Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17
We have seen a good response in demand elasticity since repositioning selected dog Advanced Nutrition prices
28
Private label AN volume uplifts are exceeding the deflationary effect
Average price cut c20-30%
And whilst early days we are seeing the same in a branded AN line that we have repositioned
Note: Volumes compare the average uplift since price repositioning with a defined time period before repositioning
Average volume up
>40%
Inde
xed
volu
mes
of d
og A
N p
rivat
e la
bel s
ince
pric
es re
posi
tione
d
Average price cut
c30%
Average volume up
>70%
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17
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And have made feeding a better diet more accessible than ever by narrowing the pricing gaps
29
Branded grocery food
Private label bridging food
Private label natural Advanced
Nutrition
39p per feed 41p per feed 61p per feed
4% meat* 24% meat* 27% meat*
Price per feed based on medium size dog 10-20kg * Refers to fresh meat and meat meal
Private label science
Advanced Nutrition
68p per feed
37% meat*
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Order in-store is a differentiator that demonstrates the importance of stores and service from colleagues
• Colleagues have direct access to our full online range through their PetPads
• Customer order can be completed in under two minutes
• With the option to collect the product back in-store or be delivered to home
We estimate c70% of Order in-store revenues are incremental
Driven by sales of product lines from the extended online range
30
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Implied monthly spend on treatment
One treatment£4.50
One treatment £6.50
Online price leader*
Multipack x4 £10.29
(£2.57 per treatment)
Multipack x6 £33.99
(£5.67 per treatment)
Note: Pricing is based on the implied monthly spend for a customer with 100% compliance for flea treatments. Based on medium dog 10-25kg. • Excludes any delivery charge
Subscribe & Save gives superior convenience
The success of Subscribe & Save shows how we can leverage colleague advice and convenience
We have narrowed the pricing gap but we are not price leaders
• Pet owners need to treat for fleas every month
• Standard option is to buy a multipack and remember to treat
• Or Subscribe & Save, where a single treatment is delivered to your home as a timely reminder
• We already have c100,000 active plans since launch just over a year ago
31
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Omnichannel performance has been a core contributor to improved Merchandise trading momentum
Omnichannel sales now represent c6% of Merchandise revenues
Q1 FY16 Q1 FY17 Q1 FY18
Online order delivered to home Click & Collect Subscription Order in-store
+54%
+80%
45% 48% 60% % of omnichannel revenues involving a store or colleague
32
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Pet partner for product & services Lifetime loyalty Build trust & love
We have recently launched a Golden Paws initiative aimed at building a long term relationship with new puppy owners
33
Welcome
Average basket value for Golden Paws customers is >30% higher than other puppy customers
The free Advanced Nutrition consultation drives AN participation for Golden Paws customers to double that of other puppy customers
VIP data insights
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Financials
Unless otherwise stated, the comparative period FY16 commentary refers to the unaudited 52 week period to 24th March 2016, to better reflect the underlying performance of the business
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13.36cm 0.39cm 0.43cm 13.36cm
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55% 45%
Food Accessories
86%
14%
Pet Services (still immature)
Merchandise
Higher than Group
Lower than Group
Group EBITDA margin hierarchy
Merchandise £716.7m
Services £117.5m
Our statutory financials reflect the Joint Venture veterinary model where we earn a proportion of customer revenue
35 1. Includes revenue from specialist referral vet centres, grooming services revenue, live pet sales in our stores, and insurance income.
