invited paper, demography and labour economics section second russian economic congress suzdal, 18...
TRANSCRIPT
Invited Paper, Demography and Labour Economics Section
Second Russian Economic CongressSuzdal, 18 February 2013
Dr Judith ShapiroDepartment of Economics
1
The Disciplines of Demography and Economics: Can We and Should We Narrow the Gap?
Outline of key points• Meade, Brass, Glass (1960) goal not yet achieved:
Closer co-operation of demography and economics• Connected origins of demography and economics: • Graunt, Petty: London, science and Baconian empiricism
• Separate Disciplines as 19th Century Development • Economics, theory first; Demography, highly empirical
• 20th Century: Demography finds Sociology• Sociology and Economics: values first of incentives?
• 21st Century: As in 1960, need closer co-operation• New as key policy challenges: Migration, labour force• Little room for luxury of separate intellectual worlds
2
John Graunt (1620-1674) Demography
William Petty (1623-1687) : Economics
Graunt’s Mortality Table: 1662
Demography highly empirical…
Economics has been different, is evolving:Colander 2005 [US data]
Very important Moderately UnimportantDon’t know
Other parallel problems:Demogaphers’ Period versus Cohort
• Analogy in Economics: Time Series and Cross Section• Time series and cross section may yield different results. • Good recent example: Womens’ status and the birth rate
• Time-series : direct relationship• Cross-section: inverse! [Ahn and Mira, 2002 + others]
• May have to use cross-section to estimate cohort. • Many demographic magnitudes not popularly understood
as cross-section estimates of cohort values: e.g: Total Fertility Rate, Life Expectancy
United for policy needs?
• Russia, 2013: Past crisis of mortality and fertility• Migration and the labour force move to centre stage• Neither discipline has priority here• Theory and empirical evidence both needed • Co-operation requires understanding each others’
traditions, borrowing fruitfully• Does not require or benefit from union • Partnership, joint publication: a giant step • Both disciplines, and policy, have much to gain