investor roadshow presentation: david murray

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November 2002 Investor Roadshow David Murray Chief Executive Officer Stuart Grimshaw Chief Financial Officer www.commbank.com.au

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Page 1: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

November 2002 Investor Roadshow

David Murray

Chief Executive Officer

Stuart Grimshaw

Chief Financial Officer

www.commbank.com.au

Page 2: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

2

The material that follows is a presentation of general background information about the Bank’s activities current at the date of the presentation, 4 November 2002. It is information given in summary form and does not purport to be complete. It is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. These should be considered, with or without professional advice when deciding if an investment is appropriate.

A full colour version of this presentation is available on the News & Information page of the Commonwealth Bank’s Shareholder Centre website http://shareholders.commbank.com.au/display

Disclaimer

Page 3: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

3

Speaker’s Notes

Speaker’s notes for this presentation are attached below each slide.

To access them, you may need to save the slides in PowerPoint and view/print in “notes view.”

Page 4: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

4

Agenda

The Australian Economy and recent Equity Market Performance

Commonwealth Bank: Track Record, Differentiators and

Growth Drivers

How is Commonwealth Bank Positioned Against theCurrent Outlook?

Page 5: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

The Australian Economy and recent Equity Market Performance

Page 6: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

6

Australia’s Economy has been Resilient

%%

%

Source: Commonwealth Research

V A L U E O F R E T A I LT R A D E

0

5

1 0

1 5

J u l -9 5 J u l -9 7 J u l -9 9 J u l -0 1

0

5

1 0

1 5

% p a% p a

R E L A T IV E G D P G R O W T H(a n n u a l % c h a n g e )

-3

0

3

6

9

S e p - 8 7 S e p - 9 0 S e p - 9 3 S e p - 9 6 S e p - 9 9 S e p - 0 2

%

U S

A u s t ra l ia

G D P(a n n u a l % ch a n g e )

-2

0

2

4

6

S e p -8 8 S e p -9 1 S e p -9 4 S e p -9 7 S e p -0 0

%

L o n g -ru na ve ra g e

P R O F I T S( % o f G D P )

8

1 2

1 6

2 0

S e p -9 0 S e p -9 3 S e p -9 6 S e p -9 9 S e p -0 2

C o rp o ra tep ro fi ts *

(p r i v n o n - fa rm )

S m a l l b u s in e s sin c o m e * * % G D P ( fc )

%

Page 7: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

7

Interest Rates & Credit Growth

Source: Commonwealth Research

CREDIT(3 month-ended annual rates)

-10

0

10

20

30

Jul-97Jul-98Jul-99Jul-00Jul-01Jul-02

Business HousingOther personal

%THE CASH RATE

4

5

6

7

Jul-98 Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02

CBA (f)

Market (f)(Jun ‘02)

Market (f)(Oct ‘02)

Page 8: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

8

0

2

4

6

Jul-86 Jul-89 Jul-92 Jul-95 Jul-98 Jul-01

0

15

30

45$bn '000

Owner-occupied(ex refinance)(rhs)

Investor(lhs)

50

100

150

200

250

Sep-86 Sep-90 Sep-94 Sep-98 Sep-02

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Mortgage rate (rhs)

All Ords (lhs)

House Prices* (lhs)

Housing Market

Source: Commonwealth Research

%Index

*CBA Est. House Price Index

EQUITIES AND HOUSE PRICES (RELATIVE PERFORMANCE)

HOUSING LOAN APPROVALS

Compound Annual Growth Rate: 1986-2002 2000-2002All Ordinaries Index: 6.2% -3.5% House Prices: 10.1% 20.5%

Page 9: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

9

Housing Market

Brisbane

Sydney

Melbourne

Darwin

Perth

Adelaide

Hobart

Canberra

House Price as Multiple of Gross Yearly AWE*

Source: CBA Research

AWE: average weekly earnings

Sep-02 Sep-99 ChangeSydney 10.6 8.5 25%Melbourne 6.7 5.3 26%Brisbane 6.0 4.8 25%Perth 5.0 4.6 9%Adelaide 5.0 3.8 32%Hobart 3.7 3.5 6%Canberra 5.6 4.5 24%Darwin 5.6 5.1 10%Total Australia 7.6 6.2 23%