Services more profitable than Merchandise Pet services are 14% of revenue
40%
60%
Merchandise Services
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We have continued to show strong Services revenue growth reinforced by positive Merchandise momentum
£m Revenue FY17 Change Q1 FY18
Group Total 834.2 7.2% 256.5 5.0%
Like-for-like 1.5% 2.7%
Merchandise
Food 395.1 3.3% - -
Accessories 321.6 2.4% - -
Total 716.7 2.9% 216.4 2.8%
Like-for-like 0.8% 1.5%
Services
Total income from JV vet practices 47.1 24.6% 16.2 19.7%
Other1 70.4 61.7% 23.9 18.3%
Total 117.5 44.5% 40.1 18.8%
Like-for-like 7.9% 10.5%
1. Includes revenue from wholly owned Group Venture vet practices & other veterinary income, including specialist referrals, grooming salons, live pet sales & insurance commission
Unless otherwise stated, the comparative period FY16 commentary refers to the unaudited 52 week period to 24th March 2016, to better reflect the underlying performance of the business 36
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54.5% 54.2%
37bps 72bps
Merchandise
Services
Our gross margin progression in Merchandise is offset by the mix impact of fast growing Services
Merchandise
FY16 FY17
57.0% 57.6%
Services
FY16 FY17
33.0% 33.3%
Food including
Advanced Nutrition
Selected pricing actions
FX
Mix shift from
Omnichannel food sales
First opinion vets
Lower pet sales
Specialist referrals
New grooming salons
Group gross margin bridge
54.5% []%
FY16 FY17
Unless otherwise stated, the comparative period FY16 commentary refers to the unaudited 52 week period to 24th March 2016, to better reflect the underlying performance of the business 37
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We have delivered strong cost control whilst investing in profitable growth
14.8%
Group Pre-Exceptional Operating Cost Bridge Excluding D&A, £m
Unless otherwise stated, the comparative period FY16 commentary refers to the unaudited 52 week period to 24th March 2016, to better reflect the underlying performance of the business
£-1.2 £3.0
£3.3
£1.0
£7.0
£8.9
Support Office Distribution Core Stores Omni-channel Vet Group New Stores
£299.3m £321.3m FY16 FY17
Operational Efficiency Investing in Growth
£304.4m
1.7% growth
38
7.3% growth
m m
m
m
m
m
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And will continue to do so as we drive number of simplicity initiatives through the retail business to manage costs
39
Targeting c£5m of cost savings in FY18
Reduction in store hours Energy cost management Simpler distribution
Fewer promotional & ticket changes
Simpler & improved pet care routines
Move manual processes to digital
Customer facing time not impacted
LED lights
Smart energy management systems
Reduce SKU count & promo stocking cycles
Fewer small item goods-out deliveries
Reduce goods-in deliveries
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Our capital expenditure supports growth opportunities
Vet Group Retail
40
4.8 4.4 7.1 14.1 5.3 4.9
10.0
7.2 9.0 13.6
12.9
16.8
10.9 10.3
11.5
6.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Cap
ital S
pend
(£m
)
Other including distribution, energy saving and specialist referral vets Business systems and omnichannel Refurbishment and retrofit New stores
£30m
£33m
£42m
£45m £38-40m
Expected run rate
e e e e
£40-42m
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8.43cm
We are efficient in our management of trading working capital, whilst providing support to underpin vet practice growth
Unless otherwise stated, the comparative period FY16 commentary refers to the unaudited 52 week period to 24th March 2016, to better reflect the underlying performance of the business
£m FY16 movement
FY17 movement
Inventories (3.6) (5.0)
Trade payables, other payables and provisions 9.3 11.5
Trade and other receivables 5.8 (1.6)
Trading working capital 11.5 8.2
Operating loans to JV vet practices (6.5) (10.5)
Working capital 5.0 (2.3)
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And we will continue to have good cash generation
1 Includes provisions movement 2 53 week audited financial period
Unless otherwise stated, the comparative period FY16 commentary refers to the unaudited 52 week period to 24th March 2016, to better reflect the underlying performance of the business
£m FY16 FY17 Change
EBITDA 124.7 130.5 4.7%
Non-Cash Share Based Payment Charges 3.0 2.5 Cash EBITDA 127.7 133.0 4.2%
Working capital1 5.0 -2.3
Operating cashflow 132.7 130.7 -1.5%
Tax -14.8 -19.3 30.2%
Interest cost -5.3 -4.2 -21.1%
Capex -34.8 -42.6 22.5% Free cashflow 77.8 64.6 -17.0%
Conversion 62.4% 49.5%
Leverage (ND:EBITDA) 1.3x2 1.2x
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Acquisition and investment capital is being deployed to our Vet Group and is delivering good growth and returns
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Capital expenditure Acquisition capital Working capital