Page 10: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

10

Housing Market

Source: Commonwealth Research, unless otherwise marked

$’00

0 %pa

%pa

Source: Residex

*assumes principal repayment ratio fixed at 1997/98 level

5

10

15

20

<30 31-50 51-70 71-100 >1005

10

15

20

% %

Income ($'000pa)

DEBT REPAYMENT LEVELS(% of h/hold income, Mar'02)

Source: Melbourne Institute

HOUSE PRICES

0

100

200

300

400

Mar-60 Mar-68 Mar-76 Mar-84 Mar-92 Mar-00

-20

0

20

40

60

Realgrow th (rhs)

Level(lhs)

SYDNEY HOUSE PRICES(deflated by the CPI)

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

190019121924193619481960197219841996

QI-QIII 2002 at annual rate

90th percentile

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS

0

10

20

30

Sep-97 Sep-99 Sep-01

0

4

8

12

Cumulative overpayment of principal*

(rhs)

Principal(% of motgage

payment) (lhs)

Page 11: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

11

Australian Equity Market Performance

Source: Deutsche Bank

As at close of business 15 October, 2002As at close of business 15 October, 2002

World Equity Market Performance(US$ Currency adjusted YTD%)

-6%-11% -14% -15% -17% -18%

-26%

-34% -34%

-62%-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

Indices

YT

D P

erfo

rman

ce

Page 12: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

12

Australian Banks - Credit Quality

BELGIUM

GERMANY

AUSTRALIA

NORWAY

FRANCEEURO RETAIL

DENMARK

EURO WHOLESALE

EURO INTL

ITALY

SPAIN

PORTUGAL

US FIDUCIARY/TRUST

UK

US MONEY CENTERS

US MID CAP REG

US LARGE CAP REG

SWEDEN

CANADA

SWISS

SINGAPORE

HK40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5

2002E Median Nonperforming Loans/Loans (%)

20

02

E M

ed

ian

Lo

an

Lo

ss

Re

se

rve

s/N

on

Pe

rfo

rmin

g L

oa

ns

(%

)

Developed Markets Median LLR/NPLs 100%

Developed Markets Median NPL/Loans 1.7%

Source: Merrill Lynch Global Banks Team

Global Asset Quality Map - Selected Regions/Segments (2002E)

Page 13: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

13

Australian Banks - Shareholder Value Performance

1

312

25

CBA ANZWBC NAB

Ind

ex

Source: Oliver Wyman & Co Shareholder Performance Index, 2002. Period covered by index 1 Jan 1997 - 31 Dec 2001

Global Five Year Shareholder Performance Index

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Page 14: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

Commonwealth Bank:

Our Track Record

Our Differentiators and Growth Drivers

Page 15: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

15

Recent Result Highlights Solid Earnings Growth

Reported Profit up 10.7% to $2,655m

Cash Profit up 10.6% to $2,501m

Cash EPS up 10.1% to $1.97

Costs steady year on year

Improved productivity and cost to income ratio

High dividend payout ratio relative to peers

Capital position remains strong

Credit Quality and Provisioning remains strong

Page 16: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

16

Net Profit*

* Net Profit after tax and outside equity interest - cash basis. Excludes appraisal value uplift and goodwill amortisation.

1,109 1,153

$mill

ion

1,1921,309

Full Year = 2,262 Full Year = 2,501

875 918 9751092

156164

12197

7871 96

120

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Dec 2000 Jun 2001 Dec 2001 Jun-02

Banking Life & Super Funds Management

Page 17: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

17

ROE and EPS

Dec 00 Jun 01 Dec 01 Jun 02

9488

91

103

12.46%13.10% 13.14%

14.61%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

EPS

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

ROE

Earnings per share - cash basis ROE - cash basis

Page 18: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

18

Dividend Growth

20 20 24

36 3845 46 49

58 6168

20 22

36

4652

57 58

66

75

82

72

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Ce

nts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

%

First Half Second Half Payout Ratio

Page 19: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

19

Asset Quality Overview

First Half Second Half

Charge for Bad & Doubtful Debts (6 months) $290m $159m

Charge for Bad & Doubtful Debts to RWA(annualised)

0.42% 0.23%

Impaired Assets (net of interest reserved) $983m $884m

Specific Provisions $309m $270m

General Provision $1,334m $1,356m

General Provision to RWA 0.96% 0.96%

Page 20: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

20

Current Operating Outlook 2002-2003

Core business remains sound

Equity market volatility has continued in the first quarter of 2003

Additional costs of governance to be included in first half result:

expensing of employee option plans

restructuring provisions taken above the line

Page 21: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

Commonwealth Bank: Differentiators

Page 22: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

22

Segmentation: Aligned Domestic Structure with Customer Needs

Retail BankingServices

PremiumFinancialServices

Investment &InsuranceServices

Institutional &BusinessServices

CustomerGroup

Personalbankingcustomers,Small businessbankingcustomers

Premium clientsincludingprofessionalsand business

Agents, Brokers,Financial Advisers

Institutional,Corporate,Commercialbusinesscustomers

Channels Branch, Ezy-Banking, ATM,EFTPOS,Phone, On-line,Mortgagebrokers

Relationshipmanagers,Premiuminvestmentcentres, phone,on-line.

Agents, Branches,Brokers, FinancialAdvisers, Premiuminvestment centres,DirectDealerships,Institutional Clients

Relationshipmanagers,Business centres

Support Finance, Risk Management, Human Resources, Strategy, Technology, Legal, Secretariat

Page 23: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

23

Jun 2001 Dec 2001 Jun 2002

Home Loans^ 20.4% 20.1% 20.1% (Residentially Secured)

Credit Cards 21.4% 21.4% 21.6%

Retail Deposits^ 24.0% 24.1% 24.2%

Retail FUM (Plan for Life) 16.1% 16.1% 15.7%

Superannuation/Annuities 16.3% 16.4% 16.4%

Retail Broking 9.0% 8.5% 9.2%

Inforce Premiums 14.4% 14.5% 14.4%

^ Due to delays in implementing new APRA reporting methodology, no market share data has been available since March 2002.

Australian Market Share

Scale : Strong Market Share Positioning

Rank

1

1

1

1

1

2

2

*

*

* March 2002 data

*

*

Page 24: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

24

Australia’s Most Accessible Bank Over 146m DirectBanking calls

Almost 2m registered NetBank users

Around 126,000 EFTPOS terminals

Over 10,000 third party advisers, brokers and agents

Around 4,000 ATMs

Nearly 4,000 postal and private agencies

Over 1,000 branches

Over 700 EzyBanking store locations

Around 700 personal lenders

Over 700 financial planners

Around 200 mobile bankers

Over 70 business banking centres

13 premium banking centres

Customer Choice

Bra

nch

es

ATM

s

EFTPOS

Agencies

3rd

Par

ty

Premium

Banking

EzyBanking

NetB

ank

Business Banking

Direct

Banki

ng

Mobile

Banking

Financial Planners

Per

son

al

Len

der

s

Page 25: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

25

Brand: We Have More Relationships Than Any Other Financial Institution

Source: Research International, April 2002

Popularity of Australian Financial Institutions….

* Customers under 25 years of age^ Excludes Youth customers

39 40

21

14

27

22

42

53

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Overall Youth* Premium Retail^

%

NAB Group ANZ Group CBA Group Westpac Group St George Group

Page 26: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

26

Brand: We Achieve Consistently High Ratings from Retail Customers

Source: Research International Brand Monitor

Average across all brand attributes for CBA Vs average of ANZ, NAB and Westpac%

• In touch with its customers

• Is leading the way

• Is doing new and different things

• Has knowledgable and competent staff

• Has friendly and reliable staff

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

4 0

J a n'0 1

M a r M a y J u l S e p N o v J a n' 0 2

M a r M a y J u l

C B A O t h e r M a jo r B a n k s

Page 27: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

27

Strong Corporate Governance Policies

CEO is the only Executive Director

Roles of CEO and Chairman separate

Limits on Board members’ terms of office

Nominations Committee establish criteria for Board appointment

Board induction, continuing education and succession planning

Annual assessment of performance

Audit Committee independence

Limits placed on share trading

Options eliminated from executive remuneration

Closure of Directors’ retirement scheme

Policy that covers non-audit work conducted by External Auditor

Rotation of External Audit Partner

Page 28: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

Commonwealth Bank: Growth Drivers

Page 29: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

29

Established in All Components of the Wealth Management Value Chain

Investment Products

Sales Teams / BDMs

CommInsure

Sales Teams / BDMs

Retail Banking Services (Branch Network)