Overall Vet Group delivering LFL customer revenue growth above market and CROIC above the Group average
Specialist referral centre expansion Potential organic development of new referral centres Mezzanine floors in-store to house practices
Specialist referral centres Other vet market assets
Support to First Opinion Joint Venture practices
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Our priorities for use of cash remain focused on growth opportunities
Strong balance sheet Leverage policy up to 1.5x ND:EBITDA, extending up to c1.75x for appropriate acquisitions
Organic investment Ongoing programme currently focused on rollout & omnichannel strategies
Progressive dividend Ordinary dividend policy around 50% of earnings
Invest for growth Disciplined bolt-ons or investment in-line with strategy, aim to deliver returns ahead of our WACC1
Further shareholder returns Surplus FCF returned
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FY20 onwards Services maturity benefits evident
FY19 Transition to positive Group profit growth
Financial outlook: a three year transition to lay the foundations for future growth and realise Services maturity benefits
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FY18 Reposition the Merchandise
business
All financial guidance reconfirmed
Price investment on track
Operational cost savings delivery H2 weighted
Increased working capital support for vet practice growth vs FY17 – overall Group working capital guidance for FY18 remains c£5m outflow
Lower rollout of grooming salons expected at 20-30 practices
On track to deliver FY in line with market expectations
Through the majority of price repositioning
Annualisation of FY18 investment
Potential for further investment in selected areas
Targeting Merchandise LFL above market levels and taking share
Vet Group delivering ongoing high profit growth
Continued operational cost savings action
Continued above market growth in Merchandise
Group operating margin expansion evident and supported by Vet Group maturation
Group profit growth at high single digit levels
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Appendix
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Financial definitions
Like-for-like ‘Like-for-Like’ sales growth comprises total sales/fee revenue in a financial period compared to revenue achieved in a prior period, for stores, online operations, grooming salons, vet practices and referral centres that have been trading for 52 weeks. Free cashflow Free Cashflow is defined as net cash from operating activities, after tax, less net cash used in investing activities (excluding acquisitions), less interest paid & debt issue costs, and is stated before cash flows for exceptional costs CROIC Represents cash returns divided by the average of gross capital (GCI) invested for the last twelve months. Cash returns represent pre-exceptional operating profit before property rentals and share based payments subject to tax then adjusted for depreciation and amortisation. GCI represents Gross Property, Plant and Equipment plus Software and other intangibles excluding the goodwill created on the acquisition of the group by KKR (£906,445,000) plus net working capital plus capitalised rent being property rentals multiplied by a factor of 8x. A multiple of 8 is the industry standard methodology.
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Rollout of 10 superstores, 40-50 vet practices and 40-50 grooming salons
Group gross margin down 100-200 bps
Which includes price investment and year-on-year FX impact
Operational cost growth (excluding depreciation and amortisation) of 4.5-5.5%,
Which includes cost from the step up in National Living Wage and Apprenticeship Levy, new store openings and operational cost savings
Depreciation and amortisation £34–35m, weighted more to the H1
Net interest £4-5m
Effective tax rate 20%
Capital investment c£40-42m – includes the remainder of the one-off energy savings project at £3m
Working capital outflow of around £5m to support vet practice growth
Ordinary dividend payment maintained at least at the prior year level
FY18 guidance
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Accounting treatment of veterinary specialist referral centres
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Ownership of three referral centres
≥75% share owned by Pets at Home
Remaining shares owned by selected clinician Shared Venture Partners (SVPs)
PAH has option to buy SVP’s shares (from 3 yrs + after acquisition)
Accounting requirement is the option is treated as a forward contract
Specialist referral centre ownership is structured to incentivise growth Accounting treatment required
Balance sheet & cashflow
Full consolidation
Income statement
Discounted future value of SVP’s shares recognised as expense over period to exercise on a risk adjusted basis
Non-underlying charge may be up to £2m in FY18