Third PartyPremiumFinancial Services

Institutional&

Business Services

OnlineDirect(Mail &

Telemarketing)

Customers

Commonwealth Bank Retail Distribution Channels (Sales & Advice)

Product Manufacturer

Banking Products

Sales Teams

Third Party

Non Commonwealth Bank Channels

Page 30: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

30

Brand - Colonial First State

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

7.30

7.45

7.60

7.75

7.90

8.05

8.20

8.35

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

34%

36%

38%

40%

42%

44%

AMP

AMP

AMP

BTColonial

or Colonial

First State

Colonial First State

AXA

Colonial First State

ING

Consumer Brand Awareness - Unaided

3

Consumer Brand Awareness - Total

Consumer Purchase Intention

2

2

Adviser Brand Awareness - Overall Opinion of Organisation

Colonial First State

Platinum

1

Perpetual

Source: Consumer Charts - Newspoll June 2002; Source: Adviser Chart - ASSIRT Service Level Survey 2002

Page 31: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

31

29 28

2731 33 33

1723

24 26 25

2722

181921

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Dec 2000 Jun 2001 Dec 2001 Jun 2002

$bill

ions

Australian Retail Funds Australian Wholesale Funds

International Funds Internal Life Assets

Average FUM

Funds Under Management

$103bn

Page 32: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

32

Innovation through FirstChoice Masterfund Product

You and your Financial Adviser

Colonial First State FirstChoice

Your financial future

Structure

Value

Simplicity

Service

Investments PensionEmployerSuper

PersonalSuper

Page 33: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

33

Premium and Business Opportunity

Business (Middle Market)

Premium Customers

Source : Commonwealth Bank illustration

Current market share

Natural market share

Current number of premium customers

Potential number of premium customers

Page 34: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

34

Premium: A Differentiated Business Model

BankingPlatform

BrokingPlatform

Borrowing Services

Lending Services

Transactional Banking

Advisory Services

Direct Investment

Indirect Investment

Debt Products

Equity Products

Personal Banker

Commercial Banker

Investment/Equities Expert

Event BasedAdviser

InsuranceExpert

Client

Primary Relationship ManagerSecondary Relationship Manager & specialised advice

Page 35: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

35

Business: Increasing Cross-sell

Corporate Segment Example Bundled Products Example

26%

Working Capital

Services

26% of corporate clients use products from all three areas

Financial Markets

Corporate Finance

Business Banking

Financial Markets

Working Capital

Services

Interest rate risk managementFX productsInvestments

Bill financingCash funded loansOverdraftsTransaction services

Page 36: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

36

Productivity: Focus on Efficiency

Remove all remaining back-office functions from branches

Streamline home loan processes

Streamline Business Banking processes

Rationalise investment products & systems

Organisational design

...to achieve:

• A better service experience for customers, through greatly improved turnaround times

• Elimination of duplication and inefficiencies

• Annual benefits from FY 2004, following an incremental net cost of ~$120m in FY2003

Five productivity initiatives...

Page 37: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

How is Commonwealth Bank Positioned Against the Current Outlook?

Credit Quality

Capital Position

Investment Market Volatility

Productivity Focus

Page 38: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

38

Commonwealth Bank Group: Low Credit Risk Profile Housing Loans

53% of total loan book* Loan loss rate of < 3bps in 17 of last 20 years 55% average loan to valuation ratio Extensive stress testing of loan portfolio undertaken

Asset Quality Impaired assets to risk weighted assets of less than 1%

in line with domestic peers Relatively low bad debt expense Well provisioned

* Excluding securitisation (or 57% including securitisation)

Page 39: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

39

Total Individually Rated* Exposures

Credit Risk

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Dec 2000 Jun 2001 Dec 2001 Jun 2002

Other BBB A AAA/AA

61%InvestmentGrade

* Corporate and business lending

Page 40: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

40

Investment Grade Exposures by Size

$0-$50m

$50m-$100m

$100m-$250m

$250m-$500m

$500m-$750m

$750m-$1bn

>$1bn

8 customers

9 customers

13 customers

66 customers

99 customers

101 customers

>15,000 customers

Page 41: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

41

Offshore* Loans & Advances by Industry

Other Commercial

Government Agriculture

Finance

Construction

Personal

Leasing

* Excludes New Zealand (ASB )

Page 42: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

42

Aggregate Provisions

* Includes Colonial

$mill

ion

s

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Jun94

Jun95

Jun96

Jun97

Jun98

Jun99

Jun00*

Jun01*

Jun02

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

%

General Provision

Specific Prov ision

Total Provisions/Gross Impaired Assets (axis on right)

Page 43: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

43

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jun1994

Jun1995

Jun1996

Jun1997

Jun1998

Jun1999

Jun2000

Jun2001

Jun2002

0

6

12

18

24

30

36

%

Commowealth Bank Group (Other Countries)*

Commonwealth Bank Group (Australia)*

Net Impaired assets as % of Total Shareholder Equity* (axis on right)

Net Impaired Assets

* Excluding Colonial prior to 30 June 2000

$mill

ion

s

Asian Crisis

Acquisition of Colonial

Two Accounts

%

Page 44: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

44

Non-Accrual Loans by Size

$5m<$10m $50m<$100m

$20m<$50m$10m<$20m

>=$100m<$5m1

Customer

2Customers

4Customers4

Customers

12Customers

As at 30 June 2002

Page 45: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

45

Non Accruals by Industry

Mining

Manufacturing

Agriculture

Property & Business Services

Finance

Transport

Government

Other

As at 30 June 2002

Accommodation, Cafes & Restaurants

Page 46: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

46

Industry Exposures

Insurance

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

Services to Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Mining

-1.02.03.04.05.0

Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02

0%3%6%9%12%15%

Agriculture

-1.0

2.03.0

4.05.0

Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02

0%3%

6%9%

12%15%

Transport and Storage

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

Metal Mining & Manufacturing

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

Exposure to selected industries

Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%$b $b $b

$b $b$b

Balances $m % Portfolio % Troublesome % ImpairedLeft Axis: Right Axis:

Page 47: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

47

0.00%

4.00%

8.00%

12.00%

Tier 1 Capital Total Capital

Strong Capital Position

2H01 1H02 2H02 2H01 1H02 2H02

TotalTier 1

CBA Target Range

Strong credit ratings

Shareholders equity up $637m

Strong regulatory capital ratios

Payments to shareholders of $1,622m

Page 48: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

48

Economic Equity

Regulatory capital ratios can be misleading:

Risk weights are not risk aligned

Capital required for residential mortgages is overstated

No operational risk charge

No value placed on earnings and risk diversification

Internal models show the Group is strongly capitalised

Page 49: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

49

Risk* GroupUnit Linked

Shareholder Funds in Life Insurance Companies

Income

$0.5 billion$2.1 billion

53%47%

Growth

$2.6 billion

67% 33% 50% 50%

*Risk includes traditional, investment account, annuities, personal risk and group risk.

Page 50: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

50

Greater Cost Control & Targeted Investment in Priority Areas

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

Group Cost to Income Ratio (Normalised)

Upgrading infrastructure to improve service

Developing and managing relationships with all customers

Product simplification & rationalisation; packaging products for premium customers, and manufacture innovative new products

%

Focus on achieving further productivity improvements...

...by reducing costs and spending to improve service quality and drive revenue growth

Page 51: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

51

Strategic Outcomes

Business Driver Profile 5-Year Plan

Growth in market share Major product groups At or above market

Margins Comparable for Continuing decline business mix

Sources of income Comparable financial Continued shift institutions toward non-interest

Costs Reduction in cost- 3%-6% p.a.income - best practice productivity change

Capital Management Optimise regulatory Rating AA- capital & maintain rating

Total Shareholder Return Relative to peers Top Quartile

Page 52: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

52

Summary

The Australian Economy and the Australian Equities Market Have been relatively resilient Economic outlook remains positive in global context

Commonwealth Bank’s strengths include: Our track record Our differentiators Our growth drivers

How is Commonwealth Bank Positioned Against the Current Outlook?

Low credit risk profile Strong capital position Productivity focus

Page 53: Investor Roadshow Presentation: David Murray

November 2002 Investor Roadshow

David Murray

Chief Executive Officer

Stuart Grimshaw

Chief Financial Officer

www.commbank.com.au